Moviegoers will find a wealth of familiar franchises on the big screen this year. It may not be enough to save the box office.

New entrants from popular film series dominate the movie slate in the next 12 months. The 2026 schedule features releases from Star Wars, Marvel, DC Comics, Toy Story, Super Mario Bros., Hunger Games, Scream, Scary Movie, Minions, Dune and Jumanji.

Intellectual property like these established franchises has long been an important part of Hollywood, but they are increasingly vital in 2026 as the theatrical industry seeks to break the $10 billion mark at the domestic box office for the first time since the pandemic.

But some big-name installments aren’t drawing the crowds they used to, and industry insiders worry the $10 billion benchmark may be beyond reach this year for a post-pandemic industry that has been rocked by production shutdowns, the consolidation of major studios and a shift in consumer viewing toward streaming.

“The reliance on franchises has been a little trickier the last few years,” said Alicia Reese, senior vice president of equity research for Wedbush. “Yes, there’s a level of certainty … but it’s not a home run. It’s never going to be a home run from here on out, because people are pickier than they used to be. They know what’s coming. Word of mouth means more than ever.”

Since 2010, the top 10 highest-grossing films domestically have predominantly been franchise films, according to data from Comscore. During that time, between eight and 10 of the films released each year were a sequel, prequel or remake. The only outlier was 2020, when seven of the top 10 films were franchise-based, due to the number of films that were delayed during Covid shutdowns.

And, of course, a number of the original titles that broke into the top 10 have become franchises themselves in the last two decades. Look at “Avatar,” “Frozen,” “Zootopia,” “Inside Out,” “Secret Life of Pets” and “Ted.”

“Studios clearly feel that audience comfortability — with going to see a movie where they already, in some sense, know what they’re getting before they walk into the auditorium — is a bet worth making,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.

As studios lean into the safety of a built-in audience, box office sales become more reliant on the success of these franchise films.

Prior to the pandemic, during the span of 2010 to 2019, top 10 films represented an average of 30% of the total domestic box office annually. Outpacing the group was the 2019 calendar where these films accounted for nearly 40% of the annual haul. All 10 films that year were IP-driven, and nine of them generated more than $1 billion globally.

Post-pandemic, the average percentage that the top 10 films represent of the total annual domestic box office is 44%.

“I remember having this conversation the late ’90s,” said Eric Handler, managing director and senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners. “The box office has for the last several decades been franchise-driven. That’s just the way it is. Why? It’s because when there’s familiarity with content, there’s a greater chance that people will show up because there’s an affinity towards a particular franchise and it’s already known.”

Now, Hollywood is facing the harsh reality of what happens when franchises fall flat.

Two of the most anticipated films to hit theaters last year — Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” — underperformed expectations.

The first “Wicked” movie, released in 2024, tallied $475 million at the domestical box office and a little more than $750 million globally during its run in theaters. A year later, the second part of the duology collected just under $350 million from the U.S. and Canada and about $525 million globally.

Box office analysts attributed the smaller ticket sales to a drop in quality between the first and second installments. “Wicked” generated an 88% “Fresh” rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, while “Wicked: For Good” scored a 66% rating.

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” had even bigger shoes to fill. James Cameron’s breakout hit “Avatar,” released in 2009, snared $785.2 million domestically and $2.1 billion internationally. It remains the highest-grossing film of all-time at the box office with $2.9 billion in ticket sales.

More than a decade later, “Avatar: The Way of Water” hit theaters, generating $688.8 million domestically and $1.6 billion internationally, bringing its total haul to $2.3 billion.

But when “Fire and Ash” hit theaters in December, consumer demand wasn’t nearly as high and the allure of Cameron’s ground-breaking filming techniques had worn off. “Fire and Ash,” which is still playing in theaters, has tallied just $378.5 million domestically and passed $1 billion internationally as of Sunday.

Wedbush’s Reese said part of the problem can be trying to mine too much from any one franchise.

Take, for example, Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. The film franchise has been a box office darling for nearly two decades, but struggled in the wake of the climactic “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019 to produce consistent quality sequels. At the same time, it flooded the streaming market with a dozen new television series.

“If you try to stretch it too thin and you don’t put the same level of attention to details that it’s not going to work,” Reese said.

There’s also risk in trying to broaden a niche interest into a global success, she said. Do filmmakers stay close to the original IP and play to its base, or do they shoot for a wider audience and a bigger splash?

Reese noted Warner Bros.’ new Dune franchise, starring Timothée Chalamet and directed by Denis Villeneuve, is a good example of a series that’s threaded the needle, landing with fans who already loved the books at the same time that it drew in new crowds.

“If it’s a good film, it’ll service that core audience and it might bring in some newbies and have that broader appeal,” Reese said. “But, if you try to get that broad appeal and you’re not servicing your core fans, they will turn against you. That will spell huge problems, because if they don’t like the film, everyone else is going to find out about it, and they won’t go either, right?”

Because of this, studios and theater owners have started “eventizing” film releases — promoting the films as must-see in premium large format theaters like IMAX, Dolby Cinema, Screen X or 4DX; selling specialty merchandise like popcorn buckets and drink sippers as well as limited-time food options; and hosting events associated with a film release like friendship bracelet making for the Taylor Swift concert film release.

Often, the films that are easiest to promote in this way are those that are based on known franchises.

Last year, when “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” hit theaters, Alamo Drafthouse hosted fancy dress screenings, encouraging moviegoers to arrive in period-appropriate attire. The event included a costume contest and themed drinks and food. The theater chain has hosted similar events for screenings of James Bond and Star Wars films and will host one for the upcoming “Wuthering Heights” adaptation.

And these franchises aren’t just showing up in movie theaters. Many major film studios also have their own consumer product and experience divisions, which rely on theatrical content to not only sell merchandise but fuel theme park designs, live events and even cruise ships.

Fans of franchises are hungry for products that celebrate and show off their favorite characters or movie moments. This can manifest in the form of apparel, bedding, kitchen utensils and bumper stickers all the way to collectibles, luxury watches, electronics and seasonal products like ornaments.

Disney has built theme park lands, rides and cruise ship elements based on Star Wars, Marvel, The Muppets, Pixar films like Cars, The Incredibles, Toy Story and Monsters Inc., as well as Disney Animation properties like Frozen, Zootopia, Moana, The Lion King and the Little Mermaid.

Comcast’s Universal, too, has decked out its theme parks with its own properties — Jurassic Park, Minions, Secret Life of Pets, Dark Universe and How to Train Your Dragon — alongside licensed franchises like the Wizarding World of Harry Potter and Nintendo.

And beloved and well-tended-to franchises have staying power: The Star Wars franchise hasn’t notched a new theatrical release since 2019, yet it’s remained one of the top film franchises in the cultural zeitgeist, according to Fandom, the world’s largest platform for entertainment fans.

Disclosure: CNBC and Rotten Tomatoes are divisions of Versant Media.