Business
The Golden Thumb Rule | Growth at a reasonable price is my rule; overpaying can destroy returns even in bull markets: Srinivas Rao Ravuri
In this edition of The Golden Thumb Rule, Ravuri emphasises that sustainable wealth creation is not about chasing momentum but about adhering to Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP).
He cautions that even in a rising market, overpaying for future growth can erode returns and hurt long-term compounding.
Drawing on market data from the past five years — where headline indices doubled but a large share of stocks delivered muted or negative returns — Ravuri underscores the importance of entry price, margin of safety, and disciplined asset allocation.
He also shares practical thumb rules on acceptable PE multiples, navigating market euphoria, and striking the right balance between time in the market and valuation-driven investing. Edited Excerpts –
Kshitij Anand: If you had to define valuation discipline in one sentence, what would be your golden thumb rule for investors?
Srinivas Rao Ravuri: Our golden rule is Growth at a Reasonable Price, or what we call GARP, which is what we follow at Bajaj Life. Before I dwell deeper into this, I just want to make a point. Given the markets we have seen over the last five years, the Nifty has doubled and delivered about 14% compounded returns.
Ignoring the COVID phase, from Jan 2021 to now, Nifty 500 companies have doubled. But within that, a good 40% of companies — around 200 — have delivered negative returns over these five years when the market has doubled. And about 15% of the companies have delivered very healthy returns.
So, the point I am making is that if you buy at the right price, compounding will automatically work in your favour. But if you overpay and pay today entirely for expected future growth, you can lose money even in a good market.
Kshitij Anand: Why do most investors abandon valuation discipline during bull markets, and what is the thumb rule to avoid that? There is a saying that when everyone is talking about markets and giving tips, that is the time you should actually bail out of the markets.
Srinivas Rao Ravuri: Well, we are investors and we are human beings. And we have emotions. Markets are governed by fear, greed, and, as some people say, career risk. In bull markets, we tend to see people ignoring time-tested principles of investing and valuation metrics like price-to-earnings and start focusing on narratives instead.
In fact, even professional investors go through a relative valuation phase — saying X company is trading at 60 PE and it is cheap because Y company in the same space is trading at 80 PE, so it looks better. I think that is one challenge we face. Another issue is that people believe they will ride the flavour or momentum of the season, citing examples like defence, infrastructure, and real estate. They start thinking this time is different and that these sectors will deliver returns forever. These are things we need to be mindful of.
We are here to make money, and the first principle to keep in mind is: do not lose money.
Kshitij Anand: Coming back to your first point about the right price to buy — what is your thumb rule to decide when a stock is too expensive to buy, regardless of how strong the story is?
Srinivas Rao Ravuri: Here again, I would like to use a simple price-to-earnings metric to determine whether a stock is expensive or not. For a steady-state business, I would say paying 33 times earnings is fine. What is the logic? When we say the price-to-earnings ratio is 33, we are essentially talking about a 3% earnings yield.
For a growth company — and investing in equity is about investing for growth — a 3% earnings yield plus growth is acceptable to me. Within that, for a relatively new business or a new segment where high growth is visible today, maybe you can pay up to 50 PE. Anything more than that raises questions about the margin of safety. That is what I would like to avoid as far as possible.
Kshitij Anand: I understand. In fact, even in new fund offers and IPOs, we see a lot of companies trading at much higher PEs than what you just highlighted as a benchmark. Any word of advice or caution for investors there?
Srinivas Rao Ravuri: Absolutely. I think what we need to keep in mind is that high-quality companies can also be poor investments if bought at the wrong price. As I mentioned earlier, we are already seeing that happen. The first principle is avoiding big mistakes.
Companies in new-age sectors, catering to evolving markets and demonstrating long-term growth potential, tend to trade at premium valuations. But what is important is sustainability and also keeping in mind the concept of mean reversion.
Kshitij Anand: Now, let me also ask — investors do end up buying stocks that may be available or trading at a premium valuation. It does happen. So, what is your thumb rule on paying a premium valuation? When can we say it is justified, and when is it dangerous?
Srinivas Rao Ravuri: When there is a long-term reinvestment runway — meaning the durability of business growth and earnings growth is visible — I do not mind paying a premium. Let us say there are companies addressing a large market, with a unique business proposition and superior management. That, in turn, means the company can deliver.
If you look at the last 10 years, the Nifty has delivered around 15% earnings growth. But here is a company that, given all these positives, is likely to deliver double that earnings growth. In such a case, I may have to pay a higher price. However, what we need to keep in mind is whether this growth is seasonal, cyclical, or much more long-lasting. If it is cyclical, we should be extremely mindful of paying a high price.
Kshitij Anand: And how should investors think about valuation in high-growth stocks? What is the golden thumb rule to avoid overpaying for growth?
Srinivas Rao Ravuri: First, focus on the business model — whether the underlying business has the potential to deliver sustainable long-term growth. Even if it does, it is important to remember that we cannot be masters of everything. I am a professional investor, and even then, we are not here to capture every possible upside from every possible company. Understanding the company and knowing what we are good at is important.
Focusing on the margin of safety is an essential part of risk management. A company may look great on the surface, and you may see brokerages, media, and everyone talking about how great the business is. But ultimately, valuations are paramount. As I said earlier, keeping it simple — paying more than 50 PE means you are extrapolating current growth for many years ahead, and your returns may end up depending more on PE expansion than on earnings growth.
Kshitij Anand: During times of euphoria — especially post-2020, when markets saw a strong rally and SIP contributions rose sharply to around ₹31,000 crore — many investors started investing aggressively. For someone investing in individual stocks, what is the thumb rule for valuation during such euphoric phases? Should one buy less, hold tight, stay out, or wait for dips? What would be your advice?
Srinivas Rao Ravuri: The first thing to focus on, even more than stocks, is asset allocation. What percentage of your savings or surplus are you allocating to each asset class? I have seen people debating very passionately about a particular stock or equity mutual fund, while only 5% of their surplus is actually invested in equities.
Asset allocation is the starting point. That is where investors should seek expert advice from financial advisors to determine their risk appetite and decide what percentage of their money should go into each asset class.
Second, during euphoric times, it is important to reduce exposure to equities and increase allocation to fixed income. Within equities, what we do at Bajaj Life is gradually shift portfolios from high-PE, cyclical companies to more stable businesses, such as utilities, and increase the overall quality of the portfolio.
So, first, adjust at the asset-class level. Second, within equities, move toward relatively safer and less volatile sectors and stocks. That is what we believe investors should do.
Kshitij Anand: And for long-term investors, is valuation about entry price or time in the market? What is the golden balance rule there?
Srinivas Rao Ravuri: I would say time in the market builds wealth, but the entry price determines how well it compounds. Staying invested is essential, but valuation defines the starting yield on capital. To that extent, a good entry point with a margin of safety reduces your downside risk. Our approach is to own businesses that generate sustainable growth, but to enter them thoughtfully.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Business
Instant redemption helps lure retail investors to liquid funds
Enter the world of Liquid and Overnight funds, which have long been the playground of corporate treasuries for parking idle funds. Now, these debt mutual funds are catching the interest of individual investors, who are shifting the ready to use cash to these products. And this is thanks to a feature called Instant Redemption, which is steadily being seen as a game changer.
“The facility makes it easier to use mutual funds for everyday cash needs, while retaining the simplicity of an overnight fund,” said Vishal Jain, CEO of Zerodha Mutual Fund
With Instant Redemption, investors could log into a fund house app, request a withdrawal, and within minutes, the money hits their bank account.
AgenciesDouble attraction These debt funds offer fast cash in addition to better returns
“An investor can use this feature for any emergency funding and yet make his idle money earn some return,” said A Balasubramanian, MD and CEO of Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund.
The math is clearly in favour of a liquid fund with an instant redemption facility. These funds are currently yielding between 6.5% and 7%. Industry officials said the facility is gaining popularity among investors, especially the younger lot looking for superior speed of transaction. Consider a volatile trading day. Equities are down 2%, and an investor wants to buy the dip.
This feature will unlock some of her cash in a debt fund immediately. Typically, redemptions done through this facility hit the bank account in less than 30 minutes. In contrast, if an investor goes for a standard “switch” to an equity fund, the transaction might not process until the next day. “On sharp market down days, Instant Redemption allows investors to withdraw and invest in equity-oriented funds with same-day NAV,” said Santosh Pandey, head of Client Service and Operations at DSP Mutual Fund, sees this play out often.
Still, the adoption is limited. This is partly because the feature isn’t yet integrated into many third-party distributor websites. To use it, investors generally have to go directly to the fund house’s own website or app. Moreover, there is a cap on how much money can be instantly redeemed.
Most funds allow you to instantly only pull out 90% of your investment value, capped at `50,000 per day. Anything beyond that follows the standard one-day payout cycle. That may not appeal to the more affluent investors who insist on higher anytime liquidity limits.
Business
Infleqtion Makes Its Trading Debut. Another Quantum Stock Is in the Public Market.
Infleqtion Makes Its Trading Debut. Another Quantum Stock Is in the Public Market.
Business
Godfrey Phillips India shares rocket 31% in just 3 sessions! Here’s what’s fuelling the rally
The sharp rise follows media reports indicating that companies have raised prices to pass on higher costs to consumers. The price hikes are aimed at offsetting the recent excise duty increase, reducing the expected EBIT decline to around 2%, compared with earlier estimates of 8–15%.
Godfrey Phillips India has raised the price of Marlboro Compact from Rs 9.5 per stick to Rs 11.5 per stick, according to a news report. ITC is likely to raise cigarette prices by 20–40% across brands, with fresh shipments expected to reach the market soon. Retailers are also selling existing inventory at higher prices.
These developments follow the government’s notification ending the GST compensation cess and rolling out a new tobacco tax regime on February 1, as reported by ETNow.
Under the new framework, excise duties on cigarettes were restructured to a range of Rs 2,050 to Rs 8,500 per 1,000 sticks, alongside a 40% GST. This has materially raised the overall tax burden on cigarettes, triggering concerns over demand, margins, and the risk of increased illicit trade.
Adding to the unease is a technical change in the National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) announced in the Budget.
The government raised the statutory NCCD rate on tobacco products from 25% to 60%, with effect from May 1, 2026. However, the Budget also clarified that the effective duty rate will continue at 25% through a notification, meaning there is no immediate increase in tax outgo for cigarette companies. In simple terms, this is not a tax hike today, but a future enabling provision. The government has created room to raise the duty later without changing the law again.Despite the recent rally, Godfrey Phillips share price is down over 10% since the beginning of the year. ITC, India’s largest cigarette maker, saw its share price edge marginally lower on February 19. VST Industries, on the other hand, rose 0.3%.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Business
Deadly Avalanche Kills 8 Backcountry Skiers
Eight backcountry skiers were confirmed dead and a ninth remained missing and presumed dead Wednesday after a massive avalanche swept through their guided group in the Sierra Nevada mountains northwest of Lake Tahoe, marking the deadliest avalanche in modern California history and one of the worst in the United States in nearly half a century.

The tragedy unfolded Tuesday morning when a football-field-sized slide buried nine members of a 15-person party — 11 clients and four guides from Blackbird Mountain Guides — near Castle Peak and Frog Lake in Nevada County, about 10 miles north of Lake Tahoe. The group was on the final day of a three-day trek, having stayed at the Frog Lake huts since Sunday and heading back to the trailhead when the avalanche struck around 11:30 a.m.
Nevada County Sheriff Shannan Moon said rescuers located the bodies of eight victims — seven women and one man, ranging in age from 30 to 55 — clustered relatively close together amid “pretty horrific” conditions of heavy snowfall, gale-force winds and low visibility. The ninth skier, whose identity and gender were not released, was presumed to have perished given the extreme weather, unstable snowpack and prolonged burial time.
Six survivors — five women and one man, also aged 30 to 55 — were rescued about six hours later, around 5:30 p.m. Tuesday. They had built a makeshift shelter and were found with various injuries; two required hospital treatment, one released Tuesday night and the other expected to be discharged Wednesday.
The operation involved nearly 100 first responders from multiple agencies, who navigated treacherous terrain on skis and used avalanche beacons and cellphone signals to locate the group. Recovery efforts were hampered by ongoing blizzard conditions, with bodies still trapped under snow and additional avalanche risks preventing immediate extraction.
The Sierra Avalanche Center had issued a warning for the Central Sierra Nevada effective Tuesday through 5 a.m. Thursday, citing heavy new snow — up to 40 inches in nearby Soda Springs since Monday — combined with strong winds and unstable layers. The slide occurred on a north-facing slope at about 8,300 feet elevation, classified as D2.5 destructive size, capable of burying or killing people.
This incident surpasses previous deadly California avalanches, including the 1982 Alpine Meadows resort slide that killed seven and a 1911 event in Mono County that claimed eight lives. Nationally, it ranks as the deadliest since 1981, when 11 climbers died on Washington’s Mount Rainier, and the fourth-worst in U.S. history per records from the Colorado Avalanche Information Center.
The Castle Peak area, popular for backcountry recreation in the Tahoe National Forest, has seen frequent slides; the Sierra Avalanche Center documented at least 50 avalanches in the broader Lake Tahoe region since September 2025. A January 2026 slide nearby killed a snowmobiler.
Authorities have not released victim names pending family notifications. Blackbird Mountain Guides, a respected outfitter, has not commented publicly. The group was experienced, equipped with standard safety gear including beacons, probes and shovels, but officials emphasized that backcountry travel in high-risk conditions carries inherent dangers even with preparation.
Search efforts shifted to recovery mode Wednesday as weather remained severe, with forecasters warning of continued instability and potential for more slides. Nearby resorts like Sierra-at-Tahoe closed for the day due to the storm, which dumped over 5.5 feet of snow in recent days.
The incident highlights ongoing avalanche hazards amid a powerful West Coast winter storm system. Experts urge backcountry users to check forecasts, carry gear and travel in groups with communication plans. The National Avalanche Center reports 25-30 U.S. avalanche deaths annually on average, with California ranking eighth in fatalities since 1950.
As recovery continues under challenging conditions, officials expressed deep sorrow for the victims and support for survivors and families. The Nevada County Sheriff’s Office leads the investigation, with assistance from the U.S. Forest Service and other agencies.
Business
APA Group Stapled Securities (APAJF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Operator
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the APA Group 2026 Half Year Results. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Adam Watson, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Adam Watson
CEO, MD & Director
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for today’s first half FY ’26 results presentation. I’m joined by Garrick Rollason, our CFO, as well as our Investor Relations team.
Let me start by acknowledging the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, traditional custodians of the land on which I’m speaking. First Nations people have taken care of our lands and waterways for the past 60,000 years. We acknowledge and pay our respects to their elders, past and present.
As always, I’ll start today’s presentation with a safety share on Slide 4. To prepare for extreme weather conditions, we conduct a summer readiness program, including activities such as site clearing and weed prevention. I’m pleased to say that we haven’t had any weather-related customer impact so far this summer. I’d like to thank the APA operations team for the fantastic work they do to keep our people and our assets safe and to keep our customers’ operations going 24/7.
Suffice to say, we are very
Business
NRW posts bumper 40pc profit increase
Civil contractor and mining services firm NRW has posted a 40 per cent increase in profit for the first half of the year, buoyed by acquisitions, the Olympics and data centres.
Business
Cashed up Gold Fields eyes WA mines
South African-headquartered Gold Fields is closely watching Western Australian gold sector’s consolidation, with $2.5 billion in the bank.
Business
Form DEF 14A Inogen Inc For: 19 February

Form DEF 14A Inogen Inc For: 19 February
Business
Did Meta Target Teens? Mark Zuckerberg Grilled Over Instagram’s Alleged Addictive Design
Social media addiction is highly subjective since it depends on a person’s experience and emotional state. While this is true, the platform we use also contributes to the addiction that we feel, like in the case of Meta apps.
Earlier this week, Mark Zuckerberg testified before a Los Angeles jury, defending Meta Platforms against allegations that its social media platforms deliberately targeted young users and fostered addictive behavior.
The high-profile lawsuit, which also names YouTube as a defendant, could influence thousands of similar cases pending across the United States.
Meta is Allegedly Targeting Young Users Intentionally

At the center of the case are claims that Instagram and Facebook prioritized teen engagement despite internal research identifying potential mental health risks.
According to CNN, plaintiffs argue the company knowingly implemented strategies designed to increase time spent on its platforms, even as studies suggested negative effects on younger users.
Internal Research and Email Evidence
During cross-examination, attorneys presented internal emails and research reports indicating that company leaders closely monitored teen activity and explored ways to boost engagement.
A 2019 email questioned whether Meta’s enforcement of age restrictions was sufficiently rigorous, suggesting that weak oversight undermined claims that the company was doing everything possible to protect minors.
Another internal study reportedly found that some teens described feeling “hooked” on Instagram, with usage patterns resembling behavioral addiction.
Zuckerberg disputed the plaintiffs’ interpretation of the documents, arguing that the materials were taken out of context. He emphasized that certain internal findings also reflected positive user experiences and maintained that Meta has consistently invested in safety improvements.
The business tycoon reiterated that children under 13 are prohibited from using the platforms and account for only a minimal portion of advertising revenue.
Teen Growth Strategy and Engagement Metrics
BBC reported in another article that additional emails from 2015 and 2017 revealed discussions about prioritizing teen growth and increasing time spent on Meta’s platforms.
Zuckerberg acknowledged that earlier corporate goals emphasized engagement metrics but stated that the company has since shifted toward promoting healthier digital habits.
He highlighted safety tools introduced in 2018, including daily usage limits, notification controls, and parental supervision features. However, internal data presented in court suggested that adoption of these tools among teens remained relatively low.
Originally published on Tech Times
Business
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