REVEALED: Dubai Square Mall to drive ‘higher occupancy, stronger retail sales, premium pricing’ for surrounding areas – experts

With the development expected to open in approximately three years, according to the developer, the master plan covers around 11 million square metres and is valued at AED180 billion.

With the city already home to thriving retail districts including Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates, the new development would mean a “rebalancing of gravity,” Yogesh Bulchandani, CEO and founder of Sunrise Capital told Arabian Business.

“Tourism, retail and investment flows that have historically clustered around Sheikh Zayed Road and Downtown will increasingly extend toward Creek Harbour, deepening – rather than diluting – Dubai’s overall real estate story,” he said.

Dubai Mall currently remains the world’s most visited shopping district with over 100 million visitors in 2025. Malls are a major component of Dubai’s tourism strategy with tourists heavily engaging retail outlets during visits.

However, Balchandani argued that the mall will not be “competing for the same single day visitor” but instead, “extending the stay.”

“Tourists can now plan multi-day retail and entertainment itineraries that move from Downtown to Sheikh Zayed Road to Creek Harbour, increasing total spend in the emirate rather than fragmenting it. That multi-nodal experience is exactly what underpins Dubai’s ambition to be among the world’s top three cities for tourism, business and quality of life,” he explained.

Dubai Square Mall redefines retail

The mall will feature breakthrough technologies and innovative concepts in retail, dining and entertainment. It will also be connected to Dubai Creek Tower, another mega skyscraper being built by Emaar.

Dubai Square Mall is not “simply a retail addition,” Xu Ma Founder and Chairman, Tomorrow World Properties said in an exclusive interview with Arabian Business.

“At this scale, it can reshape visitor flows, strengthen Dubai Creek Harbour as a full destination, and create a new centre of gravity for shopping, dining, entertainment, and tourism beyond the traditional hubs,” he said.

The development is expected to feature the world’s first drive-through concept allowing vehicle access to select retail areas and integration with electric vehicle infrastructure.

“With next-generation mobility, entertainment and hospitality embedded into the concept, Dubai Square reinforces Dubai’s positioning as a 24/7 tourism, retail and investment hub for the region,” Bulchandani said.

Economists and urban planners point to the role of mall economies in supporting tourism and broader city economics. Recent data from the Department of Economy and Tourism (DET) showed a large majority of international visitors stopped at Dubai Mall pointing towards a strong link between retail destinations and visitor spending.

“In the first five years, the immediate contribution is economic activity, jobs, and a wider tourism pull if the offering is truly distinctive. Large destination assets also generate secondary impact through supply chains, hospitality demand, events, and business inflows tied to increased visitation,” Ma explained.

He asserted that the contribution extends beyond economic to “confidence and momentum.”

“When a mega anchor is delivered inside a master community, it typically accelerates residential interest, supports higher quality mixed-use development, and attracts global operators who may not enter a market unless the platform is big enough,” he added.

Scale risks in mega malls

The integration with transport infrastructure and broader urban context also plays a key role. However, at such a large scale, questions of risk arise but Ma explained that, “Scale becomes a risk when the customer journey is not effortless. If access, circulation, parking, wayfinding, and the comfort of moving through the space are not world-class, size can feel overwhelming rather than exciting.”

Bulchandani believes that “Scale becomes a risk when it runs ahead of genuine demand and clear differentiation,” potentially leading to “cannibalisation between assets, weaker trading densities and downward pressure on rentals.”

“In other words, big for the sake of big is not a strategy,” he added.

Experts recommend several safeguards including clear positioning, strong transport connectivity and a curated mix of retail, F&B and entertainment.

“When a project is embedded in an integrated master plan, with residential, office, hospitality and public realm all feeding into it, scale becomes an ecosystem advantage rather than a standalone risk,” Bulchandani explained.

With leasing strategy also posing as a “second risk” Ma clarified, “When scale focuses on volume of stores rather than curating unique experiences, retail becomes repetitive and vulnerable to online substitution. The advantage of scale only holds when it delivers variety, discovery, and reasons to return regularly, not only during peak tourism.”

Retail expansion drives wider economic growth

Current market activity suggests retailers and property owners are accepting the need for investment across Dubai’s established malls. Majid Al Futtaim is investing AED5 billion on expansion and upgrades to maintain its position in the city’s retail network.

“The fact that Mall of the Emirates is making a major investment to transform and expand indicates the market expects growth and reinvention, not a zero-sum outcome,” he said.

Economic effects beyond retail are being anticipated. In its first five years of operation Bulchandani said Dubai Square is expected to act as a “demand engine” for residential, hospitality and office assets in Creek Harbour as the district matures.

“We would expect higher occupancy, stronger retail sales and premium pricing across surrounding residential, hospitality and office assets as the project matures and stabilises,” he said.

“The combination of visitor footfall, job creation and capital expenditure around the mall is likely to translate into billions of dirhams in direct and indirect economic activity, supporting Dubai’s non-oil GDP and real estate transaction volumes. As the commercial core of an AED180 billion master development spanning over 11 million square metres – around three times the size of Downtown Dubai – its multiplier effect on services, logistics, tourism and professional sectors should be significant,” he added.

Both developers believe that redistribution of value in Dubai’s multi-centric urban model is likely to reinforce, not undermine, existing hubs.

Dubai has proved successful in absorbing several mega projects “when they are part of coherent, integrated master plans.”

Dubai Square advances long-term strategy

“Downtown, Dubai Marina and Business Bay are all examples of that evolution. Dubai Creek Harbour is already emerging as one of the city’s fastest-growing submarkets, and Dubai Square is the anchor that completes that story,” Bulchandani said.

“With upcoming metro connectivity, waterfront living and limited direct comparables at this scale, Dubai Square is more likely to bring new demand pools – regional tourists, new residents, global brands – than simply shift value away from existing hubs. In our view, it supports a more multi-centric Dubai, where different districts serve different segments and trip purposes, rather than a zero-sum game between them,” he added.

Looking ahead, experts point to further development of adjacent plots for branded residences, hotels and Grade A offices alongside a renewed investment in upgrading surrounding stock.

“Over time, that creates a more layered, resilient market around the creek, with a mix of price points and product types anchored by a globally recognisable destination,” Bulchandani explained.

Dubai Square is advancing as part of a long trajectory of integrated urban development in Dubai that aligns major retail, tourism and real estate investments with broader strategies to strengthen non-oil economic sectors and global visitor appeal.

“For investors, this supports a more diversified, multi-nodal Dubai. Portfolios can be spread across Downtown, Marina, JLT, Creek Harbour and emerging corridors, each with distinct tenant bases, yield profiles and cycles. That diversification is healthy for both investors and the city’s long-term economic resilience,” Bulchandani said.

For Dubai Square, “If the development delivers a balanced destination that works for families, residents, tourists, and weekday life, and if it integrates smoothly with the Creek Harbour ecosystem, it can become a powerful contributor to Dubai’s next chapter of urban growth,” Ma concluded.