Nifty: Will Nifty break past 26,350 for a fresh rally this week?

Analysts expect the uptrend in Nifty to continue as long as key support zones are respected, even as the index moves through a consolidation phase near record highs. A breakout above the upper range could extend the rally towards 26,500–26,800, while dips are still seen as buying opportunities rather than weakness. Among stocks, IndusInd Bank and PB Fintech are the common favourites.

SAMEET CHAVAN

HEAD RESEARCH –TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES AT ANGEL ONE

Where is Nifty headed?
With so many failed attempts around all-time highs, the recent price action in Nifty has certainly caught so many momentum traders on the wrong foot. The moment we approach the 25,800–25,700 zone, the buying tends to emerge suddenly, and, on the flipside, sellers are not willing to give up around 26,300–26,300. We are observing the ‘Upward Sloping Trend Line’ around 25,800 (joining recent lows) to act as a make-or-break level in the near term. Immediately, 26,500–26,700 are the levels to watch out for. Use intra-week decline to create long positions by keeping in mind the immediate support at 26,000 and then eventually 25,800.

Trading Strategy:

We recommend a Bull Call Spread strategy for December 16 expiry, which is considered moderately bullish. One can buy 1 lot of ATM 26,200 CE at Rs 180 and sell 1 lot of OTM 26,400 CE at Rs 85. The net outflow is Rs 95 (180–85) i.e. Rs 7,125—which is the maximum potential loss.

The break-even point is 26,295, and the maximum profit is Rs 105 (26,400– 26,200– 96) i.e. Rs 7,875.

TOP STOCK BETS:
PB Fintech (Policy Bazaar) : Buy (CMP: Rs 18,93), Stop Loss: Rs 1,760, Target: Rs 2,100

The stock prices seem to have come out of its recent consolidation phase with prices rising around the breakout point. The weekly chart looks extremely promising.

IndusInd Bank: Buy (CMP: Rs 870), Stop Loss: Rs 852, Target: Rs 899 This has been one of the strongest banking counters in the last two odd months. On Friday, we saw prices breaking out from ‘Bullish Flag’ pattern, indicating continuation of the up-move.

SOMIL MEHTA
HEAD OF ALTERNATE RESEARCH, MIRAE ASSET SHAREKHAN

Where is Nifty headed?
After hitting an all-time high, Nifty is consolidating in a 400-point band and remains above the 20-DMA (25,994), with immediate support at 25,891. On the weekly chart, it continues to form higher tops and bottoms and trades above the 10-WMA (25,764), with momentum indicators still positive.

A breakout above 26,327 may accelerate the uptrend. The broader trend stays positive above 25,750, with upside potential toward 26,800. NBFCs remain strong, with Bajaj Finance, L&T Finance preferred. IT is firm too, with TCS and Tech Mahindra showing strength.

Trading Strategy: The recommended strategy for Nifty is to buy Nifty futures in the range 26,350–26,320 with a stop loss at 26,049 for a target of 26,600 and 26,800.

TOP STOCK BETS:

Chola Finance: (CMP: Rs 1732) Buy in the range Rs 1,740-1,720, Stop loss: Rs 1,640, Target: Rs 2,000

Chola Finance is forming a Triangle pattern above the 20- & 40-DMA, indicating potential trend resumption. Momentum indicators have turned positive with a crossover above the zero line. The stock has been consolidating broadly for a month and now trades above the 20-DMA (Rs 1,700), reaffirming strength.

Tata Consultancy Services: (CMP: Rs 3,241) Buy in the range Rs 3,250-3,200, Stop loss: Rs 3,100, Target: Rs 3,480

TCS has broken out of an ending diagonal pattern and is trading above 20- & 40-DMAs, indicating continuation of the uptrend. Momentum indicators have turned positive with a crossover above the zero line. The stock has been forming higher highs and higher lows since last month and is closing above the 20-DMA (Rs 3,137).

DHUPESH DHAMEJA
DERIVATIVES RESEARCH ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty continues to form higher lows, showing accumulation on declines, while the 20-DEMA again acted as support, triggering intraday recoveries. Reclaiming 26,100–26,150 — previously a supply zone — now immediate support. RSI near 60 indicates firm momentum, with no fatigue, and derivatives positioning remains positive with Put writing at 26,000 and PCR rising to 1.19, while call writers shift to higher strikes. Upside headroom exists toward 26,330–26,350 (all-time high zone). A sustained move above this could trigger short covering toward 26,500. Key downside support holds at 25,900–25,800, aligning with 0.382–0.50 Fibonacci levels, and the rising 20-DEMA.

Trading Strategy: The recommended strategy for Nifty options for the December 9 expiry is a Bull Put Spread, ideal for a moderately bullish market outlook. The trader buys one lot of the 26,200 strike Put options at a premium of Rs 75–80 and simultaneously sells one lot of the 26,400 strike Put options at a premium of Rs 208–212. This strategy limits both risk and reward, creating a defined range for outcomes. The break-even point is at 26,215, with a maximum potential loss of Rs 5,002 and a maximum profit of Rs 9,998.

TOP STOCK BETS:

IndusInd Bank: (CMP: Rs 870), Stop loss: Rs 830, Target Price: Rs 950
The stock has broken out of a bullish pennant, confirming trend resumption after consolidating tightly post its `720–870 rally. The breakout is backed by steady volumes, with price now holding firmly above the 200-day EMA, reinforcing structural strength. RSI above 60 reflects strong momentum.

PB Fintech: (Policy Bazaar) (CMP: Rs 1,894), Stop loss: Rs 1,800, Target Price: Rs 2,050

The stock has broken out of a descending trendline and ascending triangle, backed by higher lows between Rs 1,700–1,820, reflecting strong supply absorption. A close above Rs 1,880–1,900 has flipped this zone into support. Elevated breakout volumes and RSI above 60 confirm strong institutional-backed momentum.