Crypto World
$6 Billion Bitcoin Short Positions May Fuel Rally Back Above $90K
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has dropped 14.5% in the past 16 days, pushing the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to 16 (Extreme Fear), which is its lowest rating year-to-date.
While selling has dominated markets over the past two weeks, Bitcoin derivatives data suggest the current trader positioning may lead to a recovery. Analysts are now weighing whether the latest sell-off has created conditions for a relief rally.
Key takeaways:
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Binance open interest has climbed more than 30% from its October 2025 lows, confirming rising activity within the Bitcoin futures market.
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A move toward $92,000 may put over $6.5 billion in short positions at risk of liquidation.
Market imbalance opens the door to a relief rally
From a technical standpoint, BTC has swept its swing lows between $80,000 and $83,000, clearing a large cluster of long liquidations. With that downside liquidity taken, attention is shifting higher.
CoinGlass data shows that a move toward $92,000 may place over $6.5 billion in cumulative short positions at risk of liquidation. By contrast, a drop to $72,600 would only threaten about $1.2 billion. This imbalance means upside moves may force short sellers to buy back positions, potentially accelerating price recovery.
Additionally, crypto commentator MartyParty framed the recent move as part of a Wyckoff Accumulation “Spring,” where price briefly dips below support to shake out weak hands before reversing.
In this context, the sweep below $83,000 may act as a final liquidity grab, allowing larger participants to buy discounted Bitcoin. If followed by sustained buying, the next phase may exhibit a price expansion with upside targets extending back toward $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin’s ‘miner exodus’ could push BTC price below $60K
Bitcoin futures positioning shows mixed signals
Bitcoin’s decline triggered an estimated $800 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, the largest single-day event since late November, when BTC last traded near $81,000.
Yet, according to crypto analyst Darkfost, the open interest on Binance has risen to 123,500 BTC, exceeding levels seen ahead of Oct. 10, when open interest fell to 93,600 BTC. A roughly 31% increase since then suggests traders are rebuilding exposure rather than fully exiting the market.
Broader derivatives activity has also cooled. Monthly Bitcoin futures volume across all exchanges fell to about $1.09 trillion in January, the lowest since 2024. Trading remained concentrated on major venues, led by Binance with $378 billion, followed by OKX at $169 billion and Bybit near $156 billion.
Related: Bitcoin loses crucial $84K support: How low can BTC price go?
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Grayscale has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch the Grayscale HYPE ETF, a proposed spot exchange-traded fund tied to Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE.
Summary
- Grayscale filed for a Nasdaq-listed HYPE ETF tied to Hyperliquid’s native token price movement.
- The proposed fund may add staking later, though it will not offer staking initially.
- Hyperliquid remains the largest onchain perps venue despite slower volumes and growing competition from rivals.
If approved, the fund would trade on Nasdaq under the ticker GHYP and would give investors listed market access to the token without holding it directly.
Meanwhile, the filing adds Grayscale to a growing list of firms seeking investment products linked to Hyperliquid, a blockchain focused on decentralized perpetual futures trading. The move also comes as crypto ETF issuers continue to expand beyond Bitcoin and Ether into newer digital assets.
Grayscale’s S-1 filing said the proposed fund would track the price of HYPE. The company named Coinbase Custody as custodian and said it would use CoinDesk benchmark pricing data for valuation. The filing did not disclose a management fee.
The application places Grayscale alongside other issuers already pursuing similar products. Bitwise and 21Shares filed for Hyperliquid-linked funds earlier, showing that asset managers are starting to test investor demand for exchange-traded products tied to newer crypto tokens.
Filing includes possible future staking option
The filing said staking is not allowed for the fund at launch. It also noted a “Staking Condition” that could be satisfied later, which may allow the product to add staking in the future.
That part of the filing follows a broader trend in crypto ETFs. Fund issuers have shown interest in adding staking rewards, but U.S. regulators have moved more slowly on that issue than on basic spot fund approvals. Grayscale said it may consider staking later if conditions permit.
Moreover, Hyperliquid has become one of the best-known platforms in decentralized perpetual futures trading. Market data cited in the report said the network remains the largest onchain venue for perps, even as new competitors entered the market in 2025.
Weekly trading volume on Hyperliquid has ranged from about $40 billion to $100 billion this year, according to DeFiLlama data cited in the report. While volumes have cooled from earlier peaks, the platform remains ahead of rivals such as Aster, Lighter, and edgeX.
Broader ETF push expands beyond major tokens
The Grayscale filing comes during a period of wider crypto ETF activity in the United States. Under SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the agency has approved a broader set of crypto-related funds, though rules around staking remain less clear.
Hyperliquid is still not available to U.S. users on its core platform, but its profile has grown as more firms watch decentralized trading infrastructure.
A tentative agreement on stablecoin yield may help restart progress on the CLARITY Act in Washington. Reports said White House officials and US lawmakers are working on terms that could address one of the main disputes that slowed the crypto market structure bill earlier this year.
Summary
- A reported agreement in principle may help restart stalled progress on the CLARITY Act.
- Lawmakers are weighing limits on stablecoin yield to address bank deposit flight concerns carefully.
- Crypto industry review is still pending before any stablecoin yield compromise becomes final law.
The talks center on whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield to holders. That issue has divided crypto firms and banks, with both sides watching closely as lawmakers try to move the bill forward.
A Politico report said Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Angela Alsobrooks reached an “agreement in principle” on stablecoin yield. Both senators sit on the Senate Banking Committee, which has played a central role in digital asset policy talks.
Alsobrooks said the deal would help “protect innovation” while also limiting the risk of deposit flight from the banking system. She added that the agreement would block stablecoin yield on “passive balances,” pointing to a narrower path for how yield could work under future rules.
CLARITY Act remains stalled over key questions
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 had been expected to move ahead after the GENIUS stablecoin framework became law. That changed when debate grew around whether stablecoin issuers could share yield directly with token holders.
Industry groups and lawmakers have treated that issue as a central point in the bill. Senator Tillis said the crypto industry still needs to review the emerging agreement before anything is finalized, which means the text may still change before formal action.
Speaking at the DC Blockchain Summit, Senator Cynthia Lummis said, “We are so close” to passing a broader crypto framework. A spokesperson for Lummis also said a deal could come together within days as work continues on ethics language tied to the bill.
Those comments suggest lawmakers are still trying to package stablecoin policy and market structure rules into a wider crypto framework. The timing remains uncertain, but the latest talks show that negotiations are active again after the January slowdown.
Banks and crypto firms remain split
Banks have opposed yield-bearing stablecoins, saying they could pull deposits away from traditional accounts. That concern has been one of the strongest arguments against allowing broad yield features in stablecoin products.
The White House has also heard the opposite case. Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, said those concerns are overstated and argued that regulated yield-bearing stablecoins could bring new capital into the US banking system.
Key Takeaways
- United Airlines shares declined 4.46% Friday following CEO Scott Kirby’s announcement of a 5% reduction in planned flights.
- Since late February, jet fuel prices have surged nearly 100% amid the Iran conflict.
- The carrier is scenario-planning for crude oil reaching $175 per barrel, with prices potentially remaining above $100 until late 2027.
- At present fuel price levels, United faces an additional $11 billion in annual fuel expenses.
- Despite capacity cuts, United will maintain its aircraft delivery schedule and avoid employee furloughs.
United Airlines (UAL) saw its shares fall 4.46% Friday after CEO Scott Kirby informed employees the airline would reduce its flight schedule by approximately 5%. The decision follows a dramatic spike in jet fuel costs, which have almost doubled since late February due to escalating conflict in Iran.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., UAL
In an internal memo published on the company’s official website, Kirby detailed the challenging outlook ahead. The airline is preparing contingency plans for crude oil prices potentially reaching $175 per barrel, with expectations that prices could remain above $100 through 2027’s end.
If these projections materialize, the additional fuel expenditure would approach $11 billion annually — exceeding twice the profit United generated during what Kirby described as the company’s most successful year on record.
The airline has been systematically eliminating underperforming routes. This includes certain midweek departures, Saturday services, and red-eye flights experiencing softer passenger demand.
According to the revised operational plan, United will eliminate approximately three percentage points of lower-demand flying during the second and third quarters. Additionally, the carrier will reduce roughly one percentage point of capacity from its Chicago O’Hare hub.
Routes to Tel Aviv and Dubai remain suspended indefinitely. Combined, these adjustments represent approximately five percentage points of the airline’s annual capacity projections.
Kirby indicated that United intends to resume full scheduling this autumn — provided fuel costs stabilize rather than continue climbing.
Rising Ticket Prices Provide Some Relief
Strong travel demand is offering partial relief from mounting costs. Major U.S. carriers have successfully implemented two consecutive fare increases of approximately $10 per direction. Kirby noted that bookings completed over the past week showed fare increases of 15% to 20%.
According to Melius Research analysts, robust booking trends could support an additional 5% to 7% fare adjustment. United revealed that the initial 10 weeks of 2026 represented the strongest booking period in company history.
Competitor Delta Air Lines has similarly signaled willingness to reduce capacity if elevated prices persist, following an upward revision to its first-quarter revenue guidance this week.
U.S. carriers face particular vulnerability compared to certain European and Asian competitors — the majority don’t employ fuel hedging strategies, leaving them significantly exposed to volatile price fluctuations.
Growth Plans Remain Intact
Notwithstanding immediate capacity reductions, Kirby assured employees that United’s broader expansion strategy remains unchanged.
The airline will proceed with accepting delivery of approximately 120 new aircraft throughout this year, including 20 Boeing 787 wide-body jets. An additional 130 aircraft are scheduled for delivery by April 2028.
Kirby emphasized that United will avoid employee furloughs and maintain planned investments — marking a departure from strategies employed during previous industry downturns.
In after-hours trading Friday, UAL stock recovered slightly, gaining 1.49% to reach $91.29, clawing back some of the session’s losses.
Key Highlights
- A temporary restraining order from Nevada’s First Judicial District Court was issued against Kalshi on Friday, lasting 14 days
- Kalshi must cease offering sports, entertainment, and election-related contracts within Nevada
- Nevada’s Gaming Control Board initially ordered Kalshi to discontinue sports contracts in 2025
- A jurisdictional battle is underway between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction market oversight
- Kalshi faces additional charges in Arizona for operating without a gambling license
A Nevada court has mandated that prediction market operator Kalshi suspend its event contract offerings within the state for a minimum of two weeks. On Friday, March 20, the First Judicial District Court of Nevada handed down this temporary restraining order.
The judicial order encompasses all sports-related, entertainment, and election wagering contracts available through the platform. A subsequent court hearing has been calendared for April 3.
This legal conflict has been ongoing. Nevada’s Gaming Control Board initially sent a cease-and-desist directive to Kalshi in 2025, demanding the platform discontinue all sports-related event contracts operating within state boundaries.
Kalshi contested this action, maintaining that its federal regulatory oversight should take precedence over state-level jurisdiction. The platform attempted to transfer the proceedings to federal court.
This strategy was unsuccessful. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rejected Kalshi’s request for a stay on Thursday and remanded the matter to Nevada’s state court system.
The Nevada judge determined that the gaming board’s regulatory functions are compromised while Kalshi continues operations without obtaining a state license. The ruling stated that an “unlicensed participant beyond the Board’s control” interferes with the board’s statutory responsibilities.
Kalshi has not issued a statement regarding the Nevada decision.
Federal Regulator Asserts Authority
On the federal front, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig has been actively challenging state enforcement actions. He submitted a legal brief contending that the CFTC, rather than individual states, possesses proper regulatory authority over prediction market platforms.
Selig has reiterated this position during multiple public appearances and has committed that his agency will maintain its jurisdictional claims. The CFTC has additionally issued regulatory guidance informing exchanges that list event contracts that compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act is mandatory.
Major League Baseball has aligned with the federal regulatory framework, executing a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC regarding prediction market supervision. MLB separately announced a collaborative arrangement with Polymarket this week.
Escalating State Actions
Nevada represents just one jurisdiction taking action against Kalshi. Earlier in the week, Arizona’s attorney general filed charges against the company for conducting an unlicensed gambling operation and facilitating illegal election betting.
Tennessee has similarly initiated legal proceedings against prediction market platforms concerning sports-related contracts.
Federal legislators have also expressed concerns. In January, Democratic Representative Ritchie Torres proposed legislation to restrict how elected officials engage with prediction markets, prompted by wagers placed on the potential capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Last week, Democratic lawmakers unveiled the “Death Bets Act,” proposing a prohibition on prediction market contracts related to death, armed conflict, or political assassination.
The Nevada court acknowledged that federal preemption questions in this regulatory space are “nuanced and rapidly evolving.”
The upcoming hearing in the Nevada proceedings is scheduled for April 3, 2026.
Crypto World
Federal Reserve Rate Hike Probability Surges to 25% as Iran Conflict Escalates Oil Prices
Key Takeaways
- Bank of America analysts suggest Federal Reserve could increase interest rates if ongoing Iran conflict pushes crude oil beyond the $80 threshold
- Rate hike probability has surged to 25% by year-end, jumping from virtually zero just five days earlier
- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated rate reductions remain off the table without demonstrable inflation improvements
- Bitcoin faces significant headwinds, battling to maintain the $70,000 support level amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty
- Typically dovish Fed Governor Chris Waller shifted his stance, voting to maintain current rates citing escalating inflation concerns
The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory has undergone a dramatic reversal. Market expectations have flipped from anticipating rate reductions just days ago to seriously considering the prospect of monetary tightening for the first time in years.
This remarkable transformation stems from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that erupted on February 28, driving crude oil prices upward and reigniting inflation anxieties. Bank of America’s analysis identifies three critical catalysts that could trigger a Fed rate increase: continued labor market resilience, Jerome Powell’s extended tenure as Federal Reserve chair beyond current expectations, and persistent oil price elevation driven by Middle East conflict.
According to BofA strategists, the likelihood of tightening intensifies significantly should oil prices sustain levels above $80 per barrel. Recent weeks have seen crude trading consistently near this critical threshold.
Powell’s Recent Commentary
During this week’s FOMC press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that rate reductions will not materialize without concrete evidence of inflation moderation. While he avoided explicitly forecasting a rate increase, Powell acknowledged such action doesn’t represent the consensus baseline among policymakers.
Powell further disclosed he may remain in his current position until his anticipated successor, Kevin Warsh, completes the Senate confirmation process. This timeline remains uncertain. Should Powell continue leading the Fed through the June FOMC meeting while Iran-related oil price pressures persist, the case for tightening could strengthen considerably.
Market pricing reflected zero expectation of rate increases just five days ago. Current CME FedWatch interest rate futures now indicate approximately 25% probability of a hike materializing by December. This represents an extraordinary sentiment shift over an exceptionally brief period.
Polymarket prediction markets show 35% odds that the Federal Reserve implements zero rate cuts throughout 2024. The probability of an outright rate hike has climbed to 19%, nearly doubling from the 8% level recorded when the conflict initially erupted.
Cryptocurrency Market Response
Bitcoin is experiencing considerable strain. The leading cryptocurrency has encountered difficulty maintaining the $70,000 level as inflation concerns mount and rate cut expectations evaporate. The aggregate cryptocurrency market capitalization declined from an intraday peak of $2.4 trillion to $2.37 trillion within a single trading session.
Crypto assets experienced a temporary relief bounce before resuming their downward trajectory alongside equity markets. Two-year Treasury yields surged to 3.89%, marking the widest spread above the Fed’s policy rate in three years. This development signals bond market participants are incorporating expectations of tighter monetary conditions ahead.
Polymarket data indicates the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire has declined to 42%, suggesting traders anticipate continued conflict.
Fed Governor Chris Waller, who previously advocated for rate cuts following a disappointing February employment report, reversed his position this week. He cited elevated inflation risks connected to the Iran situation as the decisive factor in his vote to maintain current rates. Waller emphasized the prudence of adopting a wait-and-see approach before committing to any policy easing measures.
Quick Overview
- SOL maintains position near $88, defending critical trendline support following retreat from $95 resistance
- Market sentiment deteriorated to 30 (Fear) on the Fear and Greed Index after Fed Chair Powell’s remarks regarding Iran conflict economic implications
- The network handled more than 880 million transactions in the past week, though weekly fee generation stayed modest at $4.6 million
- Real-world asset tokenization on Solana has exceeded $1.82 billion, while RWA-focused DeFi protocols reached $465 million in total value locked
- Market observers identify the $50–$80 zone as a prime accumulation area, with optimistic long-term projections ranging from $500 to $1,000
Solana continues to trade near the $88 mark following its recent decline from $95 highs. The digital asset remains supported by a critical trendline that market participants are monitoring with heightened attention.
Daily trading volume has contracted to $3.3 billion, representing a significant decrease from the $6.5 billion recorded on March 16 when SOL momentarily reached $95. Market bulls seem to be securing gains prematurely during upward movements as overall crypto market confidence weakens.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index experienced a notable shift from 46 (Neutral) down to 30 (Fear) following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement characterizing the economic consequences of the Iran conflict as “uncertain.” Rising crude oil prices could potentially fuel inflation, possibly forcing the Fed to postpone or abandon planned interest rate reductions in 2025.
Network Usage Outpaces Fee Generation
The Solana blockchain handled upwards of 880 million transactions throughout the previous week. This figure approaches the network’s peak of 959 million transactions recorded during the week concluding February 8.
Despite robust network utilization, weekly fee collection totaled merely $4.6 million. This represents a 50% reduction compared to fees generated during Solana’s June–September 2025 price surge, when transaction volumes were comparatively lower at 700–800 million weekly.
Reduced fee generation typically signals diminished network valuation prospects. Market analysts interpret the existing disconnect between transaction throughput and revenue generation as a potentially bearish indicator for the intermediate term.
From a technical perspective, SOL confronts critical resistance at the $87 threshold. Failure to maintain this level could trigger a descent toward $77, representing an 11.5% downward move. Conversely, successful defense coupled with substantial volume during U.S. market hours might catalyze a recovery attempt toward $100.
Real-World Asset Tokenization Achieves New Milestone
Solana’s real-world asset infrastructure surpassed $1.82 billion in tokenized holdings on March 20. This encompasses digitized debt instruments, equity securities, and investment funds deployed on the blockchain.
DeFi applications focused on RWA integration within the Solana ecosystem achieved a record $465 million in total value locked. Although Ethereum maintains dominance in absolute RWA market capitalization, Solana continues expanding its footprint in this emerging sector.
Digital asset analyst Crypto Patel shared observations on X platform indicating that monthly timeframe charts demonstrate a validated breakout, successful support retest, and robust defense of technical levels. Patel emphasized that Fibonacci retracement zones are properly established and characterized the $50–$80 range as an exceptional accumulation opportunity. Drawing from historical cycle analysis, Patel projected SOL could potentially climb to $500–$1,000 if previous market patterns materialize again.
SOL presently hovers around $88, with the $87 support zone serving as the immediate critical threshold for near-term price direction.
Crypto World
$7 Trillion Quadruple Witching Friday Triggers Historic Derivatives Expiration on Wall Street
TLDR:
- An estimated $5.7 to $7.1 trillion in derivatives expired on March 20, marking the largest March witching in history.
- The CBOE Volatility Index surged past 30 as institutional investors rushed to roll over massive expiring positions.
- NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon faced heavy selling pressure amid AI fatigue and forced index rebalancing on Friday.
- CME Group, Cboe Global Markets, and Virtu Financial emerged as key winners from record trading volumes and volatility.
Quadruple Witching Friday, March 20, 2026, sent shockwaves across Wall Street as an estimated $5.7 to $7.1 trillion in financial derivatives expired simultaneously.
Stock options, index options, and index futures all converged in one trading session. Analysts are calling this the largest March expiration on record.
The CBOE Volatility Index surged past 30 as institutional investors scrambled to roll over massive positions. The event exposed deep anxieties about inflation, geopolitical risk, and AI sector valuations.
Record-Breaking Expiration Rattles Equity Markets
The scale of Friday’s expiration was unprecedented, representing roughly 10.2% of the Russell 3000’s total market capitalization. That alone set the session apart from any prior March expiration in history.
Market journalist Kristen Shaughnessy captured the mood on social media, noting: “It was a Quadruple Witching Friday. ‘The $7 Trillion Witching Hour: Derivatives Avalanche Triggers Historic Volatility on Wall Street.’”
Hedge funds and institutional desks spent weeks hedging against rising geopolitical tensions. Brent Crude prices pushed toward $110 per barrel amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, creating a stagflationary cloud over markets.
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold, keeping rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, further fueled bearish sentiment. Roughly 60% of S&P 500 options activity on Friday was tilted toward put positions.
The Nasdaq-100 dropped 1.2% within the opening thirty minutes before recovering half those losses by mid-morning. This whipsaw action is a trademark of Quadruple Witching sessions driven by high-frequency trading algorithms.
AI-Centric Tech Stocks Bear the Brunt of Rebalancing Pressure
NVIDIA faced notable selling pressure as institutional funds trimmed winners to meet new index weightings. After a strong run through 2024 and 2025, the chipmaker now faces growing skepticism about AI infrastructure returns.
Microsoft and Amazon also saw heavy outflows. Their large market capitalizations made them primary liquidity sources for funds needing to rebalance portfolios during the expiration window.
Apple and Meta were similarly caught in the crosshairs. Apple’s lengthening smartphone replacement cycle made it a frequent put target, while Meta’s 2026 infrastructure spending is projected to exceed $100 billion.
Meanwhile, exchange operators emerged as clear winners. CME Group and Cboe Global Markets posted strong transaction volumes.
Electronic market maker Virtu Financial also stood to benefit from wider bid-ask spreads and elevated retail options activity.
The broader market felt the ripple effects across asset classes. A brief inversion in parts of the Treasury curve occurred as investors sought safety in short-term bills amid the liquidity crunch.
Looking ahead, the week following March 20 is expected to bring a volatility hangover as traders reassess second-quarter positions.
Jerome Powell’s departure from the Federal Reserve in May adds another layer of uncertainty to the market outlook.
If inflation data cools in April, sidelined capital could return quickly. However, a sustained break below the 6,700 level on the S&P 500 could signal the start of a broader downturn.
The market’s ability to hold key moving averages will remain the most watched indicator in the near term.
Bitcoin started the week buoyant but quickly pared gains as a broad risk-off mood took hold across markets. The flagship cryptocurrency dipped about 5% as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and gold trended lower, while crude oil surged roughly 7.3% and remained up about 53% since the conflict in the Middle East escalated on Feb. 28. The scale of the move points to a coordinated capital reallocation as traders reassess risk in a geopolitically tense environment.
Analysts frame the move as part of a wider cycle where liquidity, inflation dynamics and headline risk interact in ways that can stretch even established markets. The evolving backdrop—tied to the ongoing conflict in the region—has traders recalibrating exposures across traditional assets and crypto-linked vehicles alike.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin trades down near 5% as major risk assets retreat; oil climbs about 7.3%, underscoring a broad bid for energy and a shift in risk appetite since the Feb. 28 escalation.
- The Kobeissi Letter reports a combined $64 billion outflow from the SPY and QQQ ETFs over the last three months, the largest on record and roughly 5% of total assets under management, reversing a prior flow in November.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $253 million in outflows over the past two days, while monthly crypto-spot ETF inflows stay positive at about $1.48 billion—yet cumulative outflows from November through February total around $6.3 billion, signaling a fragile recovery in demand.
- On-chain signals from Glassnode show profit-taking pressures and a market that struggles to absorb realizations, with the net realization flow temporarily surging before BTC slipped back below $70,000. Glassnode cautions that geopolitical uncertainty is compressing demand depth.
- Analysts offer divergent views on the path forward: some recall a Russia-Ukraine-era pattern of a brief rally followed by a sharper downturn, while others warn that a protracted Iran-related conflict could prolong a risk-off regime, with a potential bottom near $55,000 before any meaningful rebound.
Geopolitics, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s price arc
Market participants are watching how geopolitical developments shape liquidity and investor risk tolerance. After an initial uptick, Bitcoin’s price momentum softened as traders weighed the implications of prolonged conflict and rising energy costs. While oil has rallied, broad risk assets have faced a renewed bout of selling, with traders seeking liquidity and hedges in a more uncertain macro environment.
“Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market’s capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.”
Industry observers have highlighted that the pattern mirrors episodes when major geopolitical events interact with liquidity constraints. While BTC showcased some resilience during earlier periods of turmoil, persistent stress on liquidity and energy prices tends to dampen the impulse to chase short-term rebounds, potentially extending the stabilization phase before a sustained rally can take hold.
ETF flows and the uphill climb for crypto exposure
The latest flow data illustrate a bifurcated landscape. On the one hand, there is continued resilience in aggregate crypto-spot ETF inflows for the month, roughly totaling $1.48 billion, signaling ongoing demand for regulated exposure to digital assets. On the other hand, the two-day outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs—around $253 million—underscore how capital remains sensitive to macro headlines and risk-off episodes. In the longer horizon, cumulative outflows from November through February tally around $6.3 billion, suggesting that institutional demand for crypto, while positive on a monthly basis, has yet to regain the footing seen in the pre-crisis period.
In a separate but related frame, the Kobeissi Letter highlighted a record outflow sweep from major equity ETFs tracking the broader market—the SPY and QQQ—over the last three months, totaling roughly $64 billion. That figure marks the largest such exodus on record and translates to about 5% of assets under management moving away from those benchmarks, illustrating a broad risk-off shift that also ripples into crypto markets as investors recalibrate holdings across asset classes.
On-chain signals and analyst mood music
On-chain analytics provider Glassnode offered a lens into the day-to-day dynamics underpinning price moves. The firm noted a burst of net realized profit-taking, briefly accelerating to around $17 million per hour on a 24-hour basis, before momentum faded and BTC slipped again below the $70,000 level. Glassnode framed the development as evidence of a market struggling to absorb moderate realizations in the current geopolitical climate.
The analysis captures a broader tension: as risk assets wobble, liquidity becomes more expensive or harder to source, and traders face a squeeze from energy costs and forced selling during stress periods. In such a setup, even modest realizations can ripple through order books, damping price durability and delaying a more decisive rebound.
Different voices on the near-term trajectory
Market commentary in recent days has coalesced around two plausible narratives. One perspective, echoing patterns observed during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, suggests Bitcoin may experience an initial rally before a more pronounced pullback, as risk-off dynamics persist and traders reassess hedges and exposure. The other view centers on the Iran-related dimension of the current conflict: in a social media thread, a trader argued that until the Iran situation is resolved, upside for BTC could remain capped as macro risk-off dominates markets. The analyst suggested a potential bottom around the $55,000 area before a more durable recovery might unfold.
It’s a reminder that the near-term path for Bitcoin remains tethered to a complex mix of geopolitical developments, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite. Traders should remain attentive to energy prices, the pace of capital withdrawals from traditional equity ETFs, and shifts in on-chain activity that could offer hints about whether demand depth is gradually returning or staying restrained.
What to watch next
As the conflict continues to shape market sentiment, several threads could inform the next leg for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Oil prices and energy costs will likely influence risk tolerance and macro liquidity. Equity ETF flows—particularly the behavior of SPY and QQQ—offer a useful barometer of institutions’ comfort with taking or avoiding risk. On-chain metrics, including realized profit and loss, will continue to reflect the balance between holders looking to realize gains and new buyers stepping in to absorb selling pressure.
In the immediate term, traders should monitor whether the market stabilizes around key levels or if the risk-off regime intensifies, prolonging a period of consolidation. If liquidity conditions ease and geopolitical headlines move toward resolution, Bitcoin could regain momentum; if not, the market may test lower supports before a more sustainable recovery emerges.
Readers should stay tuned for updates on both macro developments and crypto-specific fund flows, as these two threads remain tightly linked in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.
Key Takeaways
- Grayscale has submitted an S-1 filing to the SEC for a spot Hyperliquid ETF, becoming the third firm alongside Bitwise and 21Shares
- HYPE posted approximately 21% gains over the past week, with prices hovering between $40 and $43
- The token momentarily surpassed Cardano (ADA) in market capitalization, cracking the top 10 rankings
- Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, projects HYPE could reach $150 by August 2026
- The Hyperliquid platform processes approximately $500 million in daily volume, allocating 97% of revenues toward HYPE token buybacks
Grayscale has submitted an S-1 registration filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval for a spot Hyperliquid exchange-traded fund. Should regulators greenlight the proposal, the fund would list on Nasdaq using the ticker symbol GHYP, with Coinbase serving as the designated custodian. The company has not yet revealed what management fees would apply.
This submission positions Grayscale as the third major asset manager pursuing a Hyperliquid ETF, following earlier applications from Bitwise and 21Shares. Bitwise initially submitted its filing in September before revising the application in December to incorporate staking capabilities. 21Shares similarly included provisions for potential staking features in its October submission.
Grayscale has indicated it might incorporate staking into the GHYP offering down the line, although no concrete timeline has been established. Adding staking functionality would enable fund investors to generate additional returns beyond any appreciation in HYPE’s market value.
Institutional Interest Grows Alongside Price Performance
The surge in ETF applications coincides with strong market momentum for HYPE. The token posted approximately 21% gains throughout the week, climbing into the $40 to $43 price corridor. This upward movement temporarily propelled Hyperliquid above Cardano (ADA) by market capitalization, securing a brief spot among the top 10 cryptocurrencies.
Cardano also experienced positive price action this week, approaching $0.29, though the gains proved insufficient to maintain its ranking advantage. Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez identified a possible bullish setup for ADA, noting that maintaining support at $0.23 could enable a rally toward $0.32 and potentially $0.37.
Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX, has openly declared a $150 valuation target for HYPE by August 2026. This projection implies roughly a fivefold increase from previous price levels around $30. Hayes contends that Hyperliquid’s tokenomics—which channel approximately 97% of platform revenues into HYPE buyback programs—create a direct connection between the platform’s financial performance and token valuation.
Trading Volume Fuels Token Economics
Hyperliquid operates as a decentralized exchange specializing in perpetual futures contracts. The platform processes between $40 billion and $100 billion in weekly trading activity, establishing it as the dominant player in this segment based on DeFiLlama metrics.
Daily transaction volumes have peaked near $500 million in recent sessions. The exchange is simultaneously pursuing product expansion, including initiatives to bring traditional S&P 500 exposure on-chain.
Multiple competing platforms such as Aster, Lighter, and edgeX have entered the market in 2025, capturing modest market share, though Hyperliquid maintains commanding leadership during most weekly periods.
Aggregate weekly perpetual futures volume across all decentralized platforms has ranged between $125 billion and $300 billion throughout this year—representing more than double the activity levels recorded during the comparable timeframe last year.
HYPE continues trading in the $40–$43 band following its 21% weekly advance.
Crypto World
U.S. Treasury Unlocks Sanctioned Iranian Oil to Cut Prices and Counter Tehran’s Energy Attacks
TLDR:
- U.S. Treasury issued a short-term authorization releasing 140 million barrels of stranded Iranian oil to global markets.
- China had been quietly hoarding sanctioned Iranian oil at discounted prices before the Treasury intervened with this measure.
- Iran will struggle to access revenue from the oil sales as maximum pressure on its financial system stays fully intact.
- The Trump administration has now moved roughly 440 million additional barrels of oil into global supply through targeted actions.
Iranian oil stranded at sea is set to reach global markets under a new U.S. Treasury measure. The Treasury Department announced a short-term authorization permitting the sale of sanctioned Iranian oil.
This move is part of President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iran’s role in global terrorism. The authorization is narrowly designed and covers only oil already in transit. It does not permit new purchases or production from Iran.
U.S. Turns Iranian Oil Barrels Against Tehran to Stabilize Global Energy Supply
The Trump administration is using sanctioned Iranian oil as a strategic tool against Tehran. China has been buying this supply at discounted prices, according to Treasury officials.
Around 140 million barrels will be released to global markets through the authorization. This aims to relieve temporary supply pressures caused by Iran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the measure on X, describing Iran as the head of the snake for global terrorism. He noted that Operation Epic Fury is progressing faster than initially anticipated.
The authorization directly responds to Iran’s terrorist attacks on global energy infrastructure. Bessent framed the move as deploying America’s economic and military strength against Tehran.
The authorization is strictly limited to oil already at sea and in transit. New purchases and new production of Iranian oil remain prohibited under existing U.S. sanctions.
These restrictions ensure the measure does not expand access to Iran’s broader energy sector. The short-term, narrowly tailored nature of the authorization is fundamental to its scope.
So far, the Trump administration has brought approximately 440 million additional barrels to global markets. The latest authorization adds 140 million more barrels to that cumulative total.
Together, these efforts work to undercut Iran’s leverage over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy supply expansion remains central to the administration’s ongoing Iran pressure strategy.
Iran’s Revenue Access Stays Blocked as Maximum Pressure Policy Remains in Force
Despite the temporary authorization, Iran will face serious challenges accessing any revenue from the oil sales. The Treasury confirmed that maximum pressure on Iran’s financial systems will continue uninterrupted.
Iran’s access to international financial networks remains heavily restricted under active U.S. sanctions. This limits Tehran’s capacity to economically benefit from the measure.
President Trump’s pro-energy agenda has driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels. This has strengthened energy security and helped lower fuel costs for American consumers.
The administration views energy dominance as both an economic and geopolitical asset. Strong domestic supply reduces global vulnerability to state-sponsored energy disruptions.
The Treasury’s authorization fits within a broader coordinated economic and military campaign. Both tools are being deployed to maximize the flow of energy to global markets.
Bessent confirmed that the U.S. aims to ensure market stability throughout Operation Epic Fury. Sanctions enforcement and targeted supply relief are being applied in tandem.
Bessent stated that any short-term market disruption will translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans. The administration maintains that there is no prosperity without security.
Operation Epic Fury continues applying pressure on Tehran while stabilizing global oil supply. Further measures remain available should Iran escalate its attacks on energy infrastructure.
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