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3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Won’t Stay Below $80,000 for Long

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Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin got off to a rough start in February as negative sentiment persisted and market liquidity weakened. However, the latest data suggests that selling pressure is gradually easing, while early signs of recovery are emerging.

These signs are not yet strong enough to confirm a reversal, but they remain some of the few positive signals in this phase.

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3 Reasons Bitcoin Could Soon Recover From Below $80,000

A recent report from BeInCrypto noted that crypto funds saw $1.7 billion in outflows last week. This reversed year-to-date inflows into net losses.

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Still, early indicators suggest that selling pressure may be fading. This is evident in the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other exchanges.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is recovering, even though it remains negative. This is an early signal that buying demand from the United States via Coinbase is slowly returning. Historically, this often points to a reversal once the premium moves from negative to positive.

“Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is recovering. April 2025 lows have been taken. Not calling for a mega rally, but things are looking good for a relief rally,” investor Ted predicted.

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Another signal that has been interpreted pessimistically is that Bitcoin is currently trading below the average cost basis of all US Bitcoin ETF funds. CryptoQuant data places this level at around $79,000.

Bitcoin US ETF Realized Price. Source: CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin US ETF Realized Price. Source: CryptoQuant.

However, historical trends since the approval of US Bitcoin ETFs show that Bitcoin rarely stays below this cost level for long.

History suggests that this zone often acts as demand support before a strong rebound. Institutional investors and long-term holders typically have little incentive to sell at a loss below their cost basis.

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The chart shows that during the most bearish phase in Q3 2024, Bitcoin tested this level multiple times. Each time, the price recovered within one to two weeks.

“If you missed the sub-$80k boat, it just came back to pick you up. You’re now buying Bitcoin cheaper than the average price of every US ETF combined. Wall Street is down 10% on their entry, while you’re just getting started. Max pain for them = Max opportunity for you. Don’t overthink the dip,” analyst Whale Factor commented.

While many analysts continue to highlight negative signals, Swissblock — a Switzerland-based crypto analytics and investment firm — noted a positive convergence between network growth and liquidity that emerged in early February.

Bitcoin Network Growth vs Liquidity. Source: Swissblock
Bitcoin Network Growth vs Liquidity. Source: Swissblock

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Swissblock noted that the last time network growth and liquidity recovered together from low levels was in 2021, just before Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. This suggests that another recovery phase could be approaching.

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“Sustained growth in these indicators could be the catalyst for one last push,” Swissblock predicted.

Overall, these signs suggest that Bitcoin may not remain below $80,000 for long and could soon climb back above this level.

However, not all outlooks are optimistic. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, warned that Bitcoin’s recent weakness could persist. The price could even fall further toward the 200-week moving average, near $58,000, in the coming weeks or months. The main drivers include declining liquidity and the lack of positive short-term catalysts.

These differing perspectives provide a broader view of the forces shaping the market. They may also help traders reduce risk while attempting to capture potential opportunities.

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Crypto World

Cross-Chain Governance Attacks – Smart Liquidity Research

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Cross-Chain Governance Attacks - Smart Liquidity Research

The Governance Exploit Nobody Is Pricing In. Bridges get hacked. That’s old news. We’ve seen the carnage: nine-figure exploits, drained liquidity, emergency shutdowns, Twitter threads filled with “funds are safu” copium.

From Ronin Network to Wormhole, bridge exploits have become a recurring tax on innovation. But here’s the uncomfortable truth. The next systemic risk in crypto probably won’t be a bridge exploit. It’ll be a governance exploit enabled by cross-chain voting power. And almost nobody is pricing it in.

The Shift: From Asset Bridges to Power Bridges

Cross-chain infrastructure has evolved.

We’re no longer just bridging tokens for yield. We’re bridging:

Protocols increasingly allow governance tokens to exist on multiple chains simultaneously — often via wrapped representations or omnichain token standards (like those enabled by LayerZero Labs).

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This improves capital efficiency and participation.

But it also introduces a new attack surface:

The separation of voting power from finality.

The Core Problem: Governance Is Local. Voting Power Is Not.

Governance contracts typically live on a single “home” chain.

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But voting power can be represented across multiple chains.

This creates a dangerous gap:

  1. Tokens are locked on Chain A

  2. Voting power is mirrored on Chain B

  3. Governance decisions are executed on Chain A

If the system relies on cross-chain messaging to sync voting balances, any delay, exploit, or manipulation in that messaging layer becomes a governance vector.

You don’t need to drain liquidity.

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You just need to distort voting power long enough.

And governance proposals often pass with shockingly low turnout.

The Attack Path Nobody Talks About

Let’s walk through a hypothetical.

Step 1: Acquire or Manipulate Voting Power Cross-Chain

An attacker:

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  • Borrows governance tokens

  • Bridges them to a secondary chain

  • Exploits a delay in balance updates

  • Or abuses inconsistencies in wrapped token accounting

In poorly designed systems, the same underlying tokens may temporarily influence voting in multiple domains.

Even if briefly.

Even if “just a bug.”

Governance doesn’t need hours. It needs one block.

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Step 2: Flash Governance

We’ve already seen governance flash-loan exploits in DeFi.

The most infamous example? The attack on Beanstalk in 2022.

The attacker used flash loans to acquire massive voting power, passed a malicious proposal, and drained ~$182M.

Now imagine that dynamic — but across chains.

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Flash-loaned tokens → bridged representation → governance vote → malicious proposal executed → unwind.

All before the watchers even understand what happened.

Step 3: Proposal Payloads as Weapons

Governance proposals can:

If cross-chain voting power is compromised, the proposal payload becomes the exploit.

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No bridge drain required.

Just governance “working as designed.”

Why Markets Aren’t Pricing This Risk

Three reasons.

1. Everyone Is Still Fighting the Last War

After major bridge hacks, teams hardened signature validation and multisig thresholds.

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But governance-layer risk is subtler.

It doesn’t show up as “TVL at risk” on dashboards.

It shows up as “who controls protocol direction.”

That’s harder to quantify.

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2. Voting Participation Is Low

Many DAOs struggle to get 10–20% participation.

Which means:

You don’t need 51%.

You need slightly more than apathy.

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Cross-chain voting power distortions don’t need to be massive. They just need to be decisive.

3. Composability Multiplies Complexity

Modern governance stacks combine:

  • Delegation contracts

  • Token wrappers

  • Cross-chain messaging

  • Snapshot systems

  • Execution timelocks

Each layer introduces potential inconsistencies.

And composability means failures cascade.

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Where the Real Risk Lives

This isn’t about one protocol.

It’s systemic.

The more governance tokens become:

The more fragile governance assumptions become.

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If a governance token is:

You’ve built a multi-dimensional voting derivative.

And derivatives break under stress.

Ask TradFi. They have scars.

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The Governance Exploit Nobody Is Pricing In

Markets price:

  • Smart contract risk

  • Bridge exploit risk

  • Oracle manipulation risk

But they do not price:

Cross-domain voting synchronization risk.

No dashboards are tracking:

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  • Governance message latency

  • Cross-chain vote desync windows

  • Wrapped-token vote inflation

  • Double-counted delegation

Yet these variables may determine who controls billion-dollar treasuries.

What Builders Should Be Doing (Now)

If you’re designing cross-chain governance:

1. Separate Voting Power from Bridged Liquidity

Avoid naïve 1:1 mirroring without strict finality checks.

2. Introduce Vote Finality Windows

Require:

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  • Cross-chain state verification

  • Message settlement delays

  • Proof-of-lock confirmations

Before votes are counted.

3. Use Decay or Cooldowns on Newly Bridged Tokens

Voting power shouldn’t activate instantly after bridging.

If tokens just moved chains 5 seconds ago, maybe they shouldn’t decide protocol destiny.

4. Simulate Governance Stress Scenarios

Run adversarial simulations:

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If your governance model breaks under simulation, it will break in production.

What Investors Should Be Asking

Before allocating to a multi-chain DAO:

  • Where does governance live?

  • How is voting power mirrored?

  • Can voting power be double-counted during bridge latency?

  • What happens if the messaging layer stalls?

  • Is there a time lock between the vote and execution?

If the answers are vague, the risk is real.

And it’s not priced in.

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The Inevitable Wake-Up Call

Crypto learns through catastrophe.

  • Smart contract exploits → audits became standard.

  • Oracle exploits → TWAP and redundancy

  • Bridge hacks → validator hardening

Governance-layer cross-chain exploits are likely next.

And when it happens, it won’t look like a hack.

It’ll look like a proposal that “passed.”

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That’s the scary part.

Final Thought

Cross-chain infrastructure is powerful. It enables capital mobility, global participation, and modular design.

But it also decouples authority from location.

And when authority becomes fluid across chains, attackers don’t need to steal funds.

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They just need to win a vote.

That’s the governance exploit nobody is pricing in.

And by the time the market does, it’ll already be too late.

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Payoneer Adds to Crypto, Fintech Firms Seeking Bank Charter

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Payoneer Adds to Crypto, Fintech Firms Seeking Bank Charter

Global financial services firm Payoneer is the latest in a growing number of companies that have filed for a national trust banking charter in the US, which could enable it to issue a stablecoin and provide various crypto services.

Payoneer said on Tuesday it filed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to form PAYO Digital Bank, a week after it partnered with stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge to add stablecoin capabilities to its platform that is mainly focused on cross-border transactions.

Payoneer said that it is seeking to issue a GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin, PAYO-USD, to serve as the holding currency in Payoneer wallets, in addition to allowing customers to pay and receive stablecoins.

OCC approval would also enable Payoneer to manage PAYO-USD reserves, offer custodial services and enable customers to convert between the stablecoins into their local currency.

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“We believe stablecoins will play a meaningful role in the future of global trade,” said Payoneer CEO John Caplan.

Source: Payoneer

The OCC gave conditional approval to Crypto.com for a charter on Monday, adding to the banking charters won by crypto companies Circle, Ripple, Fidelity Digital Assets, BitGo and Paxos in December.

Related: Better, Framework Ventures reach $500M stablecoin mortgage financing deal

The Trump family’s World Liberty Financial also applied for one in January to expand the use of its USD1 (USD1) stablecoin, but is still awaiting a decision. 

Crypto trading platform Laser Platform also submitted an application in January, while Coinbase has been awaiting a decision on its application since October.

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Stablecoins ideal for business cross-border transfers: Payoneer

Payoneer said OCC approval would allow it to offer its nearly two million customers, which are mostly small and medium-sized businesses, a regulated stablecoin solution to simplify cross-border trade.