The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) conducted a “Tourism Business Confidence Index” survey in Q4 2025, involving 302 foreign tourists in Bangkok and Chonburi. The survey revealed that while overall safety concerns were moderate, specific issues like scams were highly problematic, and the strength of the Thai baht significantly influenced 90% of visitors’ travel decisions.

---

Key Points

• The strength of the baht significantly influences 90% of travel decisions, while end-of-year promotions impact 78%. Key development priorities include sustainable management (28%) and promoting local events (26%).
• Awareness about secondary-city tourism is moderate with 72% familiar, but interest varies: 36% want to visit, 51% are unsure, and 13% lack interest. Nearly half have visited, while 49% express interest in visiting.
• Tourists rated satisfaction highly in safety (4.12) and friendliness (4.01). Average spend per person in Q4 2025 was 51,286 baht for a 10.66-night stay, with European tourists spending the most (76,624 baht).

Key Visitor Concerns and Safety: Foreign tourists generally expressed moderate concern about travel safety, with average scores ranging from 2.96 to 3.34. However, certain areas generated higher anxiety:

• Top 5 Concerns:
  • Tourist-targeted scams/fraud (e.g., taxi, tour company scams) – highest concern (score 3.44).
  • Communication barriers with locals or emergency services (score 3.37).
  • Quality of emergency medical services (score 3.31).
  • Being exploited or asked for bribes by officials (score 3.31).
  • Pollution (e.g., PM2.5 or haze) (score 3.21).

Bangkok Travel and Public Transport: Tourists expressed strong agreement that electric rail fares in Bangkok are too expensive (score 3.70). The main issues were repeated entry fees when switching lines (68%) and high single-trip fares for short distances (21%). A significant majority (over 71%) indicated they would purchase a reasonably priced Tourist Pass offering unlimited rides.

• Desired Improvements for the Rail System:
  • English signage and information.
  • Better value for money and fare levels.
  • Improved connections and transfer links to other transport systems.

Awareness and Interest in Secondary City Tourism

A survey on secondary-city tourism revealed that the majority of respondents (72%) have a moderate awareness of this travel niche. Although 36% expressed a desire to visit secondary cities, 51% remained uncertain, indicating a need for increased outreach. Among the respondents, half had previously visited these cities, while another half expressed interest in doing so, illustrating a significant opportunity for tourism in these areas. Despite low levels of disinterest (only 2%), it’s clear that a large portion of potential visitors is still weighing their options.

---

Visitor Experiences and Spending Patterns

Tourists reported high satisfaction in their experiences in secondary cities, with a feeling of safety scoring the highest at 4.12 out of 5. Factors like friendliness towards foreigners and overall accommodation quality also received favorable ratings.

The average spending per trip in Q4 2025 peaked at 51,286 baht with European tourists reporting the highest expenditure. Independent travelers tended to spend more and stay longer than those opting for tour packages. Currency fluctuations and tourism promotions significantly influenced travel decisions for many respondents, highlighting the importance of cost-effectiveness in their choices.

Development Priorities and Influencing Factors

Respondents prioritized sustainable environmental management (28%) as the most critical factor for future development in secondary cities, followed closely by promoting local activities and improving transport services. Tourism promotions like the Amazing Thailand Countdown were credited with influencing travel decisions for 78% of participants. This underscores the importance of timely events in driving tourism momentum. The findings indicate that while there’s significant potential in secondary city tourism, effective marketing and supportive infrastructure will be essential for attracting and retaining visitors.

Other People are Reading

Expansion create opportunity. – Anonymous

---

Dear Client,

The Grey Owl All-Season Strategy’s objectives are to minimize drawdowns, outperform short-term bonds by several hundred basis points each year (i.e., beat “cash”), and participate meaningfully in risk-on rallies. For the full year 2025, GOAS returned +11.4% and met each of these objectives.

We are particularly pleased with the strategy’s 2025 performance given how the year began. While the popular “Magnificent 7 (MAGS)” group of stocks declined roughly -30% from its December 17, 2024 peak to the April 8, 2025 low 1 , the Grey Owl All-Season (GOAS) portfolio was down less than -3% at its worst point in early April. The rebound that followed was rapid, and the year ultimately proved strong for most risk assets. GOAS managed risk during the drawdown and then repositioned to participate as conditions turned risk-on.

A few specifics below on the present environment and our current positioning, but first a more detailed review of the performance of the “primary” asset classes. 2

For the full year 2025, gold gained +63.7%, global equities rose +22.4%, U.S. equities followed closely at +17.7%, commodities increased 5.9%, and long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds returned +4.3%.

During the fourth quarter of 2025, precious metals continued to shine, with gold up another +11.5%. U.S. equities gained +2.7%, while global equities performed slightly better at +3.3%. Commodities were essentially flat, up +0.4%, and long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds declined -1.0%. Over this period, GOAS delivered a respectable +2.4% return.

As 2026 gets underway, a more dramatic shift may be developing. In 2025, technology and growth outperformed the broader market (i.e., the Nasdaq beat the S&P 500, finishing up +20.8%), while small-capitalization stocks lagged, ending the year up +12.7%. 3 That dynamic has changed meaningfully during the first three weeks of 2026.

As of the close on January 23, 2026, the “Magnificent 7” group was down -3.6% from its October 29, 2025, high and -0.5% year-to-date. In contrast, small-capitalization equities and commodities are significantly outperforming, up +7.6% and +7.4% year-to-date, respectively. GOAS is aligned with these prevailing conditions and is up +5.3% through January 23, 2026.

In short, our diversified, risk-managed approach delivered solid double-digit returns in 2025 while avoiding major drawdowns during early-year volatility. Today, we are positioned for meaningful economic growth in the U.S. and much of the rest of the world. We believe conditions now favor cyclical outperformance and a broadening of equity participation. That means overweight exposure to commodities and smaller-capitalization equities. As the charts below indicate, this phase may only persist through the first half of 2026. For now, that is the prevailing condition regardless of how long it lasts. We are prepared to adjust as conditions evolve.

Economic Growth

Hedgeye’s real GDP projection model shows a reacceleration in growth gaining significant momentum in the first quarter and continuing through much of the second quarter. As growth has accelerated, cyclical equities and commodities have outperformed. While this acceleration continues, we expect risk assets to continue performing well.

Figure 1 – GDP Projections

Economic growth is accelerating, which historically supports risk assets—particularly cyclical equities and commodities.

Inflation

Inflation expectations have been decelerating for several quarters, as evidenced by the five-year breakeven spread—often referred to as “the market’s” inflation forecast.

Figure 2 -5-Year Breakeven

Hedgelye’s CPI model corroborates this trend, projecting continued disinflation through the second quarter of 2026, followed by only a modest seven-basis-point increase in the third quarter. Combined with accelerating growth, this backdrop is favorable for risk-taking.

Figure 3 – Inflation Projections

A key driver of lower inflation has been the price of oil—one of the few major commodities not yet firmly in a bull market.

Figure 4 -US Crude Oil Spot

WTI). The chart shows a candlestick price history from 2018 to 2026. A red trendline is drawn across the chart, showing a general downward trend. The current price is $61.025 as of 06/30/19. The y-axis represents price in USD from 10.000 to 130.000. The x-axis shows time from 2018 to 2026. The chart includes technical indicators and a volume bar at the bottom.” width=”640″ height=”446″ loading=”lazy” srcset=”https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w640 640w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w480 480w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w320 320w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w240 240w” sizes=”(max-width: 767px) calc(100vw – 36px), (max-width: 1023px) calc(100vw – 180px), 552px”>

Inflation pressures remain contained, creating a favorable backdrop for risk-assets.

Broadening US Equity Market

While the broader macro environment—accelerating real growth alongside disinflation—is critical to the rally’s expansion, sector-level dynamics are also playing an important role. Mega-capitalization technology companies are now facing more difficult year-over-year comparisons, as cycle-peak artificial-intelligence capital expenditures may be behind us, pressuring both revenue growth and margins.

The opposite is true for much of the rest of the market, particularly smaller-capitalization and cyclical businesses. With easier comparisons to last year, both revenues and margins are improving.

Hedgeye data show that while S&P 500 earnings are expected to continue growing, a greater share of that growth is coming from the “other 493” stocks.

Figure 5 – Earnings Projections

Market leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap technology, increasing opportunity across smaller and more cyclical companies.

Market Signals

Last quarter we wrote:

Market internals also point to change beneath the surface. While large-cap indices hit new highs in the third quarter, participation was narrow—signs of enthusiasm were limited. In October, that pattern began to broaden as Buying Power improved and Selling Pressure eased. With Buying Power still stronger overall, we do not see a shift toward a risk-off environment. Instead, the data suggest equity markets are transitioning as investors respond to—and anticipate—changes in growth and inflation, opening the door for new leadership among sectors and styles.

That improvement and broadening has continued. Selling Pressure is receding, and Buying Power shows further signs of strengthening.

Figure 6

More granular market data look even better. Lowry’s writes:

While many investors and the financial media are focused on the cap-weighted price indexes, the Lowry Analysis is predominantly centered on the full market on an equal weighted basis, which is dominated by smaller stocks. The reason for this is simple: the greater the number of stocks participating in a market advance and displaying promising Demand trends, the more difficult it is for sellers to take control of the market. While such features do not make the market impervious to pullbacks, recent evidence continues to mount in favor of a broad and durable advance. Still, we would like to see these improvements reflected in our longer-term measures of market health to solidify our conviction in the bulls further.

In their most recent weekly report, Lowry’s emphasized the dramatic increase in the percentage of stocks within 2% of their 52-week highs.

Figure 7

Explaining the chart, Lowry’s wrote:

One method to view how many stocks are carrying the performance load within the market is our measure of Demand intensity, or the Percent of OCO1 Stocks At or Within 2% of 52-Week Highs. This is one of the more sensitive indicators in our suite, and on January 15, it reached a one-year high of 33.36%. While this was an impressive development, the indicator moving above its multi-month range is perhaps even more important. It essentially reflects a change in character within demand intensity from good to great, as the OCO Index is dominated by smaller stocks. The more stocks that reach new highs, the stronger the market’s constitution ultimately becomes.

Market internals support the case for a broader, more durable advance.

Current Positioning

Our current portfolio remains balanced within an all-season framework but is more aggressive than when we last reported in October 2025. Since last quarter, we have increased exposure to U.S. small-capitalization equities, expanded global equity exposure—particularly in emerging markets—and added to precious metals and commodities. Fixed income and cash allocations declined from 28% to 16%.

Figure 8 – GOAS Allocation

This positioning maintains meaningful protection against inflation or market stress while remaining tilted toward growth. This balance—rooted in our all-season philosophy and adjusted for present conditions—reflects our core belief: don’t try to predict the future; position with prevailing conditions while diversifying to enable success across many possible futures.

The portfolio remains balanced but is intentionally tilted toward growth.

---

As always, if you have any thoughts regarding the above ideas or your specific portfolio that you would like to discuss, please feel free to call us at 1-888-GREY-OWL.

Sincerely,

Grey Owl Capital Management

---

---

Original Post

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

The Trump administration’s budget office told FOX Business Wednesday that it is canceling $1.5 billion in blue-state grants, citing concerns about how funds are being managed in California, Colorado, Illinois and Minnesota.

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) said it will target projects at the Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), cutting $943 million and $602 million, respectively.

An OMB spokesperson told the New York Post that the states were being targeted due to “waste and mismanagement” of taxpayer funds.

The announcement follows OMB launching a sweeping review of federal funding for several Democratic-led states in January, which required states to submit detailed receipts proving no funds were being mishandled, CBS News reported.

TRUMP’S ENERGY DEPARTMENT AXES BIDEN-ERA PROJECTS, SAVING TAXPAYERS $7.56B

The initiative reflects a shift in fiscal policy toward “America First” priorities by withholding funds from states that maintain sanctuary policies or projects the administration deems wasteful. 

Concerns cited include tax support for illegal immigrants, green initiatives and alleged fraud in certain states, such as the $250 million COVID-era scam in Minnesota uncovered in the “Feeding Our Future” case.

Several DOT and CDC programs in blue states could be affected by the funding cuts, including equity-focused infrastructure projects and public health initiatives the OMB previously criticized as “social engineering” rather than legitimate public health efforts. 

“The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and Green New Deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve,” the OMB previously said in 2025. 

TREASURY SECRETARY ANNOUNCES CASH REWARDS FOR MINNESOTA FRAUD WHISTLEBLOWERS

In January, Trump halted more than $10 billion in federal childcare and social services funding to four states, as well as New York, over concerns that some benefits had been fraudulently funneled to noncitizens, the Post reported. 

In California, San Francisco was slated to receive $15 million to expand its electric vehicle charging network, with a focus on “disadvantaged communities that are marginalized by underinvestment and overburdened by pollution,” city officials said in 2025. 

Similarly, the California Reducing Disparities Project, an equity-focused public health program serving marginalized communities, including racial minorities and LGBTQ+ populations, was awarded $60 million over six years.

Chicago has drawn scrutiny for its initiatives focused on diversity, equity and inclusion. 

The Biden-era Red Line Extension and the Red and Purple Modernization Programs, which together total approximately $2.1 billion, were paused in 2025 pending a review of “race-based contracting” practices.

DEMS’ DHS SHUTDOWN THREAT WOULD HIT FEMA, TSA WHILE IMMIGRATION FUNDING REMAINS INTACT

Additionally, funding for CDC research on sexually transmitted diseases affecting “adolescents and young adults, gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men” may be subject to potential cuts. The project, which listed Chicago as a recipient, was in line to receive $7 million, The Post reported.

In October 2025, the Trump administration labeled federal funding for various climate and renewable energy initiatives as a “Green New Scam” and subsequently terminated or paused $7 billion in grants, with Colorado among the primarily affected states, according to local media CPR News. 

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

The Trump administration may expand grant cancellations in the future amid concerns about systemic failures in sanctuary city leadership, which surfaced prominently following Minnesota’s fraud schemes.

The governors of California, Colorado, Illinois and Minnesota did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

Fox News Digital’s Greg Norman contributed to this report. 

Shares of Information Technology companies tumbled on Wednesday, as the ripple effects of a heavy overnight sell-off in their US counterparts, sparked by the launch of Anthropic’s legal AI tool, reverberated across traditional software services stocks.

The Nifty IT index fell 5.9% on Wednesday, in its worst performance since the peak of the Covid selloff in March 2020, leading to a market cap erosion of ₹1.9 lakh crore in the Indian IT pack.

“The sell-off has been triggered by market concerns that Anthropic’s new automation tools could replace currently outsourced IT services, leading to margin pressure for Indian IT companies,” said Vinod Nair, head of Research, Geojit Investments.

The San Francisco-based AI company’s new tool — Claude Cowork, an open-source plugin, is designed to automate tasks across legal, sales, marketing and data analysis.

Nair said automation tools from companies like Anthropic are viewed as a challenge to traditional IT service models.
After the launch announcement, US-based stocks Accenture, Microsoft, Cognizant and Salesforce fell 310% while American Depository Receipts (ADRs) of Infosys and Wipro fell 5.6% and 4.8%, respectively, in the US on Tuesday.
At home, Infosys fell the most, down 7.4%, followed by TCS, which declined 7%. The rest of all stocks on the Nifty IT index were down 3.8-6%.
The benchmark Nifty ended 0.2% higher at 25,776.

Sagar Shetty, research analyst at StoxBox said Wednesday’s sell-off was largely a knee-jerk reaction.

“At this stage, unless we see a clear and material impact on revenues, we don’t see any immediate reason to worry about large-scale disruption to the industry,” he said.

Nifty IT index advanced 1.4% in Tuesday’s trading after the finalisation of the India-US trade deal. Though Indian IT companies were not directly impacted by the tariffs, caution over business demand in the US had weighed on sentiment.

SHORT-TERM WORRIES, LONG-TERM STABILITY
Nair said Indian IT stocks are experiencing sentiment-driven volatility amid concerns about AI disruption, though underlying fundamentals remain stable.

“At this stage, long-term investors may selectively accumulate high-quality IT names with strong client stickiness and solid balance sheets. It is important, however, to monitor deal win trends over the next few quarters to assess any impact from AI adoption,” he said.
Shetty also said while near-term volatility may persist, deal momentum remains healthy, and the longer-term outlook for software
services remains constructive.

“We remain positive on the adaptation capabilities of Indian IT players, as the revenue model shifts from headcount-led, timeand-material billing to an AI-driven, outcome-based model,” he said.

Shetty remains bullish on Infosys, HCL Tech, Coforge and Persistent, and sees dips as good buying opportunities.