Global financial markets are expected to remain influenced by the ongoing conflict in West Asia, with risk aversion likely to persist amid rising uncertainty, according to a report by ICICI Bank.

The report said that “markets are expected to continue to get shaped by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that has so far not shown signs of de-escalating,” adding that “risk aversion is expected to remain in place.”

According to the report, prior to the conflict, the base-case scenario assumed that “the tariff pass through would start to fade and that would push US inflation gradually lower and labour markets would remain weak that could open scope for a 50bps cumulative cut over 2H2026.”

However, the report cautioned that “the outlook could get shaped by the ongoing conflict and in particular whether there is a structural pick-up in crude prices,” which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may need to consider in its projections.

It added that “there are risks of the FOMC possibly back-loading easing, although it is too early to call at the current juncture,” with the outlook depending on “the duration of the Middle East conflict and permanent impact it has on oil prices.”

The report highlighted that the FOMC maintained status quo on policy rates while “explicitly acknowledged the build-up of uncertainty in the outlook from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East” and also recognised weakness in the labour market.
Despite the geopolitical challenges, the report noted that the FOMC raised its GDP growth projections and also revised inflation forecasts upward, with “the 2 per cent target expected to be achieved by 2028.”However, there was no change in policy rate guidance, with “the median of members expected 25bps cut in 2026 and 25bps cut in 2027.”

The report added that FOMC Chair Jerome Powell “emphasized that the central bank will maintain a data-dependent response” and highlighted that “considerable uncertainty persists about the impact of the conflict on the outlook on the economy.”

It also warned that “higher energy prices and pass-through of the same into consumer prices implies risk of a possible delay” in rate cuts if oil prices remain elevated.

For markets, the report said the FOMC meeting was “largely a non-event,” but added that “the conflict in the Middle East is likely to drive price action ensuring that risk aversion remains dominant,” with US yields expected to drift higher and the global dollar likely to remain supported. (ANI)

SYDNEY—Split decisions on interest rates are common among global central banks. What sets the Reserve Bank of Australia apart from counterparts including the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan is that it doesn’t attach names to individual votes.

That was brought into focus this week when the RBA decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%, with five of its board members outvoting four other officials.

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Amid ongoing global market volatility linked to the US-Israel-Iran conflict, Harish K Ahuja, Head of Sustainability, Power & Carbon Markets, Listing & Social Stock Exchange at the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), has urged retail investors to remain patient and avoid panic selling.

Speaking to on recent market movements, Ahuja highlighted that the correction is not limited to India but is part of a broader global trend.

“Most of the exchanges across the globe are seeing a correction of 7 to 10 per cent. And this up and down is a part of the very market,” he said.

Addressing retail investors directly, Ahuja advised against reacting impulsively to volatility. “My suggestion to retail investors: don’t panic. Show the patience, you are an investor, not a trader,” he said.

He further noted that despite short-term fluctuations, India’s market fundamentals remain strong.

“My understanding of the Indian market, India is growing. Indian fundamentals in terms of GDP growth, inflation, most of the indicators, be it industrial growth, electricity consumption, are very positive,” Ahuja stated.
Emphasising the scale and resilience of Indian markets, he added, “India has witnessed the largest number of IPOs in the world. We are one of the largest exchanges in terms of the number of unique investors and unique accounts.”He also underlined the importance of long-term investing. “Investment means, for me, the definition of investment is once you buy a stock, at least for the next five to ten years, don’t watch the stock daily,” he said.

Ahuja further said that patience is key to benefiting from market growth.

“I think I am always positive about the market because I am a patient investor. Once you have patience, once you understand the fundamentals of the economy and the country as a whole, you should not panic.”

According to him, disciplined and long-term investors are likely to be rewarded despite short-term geopolitical uncertainties.

OpenAI is planning to unify its ChatGPT app, coding platform Codex and browser into a desktop “superapp,” a step to simplify the user experience and continue with efforts to focus on engineering and business customers.

Chief of Applications Fidji Simo will oversee the change and focus on helping the company’s sales team market the new product. OpenAI President Greg Brockman, who currently leads the company’s computing efforts, will help Simo oversee the product revamp and related organization changes, an OpenAI spokeswoman said.

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