Trend shift: Dubai real estate decisions are becoming more logic-based

A new market report by fäm Properties says 2026 will be a year that rewards projects and communities offering genuine connectivity, strong fundamentals, credible execution, clear lifestyle, value and true scarcity.

And while luxury remains the most resilient sector, the report – which is based on analytics from DXBInteract, a go-to source of market intelligence using Dubai Land Department-verified data – the maturing market will penalise anything built on hype alone.

Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, commented: “In 2025, momentum drove decisions, but 2026 will be the year when buyers and investors operate with far more logic and discipline. The strongest projects are those where fundamentals align, and where execution risk is low.

“Rather than being influenced by brand names alone, buyers will assess the full equation, price versus value, payment plan realism, construction consistency, location, and developer credibility.

Some of the major trends, based on the 2025 data are…

Record-breaking transaction year: Sales hit an all-time high, as 197,263 deals worth AED624.1 billion (US$170 billion) were made for a period of 11 months from January to November, eclipsing previous annual records with a month remaining.

Momentum-driven market: Buyer decisions were largely fuelled by market momentum rather than deep analysis of fundamentals, developer track record, or long-term usability.

Rise of the end-user: End-user demand strengthened, particularly among families choosing ownership over rent, adding stability to established and well-serviced communities.

Global capital influx: Strong inflows from UHNW individuals and global families, with capital coming from Europe, the UK, CIS, India, Africa, and from North America.

Commercial real estate expansion: Commercial property continued to grow, driven by rising demand from construction, logistics, professional services, and a broader expansion of the real economy.

The report then went on to make the following key predictions for 2026…

Shift to logic-based buying: The market will transition from momentum to full-spectrum selectivity, where pricing, payment plans, construction quality, developer credibility, and end-user logic will dictate decisions.

Extreme luxury resilience: Prime villas, branded residences, and waterfront assets remain undersupplied, thus sustaining strong pricing, liquidity, and resale velocity.

Polarised developer landscape: Tier-1 developers, with proven delivery records, will dominate off-plan demand. Smaller and newer developers will increasingly align themselves with large, established master brokerages and agencies to compensate for limited track record, execution history, and buyer trust.

Rising global developer competition: Dubai’s development landscape will become more competitive as international developers, particularly from the United States, enter the market. Groups such as Discovery Land signal a new phase of global capital, design standards, and operational expectations.

Commercial real estate momentum to continue: Office, logistics, and mixed-use developments benefit from sustained economic expansion, infrastructure investment, and rising corporate presence, reinforcing long-term demand.

Dubai Metro to drive value: Communities linked to the upcoming Blue Line gain disproportionate appeal, as connectivity, walkability, and infrastructure increasingly drive pricing and liquidity.

Areas to watch out for

In 2026, communities benefiting from new metro connectivity, such as Dubai Creek Harbour, Festival City, and key parts of Dubai Silicon Oasis and International City, are expected to see renewed interest demand and price resilience.

Prime villa districts will remain bulletproof. Ultra-prime locations such as Jumeirah Bay Island, Palm Jumeirah, Al Wasl, Dubai Hills Estate, and Mohammed Bin Rashid City continued to show the highest resale velocity and lowest discount tolerance.

Increased interest in walkable, lifestyle-first master communities, like City Walk, Central Park at City Walk, Bluewaters Island, and upcoming Meraas developments, benefit from integrated retail, design quality, and human-scale planning.

Etihad Rail-influenced corridors will emerge as long-term strategic plays. Dubai South and the southern logistics corridor will gain relevance as inter-emirate connectivity and industrial demand mature.

“The winners in 2026 will not be defined by hype,” concluded Al Msaddi. “They will be defined by data, fundamentals, infrastructure, and brand credibility. Logic-based buying is back, and it will separate real assets from speculative noise.”