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46% of Bitcoin supply now in loss, near 2022 bear levels

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46% of Bitcoin supply now in loss, near 2022 bear levels

Around 46% of BTC, or 9.09m coins, sit at a loss in early 2025, nearing 2022 bear‑market loss concentrations after the 2024–2025 rally unwound.

Summary

  • About 9.09m BTC, roughly 46% of the 19.8m circulating supply, are below their last on‑chain transaction price, the second‑highest loss reading since mid‑2022’s ~10m‑coin peak.
  • Previous cycle lows saw 50–60% of BTC supply in loss; current levels mirror late‑2022 conditions but at much higher absolute prices, as many 2024–2025 entrants are now underwater.
  • CryptoQuant data show net realized profits flipping to net losses since late 2025, with holders realizing up to 69k BTC in aggregate losses, resembling the 2021–2022 bull‑to‑bear transition

Approximately 9.09 million Bitcoin (BTC), representing roughly 46% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply, is currently held at a loss as of early 2025, according to data from CryptoQuant.

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The figure marks the second-highest loss concentration recorded in CryptoQuant’s dataset spanning from July 2020 through early 2026, falling just below the peak reached during the 2022 bear market.

The BTC Supply in Profit/Loss chart from CryptoQuant displays coins held at a loss as a negative figure, with the current reading of negative 9.09 million coins approaching the deepest loss concentration visible on the chart. That record was set in mid-2022, when approximately 10 million coins were underwater as Bitcoin fell following the Luna and FTX contagion events.

The circulating supply of Bitcoin totals approximately 19.8 million coins, meaning nearly half of all Bitcoin that has moved on-chain is currently held below its last transaction price.

A key distinction separates the current period from the 2022 bear market. While a comparable number of coins were held at a loss during both periods, Bitcoin’s absolute price level remains significantly higher now than in 2022. The current loss concentration reflects holders who entered the market during the 2024-2025 rally and are now underwater, according to the data.

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High supply-in-loss readings create specific market dynamics, according to market analysts. Holders facing losses experience pressure to either sell or maintain positions through corrections. Those with the highest cost basis relative to current prices typically exhibit lower conviction in long-term recovery.

The 2022 period provides a historical reference point. The supply-in-loss figure peaked near 10 million coins in late 2022 before declining as the market bottomed and new buying brought coins back into profit. That decline from peak loss concentration preceded the sustained price recovery that extended through 2023 and 2024.

Whether the current 9.09 million coin reading represents a peak depends on price stabilization at current levels or further decline, according to analysts tracking the metric.

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Crypto World

SEC Sends Proposed Crypto Interpretation to White House for Review

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Cryptocurrencies, Law, SEC, White House

The financial regulator’s plan to reinterpret how federal securities laws apply to crypto assets is ”pending review” by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has forwarded its proposal to have most crypto assets not treated as securities under federal law to the White House’s Office of Management and Budget.

According to information available through the US General Services Administration, on Friday the SEC sent two proposed rules to the White House for review, including its interpretative notice from last week regarding which digital assets the agency could consider a security under federal law.

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As of Monday, government records showed the proposal as “pending review” by the White House, potentially changing how the SEC handles regulation and enforcement of digital assets.

Cryptocurrencies, Law, SEC, White House
Source: Reginfo.gov

In a notice issued by the SEC last week, Chair Paul Atkins said that the agency would not consider four types of digital assets as securities under its purview: digital commodities, digital tools, digital collectibles — including non-fungible tokens — and stablecoins. The interpretation said that it would provide the agency with a “coherent token taxonomy” for the four types of assets and address how a “non-security crypto asset” may or may not be considered an investment contract.

The SEC rule, if finalized, would provide a bridge to crypto regulation until Congress were to pass a market structure bill to clarify comprehensive regulations of digital assets. The interpretation of federal securities laws followed the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — the other federal financial regulator expected to regulate digital assets under the proposed market structure bill — earlier this month.

Related: CFTC staff clarify expectations on using crypto as collateral

White House reportedly reached “agreement in principle” on crypto bill

Politico reported on Friday that representatives from the White House and Congressional lawmakers reached a deal on stablecoin yield that could advance the market structure bill in the Senate Banking Committee. The panel indefinitely postponed its markup of the bill, called the CLARITY Act, in January following Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong saying the exchange could not support the legislation as written.

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As of Monday, the banking committee had not publicly announced a new date for the bill’s markup. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly said in March that the chamber intended to prioritize a vote on the SAVE America Act — legislation that would require voters to provide proof of US citizenship in person to register — before bills with bipartisan support, such as CLARITY.

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