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Tax season presents boom-or-bust test

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Tax season presents boom-or-bust test

Customers near a Ford Maverick pickup truck at a Ford dealership in Richmond, California, US, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

DETROIT – The strength of the U.S. automotive industry will face an early test this spring that has nothing to do with cars or trucks.

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With tax season starting, industry experts are projecting that some Americans, many of whom have been priced out of the new vehicle market, will use anticipated higher tax returns to purchase a new or used vehicle.

Extra cash on hand could lend a needed boost to an industry that’s suffering from slowing vehicle sales — or it could reveal continued problems for the automotive industry with inflated prices and consumers still reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.

“Their new tax bill is actually going to be less, and they’re going to be getting more in their tax return. It’s going to be a little bit of a surprise, we think, for a lot of potential buyers out there,” said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough at a recent auto analyst conference.

The average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, compared to the same point in 2025, according to early filing data. As of Feb. 6, the average refund amount was $2,290, compared with $2,065 reported about one year prior.

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The increases were expected under tax changes by the Trump administration, including the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July. That legislation removed taxes on overtime and tips and allowed eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest paid on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased, among other adjustments.

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Many of the tax changes were made retroactive to January 2025, which means taxpayers may have withheld more than they will ultimately owe.

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“Although it’s a bit of an unknown, it feels like it could be really beneficial to vehicle sales, particularly in that sort of Q1-Q2 timeframe,” said David Oakley, GlobalData manager of Americas vehicle sales forecasts.

March is historically one of the top months for U.S. vehicle sales, especially for used vehicles. The month has represented 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales on average over the past 12 years, according to Cox, trailing only the month of December at 9.3% of sales.

Many of the recent tax changes also assist middle- and higher-income consumers who may decide to pull ahead a vehicle purchase. The industry saw a similar dynamic during the Covid pandemic when the Trump administration issued many Americans $1,400 stimulus checks.

Back then, though, federal interest rates were near zero compared to the current Federal Reserve funds rate of 3.5%–3.75% and inventory of new vehicles was low. Now, with higher borrowing costs, but improved inventory, the equation could be different.

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More buyers are agreeing to longer-term loans amid higher financing costs and prices. Putting down extra cash ahead of time can help lower monthly payments, which Carmax’s Edmunds reports reached a record of $772 per month for new vehicles during the fourth quarter.

The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. was hovering around $50,000 toward the end of last year, up 30% from the start of 2020, according to Cox.

“What we don’t know is with consumer finance so stressed already, is that extra money already spent? Whether that’s going to be in the pockets. It’s a really mixed bag out there,” Chesbrough said.

Consumers could choose to use higher tax returns to pay off credit card debt — which nationally stands at a record level of $1.28 trillion, according to a report last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — or replenish their savings after a period of persistent inflation.

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U.S. consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, driven by intense anxiety over high prices and a weakening labor market.

“It’s only confident people, people who feel comfortable about their economic fortunes of the economy of the United States, that are going to be interested in taking out a $40,000 or $50,000 auto loan,” Chesbrough said. “It’s a very difficult situation right now.”

– CNBC’s Kate Dore contributed to this report.

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Depop sold to eBay at 25% discount to 2021 valuation

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Depop sold to eBay at 25% discount to 2021 valuation

Depop has been sold to eBay for $1.2bn, marking a 25 per cent discount to the price paid five years ago by Etsy.

Etsy acquired the London-founded second-hand fashion platform for $1.6bn in 2021 at the height of pandemic-era ecommerce growth. The resale comes as Etsy refocuses on its core handmade and vintage marketplace.

Founded in 2011 by English-Italian entrepreneur Simon Beckerman, Depop built a strong following among younger consumers seeking sustainable and affordable fashion. The platform counted roughly seven million active buyers at the end of last year, nearly 90 per cent of whom were under 34.

For eBay, the deal represents an attempt to deepen its appeal with Gen Z shoppers and strengthen its position in the fast-growing resale segment. Fashion accounts for more than $10bn of eBay’s annual gross merchandise volumes, with second-hand clothing a key driver of growth.

Jamie Iannone, chief executive of eBay, said Depop would benefit from the group’s scale and operational capabilities. “We are confident that as part of eBay, Depop will be well positioned for long-term growth,” he said.

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However, analysts suggest the acquisition is partly defensive. Aliyah Siddika of GlobalData described the transaction as “as much about defence as growth”, noting Depop faces intense competition from rivals such as Vinted.

Etsy shares rose nearly 10 per cent after the announcement, reflecting investor support for the decision to exit a business that has delivered lower profitability than its core operations. Major shareholders in Etsy include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and activist investor Elliott.

Depop is expected to retain its brand and operate with a degree of autonomy under eBay’s ownership, subject to regulatory approval. The all-cash transaction is scheduled to close in the second quarter of 2026.

Peter Semple, Depop’s chief executive, said the deal marked a new chapter. “This transaction is a testament to the growth we have delivered and the strength of our brand and community,” he said.

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The sale underscores the shifting valuations within ecommerce, as pandemic-era premiums give way to a more measured approach to growth and profitability.


Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

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Kraft Heinz under construction

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Kraft Heinz under construction

New CEO says company will “stop being a donor of market share.”

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Form 8K Nucor Corp For: 20 February

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Form 8K Nucor Corp For: 20 February

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Fed’s favored inflation gauge showed price pressures stayed elevated in December

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Fed's favored inflation gauge showed price pressures stayed elevated in December

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge remained elevated in December as price pressures continued to pose a challenge for consumers.

The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.4% in December on a monthly basis and is up 2.9% from a year ago. Those figures were both slightly hotter than the estimate of LSEG economists, who predicted 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively.

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Core PCE, which excludes volatile measurements of food and energy prices, was up 0.4% on a monthly basis and rose 3% year over year. Both figures were hotter than the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who estimated the gauges would rise 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively.

Federal Reserve policymakers are focusing on the PCE headline figure as they try to bring inflation back to their long-run target of 2%, though they view core data as a better indicator of inflation.

Headline PCE has trended up to 2.9% after readings of 2.8% in November and 2.7% in October. Core PCE readings were 2.8% or 2.9% dating back to May before it reached 3% in December.

This is a developing story about the December PCE inflation report. Please check back for updates.

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US economy grew 1.4% in fourth quarter, Commerce Department finds

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US economy grew 1.4% in fourth quarter, Commerce Department finds

The U.S. economy grew at a much slower than expected pace in the fourth quarter, according to new data released on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its advance estimate for fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which found the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, which runs from October through December.

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Economists surveyed by LSEG had expected the economy to grow at a 3% rate in the quarter. The fourth quarter’s 1.4% growth was slower than the 4.4% GDP growth recorded in the third quarter.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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When the retail staff can't help you

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When the retail staff can't help you

This customer might be feeling trolled, in this scene from Small Prophets.

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Form 6K VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LTD CO For: 20 February

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Form 6K VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LTD CO For: 20 February

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Lobbying firm co-founded by Mandelson goes into administration

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Lobbying firm co-founded by Mandelson faces collapse

Global Counsel’s clients cut ties with the firm over Lord Mandelson’s links with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

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Costa Coffee confirms expansion in Wales with new outlets

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It said it plans to open four new coffee shops in Wales this year

Costa introducing £13 rule across coffee shops from Thursday

Costa Coffee.

Costa Coffee is expanding its presence in Wales with new outlets this year as part of a £1.5m investment creating 40 new jobs. The first has seen the opening of a new store at a Sainsbury’s supermarket in Newport, creating seven jobs.

At least three further stores are set to open in the coming months, including two new drive thru restaurants at Border Retail Park in Wrexham annd Buttington Cross, Welshpool. In the summer Costa will also open a new store at at Sainsbury’s supermarket in Rhyl. It is also investing £1m to upgrade nine existing stores in the first half of 2026.

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Matthew Cyprus, Costa Coffee’s regional operations director for south west of England, Wales and Midlands, said: “Wales remains a key growth region for Costa Coffee, and we’re proud to be continuing our investment across South, Mid and North Wales this year.

“The opening of our Costa Coffee store in Newport Sainsbury’s is the first of several planned for 2026, as we expand our footprint and bring Costa Coffee to even more communities. These new stores will not only provide greater choice and convenience for customers, but also create valuable job opportunities locally.”

READ MORE: New £50m defence growth deal for Wales designed to boost SME supply chainREAD MORE: WRU will not conclude takeover deal for Cardiff Rugby until after the Six Nations

Costa has announced that it will increase pay from April for over 16,000 team members in its 1,500 UK company-owned stores. This is the seventh pay increase for store team members since 2021.

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The £7m investment increases the pay for baristas to £13.12 per hour, up from £12.60 per hour. The company’s more experienced staff, who are team leaders and coffee trainers, will see their hourly pay increase from between £12.93 and £13.43 to £13.75. Costa Coffee Store managers will see an overall 3% pay increase.

Costa Coffee’s managing director for Ireland and the UK, Nick Orrin, said: “Our talented baristas and team members are the heart of Costa Coffee, with every drink shaped by their expertise, skill and passion.

“This latest pay uplift reflects our ongoing commitment to recognise, reward and invest in the people who deliver great coffee experiences and daily rituals for our customers across the UK.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “It’s fantastic to hear that Costa Coffee are recognising and supporting their hard-working staff with this pay increase. Hard work should be rewarded, which is why from April, our increase to the National Living Wage will benefit 2.4 million people, with full-time workers on the National Living Wage being £900 a year better off.”

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Founded in London by Italian brothers Sergio and Bruno Costa in 1971, Costa Coffee has a presence in 50 countries globally with more than 4,000 coffee shops, of which 2,700 are in the UK and Ireland.

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Form 13G Tyra Biosciences For: 20 February

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Form 13G Tyra Biosciences For: 20 February

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