Morgan Stanley forecasts gold at $4,800 by fourth quarter of 2026

Morgan Stanley forecast gold would hit $4,800 per ounce by the ‍fourth quarter of this ​year, exceeding last year’s records, citing falling interest rates, a ⁠change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, and buying by central banks and funds. In a note dated January 5, it also said events in Venezuela over the weekend were ‌likely to ‌attract buyers to gold as a safe haven, but did not specify this as a ‌reason for its $4,800/oz forecast.

Bullion touched a record high of $4,549.71/oz on December 26, and ended 2025 with a gain of 64%, its best annual performance since 1979.

SAFE HAVENS IN TIMES OF UPHEAVAL Traders view gold as a safe store of ​value during times of economic and geopolitical turmoil that ​also performs well in low-interest-rate environments when its non-yielding nature is less ‌of a ‍disadvantage financially.

For silver, the bank said 2025 marked ‍peak deficit, adding China’s export licence requirements, which have taken ‌effect from the start of this year, added to the “upside risk for silver”.

Silver recorded its strongest annual gain in 2025, surging 147%, on rising industrial and investor appetite and a structural market deficit.

Of the base metals complex, the bank said it favoured aluminum and copper, both of which face supply challenges and increasing demand.

“Aluminium supply is constrained ‍everywhere except Indonesia, while the rising Midwest Premium suggests some U.S. buying may be returning,” the note said.It added that ‍U.S. copper imports ⁠have risen, keeping ⁠other markets tight and that 2025’s high level of copper supply disruptions were continuing into 2026.

The benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange hit a peak of $13,387.50 on Tuesday. The bank also flagged the strength of the nickel market, which is driven by supply disruption risk in Indonesia, although it said much of this could be priced in.

Nickel gained 5.8% to $17,980 a ton on Tuesday, hitting its highest since October 8, 2024.