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3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Won’t Stay Below $80,000 for Long

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Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin got off to a rough start in February as negative sentiment persisted and market liquidity weakened. However, the latest data suggests that selling pressure is gradually easing, while early signs of recovery are emerging.

These signs are not yet strong enough to confirm a reversal, but they remain some of the few positive signals in this phase.

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3 Reasons Bitcoin Could Soon Recover From Below $80,000

A recent report from BeInCrypto noted that crypto funds saw $1.7 billion in outflows last week. This reversed year-to-date inflows into net losses.

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Still, early indicators suggest that selling pressure may be fading. This is evident in the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other exchanges.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is recovering, even though it remains negative. This is an early signal that buying demand from the United States via Coinbase is slowly returning. Historically, this often points to a reversal once the premium moves from negative to positive.

“Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is recovering. April 2025 lows have been taken. Not calling for a mega rally, but things are looking good for a relief rally,” investor Ted predicted.

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Another signal that has been interpreted pessimistically is that Bitcoin is currently trading below the average cost basis of all US Bitcoin ETF funds. CryptoQuant data places this level at around $79,000.

Bitcoin US ETF Realized Price. Source: CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin US ETF Realized Price. Source: CryptoQuant.

However, historical trends since the approval of US Bitcoin ETFs show that Bitcoin rarely stays below this cost level for long.

History suggests that this zone often acts as demand support before a strong rebound. Institutional investors and long-term holders typically have little incentive to sell at a loss below their cost basis.

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The chart shows that during the most bearish phase in Q3 2024, Bitcoin tested this level multiple times. Each time, the price recovered within one to two weeks.

“If you missed the sub-$80k boat, it just came back to pick you up. You’re now buying Bitcoin cheaper than the average price of every US ETF combined. Wall Street is down 10% on their entry, while you’re just getting started. Max pain for them = Max opportunity for you. Don’t overthink the dip,” analyst Whale Factor commented.

While many analysts continue to highlight negative signals, Swissblock — a Switzerland-based crypto analytics and investment firm — noted a positive convergence between network growth and liquidity that emerged in early February.

Bitcoin Network Growth vs Liquidity. Source: Swissblock
Bitcoin Network Growth vs Liquidity. Source: Swissblock

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Swissblock noted that the last time network growth and liquidity recovered together from low levels was in 2021, just before Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. This suggests that another recovery phase could be approaching.

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“Sustained growth in these indicators could be the catalyst for one last push,” Swissblock predicted.

Overall, these signs suggest that Bitcoin may not remain below $80,000 for long and could soon climb back above this level.

However, not all outlooks are optimistic. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, warned that Bitcoin’s recent weakness could persist. The price could even fall further toward the 200-week moving average, near $58,000, in the coming weeks or months. The main drivers include declining liquidity and the lack of positive short-term catalysts.

These differing perspectives provide a broader view of the forces shaping the market. They may also help traders reduce risk while attempting to capture potential opportunities.

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Crypto World

Will The Rally Continue as BTC Nears Key Breakout Point?

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Will The Rally Continue as BTC Nears Key Breakout Point?

Bitcoin is pressing into a major test. The rebound from the $60,000 area has now extended into the mid-$70,000s, which means the price is no longer just recovering. It is challenging the first real ceiling of this bounce, and that makes the current zone especially important for the next directional move.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

The daily chart has improved meaningfully, but the broader trend has not fully flipped yet. BTC is now pushing back into the $75,000 to $80,000 region, which marked the previous breakdown area and has now turned into a heavy supply zone. The price is also approaching the higher trendline of the descending channel again, while still trading beneath both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, located at $80,000 and $93,000 levels, respectively.

That combination makes the current level a key decision area. If buyers can reclaim this region with a clean daily break, the recovery would start to look much more structural. If not, this could still end up being another lower-high rejection inside the broader corrective trend. For now, the chart is stronger than it was a few weeks ago, but not yet fully repaired.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the structure remains constructive. Bitcoin has continued printing higher lows and highs inside its rising recovery channel, and the latest move has carried the price right into the upper resistance band around $73,000 to $76,000. That shows buyers are still in control in the short term.

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Momentum is also firm, with the RSI holding in the upper half of its range and recently pushing higher again. Still, the market is now at a confluence zone where horizontal resistance and the upper trend boundary meet. So this is where continuation needs confirmation. A breakout could open the door to a stronger leg higher, while rejection here would likely drag BTC back toward the middle of the channel.

Sentiment Analysis

From a sentiment perspective, funding rates remain negative even as the price keeps climbing. That is a notable divergence. It shows that derivatives traders are still not leaning aggressively long, and short exposure remains relatively elevated despite the recovery.

That kind of backdrop is often supportive rather than bearish in the near term. When the price rises while funding stays subdued or negative, it suggests the move is not being driven by overcrowded bullish leverage. In other words, sentiment is still cautious, and that leaves room for upside if BTC can break resistance, since the market has not yet reached an overheated condition, and a short liquidation cascade could be the fuel the price needs to jump aggressively.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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Bitrefill Claims Lazarus Group Hacked Them, Stealing Funds

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Bitrefill Claims Lazarus Group Hacked Them, Stealing Funds

Crypto e-commerce store Bitrefill has revealed it was the victim of a cybersecurity attack on March 1, with the methods used closely resembling those of Lazarus Group, North Korea’s notorious hacking organization.

In a post to X on Tuesday, Bitrefill said the hackers used malware, on-chain tracing, and reused IP and email infrastructure to compromise an employee’s laptop, enabling them to drain funds from the company’s hot wallets while also accessing 18,500 purchase records, potentially revealing “limited customer information.”

Bitrefill said BlueNoroff Group, another North Korean hacking organization with close ties to the Lazarus Group, may have also been involved or been the sole attacker.


Source: Bitrefill

Bitrefill, which enables customers to spend crypto on real-world products and gift cards, said there was no evidence that the hackers extracted its database, suggesting the motive was financial.

“There is no evidence that they extracted our entire database, only that the attackers ran a limited number of queries consistent with probing to understand what there was to steal, including cryptocurrency and Bitrefill gift card inventory.”

While Bitrefill didn’t disclose how much funds were stolen, the company said it “will absorb” those losses from its operational capital.

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“Almost everything is back to normal: payments, stock, accounts,” Bitrefill said, adding: “Sales volumes are also back to normal, and we are eternally thankful to our customers for your continued confidence in us.”