IMF forecasts Thailand’s GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2026

Thailand’s economy is projected to grow 2.1% in 2025, slowing to 1.6% by 2026 due to economic challenges. Key factors include tourism uncertainties, supply chain issues, and household debt.

Key Points

Economic Growth Projections

• Thailand’s economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2025, slowing to 1.6% in 2026.
• The International Monetary Fund cites global and domestic challenges, such as supply chain disruptions and a slowdown in key export markets.
• The tourism sector remains uncertain despite gradual recovery from the pandemic.

Monetary Policy Context

• The Bank of Thailand maintained its one-day repurchase rate at 1.50% as of October 2025.
• Following multiple rate cuts totaling 100 basis points, indicators suggest the potential for further monetary easing.

Key Economic Considerations

• Growth forecasts differ slightly among institutions, with the IMF, World Bank, and ADB offering varied outlooks due to factors like weaker exports and household debt.
• Policymakers face challenges in balancing economic stimulus while addressing structural issues and promoting innovation to ensure long-term resilience.
• Prioritizing sustainable growth through regional trade partnerships and green initiatives will be essential for maintaining competitiveness.

IMF Projects Thailand’s GDP Growth to Reach 1.6% by 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted that Thailand’s GDP growth will stabilize at 1.6% by 2026, amid ongoing economic recovery challenges. This projection, released during the IMF’s recent regional outlook briefing, highlights both optimism and caution as the nation grapples with external pressures and domestic reforms.

The IMF’s report suggests that while Thailand’s economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing, factors such as global inflation and geopolitical tensions are contributing to uncertainty. In 2023, the Thai economy is projected to grow by 2.9%, reflecting a recovery in tourism and exports, as well as increased domestic consumption. However, growth is expected to decelerate in the following years due to potential headwinds.

“Thailand’s outlook remains fragile,” noted IMF economist Dr. Aruna Kumar. “The country must navigate a complex landscape to ensure sustainable growth. Strengthening infrastructure and investing in green technologies are crucial as we move forward.” The country’s vulnerability to shifts in global demand and supply chain issues has prompted calls for strategic reforms to bolster resilience.

Economists point to the importance of stimulating domestic innovation and attracting foreign investment to secure a more robust economic future. With an aging population and productivity concerns looming, Thailand faces significant challenges in maintaining its economic momentum.

As policymakers deliberate on necessary reforms and investments, the IMF’s projection serves as both a cautionary tale and a guiding framework for Thailand’s economic strategies in the coming years.

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Reuters