Business
FIIs ease bearish bets post-Budget, but charts warn of range-bound Nifty: Anand James
Edited excerpts from a chat:
FII shorts in Nifty futures have been a worrying trend. How has the data changed after the Budget?
Since Budget, FII’s longs in the index future segment have been on a rising trend, while the shorts have been on a declining trend. This pattern was rarely seen in the last six months, and assumes importance hinting at a potential towards FIIs changing their unilaterally bearish stance. At 43462 contracts, their longs in the index future segment is the highest since late January, and sub 2 lakh contracts level on the short side held by FIIS now, was last seen in the early January period. The consequent long short ratio of 18 levels was last seen on 1st of December, but at that point, the longs were just 26k, and shorts were just 1.1 lakh. In other words, FIIs are still short heavy, and the 3% boosting of shorts on Friday suggest that we need more days of reduction in shorts or a larger reduction in size, to establish it as a trend, and project a rise in Nifty.The news heavy week saw Nifty ending around 1.5% higher. What are the charts indicating in terms of how sustainable the rally can be this month and whether the momentum can take us to record high once again?
Despite the positive weekly close, it must not be forgotten that Nifty failed to sustain the peaks seen on 3rd February, which saw an up gapped opening. Also, on Friday, we came close to seeing Nifty filling the break away gap. This is certainly an indication that momentum has weakened, and we have most likely slipped on to a range trading bias. That said, that Nifty did not stretch all the way to 25450, in order to fill the gap, and that a close in the vicinity of 25700 was seen in the last three days, suggesting that buying interest is still around. Alternatively, a repeat fall into the 25496-450 territory should push the trend into a sideways mode signalled already or announce the re-dominance of bears.
IT stocks hogged limelight for the wrong reasons. Is the dip here a buy or do you see more pain ahead?
Following the recent selloff, the Nifty IT index is likely to look for support around the SuperTrend level near 35,100, which also aligns with a rising trendline. However, the emergence of a bearish crossover on the weekly MACD is weighing on near-term upside potential. Failure to sustain above the 35,100–35,000 zone could lead to further downside toward 34,320 (200‑week moving average), with an extended decline possible toward 33,500.
Key constituents such as TCS, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra have reversed from their recent highs on both daily and weekly charts, accompanied by strong volumes, indicating persistent profit booking. Meanwhile, Wipro and LTI Mindtree have also registered bearish MACD crossovers on the weekly timeframe, reinforcing the risk of deeper corrections. Heavyweights TCS, Infosys, and Wipro, which collectively make up nearly 70% of the index weight, have convincingly slipped below their 100‑day and 200‑day moving averages, pointing to underlying weakness in the index. Although HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra continue to trade above key moving average supports, any breakdown in these stocks could further intensify downside pressure on the Nifty IT index.
HAL was one of the biggest losers in the week. Do you see some buying support coming in at lower levels?
Though it was only two days of sharp fall, a sideways range has been broken, projecting a large downsides, having also closed below super trend. However, the stock has slipped 15%, after testing the 200 day SMA. It appears to have formed an inside bar on Friday, when a positive oscillator divergence was also seen. This fills up with hope that despite all the gloom, some green shoots are visible and a swing higher to 4140-4236 may be played for, with risk restricted to Friday’s low.
Consumer durables have been on an uptrend with Amber shares up xx% in the week. How should one trade the momentum?
Ideally, the stock looks poised for 7082, the 200 day SMA. However, oscillators appear to be signalling an exhaustion in momentum, especially as the stock is approaching a horizontal resistance coinciding with January’s peaks. This warns us to take some money off the table, or put 6410 as stop for existing longs.
Give us your top ideas for the week ahead.
FINCABLES (CMP: 771)
View: Buy
Target: 820
SL: 742
Price has built a base around 730–745 and is rebounding toward the declining 100 DSMA near 779 which coincides with the SuperTrend level, first meaningful resistance. A daily close above 780–785 would signal a range breakout, opening 815–820. Failure to clear the 100 DSMA keeps the stock in a sideways-to-down bias within the 745–780 band. Volume has ticked up on the bounce, hinting at improving momentum, but overhead supply remains heavy. Bias turns positive only on strong close above 785 with volume; below 742, risk shifts back to the downside toward 730, 705 levels.
LICI (CMP: 901)
View: Buy
Target: 930-950
SL: 864
A strong breakout candle with heavy volume has pushed price above the recent supply zone 880–890, and the SuperTrend level of 848 turning it into immediate support. Momentum has improved with RSI near 70 and MACD has turned up with a fresh positive cross in daily scale. In the weekly scale, we have seen Supertrend break and the MACD is about to see bullish crossover, confirming trend acceleration. Bias stays positive while above 890. A decisive close above 930 can extend the move to 950; failure to hold 890 would weaken momentum, risking a retrace toward 864-860.
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Oil Makes Record Weekly Gains As Strait of Hormuz Stays Shut
1518 ET – Crude futures rise to their highest level in two-and-a-half years as the conflict in the Persian Gulf continues, keeping shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill and cutting off oil supply. WTI settles up 12% at $90.90 a barrel and Brent rises 8.5% to $92.69 a barrel. Weekly gains are 36% for WTI and 27% for Brent, the largest percentage increases on records back to 1983 and 1991, respectively. “Uncertainty is high and rising but based on all the available information at hand, it doesn’t look like the worst is behind us yet,” Amarpreet Singh of Barclays says in a note. “If this situation persists for another couple of weeks, Brent could potentially test $120 a barrel.” (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Oil Extends Gains As Persian Gulf Conflict Drags On
1147 ET – Oil futures extend gains with the Middle East conflict in its seventh day and no sign of the critical Strait of Hormuz being reopened to shipping. “We’re in a situation where the lack of clarity on the timing of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz is stoking a tremendous amount of fear in the market,” says Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth US. Production shut-ins by Iraq and Kuwait as their storage capacity fills up are fairly small, but may have taken the market by surprise coming so soon, Babin says. “I think they are down the road for the larger producers, but this was a big thing.” WTI is up 9.4% at $88.63 a barrel and Brent is up 6.4% at $90.87.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Brent Crude Hits $90 A Barrel As Supply Worries Grow
0909 ET – Crude futures extend gains ahead of the weekend with Brent hitting $90 a barrel level for the first time since April 2024 as oil remains hemmed in by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Citi analysts estimate the market is losing between 7 million and 11 million barrels a day of crude oil, and from 4 million to 5 million barrels a day of products, largely due to lack of flows through the strait. “We continue to see $80-$90 a barrel Brent for at least the next 1-2 weeks, before we see prices moderating in 2Q26,” they say in a note. “We assume that Hormuz flows gradually return in the latter half of March, in the base case of military operations winding down.” Brent is up 5.3% at $89.92 a barrel. WTI rises 8.2% to $87.67.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Oil Stranded in Strait of Hormuz Has Few Routes Out
1344 GMT – Around 16 million barrels a day of crude oil is trapped as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stops, Vortexa analysis shows. Another route for the oil could be down Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This pipeline can theoretically move around 7 million barrels a day, but so far flows have been much lower, Vortexa’s Rohit Rathod writes. Another alternative is the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which moves crude from Habshan to Fujairah. The pipeline could move around 1.5 million barrels a day, but operations have been disrupted by the conflict, Rathod says. Brent crude trades up 4.1% to $88.90 a barrel, while WTI jumps 6.7% to $85.93 a barrel. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Business
Oil Prices Close Above $90 Amid Fears of Spreading Mideast War
The steepest oil-price runup since the early days of the Ukraine war sent benchmark oil prices above $90 a barrel on Friday, a signal that traders are increasingly fearful that the spiraling Middle East conflict could spark an energy shock.
Futures for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped more 8.5% Friday to 92.69 a barrel, its highest level since 2023. The one-day surge was the sharpest since March 2022. For the week, the price rose 27%, a record.
WTI crude, the U.S. benchmark, surged by 12%, its biggest daily jump since 2020. U.S. crude finished the day at $90.90 a barrel, up a record 36% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
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Thailand’s Ministry of Finance, Bank of Thailand, and IMF on 2026 Annual Meetings Preparations
Thailand’s Ministry of Finance and IMF reviewed preparations for the 2026 Annual Meetings, highlighting progress in logistics, security, and facilities at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok.
📅 Event & Timing: Thailand will host the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group from October 12–18, 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok.
🤝 Organizers: The Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Thailand, and the IMF are jointly overseeing preparations.
🏗️ Preparations: Progress has been made in logistics, construction, security, and branding, with strong coordination among stakeholders.
🌍 Bangkok’s Role: The QSNCC is praised as a world-class facility, reinforcing Bangkok’s position as a regional hub for international conferences.
Bangkok, Thailand — March 4, 2026: Thailand’s Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Thailand, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today took stock of preparations for the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, which Thailand will host from October 12–18, 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC). The discussion brought together Dr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas; Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance; Mr. Vitai Ratanakorn, Governor of the Bank of Thailand; and Dr. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF.
The authorities and the IMF were very pleased with progress in many areas, including construction, security, and branding. Preparations are advancing well, supported by close coordination between all stakeholders. They praised the world-class facilities at QSNCC, which stands ready to host the Meetings, and highlighted Bangkok’s role as a leading regional hub for international conferences. The partnership between the IMF and the authorities has been excellent and will ensure successful and impactful meetings. The 2026 Annual Meetings will mark the second time Thailand hosts the Annual Meetings at QSNCC, following the 1991 Meetings.
Dr. Nitithanprapas states that Thailand’s selection as the host country once again represents an important opportunity for the nation. “Hosting the 2026 Annual Meetings at the QSNCC, the venue built specifically for hosting 1991 Annual Meetings, symbolizes not only Thailand’s significant progress made over the past 35 years but also its continued role as a pillar of stability and a hub for global economic cooperation,” Dr. Nitithanprapas said. “Importantly, Thailand is only the third country outside of the United States to host this ‘Olympics of Finance’ more than once, further showcasing Thailand’s capacity to organize world-class events.”
Source : https://www.bot.or.th/en/news-and-media/news/news-20260304.html
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