Business
SCB EIC Anticipates Further Rate Cut in Early Next Year
The MPC unanimously decided to lower the policy rate from 1.50% to 1.25%. SCB EIC anticipates an additional policy rate reduction in the first half of 2026.
In short: Thailand’s central bank is cutting rates to counter a clear slowdown, with inflation staying weak, credit contracting, and the baht strengthening. The MPC is more cautious than before, signaling readiness to act further if risks intensify.
🏦 Economic Outlook (2025–2027)
- Growth slowdown: Private consumption moderates with income growth; exports hit by U.S. tariffs.
- Risks: Flooding in the south, political uncertainty delaying FY2027 budget.
- 2027 forecast: Economy expected to grow only 2.3% year-on-year, below potential.
💸 Inflation & Credit
- Headline inflation: Negative this year, below target next year due to lower energy prices and subsidies.
- Deflation risk: Still limited, but MPC now explicitly monitoring demand-side pressures.
- Credit contraction: Weak loan demand and tight lending standards.
💱 Currency & External Factors
- Thai baht appreciated more than regional currencies, linked to U.S. monetary policy and local factors.
- MPC is unusually signaling possible measures to manage baht appreciation.
Policy Rate Cut to Support Economy
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously lowered the policy rate from 1.50% to 1.25% to alleviate financial pressures amid a slowing economy and rising risks. This decision seeks to ease debt burdens on vulnerable groups and enhance the impact of financial measures. The MPC remains prepared to adjust policies as necessary, taking into account inflation trends, long-term financial stability, and the constraints of limited policy tools.
Economic Outlook and Risks
Thailand’s economy is expected to slow significantly due to weaker private consumption and adverse effects from U.S. tariffs on exports. Additional risks include flooding in the south and political uncertainty, which may delay next year’s budget enactment. Inflation is projected to stay below target, averaging negative in 2025, but deflation risk is limited. Credit continues to contract due to lower loan demand and tighter lending standards. The Thai baht has appreciated more than regional currencies.
MPC’s New Communication Tone
The MPC’s latest communication adopts a more cautious and dovish tone. It highlights downside economic risks and closely monitors deflation and currency appreciation—unusual concerns previously overlooked. The committee also acknowledged demand-side pressures reducing inflation support and signaled potential measures to address baht appreciation, signaling increased vigilance about financial conditions.
