Business
October Exports Decline, but Early Gains Keep Full-Year Growth Robust
In October 2025, Thai exports reached USD 28.8 billion, slowing to 5.7% growth due to gold export drops, while electronics and US shipments remained strong; imports surged, causing a large trade deficit.
October 2025 Export Performance and Key Drivers
In October 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports reached USD 28.8 billion, growing by 5.7% year-on-year (YOY), a notable slowdown from 19.0% in September and below SCB EIC’s 9% forecast. Seasonally adjusted data showed a monthly contraction of 1.9%. Electronics exports and shipments to the US remained the main growth drivers, with electronics rising 38.8% and exports to the US increasing 29.1%. However, gold exports plunged 76.9%, dragging overall export growth down significantly. Despite this, exports expanded 13.0% over the first ten months of 2025.
Import Trends and Trade Balance
Imports surged by 16.3% YOY in October, driven mainly by raw materials, intermediate goods, and a massive 315.3% increase in gold imports. The sharp rise in imports, coupled with slower export growth, led to Thailand recording its largest trade deficit in almost three years at USD -3.44 billion. This divergence indicates strong domestic demand for materials, especially for gold, despite declining global gold prices.
Revised Outlook for 2025 and 2026
SCB EIC raised Thailand’s export growth forecast for 2025 to 10.7%, buoyed by eased US-China trade tensions, tariff reductions, and strong electronics and gold sectors. However, 2026 is expected to see a 1.5% export contraction due to global economic slowdown, high base effects, and increasing competition from China as US tariffs on Chinese goods are lowered. Additional tariff risks and geopolitical tensions may also hinder future export performance.
