Business
November Exports Rise for 17th Month but Risk 2026 Contraction Amid Challenges
In November 2025, Thai exports grew 7.1% YoY, driven by electronics and US demand, while imports surged 17.6%, causing a large trade deficit; exports may contract in 2026 amid global and tariff pressures.
Thai Export Performance in November 2025
In November 2025, Thai merchandise exports reached USD 27.45 billion, growing 7.1% year-on-year (YOY), slightly above SCB EIC’s 7% forecast but below the Reuters median of 8.3%. Despite solid expansion, seasonally adjusted exports showed signs of slowdown, declining 2.3% month-on-month. This slowing trend comes after cumulative export growth of 12.6% over the first 11 months. Electronic products and exports to the US led growth, while gold exports contracted sharply for the second consecutive month due to a high base effect and slowed gold prices.
Rising Imports and Trade Deficit
Thai merchandise imports accelerated by 17.6% YOY in November, notably driven by a 195.1% surge in electronic integrated circuit imports, especially from Taiwan. Imports of arms, capital goods, vehicles, and consumer goods also increased, while fuel imports declined sharply. This import surge widened the November trade deficit to USD 2.73 billion, surpassing expectations, resulting in a cumulative trade deficit of USD 4.96 billion for the year.
Outlook and Risks for 2026
SCB EIC anticipates Thai exports may contract by 1.5% in 2026 due to weak global growth, fading 2025 support factors, intensified global competition, and a stronger Thai baht. Additional risks include further US tariffs, deteriorating China-US relations, stalled Thailand-US trade negotiations, and increased Chinese and US product inflows, all threatening Thailand’s export competitiveness. The baht’s appreciation puts pressure on exports, though depreciation is expected from mid-2026.
