Crypto markets are heading into a potentially volatile week as investors brace for the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff decision scheduled for Feb. 20.

The ruling could determine the legality or scope of contested trade measures, a development that may ripple across equities, commodities, foreign exchange and, increasingly, digital assets.

U.S. Supreme Court tariff decision looms over risk assets

Tariff decisions tend to influence broader macro sentiment rather than crypto directly. In past episodes of trade tension, markets initially reacted with a risk-off tone, strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring equities.

Crypto has historically responded in two phases: an immediate liquidity-driven pullback alongside other risk assets, followed by a divergence when investors rotate toward alternative stores of value.

During earlier trade escalations, Bitcoin fell in tandem with stocks before stabilizing as dollar strength faded. The key transmission channel has often been the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

A stronger dollar tightens global liquidity, which can weigh on speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies. Conversely, dollar weakness has tended to support risk appetite.

With markets already fragile after a volatile start to February, the Feb. 20 ruling could act as a catalyst rather than a standalone trigger.

Crypto market prediction

From a technical standpoint, the crypto total market cap (TOTAL) sits near $2.32 trillion after a sharp early-February decline toward the $2.1 trillion region. The daily RSI is hovering in the mid-30s, recovering from near-oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure is easing but momentum remains weak.

More notably, TOTAL remains below both its 50-day SMA (around $2.82 trillion) and 200-day SMA (near $3.37 trillion). This indicates the broader structure is still corrective. Unless price reclaims the 50-day average, rallies may face resistance near the $2.6–$2.8 trillion zone.

In contrast, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading around 96.9, below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The downward slope of those averages signals continued dollar weakness.

If DXY extends lower following the Supreme Court decision, it could provide breathing room for crypto to attempt a relief rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) performance will be critical. According to the latest data, Bitcoin continues to command the largest market share and has shown relative resilience compared to the broader altcoin market. BTC was trading at $68,459 at press time, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum, while stabilizing near $2,000, remains more sensitive to risk sentiment shifts. If Bitcoin holds key support while ETH regains momentum, it may signal improving internal strength.

Heading into Feb. 20, three scenarios stand out: a risk-off spike that briefly pressures crypto, a relief rally if dollar weakness continues, or choppy consolidation as traders await clarity.

With TOTAL near support and DXY trending lower, the market appears poised for a volatility expansion rather than a quiet reaction.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has outlined plans to bring AI chatbots under stricter online safety rules, warning that emerging technologies are reshaping childhood in ways policymakers can no longer ignore.

AI chatbots could soon fall under tighter UK rules aimed at protecting minors

In a recent Substack update, Starmer said protections for young people must evolve alongside rapidly advancing artificial intelligence tools. While much of the debate around online harm has focused on social media, he argued that AI-powered chatbots now pose new and complex risks, particularly for children and teenagers.

Starmer said the government in the United Kingdom is considering extending existing online safety laws to explicitly cover AI systems. Chatbots are increasingly embedded in apps, search engines and standalone platforms, often engaging users in highly personalised, human-like conversations.

For young users, he warned, that can blur the line between information, influence and manipulation.

The Prime Minister pointed to concerns ranging from exposure to inappropriate content to emotional dependency and unchecked advice. Unlike traditional platforms, AI systems can generate responses in real time, making oversight and moderation more difficult.

He suggested Parliament may need new regulatory powers to respond quickly as the technology develops.

Starmer framed the issue as part of a broader effort to “give children the space to grow” without being shaped by opaque algorithms or unregulated digital systems. He stressed that innovation should not come at the expense of safety, and that tech companies must take greater responsibility for how their tools are designed and deployed.

A public consultation is expected to examine how best to regulate AI-driven services used by minors. Once evidence is gathered, Starmer said the government would move swiftly to act, signalling that AI chatbots are likely to become a central focus of the UK’s next phase of online safety reform.

The Binance app is no longer available on the Google Play Store in the Philippines, according to local media.

Users searching for “Binance” on the Philippine version of the app store are being redirected to listings for local exchange Coins.ph and region-specific versions such as Binance TH for Thailand and Binance TR for Turkey, according to local media.

One user going by the handle “realitynofantasy” was seen on Reddit questioning whether the disappearance was a technical bug or a signal that the exchange was exiting the Philippine market on the official Binance subreddit. See below.

Filipino locals are also unable to access the crypto exchange’s main website, the report added. Screenshots and user testimonials reviewed by the outlet showed error messages such as “Privacy Error” and “Site can’t be reached.”

At press time, Binance had not issued any public statement addressing the app’s unavailability in the Philippines, but it may be linked to a regulatory crackdown on foreign exchanges led by the country’s Securities and Exchange Commission and the National Telecommunications Commission.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the SEC sent letters to both Google and Apple in late 2024, urging the tech companies to remove the Binance app from their respective Philippine app stores. The letter was sent just months after the National Telecommunications Commission blocked access to the exchange’s website nationwide.

At the time, the SEC said Binance was offering unregistered securities to Philippine residents and operating as an unlicensed broker in violation of the Securities Regulation Code.

The Philippines has also blocked several other foreign exchanges that it deemed were operating without a license.

Binance has navigated similar challenges in India, where it was fined by the country’s regulator for non-compliance. However, after paying a hefty fine, the exchange continues its operations as a registered entity.

SBI Holdings Chairman Yoshitaka Kitao has confirmed that the Japanese financial services giant holds an equity stake in Ripple Labs, clarifying speculation surrounding the company’s exposure to XRP.

The statement follows recent remarks from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. He suggested the firm has the “opportunity” to become a $1 trillion company. 

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SBI Holdings Chairman Dismisses XRP Rumors

Kitao addressed circulating claims that SBI directly holds $10 billion worth of XRP tokens. He rejected those assertions, clarifying that the firm’s exposure is not to XRP but to Ripple Labs. According to Kitao, SBI owns approximately a 9% stake in Ripple.

“Not $10 bil. in XRP but around 9% of  Ripple Lab. So our hidden asset could be much bigger,” he said. “When it comes to Ripple Lab’s total valuation, which obviously includes its ecosystem that Ripple has created, that would be enormous. SBI owns more than 9% of that much.”

SBI has been a long-standing strategic partner of Ripple and has supported the expansion of blockchain-based payment solutions across Asia through joint ventures and financial infrastructure initiatives.

​​In November 2025, Ripple’s valuation rose to $40 billion after a $500 million funding round led by funds managed by affiliates of Fortress Investment Group and affiliates of Citadel Securities.

Based on that valuation, a 9% stake in Ripple Labs would be worth approximately $3.6 billion on paper. However, if Ripple’s valuation were to increase significantly, particularly in line with Garlinghouse’s long-term $1 trillion ambition, SBI’s equity stake could rise proportionally in value.

Ripple CEO Eyes Trillion-Dollar Milestone

During the XRP Community Day on X (formerly Twitter), Garlinghouse projected that a crypto firm will eventually surpass the $1 trillion mark. This could put it in the same league as major technology corporations such as Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft.

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“There will be a trillion-dollar crypto company. I don’t doubt that for a second. I think Ripple has the opportunity, if we do things well in partnership with the overall XRP ecosystem, to be that company, and maybe there’ll be more than one,” he said.

Garlinghouse emphasized that Ripple aims to be successful. However, its mission goes beyond corporate growth. 

He stated that Ripple’s “reason for existence is driving success around XRP and the XRP ecosystem.” The executive described XRP as Ripple’s “north star.” 

“We will continue to build products and services that customers love and will pay for to make Ripple successful, but it’s in service of the overall XRP ecosystem,” he added.

These remarks come as XRP continues to face market challenges. BeInCrypto Markets data showed that the altcoin has dropped 7.8% over the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, it traded at $1.47.

Despite Ripple’s strategic focus on XRP, ongoing network developments, and ecosystem expansion, these advances have not yet resulted in a meaningful price breakout.

Over the longer horizon, continued ecosystem growth and deeper institutional integration may provide stronger support for price appreciation and broader adoption. Nonetheless, for now, XRP remains largely influenced by broader market conditions.

Bitcoin’s recent bounce has pushed the market back toward the $70K–$72K area, but the broader structure remains fragile. The key question now is whether this rebound can evolve into a deeper corrective move toward overhead resistance, or if it is merely a temporary reaction within a dominant downtrend.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC remains inside a clear descending channel, preserving the overall bearish structure. The breakdown below the $75K level triggered an accelerated sell-off that extended directly into the $60K demand zone, where buyers finally stepped in.

The recent recovery has brought the price back toward $70K, which also aligns with the channel’s mid-boundary, making it a notable resistance. However, Bitcoin is still trading below the critical $75K resistance. As long as the market remains beneath the $75K-$80K region, the move is technically considered a corrective rebound within a broader bearish trend.

A decisive reclaim of $75K would expose $78,915 and then $81,485 (0.702) as the next upside targets. On the downside, the $60K zone remains the primary structural support.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, the rebound from $60K appears impulsive, but the price is now approaching the $70K-$72K short-term resistance area, which aligns with the descending structure and previous breakdown region. The market is currently compressing below this level.

A confirmed break and consolidation above $72K would likely trigger continuation toward $75K crucial threshold. However, failure to clear this resistance could result in renewed downside pressure, targeting $65K first and potentially revisiting the $60K demand zone if selling momentum increases.

Sentiment Analysis

The Bitcoin Futures Average Order Size chart reveals a notable shift during the recent decline. As the asset approached the $60,000–$65,000 region, several green dots appeared, representing large whale-sized orders entering the market. This cluster of green dots near the local bottom suggests that larger participants began accumulating during the panic-driven sell-off.

However, red dots has been apeared following the recent rebou, reflecting retail-driven activity. The recent whale participation at lower prices increases the probability that the $60K region attracted strategic accumulation rather than random buying, while the retail-driven rebound hints at a potential consolidation stage followed by bullish retracements.

If this whale activity returns around the $65K-$80K range, it strengthens the case for a sustained rebound. However, for the structure to shift meaningfully bullish, Bitcoin must reclaim $80K. Without that reclaim, the broader daily trend remains corrective within a bearish framework.

Cryptocurrency exchange OKX has obtained a payment institution (PI) license in Malta, aligning with European Union regulatory requirements that take effect in March.

The license allows OKX to continue offering stablecoin-related payment services across the EU in full compliance with the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation and the Second Payment Services Directive (PSD2), the company said in a press release on Monday.

Under the updated PSD2 framework, crypto-asset service providers engaging in payment activities involving stablecoins, legally classified as electronic money tokens (EMTs), must hold a PI or electronic money institution (EMI) authorization.

“We have recently launched real-world payment products, including OKX Pay and our OKX Card, that bring stablecoins into everyday use. Securing a Payment Institution license ensures that these products operate on a fully compliant footing,” said Erald Ghoos, CEO of OKX Europe.

At the end of last month, OKX introduced a crypto payment card in Europe in association with Mastercard. The exchange is enthusiastic about stablecoins entering mainstream finance. OKX Ventures, the firm’s innovation investment arm, recently backed stablecoin issuance platform STBL.

Bitcoin price has confirmed a bullish divergence on the daily chart as liquidation levels shot up on Monday.

The daily chart for Bitcoin shows that its Relative Strength Index has formed a bullish divergence with its price, which has been in a prolonged downtrend since mid-January.

A bullish RSI divergence occurs when the RSI records higher lows while the related asset’s price continues to set lower lows. Such a technical formation has often been a precursor to a significant trend reversal or a relief rally.

Besides the bullish RSI, another positive indicator came from the MACD histogram and moving averages, which showed the MACD line had just crossed over the signal line, a telltale sign of an incoming bullish trend. Together, these indicators suggest that bullish momentum seems to be building, with bulls starting to assert dominance over the market.

The shift comes after Bitcoin bulls attempted a rebound after the bellwether fell near the $65k support zone on Thursday. The asset rose sharply over the following days but faced resistance around $71k for the second time in the past 7 days, as investors remained on the sidelines awaiting key economic data expected to be released this week.

First, Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr’s speech on Wednesday, Feb. 18, is expected to focus on the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and the labor market. On the same day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its January meeting, offering further clarity on the central bank’s stance on monetary policy. Finally, on Friday, the U.S. will release Q4 GDP and core PCE inflation data, which will also act as a major market catalyst.

Upcoming macro data should illuminate the Fed’s stance on monetary easing for the remainder of 2026, offering the structural clarity necessary for Bitcoin to establish its next trend.

Key levels to watch

For now, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be higher, with the $71K resistance line acting as the next key resistance level that traders will keep an eye on this week. 

A decisive break above it could lead to a reclaim of $75,000, which has previously served as a key support area in past cycles. On the contrary, a drop under $65,000 could validate the downtrend towards a likely retrenchment towards the $60K low observed on Feb. 6.

In the meantime, massive liquidations have been sweeping through the broader crypto market. In the past 24 hours alone, the crypto market saw nearly $300 million liquidated, with Bitcoin alone accounting for over $75 million worth of positions being liquidated. Persistent liquidations may keep Bitcoin price under pressure throughout the upcoming sessions.

Strategy plans to reduce the debt on its balance sheet by converting its $6 billion in convertible bonds into equity over the coming years, according to founder Michael Saylor.

In a Sunday X post, Saylor confirmed the plan in response to a statement from the company’s account, reiterating that the firm can “withstand a drawdown in BTC price to $8,000” before facing any shortfall in covering its debt.

What this essentially means is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder plans to systematically turn the company’s lenders into shareholders by converting outstanding convertible bonds into common equity. This is expected to transpire over the next “3-6 years,” Saylor said.

Currently, the company has a convertible debt load of roughly $6 billion and Bitcoin holdings that amount to approximately $49 billion based on current prices, with more than 714,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

Although the move may be able to shield its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy from refinancing pressure, the conversion could also dilute existing shareholders once the debt is exchanged for newly issued stock.

On Feb. 12, Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company will increasingly rely on perpetual preferred shares such as Stretch (STRC) to fund future Bitcoin purchases while reducing reliance on common stock sales.

Strategy shares have struggled over the past few months due to Bitcoin’s latest downturn, but rallied over 8% to close at $133.88 on Friday, rallying another 0.24% in after-hours trading, as Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $70k mark. 

The rally was short-lived, and Bitcoin has receded back towards $68,700 at press time, down roughly 2% in the past 24 hours.

According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, Strategy is now down over 9.7% on its investment, with an average buying price of $76,052. Meanwhile, the company’s shares are down 70% from their all-time high reached last year.

Ethereum’s correction appears to be accelerating, with price sliding toward the critical $1,900 support level and futures sentiment hitting its most bearish reading in three months.

At press time, Ethereum was changing hands at $1,958, marking a 6.4% drop in the last 24 hours as continued selling dragged prices lower. Over the past week, the coin has fluctuated between $1,907 and $2,129, but it has stayed under pressure across every major timeframe.

In the last seven days, Ethereum (ETH) has slipped 6.3%. The losses deepen when you zoom out. It is down 40% over the past month and 27% compared with a year ago, showing how strong and persistent this correction has been.

Trading activity in the spot market picked up as prices fell. During the sell-off, 24-hour volume jumped 34% to reach $31 billion, suggesting that more traders stepped in while the price tested important support levels.

Derivatives, on the other hand, tells a more cautious story, pointing to a market that remains on edge. As per CoinGlass data, derivatives volume rose 18% to $40 billion while open interest dropped 7% to $23 billion. This combination suggests that traders are closing positions into volatility rather than adding fresh leverage.

Futures sentiment flips extremely bearish

Additional pressure is coming from longer-term derivatives sentiment. A Feb. 15 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain revealed a notable shift in futures behavior on Binance. The Ethereum Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (30-day moving average) has dropped to 0.97, its lowest reading since November 2025.

When this ratio drops below 1.00, it shows that aggressive sell orders are outpacing aggressive buys. Using a 30-day average helps filter out daily fluctuations, turning this into a structural signal rather than a short-term reaction.

At the current levels, the data indicate that futures traders have been leaning on the sell side for several weeks, either hedging their exposure or taking a defensive stance as prices weaken.

If spot market demand is unable to absorb the supply close to support, this ongoing imbalance raises the possibility of prolonged consolidation or additional losses, but it does not guarantee that prices will continue to decline right away.

Ethereum price technical analysis

Ethereum is still clearly in a downward trend. Since late December, there have been consistently lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that the correction is still ongoing. Sellers continue to dominate the market, as shown by the price remaining below the 20-day moving average.

Volatility has spiked sharply. The recent downturn pushed ETH close to the lower Bollinger Band around $1,600, with the bands widening, a classic sign of a strong directional move. Despite a minor recovery from that extreme, the price is still trading close to the lower half of the range, suggesting that selling pressure has lessened but not reversed. 

A crucial psychological and technical level is now the $1,900 mark. It lines up with a previous consolidation zone where buyers once tried to stabilize prices. If Ethereum breaks below this level decisively, it could drop toward $1,600–$1,650, near the lower edge of the recent volatility range.

Momentum readings remain weak. The relative strength index sits around 32–33, recently brushing near oversold territory. Such levels sometimes trigger short-term rallies, but no bullish divergence has appeared. Throughout the correction, RSI has failed to climb back above 50, keeping overall momentum firmly in the bearish camp.

For bulls to regain control, a daily close holding above $1,900 and RSI pushing back into the 40–45 range would be necessary. If $1,900 fails, downside risk remains elevated. 

A move toward $1,600, and potentially lower, would be consistent with both the current technical structure and further bearish tilt in futures sentiment.

A short but busy week lies ahead on the United States economic calendar as spot crypto markets lose recent gains again.

All eyes will be on the PCE inflation report this week, following last week’s CPI, and the Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday.

January’s CPI came in slightly below expectations, with headline inflation at 2.38% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.5%, the lowest since early 2021. This boosted the stock and crypto markets on Friday, but gains in the latter were soon eroded over the weekend.

“Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain, and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated,” said the Kobeissi Letter, cautioning of “more volatility this week.”

Economic Events Feb. 16 to 20

Traditional markets are closed in the US on Monday for the President’s Day holiday.

There is an ADP employment update on Tuesday, followed by the January Retail Sales report. Wednesday sees more consumer spending data with the delayed December Durable Goods Orders numbers.

The Fed meeting minutes are also released on Wednesday, and there will be 10 central bank speaker events, which could shed light on future monetary policy decisions.

Investors will also get an early look at economic growth for the fourth quarter with the Thursday release of the GDP report.

However, the big data of the week is the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report.

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Based on the January CPI data, Goldman Sachs raised its PCE outlook, according to reports.

“We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.40% in January,” said economists.

The growth projections were due to rising consumer electronics and IT prices, which are more heavily weighted in PCE than CPI. A global RAM and storage shortage due to AI data center demand has caused computer and component prices to surge.

“So far, data doesn’t offer much reason for the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting in March,” wrote The Street.

The CME Fed Watch Tool has a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged.

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Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets have lost last week’s late gains, with total capitalization dropping 2.5% over the past 24 hours in a fall back to $2.41 trillion.

Bitcoin failed to hold above $70,000 for long and retreated to $68,300 in early Asian trading on Monday. The asset has remained rangebound for the past ten days.

Ether prices have tanked hard, shedding 5% from almost $2,100 back to $1,950 at the time of writing, while the altcoins continue to bleed out.