ET Intelligence Group: Shares of seafood companies fell 3-7% on Friday after a sharp four-day rally that followed euphoria over the India-US trade deal announcement on February 2. Despite a better medium term outlook due to the deal, which is expected to boost marine exports from India, investors are observing caution given the near-term challenges including margin pressure amid intense competition. The sector’s outlook will hinge on how the trade negotiations progress and the American tariff stance for other seafood-exporting nations.

The trade deal between the two nations is crucial for the Indian marine exports since the US is India’s largest market with 36.3% share in FY25, according to the data from the government’s Niryat (exports) portal. In addition, frozen shrimp makes up nearly two-thirds of India’s marine shipments to the US.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects a lower tariff rate to improve India’s cost position relative to Ecuador, Vietnam and Indonesia. This may also help reverse the slowdown in exports seen between August and November 2025 when Indian shipments to the US sharply declined amid effective duty rates as high as 58% compared with 18-49% for other exporting countries. Ind-Ra also expects the shrimp processing industry to fare better than its earlier forecast of a 12% year-on-year revenue decline and a 150-basis points margin compression for FY26. Improved order visibility is also likely to ease working-capital pressures.

According to CareEdge, shrimp exports to the US rose 5% during the five months to August and then fell by 35% in August over July 2025, following strong frontloading of volumes ahead of higher reciprocal US tariffs. Indian exporters shifted towards other countries, but it affected profitability given that the US market generates higher value.
This is reflected in the financial performance of top marine exporters. Revenue growth for a sample of six exporters improved year-on-year for two quarters to September 2025, but margins softened, with average operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda margin) slipping to 5.3% in the September quarter from 6.7% in the June quarter.

Though the trade deal has boosted hopes of a US market recovery, with the peak holiday season over and global demand set to soften in 2026, analysts expect the rebound to be gradual.
Shares of marine exporters jumped 6-31% on the BSE in five trading sessions since February 2, following the announcement of the India-US trade deal. Avanti Feeds and Waterbase were the top gainers, rising 31% and 27% respectively, while Sharat Industries and Coastal Corporation saw comparatively smaller gains of about 6% and 10%.

These ships, typically oil tankers such as the one Ivan is stuck on, are more often ageing vessels of obscure ownership, unseaworthy, likely uninsured, and operationally hazardous. And they typically sail under flags of convenience or FOCs – the ships are registered in countries with very limited regulatory oversight.

Costco has reportedly rolled out a new batch of food items, continuing its strategy of regularly refreshing its offerings.

The retail giant, which typically introduces new products on a monthly basis, has added a mix of sweet and savory items, ranging from baked goods and desserts to ready-to-eat meals, according to Food & Wine.

New items spotted in stores reportedly include Filled Heart Madeleines; Matcha & Chocolate Sandwich Cookies; Turkey, Pesto, & Swiss Cheese Pockets; Meatball Panino Italian-style rolls; Chinese BBQ-Style Beef Short Ribs; kimchi pancakes and a Valentine’s Day–themed version of the Tuxedo Chocolate Mousse Cake.

COSTCO’S POPULAR BARGAIN MEAL AT CENTER OF NEW LAWSUIT

Filled Heart Madeleines

Costco appears to be leaning into Valentine’s Day with heart-shaped madeleines. The soft, buttery sponge cakes are filled with either raspberry or chocolate hazelnut flavors.

Matcha & Chocolate Sandwich Cookies

Costco has introduced new sandwich cookies featuring Kyoto Uji matcha and Valrhona chocolate. The box includes 12 individually wrapped cookies and retails for about $15.

Chinese BBQ-Style Beef Short Ribs

Ruprecht’s Chinese BBQ-style beef short ribs offer a ready-to-eat option featuring USDA Choice beef. Containing 12 grams of protein per serving, the short ribs are finished in a char siu-style sauce.

COSTCO’S LESSER-KNOWN MEMBERSHIP BENEFITS, EXPLAINED

Tuxedo Chocolate Mousse Cake

While not entirely new, Costco’s Tuxedo Chocolate Mousse Cake is getting a Valentine’s Day makeover from the bakery, according to Food & Wine.

The dessert — which appeared to be iced with the word “love” in at least one store — features layers of chocolate cake, chocolate and white chocolate mousse, brownie pieces and chocolate panache.

Meatball Panino 

Costco’s Meatball Panino stuffed Italian-style rolls pack beef and pork meatballs, marinara and mozzarella into a handheld option priced at about $11 for two.

Crispy Kimchi Pancake

Costco’s new premade kimchi pancakes feature tangy fermented kimchi and pieces of squid and can be quickly pan-cooked.

COSTCO FANS REPORTEDLY NAME DAIRY ITEM AS A MUST-BUY THAT JUSTIFIES MEMBERSHIP

Turkey, Pesto, & Swiss Cheese Pockets

La Boulangerie has added a new frozen bakery item to Costco’s lineup. Each croissant pocket contains 13 grams of protein and is filled with roasted turkey, Swiss cheese and basil pesto.

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

Last month, Costco added a new sweet treat to its bakery lineup with the debut of its Peanut Butter Monster Cookies.

Costco did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

Mumbai: India’s equity markets may extend late last week’s rally into Monday, buoyed by the announcement of the broad contours of the India-US trade deal over the weekend and an upbeat Wall Street on Friday. Analysts said sectors positioned to benefit from the pact could see investor interest early this week, but a runaway rally in the market looks unlikely as further upsides could revive valuations concerns.

“Markets are likely to react positively at the start of the week, also thanks to the strong global cues,” said Sham Chandak, head of institutional equities at Elios Financial Services.

US stocks surged on Friday led by a recovery in technology stocks after the recent selling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.47%, closing above the 50,000 level for the first time. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also jumped around 2%.

In response to the trade deal-related announcements, auto ancillaries, jewellery exporters, textile and apparel exporters, chemical manufacturers, pharmaceuticals and API manufacturers should move higher, said Chandak.

“Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), breweries and auto manufacturers will likely not move higher, given the potential competition they may face post the deal. The market will probably wait to see the fine print of the final agreement.”

The Nifty and Sensex had gained 1.5-1.6% in a six-day event-laden trading week.
“The joint statement is likely to act as the catalyst to trigger a breakout above the 25,500-25,850 range,” said Vipin Kumar, AVP – derivatives and technical research at Globe Capital Market. “A sustained trading above 25,850 will mark a bullish breakout that could push indices toward the 26,150-26,200 spot levels in the immediate near term.” Other analysts struck a more cautious note. Siddarth Bhamre, head of institutional research at Asit C Mehta, said much of the upside from the trade deal has already been priced in.

“While sectors such as pharmaceuticals and gems and jewellery could stand to benefit, the inclusion of a clause allowing commitments to be revised if either side fails to comply leaves some uncertainty,” he said. “With no clear assurance that all provisions will be fully implemented, investors remain cautious.”

JM Financial Institutional Securities said the agreement is a “clear sentiment positive” for Indian equities, particularly export-oriented sectors, but elevated valuations suggest that incremental foreign inflows may be gradual rather than immediate.

After rebounding Friday to nearly erase a brutal mid-week slide, US stocks are facing more selling this week from trend-following algorithmic funds, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk.

The S&P 500 Index has already breached its short-term trigger that prompted Commodity Trading Advisers, or CTAs, to sell stocks. Goldman expects these systematic strategies – which follow the stock market direction rather than fundamental factors – to remain net sellers over the coming week, regardless of market direction.

A renewed decline could trigger about $33 billion of selling this week, according to Goldman. If pressure continues and the S&P 500 falls below 6,707, it could unlock up to $80 billion of additional systematic selling over the next month, the bank’s data show. In a flat market, CTAs are projected to unload roughly $15.4 billion of US equities this week, and even if stocks rise, the funds are expected to shed about $8.7 billion.

Investor stress was running high last week. The firm’s Panic Index – which combines one-month S&P implied volatility, VIX volatility, S&P one-month put-call skew and the slope of the S&P volatility term structure – most recently stood at 9.22, a level indicating markets are not far from “max fear” on Thursday.

The S&P 500 surged 2% on Friday, ending a volatile week with its biggest gain since May. The rally followed a sharp early-week drop in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, triggered by the launch of a new AI automation tool from Anthropic PBC that wiped billions of dollars off software, financial services and asset-management stocks as investors reassessed disruption risks.

Positioning across the so-called systematic strategies was the most common question among Goldman’s clients Friday, underscoring the demand for a view of financial flows.
On top of the CTA selling, thin liquidity and ‘short gamma’ positioning will keep the market choppy, potentially magnifying swings in either direction as dealers buy into rallies and sell into drawdowns to balance their positions. S&P top-of-book liquidity — the volume of buy and sell orders available at the best bid and lowest ask price — has deteriorated sharply, falling to about $4.1 million from a year-to-date average near $13.7 million.

“The inability to transfer risk quickly lends itself to a choppier intraday tape and delays stabilization in overall price action,” Goldman’s trading desk team including Gail Hafif and Lee Coppersmith wrote in a note to clients Friday.

Option dealer positioning has also flipped in a way that may exacerbate moves. After sitting in an area of so-called long gamma that helped prevent a break above the 7,000 level, dealers are now estimated to be flat to short gamma. The dynamic that becomes more pronounced when liquidity is scarce.

“Buckle up,” the traders added.

Other systematic cohorts retain meaningful room to de-risk. Risk-parity positioning sits in the 81st percentile, looking back over a year, while volatility-control strategies are in the 71st percentile. Unlike CTAs, these funds respond to sustained changes in realized volatility, suggesting their impact would be more pronounced if volatility remains elevated. S&P 500 realized volatility is on the rise, but the 20-day gauge is still below levels seen in November and December.

Seasonality offers little relief. February has historically been a weaker and choppier month for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 as supportive January flows — including retirement contributions and peak retail activity — fade.

Retail behavior is also showing signs of fatigue. After a year of relentless dip-buying, the latest two-day net retail imbalance showed roughly $690 million of selling last week, demonstrating less willingness to “buy all dips.” Popular retail trades tied to crypto and crypto-linked equities have been hit particularly hard, raising the risk that any broader rotation out of US stocks would mark a notable shift from last year’s trading patterns.

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.