Wall Street Brunch: Fed Easing Out The Year (null:US10Y)

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The following is an abridged transcript:

The market expects a quarter-point rate cut, but lots of dissents. (0:22) Two big AI names report earnings: Oracle and Broadcom. (1:23) Michael Burry says OpenAI is Netscape. (2:42)

It’s the last Fed week of the year, and markets expect another quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday.

Fed funds futures now price an 85% chance the FOMC lowers rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%–3.75%.

Expectations for easing have surged since the last meeting, despite Powell’s hawkish tone — largely on concerns about the weakening jobs market, even as key data has been delayed or canceled during the government shutdown.

But there’s a significant wrinkle:

Reuters notes that five of the 12 voting members are now publicly against further easing.

That would mark an unprecedented number of dissents, and likely produce a wide dispersion in the dot plot.

Wells Fargo says the FOMC appears “unusually divided,” but sees a “critical mass of support to carry the day for the doves.”

They expect multiple dissents, with the 2026 median dot holding at 3.375%, and Powell signaling a higher bar for more cuts, hinting at a January hold.

Meanwhile, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett argues that a dovish cut that sends long-end yields higher is the only thing that could stop a Santa Claus rally.

Two major AI names are set to report earnings: hyperscaler Oracle (ORCL) and chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO).

Oracle reports Wednesday, with the Street looking for EPS of $1.64 on revenue of $16.2B.

Last week, Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an Overweight and a $280 price target, citing nearly $500B in AI-related deals.

Seeking Alpha analyst Bert Hochfeld, who echoes that Buy rating, expects another quarter of strong bookings, with accelerating revenue growth, but “some murkiness” around “free cash flow and financing of required capex.”

Still, he warns the environment is “far too treacherous” to trade around earnings.

Broadcom reports Thursday, with expectations for EPS of $1.87 on revenue of $17.64B.

According to Susquehanna, Broadcom is well-positioned to keep driving revenue growth, supported by strong AI networking demand and the launch of Google’s Ironwood (TPUv7).

Broadcom has been a key partner in the design and manufacturing of Google’s tensor processing units for roughly a decade.

Both companies are riding powerful AI tailwinds — but traders will be watching for proof that demand translates into clean cash flow, not just big deals.

Also on the earnings calendar:

Toll Brothers (TOL) reports Monday.

AutoZone (AZN), GameStop (GME) and Campbell’s (CPB) issue numbers Tuesday.

Along with Oracle, Adobe (ADBE) weighs in on Wednesday.

Costco (COST) and lululemon athletica (LULU) join Broadcom on Thursday.

In the news this weekend, Michael Burry says OpenAI (OPENAI) is destined to meet the same fate as Netscape, the web-browser pioneer that staged a blockbuster IPO in 1995 — then quickly fizzled out as competitors overtook it.

In a list of “fun facts” posted on X Sunday, Burry argued that even if OpenAI went public at a $1T valuation and raised $60B — which would be more than double the biggest IPO raise in history — it still wouldn’t be enough to prevent what he called a “Netscape fate.”

Separately, Burry compared Palantir (PLTR) to DiamondCluster, a consulting firm that surged in value during the 2000 bubble before ultimately collapsing and being sold to PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Burry also took aim at Substack, claiming that “over 90% of subscribers are free,” meaning revenue estimates floating around the market are “more than 10x too high.”

Carvana (CVNA) is joining the S&P 500. Building materials provider CRH (CRH) and HVAC contractor Comfort Systems USA (FIX) will also be in the benchmark index, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

They join prior to the start of trading on Dec. 22.

Auto parts provider LKQ (LKQ), specialty materials company Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) and flooring manufacturer Mohawk Industries (MHK) will be removed.

And for income investors, Analog Devices (ADI) and UnitedHealth (UNH) go ex-dividend on Monday. Analog pays out on Dec. 22, while UnitedHealth pays out on Dec. 16.

Albermarle (ALB) and Garmin (GRMN) go ex-dividend on Friday. Albemarle has a Jan. 2 payout date and Garmin pays out on Dec. 26.