Global financial markets remain gripped by volatility as rapidly shifting geopolitical developments continue to unsettle investor sentiment. Hopes of a quick resolution between the United States and Iran have been tempered by conflicting signals, leaving markets struggling to find direction. A brief relief rally faded almost as quickly as it appeared, underscoring the fragile confidence that currently defines global trading conditions.

Adrian Mowat, EM-Equity Strategist noted that the market’s reaction reflects a rational assessment of the situation. He explained that the initial optimism stemmed from a temporary pause in potential US military action targeting Iran’s power infrastructure, which could have triggered significant retaliation, especially across the Gulf region. However, the narrative quickly changed after indications of possible negotiations were contradicted, eroding investor confidence. According to him, there are currently no clear signals from the United States, Iran, or even Israel that suggest a rapid resolution to the conflict.

Crude oil prices have emerged as the clearest indicator of this uncertainty, with Brent climbing back above $104 per barrel. The sharp move highlights persistent concerns around supply disruptions, particularly given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and recent attacks on energy infrastructure. Mowat observed that while the world has ample oil and natural gas supplies, logistical and geopolitical constraints have effectively trapped these resources. He believes that once the conflict eventually subsides, global markets could be flooded with energy supplies, potentially pushing Brent prices below $60 in a short span. For now, however, the market remains highly reactive, with traders navigating short-term momentum and hedging strategies, fully aware that sentiment could shift dramatically with any new development.

For India, the situation presents a complex mix of risks and opportunities. While a sustained decline in oil prices would typically support macroeconomic stability and attract foreign capital, structural concerns continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Mowat pointed out that uncertainty surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence on the IT sector remains a key overhang, especially given the sector’s significant weight in Indian indices. This has contributed to the relative underperformance of Indian markets compared to peers such as South Korea and Taiwan, where semiconductor-driven growth has taken center stage. Additionally, the weakness in the Indian rupee has added another layer of concern, as rising energy import costs strain the country’s balance of payments despite relative insulation in the domestic energy sector.

Developments in global bond markets are also adding to the complexity. A significant shift in expectations around US monetary policy has been observed, with markets now contemplating the possibility of rate hikes instead of cuts. Mowat highlighted that if such a scenario materialises, US 10-year bond yields could move above 4.5% or even higher. He views this as part of a broader, multi-year realignment of global financial markets following the prolonged period of near-zero interest rates after the Global Financial Crisis. This transition, he suggested, represents a structural reset rather than a temporary fluctuation.

On the geopolitical front, Mowat expressed scepticism about the likelihood of a complete pullback in US policy toward Iran. He indicated that such a move would be difficult to position as a strategic success, particularly given Iran’s growing influence and its demonstrated ability to disrupt global trade routes using relatively low-cost means. The possibility that Iran could exert greater control over key shipping lanes, including the Strait of Hormuz, remains a significant concern for global markets.
Despite the prevailing uncertainty, certain sectors are beginning to show signs of opportunity. Financial stocks, both globally and in India, have undergone a sharp correction, driven largely by concerns around rising credit costs. However, Mowat believes these fears may be overstated and sees value emerging in the sector, especially if geopolitical tensions begin to ease. He noted that major European financial institutions have already seen significant declines from their peak levels, suggesting that a large portion of the risk may already be priced in.Looking ahead, equities are likely to remain the preferred asset class over the next few months, provided there is some easing of geopolitical tensions. Mowat does not see a particularly strong case for precious metals in the current environment and expects bond yields to continue trending higher. He emphasised that global economies have demonstrated remarkable resilience in recent years, having weathered multiple shocks including the pandemic, the Ukraine conflict, and an inflation surge. In this context, the current market environment does not exhibit the same level of structural imbalance that led to the sharp corrections seen in 2022.

A potential de-escalation in the Gulf region, coupled with the resumption of smoother energy flows through critical shipping routes, could pave the way for a meaningful recovery in equities. Mowat pointed out that similar rebounds have occurred in the past, including the strong recovery following last year’s sell-off triggered by geopolitical developments.

From a sectoral perspective, investors are increasingly gravitating toward areas with clear demand visibility. Semiconductors remain a key focus, driven by persistent supply shortages and their central role in the AI ecosystem. Financials also appear attractive at current levels, particularly in a scenario where macroeconomic stability improves. However, the uncertainty surrounding the long-term impact of AI on software businesses continues to weigh on sentiment, especially in markets like India.

In the near term, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with oil prices, bond yields, and currency movements acting as key indicators. Until there is greater clarity on the trajectory of the conflict and its broader economic implications, volatility is expected to remain the defining feature of global markets.

Mumbai: Systematic investment plans (SIPs), long marketed as a disciplined route to equity investing, are posting losses over shorter time frames amid the returns drought in the past 18 months.

Values of SIPs in equity mutual fund SIPs over one- and two-year periods have slipped into losses, according to ETIG. Average three-year SIP returns are below 5% across most equity categories – an outcome many investors, who started investing after Covid in 2020, are yet to encounter.

A 13% decline in the benchmark Nifty and a sharper sell-off in smaller shares over the past month since the start of the West Asia conflict has pushed equity mutual funds into losses. Returns from these products were already under pressure since September 20204 – the start of the reversal of the over four-year bull rally.

Across categories, one-year SIP returns in popular segments such as flexi-cap, mid-cap and small-cap funds are down 13.47%, 10.36% and 15.38%, respectively. Over two years, their values have fallen 5.2%, 3.34% and 7.78%, while three-year SIPs have delivered gains of 3.86%, 7.26% and 2.31%, respectively.

Mutual fund officials advice topping up their SIPs with lump sums of up to 10% in the wake of the market sell-off.

“The key is to continue to accumulate more units at such prices,” says Swarup Mohanty, vice chairman and CEO, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India).
Wealth managers said the risk-off backdrop warrants investments across asset classes. “Investors who have randomly invested in SIPs should restructure their portfolios in line with their long-term goals and keep a mix of different asset classes like equity, debt or gold in their portfolios,” says Harsh Chaturvedi, founder, Opulence Invest Services.

Mumbai: Indian bond yields surged the most in nearly 30 months and ended at their highest since January last year, with an unprecedented spike in crude oil prices and the likelihood of fuel-stoked inflation increasing the probability of policy rate hardening by global central banks.

Yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond jumped 10 basis points to close at 6.83%, CCIL data showed. One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

The 10-year yield opened at 6.78% and inched up to 6.88% in the first hour of the session as global markets traded with nervousness ahead of the expiry of Donald Trump’s 48-hour deadline to Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Yields saw their biggest single-day spike since October 2023 and ended at highest level since January 2025, LSEG data showed. They, however, eased after the US president indicated no immediate attacks on Iran following diplomatic efforts. The 10-year yield eased from 6.88% to 6.79% in the last half hour of the trade, before closing at 6.83%.
“When the news of US-Iran talks came, some short covering and profit booking happened. But sentiments are negative. RBI is mildly present and on the sidelines since global yields are also inching up,” said a bond trader at a primary dealership.

Yields across either side of the Atlantic have hardened, with Reuters reporting that the probability of further rate easing by the US Federal Reserve may have reduced amid the most visible spike in risk-free rates in the US since last summer.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Sunday raised its oil price forecasts for the second time in as many weeks, global media outlets reported, citing Wall Street bank’s concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. It now expects Brent to average $110 in March-April, up from a prior forecast of $98 and marking a sharp increase from 2025 levels. ‘Higher for Longer’
The upgrade extends beyond the immediate disruption. Goldman raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85 from $77, with WTI seen at $79, while longer-dated prices have also been revised higher.

Back home, banking system liquidity, too, was in a deficit for the first time in nearly three months after quarterly advance tax outflows and due to increased central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market, traders said. Experts, however, expect system liquidity to improve in the next few days.

System liquidity stood at a deficit of ₹65,395.64 crore as of March 22 against a daily average surplus of ₹2.45 lakh crore since February. Consequently, this also raised overnight borrowing costs for banks, with call rate trading at an average of 5.32% on Monday, versus a weighted average call rate of 5% from February.

“We do have about ₹5 lakh crore of durable liquidity, hence showing that there is money with the government. I expect this money to flow into the banking system in the coming week as government and end-of-year spending,” said Alok Singh, head of treasury at CSB Bank.

LONDON — With the FTSE 100 pushing past 10,000 points for the first time early in 2026 and delivering strong gains driven by defence spending, banking resilience and healthcare innovation, investors are eyeing a select group of blue-chip stocks for potential outperformance this year.

Analysts remain broadly bullish on the UK’s flagship index, forecasting around 14% earnings growth and record dividend payouts of up to £86 billion across constituents. Sectors benefiting from geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates, commodity strength and demographic trends are drawing particular attention as the index eyes further records toward 11,000 or beyond.

Here is a look at 10 FTSE 100 stocks frequently cited by analysts and commentators in early 2026 as strong buys, based on growth potential, valuation, dividends and thematic tailwinds. Selections draw from recurring recommendations across defence, pharmaceuticals, financials, energy and consumer staples, with no single list universally agreed upon but clear consensus themes emerging.

1. BAE Systems (BA.) — Defence giant BAE Systems tops many long-term watchlists as global military spending surges. NATO commitments, European rearmament and ongoing geopolitical risks have fueled order books. Shares have performed strongly, with analysts highlighting consistent revenue visibility and reasonable valuations relative to growth prospects. The stock benefits from both organic expansion and potential acquisitions in the sector.
2. AstraZeneca (AZN) — The UK’s most valuable company by market capitalization at around £230 billion early in the year, AstraZeneca continues to lead on pharmaceutical innovation. Its oncology and rare disease pipelines, combined with strategic collaborations, position it for sustained earnings growth. Healthcare themes tied to ageing populations and medical advances make it a defensive growth play, with strong analyst support.
3. HSBC Holdings (HSBA) — Europe’s largest bank by assets, HSBC has reclaimed top spots in the index on robust Asian exposure and higher net interest income. Banking stocks have rallied to 15-year highs in early 2026 amid rate tailwinds and economic resilience. HSBC offers a compelling mix of dividend yield and international diversification, with analysts noting its undervaluation compared to global peers.
4. Shell (SHEL) — As one of the world’s leading energy majors, Shell provides exposure to oil and gas while advancing in renewables and low-carbon solutions. Energy stocks have supported the FTSE amid commodity price strength. Shell’s substantial dividend, disciplined capital allocation and transition strategy appeal to income and growth investors alike, with recent performance reflecting sector momentum.
5. GSK (GSK) — GlaxoSmithKline has rebounded strongly, reaching multi-year highs on vaccine and specialty medicine momentum. Its pipeline in respiratory, oncology and infectious diseases, plus operational improvements, has driven analyst upgrades. The stock combines growth potential with a solid dividend, fitting both healthcare and income strategies in a higher-rate environment.
6. Barclays (BARC) — The UK-focused lender has seen sharp gains, up over 50% in the prior 12 months into 2026, on improved profitability and share buybacks. Barclays benefits from domestic banking strength and investment banking recovery. Analysts see further upside from cost discipline and potential rate cuts supporting loan demand, making it a high-conviction recovery and value play.
7. Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) — Aerospace and defence exposure has propelled Rolls-Royce, with civil aviation recovery and military engine demand boosting results. The company has delivered on efficiency targets and raised guidance, attracting investors seeking cyclical growth. Its transformation story remains compelling despite valuation debates, with strong order intake signaling multi-year tailwinds.
8. Prudential (PRU) — Focused on Asia and emerging markets, Prudential capitalizes on rising wealth and insurance demand in high-growth regions. Analysts highlight its quality management and long-term demographic trends, with the stock trading at attractive valuations. It offers a blend of growth and dividend income, appealing to those betting on global economic rebalancing.
9. Coca-Cola HBC (CCH) — The bottling and beverages group has ranked among the top performers in early 2026, driven by volume growth and pricing power. Strong execution in emerging European and African markets, combined with brand strength, supports earnings resilience. Its forward dividend yield and reasonable multiple make it attractive for consumer staples exposure amid economic uncertainty.
10. Legal & General (LGEN) — Among the highest-yielding FTSE 100 stocks, often exceeding 8-9%, Legal & General delivers reliable income through its insurance and asset management operations. Despite occasional volatility from interest rates and results, its progressive dividend policy and diversified business appeal to income seekers. Analysts view it as a core holding for portfolios prioritizing cash returns in 2026.

The broader context favors these picks. The FTSE 100 outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025 on a local-currency basis, buoyed by “old economy” sectors dismissed by some global investors. Earnings forecasts for 2026 remain constructive, supported by a potentially more dovish Bank of England and resilient corporate balance sheets. Dividend growth is expected to hit records, with the index yield hovering around 3.4%.

Risks persist, however. Global trade tensions, commodity price swings, slower Chinese growth and domestic political factors could weigh on performance. Defence stocks face execution risks on contracts, while banks remain sensitive to interest rate paths and loan impairments. Healthcare faces patent cliffs and regulatory pressures, and energy majors must navigate the energy transition.

Valuations across the FTSE 100 generally appear reasonable compared with U.S. peers, with many stocks trading below historical averages on price-to-earnings or offering attractive dividend cover. This has prompted calls for continued inflows from international investors seeking value and income.

Investment professionals stress diversification and long-term horizons. While the 10 stocks above reflect frequent analyst favorites, individual circumstances vary. Professional advice is recommended, as past performance offers no guarantee of future results and share prices can fall as well as rise.

As of March 24, 2026, the FTSE 100 has posted solid year-to-date gains, with defence, banking and select consumer names leading. Market watchers will monitor upcoming earnings seasons, central bank decisions and geopolitical developments for fresh catalysts.

Investors interested in FTSE 100 exposure can consider individual shares via brokers or low-cost index trackers and ETFs for broader participation. Thematic funds focused on defence, healthcare or dividends have also attracted attention this year.

The UK equity market’s undervaluation narrative, combined with improving fundamentals, continues to underpin optimism. Whether the index reaches new highs or faces volatility, the 10 stocks profiled here embody key themes analysts believe will drive returns in 2026 and beyond.

Shares of IndiGo rallied as much as 4% to their day’s high of Rs 4,097 on the BSE on Tuesday after the aviation major announced that it has named former Air India Express CEO Aloke Singh as its chief strategy officer, tasking him with steering the airline’s long-term plans.

His role will include overseeing major initiatives such as the induction of Airbus A350 aircraft into the fleet and the development of hub airports. The planned induction of the Airbus A350 in 2028 is a significant milestone for IndiGo, as it will allow the airline to begin long-haul transcontinental operations. Singh will report to promoter Rahul Bhatia, who is currently managing the airline as interim CEO.

The move comes amid leadership changes at IndiGo following the resignation of chief executive Pieter Elbers on March 10. Bhatia stepped in to take charge after his departure. Elbers’ exit came in the wake of an operational disruption in December 2025, when the airline cancelled more than 4,200 flights between December 1 and 9 due to a shortage of pilots needed to meet stricter flight duty time limitation norms introduced in November.

“Aloke brings an exceptional blend of strategic vision and operational depth. His comprehensive understanding of the aviation ecosystem will be invaluable as we build a more agile, resilient and future-ready organisation, and accelerate our next phase of growth,” Bhatia said.

Singh has over three decades of experience spanning strategy, planning, operations and commercial roles in the aviation sector. During his time at Air India Express, he led a period of transformation that included the airline’s shift from government ownership to the Tata Group, its merger with AirAsia India, expansion of its fleet and a brand revamp.

Also Read | Sensex down 8K pts in 1 month. Experts recommend flexicap, multi asset funds & continuing SIPs

On Monday, shares of IndiGo were in focus after international brokerage firm Goldman Sachs trimmed its target price while maintaining its Buy call on the counter. The international brokerage has cut the target by 13.3% to Rs 5,200 apiece, lower from Rs 6,000 earlier. The new target price implies an upside potential of around 32% from the last closing price of Rs 3,950 per share.
Analysts said this is due to rising fuel costs and near-term weakness in Middle East traffic. The brokerage now expects EBITDAR of around Rs 13,700 crore for FY26, Rs 15,900 crore for FY27 and Rs 24,400 crore for FY28.
It added that industry consolidation is likely amid ongoing supply constraints, which could support market share gains for IndiGo as weaker players exit. Goldman Sachs also highlighted the airline’s net cash balance sheet as a key strength.

Last week, the airline introduced a fuel surcharge on domestic and international flights, citing a sharp surge in jet fuel prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Sensex, Nifty today: Catch all the LIVE stock market action here

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Thailand is experiencing its most significant foreign capital flight in years, with bond outflows exceeding $1 billion in March 2026, marking the largest selloff since 2022. This mass exit is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have prompted global investors to retreat from emerging markets in favor of safer assets.

The resulting surge in oil prices has intensified concerns regarding inflation and widening current-account deficits, leading to substantial losses for international investors in both Thai bonds and equities.

Key Points

• Global funds offloaded more than $1 billion in Thai bonds in March, putting the market on track for its largest foreign selloff in four years.
• On a single Friday, overseas investors withdrew $1.2 billion from the bond market and an additional $1.2 billion from Thai equities.
• The retreat is primarily attributed to regional instability in the Middle East, which has caused money managers to de-risk their portfolios.
• Rising oil prices are a major concern for the Thai economy, as they threaten to drive up inflation and negatively impact the national current-account balance.
• Thai bonds have delivered an 8.5% loss to dollar-based investors on a hedged basis this month, while the domestic stock market has declined by over 8%.

Overseas investors withdrew a total of $1.2 billion from Thai bonds on Friday, March 20, 2026. This sell-off was the largest single-day withdrawal from the market since March 2022.

According to data from the Thai Bond Market Association, this significant exit is part of a broader trend where global funds dumped over $1 billion in Thai debt throughout March. The withdrawal coincides with escalating Middle East tensions, which have fanned inflation worries and pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Beyond the bond market, overseas investors also offloaded $1.2 billion in Thai equities on the same day, marking the largest stock sell-off in two years.

The Bank of Thailand and market strategists note that these capital outflows are pressuring the Thai baht, which tested a nine-month low recently. Analysts suggest that the combination of high oil prices and widening current-account deficits has made emerging markets like Thailand less attractive to global money managers. While some officials remain confident in domestic stability, the Social Security Fund recently breached its risk limits for the first time in two years due to this market volatility.

What is the percentage loss for dollar-based Thai bond investors?

Thai bonds have delivered an 8.5% loss to dollar-based investors on a hedged basis in March 2026. This performance ranks among the worst in the region as global funds exit emerging markets due to escalating Middle East tensions.

The baht has faced significant downward pressure, testing a nine-month low of 33 per US dollar as investors shift toward safe-haven assets. Analysts at K-Research suggest the currency could weaken further to 33.50 per dollar this week due to rising US bond yields and geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, the Social Security Fund reported breaching its 8% value-at-risk threshold for the first time in two years following the market turmoil.

Middle East tensions have triggered a significant “risk-off” sentiment across global emerging markets, leading to substantial capital outflows as investors favor the US dollar and other safe-haven assets. This shift has particularly impacted Asian equities, which have seen a reversal of the “Sell America, Buy Asia” strategy due to the region’s heavy reliance on energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economists warn that a prolonged conflict could result in stagflation, a condition of high inflation and stagnant growth driven by surging oil and gas prices. Emerging economies like Thailand and India are especially vulnerable to cost-push inflation and trade deficits as the cost of importing crude oil, which has topped $100 a barrel, significantly increases production and logistics expenses.

Other People are Reading