Domestic benchmark indices recovered after a gap-down opening and ended on a firm footing. IT stocks emerged as key drags in a volatile trading session, though broad-based buying across sectors kept the markets resilient. The Nifty climbed 116.90 points, or 0.46%, to settle at 25,571.25, while the BSE Sensex advanced 316.57 points, or 0.38%, to end at 82,814.71.

In light of the US Supreme Court’s Friday decision to rule Trump’s tariffs as illegal, sentiments are likely to remain positive, but higher volatility cannot be ruled out.

Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:

Q: Nifty managed to end the week with gains of 0.4% but failing to cross the 25,600 mark. What do Nifty charts suggest for next week of action?

Last week, the benchmark index Nifty traded within a narrow range of 512 points, which was the tightest weekly range seen over the past four weeks, resulting in the formation of an NR4 pattern. Interestingly, despite the compressed range, volatility remained elevated. During the first three trading sessions, the index witnessed a gradual pullback, however, Thursday saw a sharp reversal, erasing all the gains made earlier in the week. On Friday, the index once again found support near the lower end of the weekly range and staged a rebound. This erratic price behaviour hints that something more structural may be unfolding beneath the surface.

In fact, since February 4, the index has been consolidating within a defined range of 26,009 to 25,373. Even within this tight band, volatility continues to remain high. Owing to the sustained consolidation over recent sessions, all the key moving averages have flattened out. Momentum indicators and oscillators also point towards a sideways phase, with the daily RSI moving in a narrow range for the past 13 trading sessions. Such prolonged compression often acts as a precursor to a decisive directional move.
Going ahead, we expect the index to remain in a sideways trajectory in the near term, with stock-specific action likely to stay vibrant. However, following the Supreme Court’s ruling against the Trump-era tariffs, the market may open with a notable gap-up of nearly 350 to 400 points, buoyed by positive global sentiment.
In terms of crucial levels, the 25,400 to 25,350 zone will continue to act as an important support area, as multiple prior swing lows converge in this region. A sustained breakdown below 25,350 could pave the way for a sharper decline towards the 25,000 mark. On the upside, the 25,950 to 26,000 band is expected to serve as a key resistance zone for the index. The index’s behaviour around these pivotal levels will play a decisive role in shaping the next meaningful directional move.

Q: AI summit grabbed headlines this week and one of the takeaways was Nvidia and Anthropic announcing partnerships with India companies. Beyond the headlines and sentimental rally, how do you see this development and any stock/s that will now be under your radar?

The AI Summit announcements signal a structural shift rather than just a sentiment-driven move. NVIDIA has partnered with Indian players including Larsen & Toubro and Yotta to build sovereign AI infrastructure and GPU capacity in India. Meanwhile, Anthropic has tied up with Infosys to develop enterprise AI solutions using Claude models.

Over the medium term, this could unlock new revenue streams for IT services and digital infrastructure companies. Stocks such as Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, and L&T remain on the radar.

That said, the IT index continues to face pressure amid AI-led disruption concerns and has not yet shown clear signs of stabilisation. The real impact will play out gradually, and investors should track sustained deal momentum and strong buying interest before expecting a durable trend reversal.

Q: What is your overall view on midcap and largecap IT stocks?

Overall, the IT space remains under significant pressure across both largecap and midcap names. The Nifty IT Index has cracked nearly 17% in the last three weeks and has decisively broken below its key long-term support, the 200-week EMA on the weekly chart. Momentum indicators are also weak: RSI has slipped below 40, MACD is below the zero line, and a rising ADX suggests the bearish trend is gaining strength.

Heavyweights and midcap players such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Wipro, Mphasis, LTIM, and LTTS have all slipped below their 200-week moving averages. FIIs have also sold Rs 10,956 crore in the IT space in the first fortnight of February 2026.

The structure is clearly weak for now. Avoid bottom fishing or trying to catch a falling knife. Despite recent AI-related announcements, the benefits are long term in nature. It is prudent to wait for the IT index to stabilise and for clear signs of strong buying interest before planning fresh exposure.

Q: What is your view on Bank Nifty?

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, continues to deliver a standout performance, significantly outperforming the frontline indices. While the broader Nifty trades nearly 3% below its all-time high, Bank Nifty is positioned right near record levels, underlining the sector’s impressive strength. This relative outperformance is further validated by the Bank Nifty Nifty ratio chart, which has surged to a 33-month high, which is a strong indication that leadership within the market currently rests with the banking pack.

With the index hovering around lifetime highs, all moving average-based technical setups are aligned in favour of the bulls. The daily RSI is steady around the 60 mark, reflecting steady momentum, while the weekly RSI has already pushed deeper into bullish territory, reinforcing the strength of the ongoing trend.

Given this robust chart structure and momentum alignment, Bank Nifty appears well placed to extend its upward trajectory in the coming sessions. In terms of key levels, the 20-day EMA zone at 60,500 to 60,400 acts as a vital support area. On the upside, the immediate resistance is placed at 61,600 to 61,700. A sustained breakout above 61,700 could trigger a strong upward rally, potentially opening the doors to fresh all-time highs and the next leg of bullish momentum.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Wall Street has been eagerly selling private credit as a hot opportunity for individual investors. That sales pitch just got tougher.

Blue Owl Capital OWL -4.80%decrease; red down pointing triangle, a poster child for the industry, said it is liquidating $1.4 billion in assets to raise money to pay out individuals who bought into some of its funds in their heyday but now want to get out. The firm hoped the sale would shore up wobbling investor confidence.

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Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran over stalled nuclear negotiations have once again heightened geopolitical risks in global crude markets. Recent warnings from US leadership about possible military action after Iran allegedly crossed key American “red lines” triggered a sharp rally in crude prices, with WTI jumping more than 5% as markets reacted to the possibility of a broader confrontation. This renewed uncertainty has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions and their impact on major crude-importing economies, particularly India.

Significance of Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran to the north and Oman/UAE to the south. Although it does not run through Iranian territory, the strait directly borders Iran’s coastline, giving Tehran significant strategic influence. Most commercial shipping lanes lie within Omani territorial waters, but portions fall under Iran’s jurisdiction, enabling Iran to exert pressure when tensions rise. Historically, Iran has threatened to disrupt traffic by conducting naval drills, deploying military vessels, laying mines, or harassing oil tankers—tactics seen during earlier regional confrontations. Although Iran cannot legally shut the strait entirely, even limited obstruction could severely disrupt global oil flows.

The strait’s relevance becomes critical during periods of escalating U.S.–Iran tensions because nearly 20% of the world’s petroleum liquids and almost 30% of seaborne crude oil pass through this narrow waterway every day. With few alternative routes available for Gulf exporters, global energy supplies remain highly vulnerable to any disruption. Even the threat of a blockade or increased military movement often triggers immediate price volatility.

A complete shutdown remains a low-probability scenario due to a strong U.S. naval presence and Iran’s own dependence on the strait for exporting crude. However, temporary interruptions or heightened military activity can still elevate war-risk insurance premiums, slow tanker movement, and push oil prices upward.

Countries Likely to Be Adversely Impacted

Major crude importers such as India and China would be among the earliest and most affected. Both economies rely heavily on supplies from the Gulf region, and any perceived threat to uninterrupted shipping can trigger short-term spikes in domestic fuel markets. This trend mirrors previous periods of Middle Eastern instability, where fears of supply disruptions drove temporary oil price surges even when physical flows remained largely intact.
These price shocks, however, are often short-lived. Once diplomatic channels re-engage or confirmation emerges that shipping lanes remain operational, markets typically retreat, easing part of the geopolitical risk premium.

Impact on India’s Crude Oil Prices

If a military conflict between the United States and Iran erupts, the immediate impact on India would be a rapid rise in crude oil prices due to concerns over potential supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. A sudden spike in global crude benchmarks would raise India’s import costs and push up domestic crude and fuel prices. Such geopolitical shocks also heighten speculative activity in oil futures, with crude derivatives witnessing increased trading volumes as traders attempt to hedge against volatility. Broader markets may remain steady during such episodes since the risk is mostly concentrated within the energy complex.

If higher crude prices persist, the effect will extend beyond the oil market. Increased petrol and diesel costs typically translate into higher transportation and manufacturing expenses, raising inflationary pressures within the Indian economy. The longer global benchmarks remain elevated, the greater the potential for sustained inflationary impact.

Alternative Sources

In a worst-case scenario involving disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, India has the advantage of diversified sourcing. Over recent years, India has increased crude imports from countries such as Russia, the United States, Brazil, and West African producers. This diversification helps buffer risks associated with Persian Gulf tensions. The government has also signalled its readiness to rely on strategic petroleum reserves and explore additional non-Gulf suppliers if required. Other measures could include reducing refined product exports to prioritise domestic fuel availability and using alternative ports or supply routes where feasible.

Overall, while the geopolitical bias currently leans toward higher crude prices, the extent and duration of this rise will depend largely on whether the Strait of Hormuz experiences meaningful and sustained disruption. In the absence of an actual supply shock, any price rally is likely to be temporary and driven mainly by sentiment rather than structural supply constraints.

(The author is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments)

Foreign investment applications in Thailand experienced a robust 46% year-on-year increase in January 2026, reaching a total value of 33.8 billion baht.

This growth was driven primarily by investors from China, Japan, and Singapore, with a significant portion of projects aligned with the Thai government’s focus on future industries such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and clean energy.

Key Points

• A total of 113 foreign investors were granted permission to operate in Thailand in January, representing a 10% increase in the number of applications compared to the previous year.
• Japan contributed the highest investment value at 15.3 billion baht from 25 applications, while China recorded the highest number of individual applications with 26 projects valued at 5.39 billion baht.
• Other leading investors for the period included Singapore (5.51 billion baht), Hong Kong (587 million baht), and the United States (420 million baht).
• Approximately 49% of the approved projects were promoted through the Board of Investment (BoI), accounting for 17.2 billion baht of the total investment value.
• Investment activities are heavily concentrated in high-tech and “S-curve” sectors, including EV battery-swapping stations, electronic components, software development, and advanced engineering services.

The top three business categories approved through BoI channels were contract manufacturing services, high-value services, and computer-related services.

The five leading countries/regions investing in Thailand during the period were:

• China (26 applications, 5.39 billion baht)
• Japan (25 applications, 15.3 billion baht)
• The United States (16 applications, 420 million baht)
• Singapore (12 applications, 5.51 billion baht)
• Hong Kong (10 applications, 587 million baht).

Specific Chinese investments focused on wood processing, EV infrastructure, and electronics, while Japanese investments centered on manufacturing procurement, software, and electric motor production. Nearly half of these projects were facilitated through the Board of Investment (BoI). These outlays align with Thailand’s national policy to attract growth in future-oriented sectors such as advanced technology, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles (EVs), clean energy, and digital services.

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Bitcoin’s Wall Street embrace was supposed to bring stability. Instead, it created a new vulnerability: dependence on American money that is now in retreat.

Since Oct. 10, roughly $8.5 billion has flowed out of US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Futures exposure on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has fallen by about two-thirds from its late-2024 peak to roughly $8 billion. Prices on Coinbase, the venue favored by many American institutions, have persistently traded at a discount to offshore exchange Binance — a signal of sustained US selling. Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% even as stocks and precious metals have found buyers.

That reversal carries unusual weight because of how the market changed. For most of its history, Bitcoin’s price was set on offshore exchanges by retail traders. Over the past two years, spot ETFs funneled billions through US vehicles, the CME became the dominant futures venue, and pension funds and hedge funds displaced individual buyers. American retail and institutional capital became the marginal price-setter.When that capital was expanding, Bitcoin surged to a record on Oct. 6. Now it’s stalling — and there is no obvious catalyst to restart it. The original cryptocurrency was little changed at around $67,500 on Wednesday.

The core problem is simple: the institutional thesis broke. Investors who bought Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement, or equity market stress have watched it fall alongside — and sometimes faster than — the risks it was supposed to offset. Those who treated it as a momentum trade have rotated into assets that are actually moving from global stocks to gold.

The unwinding of that crypto trade has left the market thinner than it appears. Demand for borrowed exposure on the CME “hasn’t been this muted since the pre-ETF run-up of mid-2023,” said David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital. Less leverage means fewer forced buyers when prices rise — and fewer natural absorbers when selling builds.
Part of the institutional wave was also more mechanical than it appeared. Hedge funds were running basis trades — buying spot Bitcoin while selling futures contracts at a premium, capturing the spread as yield. The strategy required no view on where prices were headed, only that the return exceeded what was available elsewhere.For most of 2025, it did. When that spread compressed below Treasury yields after Oct. 10, the trade lost its rationale and those flows stopped. That represents one element of the demand picture, though most of the ETF reversal appears driven by declining appetite for Bitcoin as an asset rather than the economics of any single arbitrage strategy.

“That capital has no reason to stay,” said Bohumil Vosalik, chief investment officer at 319 Capital. Until genuine spot demand returns, he added, “every bounce risks becoming a sell-to-even zone rather than a foundation for recovery.” The Coinbase premium — negative for most of 2026 — suggests that demand has yet to materialize.

Bitcoin’s integration with US finance has brought real advantages — deeper liquidity and the institutional legitimacy the asset had long lacked. For now, though, the bid is in retreat and the market has lost its ability to respond to good news.

The deeper problem is structural. Institutionalization did not eliminate volatility. It reallocated it. The same products that brought Wall Street into Bitcoin — ETFs, yield-generating overlays, options strategies — were designed to smooth returns in stable conditions. They do. But they also concentrate risk in ways that only become visible when conditions shift.

Structured products that generate yield by selling options suppress price swings in calm markets, then amplify them when a real catalyst hits. Many ETF investors are also sitting below their average cost basis, which means bounces get sold by holders looking simply to break even — capping advances that in earlier cycles might have fed on momentum.

“The growing embrace of products like BlackRock’s IBIT is creating localized stabilization in Bitcoin when prices trade in a range,” said Spencer Hallarn, global head of OTC trading at GSR. But when a real catalyst hits, “those same structures can actually exaggerate the move. In particular, yield-generating products that systematically sell options suppress volatility, until they amplify it.”

The result is a market that has lost its ability to respond to good news. When BlackRock Inc. announced a product tied to Uniswap, the token briefly rallied before sliding back. In prior cycles, similar headlines often triggered extended runs. Now enthusiasm fades before it builds.

“The market structure really broke down on October 10th,” said Zach Lindquist, managing partner at Pure Crypto. “We’ve never seen this steady and severity of a drawdown even in 2018 and 2022.”