UAE non-oil private sector growth moderates in December, PMI shows

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 54.2 in December, a little lower than its nine-month high of 54.8 in November, but well above the 50.0 point separating growth from contraction. The index remained closely aligned with its long-term average of 54.3.

Output growth was among the fastest recorded in 2025, but input costs rose at the sharpest rate in 15 months, driven by higher wages and material prices.

Demand remained robust, although the rate of expansion in new orders slowed a little in December. The new orders subindex recorded a reading of 57.2 in December from 57.8 the previous month.

David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The UAE non-oil sector concluded 2025 with a solid upturn, marking a year of robust but somewhat tempered growth in business conditions.”

But he pointed out the PMI’s weakest annual performance since 2021.

“December was also characterised by an acceleration of cost pressures and leaner inventory strategies, indicating that many firms were feeling the pinch on their balance sheets,” Owen said.

Rising demand and administrative delays contributed to a build-up in backlogs, the most marked in 10 months.

Future business expectations remained positive, though optimism was softer due to concerns over market saturation and cost pressures.

In Dubai, the UAE’s business and tourism hub, the headline PMI dipped slightly to 54.3 in December, after registering a reading of 54.5 the previous two months, but output levels increased at the sharpest pace since March 2024.