Thailand’s GDP falls short of expectations, expanding by only 1.2% in Q3

Thailand’s economy grew only 1.2% year-over-year in Q3 2025, significantly missing the 1.6% forecast and slowing from 2.8% in the previous quarter. The country experienced its first quarterly GDP contraction (-0.6%) since late 2022, with all major economic sectors—exports, manufacturing, construction, government spending, and tourism—showing weakness.

Key Points

• Thailand’s Q3 2025 GDP growth of 1.2% missed expectations and marked a slowdown from the previous quarter’s 2.8%.
• The economy experienced its first quarterly contraction (-0.6%) since late 2022, with all major sectors—exports, manufacturing, construction, government spending, and tourism—showing weakness.
• Key challenges include US tariffs, a tougher export environment, political instability, and a decline in tourism.

The slowdown is attributed to US tariffs, challenging export conditions, political instability, and reduced tourism, prompting Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to launch a 44-billion-baht stimulus program while the new central bank chief addresses high household debt.

What caused Thailand’s GDP to miss growth estimates?

Thailand’s GDP missed growth estimates due to several factors, including softer factory output, a decline in foreign tourist arrivals, and a challenging export environment. These issues were compounded by the impact of US tariffs and political instability following the fall of the previous government. Additionally, key economic sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and tourism experienced slowdowns, contributing to the overall economic deceleration.

How will the 44-billion-baht stimulus program help the economy?

The 44-billion-baht stimulus program is designed to drive domestic consumption and accelerate economic recovery by encouraging increased household spending. This initiative seeks to mitigate the effects of declining exports, weakened tourism, and reduced manufacturing activity, while also addressing the pressing issue of high household debt. By bolstering demand, the program aims to stabilize economic growth and provide support to critical sectors currently facing challenges. Alongside this effort, the central bank is implementing measures to stabilize financial markets and ease debt burdens, ensuring a comprehensive approach to revitalizing the economy.