By Paul Wightman

The relevance of NYMEX WTI and the United States crude complex is continuing to rise, with higher trading volumes outside core U.S. trading hours signaling further international participation in the benchmark. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s oil refiners have turned to alternative crude oil grades in record volumes as a way of diversifying away from long-term crude supplies from Russia. One of the major beneficiaries would appear to be the U.S., with European refiners buying higher volumes of North American crude grades.

The push to export crude oil from the U.S. after a 40-year ban resulted from burgeoning production and a race to build infrastructure to efficiently deliver it to market. Canadian and U.S. crude production has grown from a low of 8 million barrels per day in 2008 to around 19 million barrels per day in 2025. WTI Midland produced in the U.S. was added to the Brent basket in 2023, formally linking the price of Brent with WTI. This change was very supportive for the trading of NYMEX WTI Crude Oil futures and increasing global interest in WTI, boosted trading volumes of WTI during European hours, and created a more direct price link between the U.S. and Brent.

The Rise of NYMEX WTI and Its Impact Globally

The scale of U.S. export capability has meant that U.S. crude oil prices are playing an increasingly important role in the global crude oil system. The WTI-Brent futures spread reflects the price spread between U.S. crude oil and the North Sea. The buildout of export infrastructure in the U.S. has been beneficial to the WTI-Brent spread, which has risen from a low of $25 per barrel to trade around -$4 per barrel under Brent at the end of 2025. Trading volumes in the WTI-Brent futures spread, which are typically viewed as a hedging vehicle for the rising volumes of U.S. crude internationally, have remained robust with an average daily volume of around 61,000 contracts through December 2025 – a five-fold increase on the 2024 levels, based on the latest CME Group data.

While there have been some new oil discoveries in the North Sea in recent years – such as Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg – that have boosted total North Sea production, this has seemingly had little direct effect on the pricing mechanism for Dated Brent, which relies on production from Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll crude oils plus delivered cargoes of WTI Midland. Production for the core North Sea grades (excluding WTI Midland) that underpin Brent have experienced mixed fortunes in recent years with total volumes falling by around 100,000 barrels per day in the past 12 months to December 2025.

At the same time, the volume of U.S. crude oil exported to northwest Europe has continued to rise, which has been supportive for the Brent benchmark. The total volume of U.S. crude oil sold into Europe has reached more than double the volume of oil that is produced at the North Sea crude oil terminals for Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll. In the latest data from shipping analytics firm Vortexa, total volumes of U.S. crude oil exported to NW Europe reached around 1.1 million barrels per day compared to around 550,000 barrels per day for the crude oils which make up the current Brent basket.

European refiners have benefited from the increased availability of light sweet U.S. crude oil grades and, in some cases, have been able to replace the long-standing baseload crude grades from places like Russia with U.S. alternatives. This has been beneficial to the growth of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures, and other U.S. crudes like Argus MEH which trade relative to the U.S. crude futures marker. Traders note that this has been a major boost to the success of WTI Midland. It is generally considered to be a good quality crude grade that is able to produce a larger quantity of road transport fuels such as diesel and gasoline, both of which are important fuels used in the European markets.

All of these changes are considered to be supportive to the growth of NYMEX WTI futures and broader U.S. crude complex as a global benchmark.

A Quarter of All NYMEX WTI Futures Now Trade During European Hours

The latest data from CME Group shows that there is a growing volume of NYMEX WTI Crude Oil futures being traded during non-U.S. hours. Trading volumes during the London day and before the U.S. trading session reached around 200,000 barrels per day in 2025, which is an increase of 16% from 2024 levels. Importantly, there were three months in 2025 where volume traded in European hours exceeded 200,000 contracts per day, with volumes reaching around 25% of the total volume traded. The inclusion of WTI in the Dated Brent basket is one reason behind the WTI volume increase in European hours, analysts say.

The boom in exports to Europe has also given rise to increased trading of CME Group WTI Midland quality futures, priced as a basis to NYMEX WTI at Cushing. Trading in the Argus WTI Houston vs. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (NYMEX HTT) during the European morning hit a new high in October 2025, up more than three times the prior high. The growth signals increasing liquidity and interest from regional refiners in managing quality and location risk around WTI Midland.

The Rise of Grades: Hedging a Differential to WTI

The role that WTI Midland is playing in the North Sea price assessment process has been increasing for the past several months, with a higher proportion of U.S. crude cargoes setting the price of Dated Brent compared to other grades in the North Sea. Traded volumes in WTI Midland and WTI Houston vs NYMEX WTI have continued to increase sharply since U.S. crude oil was permitted for export in 2016, highlighting the growing appetite for risk management tools for managing price volatility along the U.S. Gulf Coast. All of these products are tied back to NYMEX WTI crude oil futures, which has attracted the interest of international markets.

The latest data shows that total volume of the WTI Houston and WTI Midland products vs NYMEX WTI has increased from around 15,900 contracts per day in 2024 to around 18,000 contracts per day in 2025. This represents an increase of around 14% year-on-year. Open interest, a key measure of the success of a futures contract, reached around 705,000 contracts at the end of December 2025, which is close to an all-time record level.

These developments are helping to elevate WTI Midland to one of the leading globally significant swing barrels, especially for Northwest European refiners. The light sweet nature of WTI Midland is one reason why the crude grade has become a popular choice for European refiners. Typically, European refiners hedge their index purchases of WTI Midland from the Gulf Coast by buying NYMEX WTI plus the Argus WTI Houston (HTT) differential and selling NYMEX Brent futures.

U.S. Gulf Coast PADD III: Crude Production Achieves Record Output

The shale revolution has been one major factor contributing to the rise in output. The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that total U.S. crude production across the five key Petroleum Districts reached around 14 million barrels per day. Crude production in the crucial Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD III), which includes the Permian Basin crude WTI Midland, reached over 10.2 million barrels per day, an all-time high level during Q4 2025.

Growth in International Use of NYMEX WTI Continues

The increasing production of U.S. crude has been beneficial for the global oil markets and has allowed the U.S. to play a more pivotal role in the pricing of crude oil globally. Its export volumes have risen sharply in recent years and more cargoes are heading to Europe and Asia, which has brought more traders into the market to trade the price of WTI crude oil. The international adoption of NYMEX WTI as a global benchmark is expanding with many more refiners across Europe using it to price crude cargoes into the region. As higher volumes of U.S. crude oil exports are refined outside the U.S., the adoption of the U.S. benchmark continues to grow.

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