Crypto World
14-Month Low Sparks Fears of a Deeper Fall Below $60K
Is BTC headed for a crash to $25,000?
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a steep decline over the past weeks, mirroring the broader crypto market crash.
According to some analysts and experts, the situation could worsen for bulls in the short term, with the price at risk of falling below $60,000.
Fasten Your Belts
Just recently, the leading cryptocurrency tumbled below $70,000 for the first time since November 2024. As of press time, it trades at around $69,300, down 21% over the past week alone.
The renowned analyst Ali Martinez suggested that the bears might be just stepping in. He reminded that since 2015, every time BTC has lost the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), it has failed to reclaim it in time and continued toward the 200-week SMA. According to his chart, the price could drop to as low as $57,600. Prior to that, Martinez claimed that the next key support levels for BTC after the drop under $77,086 are $60,176 and $47,824.
The trader, using the X handle Hardy, also recently made a pessimistic prediction. They envisioned a massive decline in the coming months, with the bottom set at roughly $30,000.
Meanwhile, PlanB (the anonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model) believes several scenarios are possible, including a collapse to $25,000 and a retreat to $50,000- $60,000. The analyst took it to X to ask the followers for their take on the matter. Nearly half of the participants think a plunge to $50K-$60K is the most plausible option, while only 15% see the valuation nosediving to $25K.
Recent investor behavior supports the bearish thesis. According to data from CryptoQuant, the amount of BTC held on exchanges has been rising over the past few weeks. This suggests that many market participants have moved their holdings from self-custody to centralized platforms, typically interpreted as a pre-sale step.
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Is It Really Over?
While BTC’s current condition may appear weak, several indicators suggest a potential rebound ahead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes.
It ranges from 0 to 100, and anything below 30 means that the asset is oversold and due for a potential resurgence. On the contrary, ratios above 70 are considered bearish territory. As of this writing, the RSI stands at roughly 19.
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Block Inc., the firm behind payment platforms Square, Cash App and Afterpay, has quietly brought back a small portion of workers it laid off in late February with its transition to rely more on artificial intelligence.
Multiple Block employees posted on LinkedIn this month that they were offered a place to return to the company after initially being part of the 4,000 employees who were fired.
Design engineer Andrew Harvard said on March 3 that he rejoined after being told that his layoff was due to a clerical error. “They offered me the opportunity to return, and I’ve accepted,” he added.
On March 8, technical lead Richard Hesse said he was the only member of his team who wasn’t impacted by the staff cut and that he spent two days convincing management that he needed more staff to continue working on “infrastructure highly critical to our customers.”
“I’m happy to share that they listened to my requests and have decided to re-hire some of those laid off,” he said. “While my teams were not returned to full levels, I’ll have enough to continue on.”
Chane Rennie, creative strategy lead, said on March 12 that he was asked to rejoin the company about a week after being laid off, but did not explain why.
Cointelegraph contacted Block on what staff were rehired, but did not receive an immediate response.
Block CEO Jack Dorsey acknowledged at the time of the layoffs that Block may have made some missteps in its staff cut decisions and had built in flexibility to correct course.
Dorsey said recent advances in AI tools forced Block to restructure its 6,000-strong workforce, adding that AI now “fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company.”
The Guardian reported that several fired Block employees pushed back against Dorsey’s assertions that AI tools can effectively replace workers at scale.
Related: Nvidia’s Huang: AI will boost jobs as it needs trillions in infrastructure
Some of those laid off said they believed the staff cuts were Dorsey’s way of regaining investor confidence, with Block shares down double digits so far this year.
Block, which offers a range of Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto products with Square and Cash App, currently has 27 job listings on its website.
The only two position types currently listed are manager or account executive, and none of the roles specifically mention the use of AI in the job descriptions.
Meanwhile, the Algorand Foundation, the team behind the Algorand layer-1 blockchain, said it had made the “difficult decision” to reduce its headcount by 25% on Wednesday, blaming the crypto slump and macroeconomic uncertainty.
On Monday, blockchain analytics platform Messari also announced staff cuts as part of its transition to become an AI-first company.
Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?
Crypto traders are parsing the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates and its implications for a possible market rally. With policy left unchanged, attention shifted to whether the pause can catalyze a relief bounce for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, or whether the move simply defers the next leg in a cautious macro backdrop.
Santiment, a sentiment-tracking platform, reported a rapid shift in social mood in the wake of the central bank’s decision. Its metrics show the crypto social discussion score jumping from about 9 to 71 in the hours after the Fed’s expected outcome, as traders linked the hold to a potential upside for crypto assets. The firm noted that market participants appeared to focus less on immediate cuts and more on the prospect of later policy pivots that could support risk assets. Santiment said on X.
Bitcoin’s price action reflected a moment of cross-currents. At the time of writing, BTC traded around $70,790, having slipped about 4.35% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Over the prior 30 days, the benchmark crypto had been modestly higher, up roughly 3.56%. The Fed pause has reinforced a narrative among traders that a relief rally could unfold even without an immediate move on rates, though many remain cautious about how durable any bounce will be in the face of broader macro headwinds.
Key takeaways
- Santiment’s social-sentiment metrics surged after the Fed pause, signaling heightened bullish chatter and a belief in a potential crypto rally ahead of any rate cuts.
- Bitcoin stood near $70,800, with a 24-hour drop of about 4.4% but a 30-day gain around 3.6%, illustrating a choppy near-term path despite the rate hold.
- Historically, Fed policy has been a strong catalyst for crypto optimism, with some observers looking to possible rate cuts in 2025 as a signal for a new Bitcoin bull year.
- Nevertheless, analysts warned that the relief could prove fleeting if macro catalysts do not materialize, and several voices raised concerns about a potential bull trap in the near term.
Fed pause reshapes trader expectations
By keeping the federal funds target rate steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range, the Fed reinforced a wait-and-see posture as markets weigh the path ahead. In crypto circles, the decision has often been treated as a macro backdrop that can lift risk assets if investors anticipate eventual rate relief. Several analysts noted that the absence of a rate cut yet did not erase the possibility of a future pivot; instead, the hold tended to shift the conversation toward timing rather than direction.
Industry observers have long linked monetary policy signals to crypto momentum. The prospect of rate reductions in 2025 remains a potential bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, even as near-term dynamics stay uncertain. The tension between expecting a policy pivot and defending a risk-off stance has created a bifurcated narrative: some participants anticipate a durable rally if the Fed begins cutting ahead of other central banks, while others caution that any move higher could stall without more concrete macro or liquidity support.
Signals vs. price action: market mood in flux
The latest price action sits at a crossroads. Bitcoin’s 24-hour decline underscores the fragility of short-term momentum, even as longer-term momentum metrics show intermittent strength. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved back into Extreme Fear territory on Wednesday after a brief return to Fear the day before, highlighting that overall sentiment remains jittery even as social chatter turns more optimistic. This dichotomy—elevated social bullishness alongside continued price weakness—illustrates the complexity of interpreting a Fed-driven impulse in a market that is simultaneously assessing liquidity, macro data, and broader risk appetite.
Analysts remain divided on the durability of any rally. On one hand, on-chain and technical commentary has pointed to a potential multi-month uplift should equities stabilize and macro conditions improve. On the other hand, a number of voices warn that the current up-move could be a “bull trap”—a short-lived ascent that reverses as soon as momentum fades or as real money exits risk assets. Bitcoin brokered a dramatic move in recent sessions, and traders will be watching both macro data releases and central-bank commentary for confirmation of a lasting shift.
Within the broader market context, there are competing signals. The S&P 500 has trended lower, with roughly a 3.7% decline over the past 30 days, according to Google Finance data cited in market briefs. This backdrop suggests investors remain cautious about chasing a near-term crypto rally without supporting upside from risk assets or a clear path to lower policy rates. Still, some voices remain constructive about a more pronounced rally in the medium term, arguing that a capitulation-like washout could open the door to renewed appetite for risk assets as liquidity conditions improve.
Commentary from notable voices in the space reflects this split. On-chain analyst Willy Woo warned that the market could be forming a bull trap, where early bullishness misreads the strength of the uptrend. Meanwhile, traders like Matthew Hyland suggested that a meaningful rally could emerge once broader markets find a bottom and begin to rebound. Hyland pointed to the current macro setup as a prerequisite for a broad crypto upside, aligning with the view that BTC tends to perform when equities recover from downturns.
Within social channels, sentiment remains a volatile gauge. A crypto trader known as Moustache echoed the hopeful sentiment, stating on X that a “massive rally” could unfold in the coming months. Whether that call translates into tangible price action will depend on the confluence of rate expectations, inflation data, and the speed at which liquidity returns to risk markets.
Broader context and what comes next
The Fed’s decision to pause reinforces a broader narrative about policy paths and crypto’s sensitivity to macro signals. If investors interpret the hold as a precursor to rate cuts, Bitcoin and other tokens could benefit from a renewed bid as risk appetite improves and liquidity conditions ease. Conversely, if the hold is read as evidence that the macro environment remains constrained, any rally could be shallow or short-lived, fading as momentum cools and traders reprice risk.
Going forward, market watchers will closely track several signals: upcoming inflation data, the Fed’s own communication on the trajectory of rates, and the pace at which other central banks respond to evolving macro conditions. The next few weeks could reveal whether the relief rally discussed by traders gains traction, or if the narrative shifts back toward caution and consolidation as macro cues darken risk sentiment.
In the meantime, sentiment indicators remain the most volatile barometer. The surge in social sentiment following the Fed decision suggests players are ready to test a higher-risk stance, but price action and macro momentum will ultimately determine whether the rally endures or merely proves transient.
Readers should keep a close watch on the development of rate expectations and the evolution of risk appetite in equities, as these will likely set the pace for crypto’s trajectory in the near term. The next major inflection point will be how quickly market participants price in possible rate cuts and how convincingly the macro data supports a shift from caution to confidence.
What to watch next: a clearer read on whether the Fed’s hold becomes a stepping stone to cuts, and whether Bitcoin can convert social buzz into sustained buying interest rather than a fleeting bounce. The landscape remains uncertain, but the emphasis on policy signals and macro resilience will shape the path forward for crypto markets in the days ahead.
Crypto World
Flow Traders debuts 24/7 OTC liquidity service for tokenized stocks, gold and money market funds
Flow Traders, one of the world’s top market makers in exchange-traded products, said Tuesday it is bringing its decades of TradFi expertise to tokenized assets with the launch of 24/7 over-the-counter (OTC) liquidity.
The move arms institutional clients with a new tool, allowing them to manage risk and keep capital flowing via blockchain versions of popular traditional assets when traditional exchanges are dark on weekends and after hours.
The new offering, delivered through Flow Traders’ Digital Asset OTC platform, provides proprietary, two-way pricing for tokenized money-market funds, equities and commodities, including Franklin Templeton’s BENJI and tether gold (XAUT), according to the press release shared with CoinDesk.
It means that the OTC platform will now constantly quote prices, ready to buy or sell the tokenized assets outside regular traditional market hours. The service is available immediately to permissioned counterparties, with institutions able to access liquidity via direct FIX connectivity and other standard trading interfaces.
“At Flow Traders, we have operated at the intersection of traditional and digital markets for many years, and we are pleased to launch 24/7 OTC liquidity for regulated tokenized equities and commodities for permissioned counterparties through our digital asset OTC platform,” Thomas Spitz, CEO of Flow Traders, said.
The OTC liquidity aims to address a nagging problem for institutions: The inability to adjust positions during weekends or overnight sessions. This has become brutally clear in recent weeks, as Iran-Israel tensions flared over the weekends, leaving traditional trading desks empty while crypto markets churned.
The demand mainly comes from institutions that want the ability to manage exposure outside traditional market hours,” Marc Jansen, co-chief trading officer at Flow Traders, told CoinDesk.
He explained that the OTC liquidity service will help large traders manage their risk better beyond market hours through tokenized equities and commodities, which are already gaining popularity on venues such as Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid.
“All weekend long, with these markets getting pretty close to the traditional market open price as a result of that weekend price discovery. OTC liquidity helps support that activity, particularly for larger trades where public venue liquidity is still developing,” he said.
According to the firm, tokenization is growing fast and the tokenized gold and silver market alone is nearing $6 billion in value, up roughly fourfold since the end of 2024.
“Liquidity providers such as Flow Traders play a critical role in ensuring that tokenized assets like XAUT can trade efficiently across venues and reach a broader set of market participants,“ said Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether.
The asset tokenization market is reportedly worth $3 trillion as of this year and is growing at a CAGR of 44.25% and could reach over $18 trillion by 2031, according to some estimates.
This booming market, however, demands more than just enthusiasm; it requires battle-tested expertise, and this is where Flow Traders appears to have an edge, thanks to their 20 years of experience in market-making and liquidity provisioning for global exchange-traded products.
They operate across asset classes, including ETPs, digital assets, fixed income, FX, and commodities, and ranked among the top three global market makers by ETP trading volume in 2025.
“For us, with extensive experience in the ETF markets, it’s a more familiar problem. We’ve always priced and managed risk in products when parts of the primary market are closed. That already requires using models rather than relying purely on underlying market prices and we’ve built those pricing models over time in our ETF business, and they can be extended to tokenized markets,” Jansen said.
“Our role is to provide liquidity wherever the market develops,” he added.
The new OTC service will expand coverage and evolve, with asset availability guided by institutional counterparty demand, ongoing regulatory developments, and the integration of supported trading venues.
Product offerings will therefore vary by jurisdiction and depend on client eligibility, with different members of the Flow Traders group providing access based on their respective regulatory statuses.
Bhutan has transferred roughly $72.3 million in Bitcoin over the past 24 hours, continuing a steady pattern of trimming its sovereign holdings.
Summary
- Bhutan transferred roughly $72.3 million in Bitcoin over 24 hours, with Druk Holding and Investments moving more than 973 BTC across multiple transactions.
- Holdings have declined to over 4,400 BTC from a peak of 13,295 BTC in October 2024, as the country continues periodic sales from its sovereign reserve.
According to Arkham Intelligence data, Druk Holding and Investments, which manages the country’s crypto mining and treasury operations, has moved more than 973 BTC. The latest transfers come as Bhutan has continued to offload portions of its Bitcoin reserves in measured intervals.
DHI’s last major transfer was flagged on March 10, when it moved more than 175 BTC worth around $11.8 million.
Arkham noted that the country periodically sells Bitcoin in clips of $5 million to $10 million, but current transfers appear larger in scale compared to the activity seen around September 2025.
After the current transfers, Bhutan now holds more than 4,400 BTC, valued at over $322 million based on current market prices.
At its peak, Bhutan held 13,295 BTC in October 2024 and has since gradually reduced its holdings through a series of on-chain transfers.
Bhutan’s Bitcoin play
Bhutan has outlined a Bitcoin Development Pledge aimed at supporting the Kingdom of Bhutan’s long-term economic development through its mining operations and strategic reserves. Meanwhile, it has also committed to deploying part of its Bitcoin holdings toward the development of the Gelephu Mindfulness City.
Further, Arkham added that Bhutan-linked wallets have not recorded inflows greater than $100 million over the past year. Many in the crypto community are now speculating that the country may have scaled back or ceased its mining operations.
However, there’s been no confirmation of any halt in mining activity.
Early reports suggest the country has been using renewable energy sources, particularly hydroelectric power, to sustain its Bitcoin mining operations.
The latest transfers come as the Bitcoin price has dropped over 4.5% in the last 24 hours, falling below the $71,000 mark as investors reacted to hotter-than-expected inflation concerns in the US.
Large-scale selling from sovereign entities like Bhutan could further exacerbate downward pressure on the asset, especially as the market remains sensitive to signs of reduced institutional conviction and potential sell-side liquidity from major holders.
Retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
“Retail-driven exuberance,” increasingly channeled through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), “set the stage for outsize moves,” continuing the precious metal rally from 2025, reported the BIS in a quarterly review released on Monday.
Since Q2 2025, retail investors have bought around $70 billion in gold ETFs, and these purchases have more than tripled over the last six months, observed the Kobeissi Letter, citing BIS data on Thursday.
“Retail investors are all-in on precious metals,” it noted.
Gold has surged 60% over the past year, and some crypto proponents have speculated it has come at the expense of Bitcoin, which some argue competes with gold as a store-of-value asset.
BIS data shows cumulative retail inflows effectively tripled from around $20 billion to roughly $60 billion over the six months from late Q3 2025 to the end of Q1 2026.
However, institutional selling started around mid-November and accelerated after the precious metals market began to correct in January, according to the data.
Leveraged liquidations amplified commodity drops
Bitcoin (BTC) is not the only asset susceptible to high volatility from overleveraged positions.
Prices of precious metals such as gold and silver reversed abruptly in late January and February 2026, while the “daily rebalancing of leveraged ETFs and margin‑triggered liquidations amplified the swings,” particularly in silver, BIS reported.
Smaller speculative derivatives traders, or “non-reportables,” had built up heavily leveraged long positions in silver heading into the crash, it added.
Gold prices are currently down 9% from their late January all-time high, while silver has slumped much harder, dropping 34% over the same period, according to GoldPrice.
Related: Bitcoin vs gold: ETF flows point to early capital rotation signs
The abrupt price drop and the spike in precious metal volatility “point to the role of retail flows, and amplification of price moves due to forced sales by leveraged ETFs, trend-following investors such as commodity trading advisers, and margin dynamics,” BIS stated.
Dollar strengthens as commodities and crypto weakens
The bank concluded that gold and silver declines coincided with changing expectations around US monetary policy and the performance of the US dollar, which has gained 4.7% since late January, according to the DXY dollar index.
“The precious metals crash seemingly coincided with shifts in expectations about the US dollar and the path of monetary policy, but it was hard to square with broader changes in fundamentals.”
Meanwhile, crypto markets have fallen around 43% from their October total capitalization peak as retail sentiment and interest in digital assets have dried up and remain at bear market levels.
Magazine: Metaplanet’s Japan Bitcoin bet, Bithumb ordered suspension: Asia Express
Canada’s financial intelligence unit has revoked the registrations of 50 money services businesses (MSBs) so far this year, with 47 related to crypto, and the minister of finance says it will continue cracking down.
Canada’s Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre (FINTRAC) said on Monday that it took its most recent action, revoking 23 MSB registrations.
Minister of Finance François-Philippe Champagne said in a statement on Tuesday that it’s part of the government’s latest effort to combat money laundering, with FINTRAC also “strengthening enforcement and increasing transparency on compliance actions.”
He added that the 23 cancellations represented “a significantly increased pace of action, and our government will maintain this momentum.”
“Our government will continue to monitor and pursue new measures to address risks posed by virtual currency businesses, such as cryptocurrency MSBs and crypto ATMs, which can be used to facilitate money laundering and fraud,” Champagne said.
Traditional financial systems, such as wire transfers, have long been used for money laundering and other forms of fraud due to their scale and widespread adoption.
Related: US, UK, Canada launch joint operation to disrupt crypto fraud
The Financial Action Task Force estimates that 2 to 5% of global GDP is laundered through traditional financial systems, whereas Chainalysis estimates that less than 1% of crypto transactions are linked to illicit activity.
Two crypto platforms fined near the end of last year
FINTRAC has been stepping up its enforcement actions against crypto firms, issuing a $126 million fine against crypto platform Cryptomus in October for a range of alleged violations, including failing to report suspicious transactions on 1,068 separate occasions in July 2024 and failing to develop and apply written compliance policies.
Crypto exchange KuCoin also received a $14 million penalty a month earlier for violations, including allegedly failing to register as a foreign money services business with FINTRAC and failing to report large crypto transactions with the required information.
Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?
Visa’s crypto division has launched a tool to allow artificial intelligence agents to make payments, the same day the Stripe-backed blockchain Tempo launched alongside a protocol for AI agents.
“Excited to share Visa CLI, the first experimental product from Visa Crypto Labs,” Cuy Sheffield, the head of Visa Crypto Labs, posted to X on Wednesday.
A website for Visa CLI, meaning a command line interface where users type what action a program must take, says the tool will give an AI agent “the ability to securely pay for what you need as you code.”
The tool also said it allows for “programmatic card payments without the pain of API keys.” API keys can include sensitive information that AI agents can leak, causing security risks.
It’s the latest standard seeking to allow AI agents to make payments online as hype around AI and stablecoins grows.
Coinbase launched its x402 standard to facilitate agentic stablecoin payments in May, which was most recently integrated by Sam Altman’s World in a developer toolkit for AI agents released on Tuesday.
Stripe-backed Tempo blockchain goes live
Meanwhile, the Tempo blockchain, backed by payments company Stripe, launched on mainnet on Wednesday, releasing a payments protocol for AI agents.
Tempo posted to X that its blockchain was “purpose-built for payments” and focused on servicing high-throughput stablecoin transactions, currently one of the most popular ways AI agents are used.
“Agents can already write code, coordinate services, retrieve data, and execute complex workflows across the internet. But as these systems become more capable, they increasingly need to transact,” Tempo said.
Agent payments will soon overtake human payments on the internet. The Machine Payments Protocol (@mpp) is a new open standard co-authored by @stripe and @tempo.
It’s designed to be extensible and payment-method agnostic, already supporting stablecoins, cards, and more. pic.twitter.com/dEjfGN2tp9
— Tempo (@tempo) March 18, 2026
The project also launched the Machine Payments Protocol, an open standard that it developed with Stripe, which it described as giving “a standard way for agents and services to coordinate payments programmatically.”
Related: SlowMist introduces Web3 security stack for autonomous AI agents
Tempo said the protocol “is designed to be rail-agnostic and extensible,” noting that Visa had extended support for the protocol on its card payments network while Stripe is supporting “cards, wallets, and other payment methods.”
The crypto fintech Lightspark had also extended support for the protocol over the Lightning Network for Bitcoin (BTC) payments.
AI Eye: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket
Nasdaq has received approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to proceed with its tokenized equities pilot.
Summary
- Nasdaq received SEC approval to launch a pilot allowing select participants to trade and settle equities in tokenized form alongside traditional shares.
- The pilot is limited to securities within the Russell 1000 and major index linked ETFs, with tokenized shares carrying the same rights and pricing as standard equities.
According to the SEC’s approval filing, Nasdaq can now move ahead with “eligible participants” choosing to trade securities in either traditional or tokenized form on the same platform.
Tokenization involves representing real-world assets as digital tokens on blockchain infrastructure, allowing for more efficient settlement and extended market functionality.
Per previous coverage, Nasdaq first filed its proposal in September to enable trading of high-volume stocks in either a traditional format or as tokenized versions within the same exchange environment.
At the time, CEO Tal Cohen said the model can shorten settlement cycles and improve processes such as proxy voting, while maintaining investor protections.
The SEC has limited the pilot to securities in the Russell 1000 Index, which tracks the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., along with exchange-traded funds tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
According to the filing, there were concerns around market surveillance and potential pricing discrepancies during the review process. The commission said these were addressed through amendments that clarified safeguards.
Nasdaq has also partnered with crypto exchange Kraken, along with tokenization platform Backed, to build infrastructure that would allow public companies to create and issue tokenized shares.
Wednesday’s approval follows growing demand for tokenized assets from both crypto firms and traditional financial institutions seeking to modernize market infrastructure.
The SEC has also authorized the DTCC to pilot tokenization initiatives, while the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company Intercontinental Exchange has backed a project with OKX to launch tokenized stocks.
Crypto traders have become hopeful for a market rally after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.
However, analysts are split on whether a near-term market surge is a reliable signal for traders.
“For now, traders are expecting a bullish relief rally in spite of no changes being made,” Santiment said in an X post on Wednesday, pointing to an increase in bullish sentiment among crypto market participants on social media who are linking the Fed’s steady rates to a potential crypto rally.
The social media discussion score surged from roughly 9 to 71 in the hours after the Fed’s “expected outcome” on Wednesday to hold rates steady at 3.5-3.75%.
Fed policy is a strong catalyst for Bitcoiners
“This is likely due to the fact that the bearish price action related to the lack of cuts already occurred yesterday,” Santiment said.
Fed policy has historically been a major catalyst for optimism among crypto market participants, with traders eyeing rate cuts in 2025 as a signal for a possible bull year for Bitcoin.
However, a pause in rates can increase expectations that cuts could come next.
Several analysts said they are expecting a crypto rally, but they are divided on how long it could last.
“Bull trap” may be on the horizon
Bitcoin (BTC) onchain analyst Willy Woo recently warned that a potential “bull trap” may be forming, a false signal that Bitcoin is entering an uptrend before reversing lower.
Bitcoin has fallen 4.35% over the past 24 hours, trading at $70,790 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Matthew Hyland said that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will “see a significant rally” once the stock market finds its low and rebounds. The S&P 500 has fallen 3.73% over the past 30 days, according to Google Finance.
Echoing a similar sentiment, crypto trader Moustache said in an X post on Monday, “What you’ll see in the coming months is a massive rally.”
Related: ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ author says ‘pin is near’ on TradFi ‘bubble burst:’ Predicts $750K Bitcoin
Other indicators suggest that crypto investors are still taking a cautious approach to the market.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, fell back into “Extreme Fear” territory on Wednesday, after briefly moving up into “Fear” the day prior.
Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?
The crypto market sell-off since October hasn’t deterred institutional investors, with a new survey showing most plan to increase exposure to digital assets in the coming year.
According to a January survey of 351 institutional investors conducted by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon, 73% of respondents said they plan to increase their allocations of digital assets in 2026, while 74% expect crypto prices to rise over the next 12 months.
Two-thirds of respondents said exchange-traded products (ETPs) and other regulated vehicles have become their preferred way to gain exposure, reflecting growing familiarity with these instruments and a broader shift toward regulated access points. Regulation was also cited as a key factor attracting institutional participation.
On the regulatory front, more than three-quarters of respondents cited market structure as the most important area requiring clarity — a concern that comes as US lawmakers continue to debate legislation defining how digital assets are classified and regulated across agencies.
Market volatility, however, is reshaping how institutions approach crypto. Nearly half (49%) of respondents said recent turbulence has led them to place greater emphasis on risk management, liquidity and position sizing, rather than reducing exposure.
Related: Crypto’s 2026 investment playbook: Bitcoin, stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized assets
Stablecoins, tokenization gain traction
One of the key takeaways from the survey is growing institutional interest in emerging blockchain use cases such as stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).
According to the findings, 85% of respondents use or plan to use stablecoins for payments and treasury operations, with settlement and internal cash management cited as primary use cases.
Part of that momentum is being driven by US regulatory developments, with 83% of respondents saying the passage of the GENIUS Act will increase financial institutions’ willingness to engage with stablecoins. More than two-thirds (69%) said the law will drive broader adoption of stablecoin-based transactions.
Meanwhile, interest in tokenized assets continues to grow, with 63% of investors expressing interest in gaining exposure and 61% expecting tokenization to have a significant impact on market structure in the coming years.
Related: SEC’s ‘Crypto Mom’ calls for simpler disclosure rules, flags tokenization debate
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