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83% of Altcoins Enter Bear Trend as Liquidity Crunch Tightens Grip on Crypto Market

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • 83% of altcoins on Binance are trading below the 50-week moving average, signaling a broad bear trend.
  • Bitcoin has dropped to roughly 46% of its $126,000 all-time high recorded back in October 2025.
  • On February 7, a new record was set with over 92% of Binance altcoins falling below a key technical level.
  • Rising altcoin token supply combined with constrained liquidity continues to suppress price recovery across markets.

Altcoins are facing mounting pressure as a liquidity crunch pushes 83% of them into a bear trend. Data from Binance shows most assets, excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins, are now trading below their 50-week moving average.

Investors still holding these positions are under considerable stress. Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since October 2025, following an all-time high of $126,000. Its price currently sits at roughly 46% of that record peak.

BTC Downtrend Weighs Heavily on Altcoin Performance

Bitcoin’s decline from its all-time high has created a difficult environment for altcoins. The broader market continues to follow BTC’s direction, which has remained uncertain in recent months.

At its current level, Bitcoin trades at approximately 46% below its record high. This has left many altcoin investors with little room to recover losses.

Macro factors are adding to the pressure felt across crypto markets. Rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have increased uncertainty among investors.

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Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish tone in its latest FOMC minutes. These conditions make highly volatile assets like altcoins especially difficult to hold.

According to analyst Darkfost_Coc, 83% of altcoins on Binance are now below the 50-week moving average. This level is widely considered a key threshold for identifying long-term trends.

Falling below it generally signals a corrective phase for an asset. The current reading shows how broadly the bear trend has spread.

A new record was set on February 7, when over 92% of Binance altcoins traded below this level. That marked the worst reading since the bear market ended in 2023.

It stands in stark contrast to March 2024, when only 6% of altcoins sat below this threshold. December 2024 posted a similarly low reading of just 7%.

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Supply Surge and Constrained Liquidity Drive Market Imbalance

The altcoin market has also been shaped by a steady rise in token supply. More projects launching means more assets competing for the same pool of capital.

When liquidity is constrained, new supply puts further downward pressure on prices. This dynamic has made it harder for most altcoins to sustain any upward momentum.

Outside of brief recovery windows, at least 50% of altcoins have remained below the 50-week moving average. This pattern differs notably from the behavior observed in the previous market cycle.

The current cycle appears structurally different, with liquidity playing a much larger role. That shift has caught many investors off guard.

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Darkfost_Coc noted that outperforming in this environment requires a clear understanding of how market dynamics have evolved.

Careful asset selection and a structured investment plan are also considered essential by analysts. Without both, navigating the current conditions becomes increasingly difficult. The market rewards preparation over speculation in periods like this.

The combination of macro headwinds, rising supply, and BTC uncertainty continues to define conditions for altcoins. Investors still holding positions face an extended and challenging road ahead.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin $60K Retest Odds Rise As Bearish Options, ETF Outflows Show Fear

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Bitcoin $60K Retest Odds Rise As Bearish Options, ETF Outflows Show Fear

Key takeaways:

  • Professional traders are paying a 13% premium for downside protection as Bitcoin struggles to maintain support above $66,000.

  • While stocks and gold remain strong, $910 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows suggest that institutional investor caution is rising.

Bitcoin (BTC) price entered a downward spiral after rejecting near $71,000 on Sunday. Despite successfully defending the $66,000 level throughout the week, options markets reflect growing fear as professional traders avoid downside price exposure. 

Even with relative strength in the stock market and gold prices, traders seem to be effectively betting on a $60,000 retest rather than overreacting to Bitcoin price dips.

BTC two-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a 13% premium relative to call (buy) instruments on Thursday. Under neutral conditions, the delta skew metric typically ranges between -6% and +6%, indicating balanced demand for upside and downside strategies. The fact that these levels have been sustained over the past four weeks shows that professional sentiment is leaning heavily toward caution.

Top BTC options strategies at Derbit past 48h, USD. Source: Laevitas.ch

This bearish bias is clear in the neutral-to-bearish positioning seen in Bitcoin options. According to Laevitas data, the bear diagonal spread, short straddle and short risk reversal were the most traded strategies on the Deribit exchange over the past 48 hours.

The first lowers the cost of the bearish bet because the short-term option loses value faster, while the second maximizes profit if Bitcoin price barely moves. The short risk reversal, on the other hand, generates profit from a downward move with little to no upfront cost, but it carries unlimited risk if the price spikes.

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Weak institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs fuels discontent

To better gauge the risk appetite of traders, analysts often look at stablecoin demand in China. When investors rush to exit the cryptocurrency market, this indicator usually drops below parity.

USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

Under neutral conditions, stablecoins should trade at a 0.5% to 1% premium relative to the US dollar/Yuan exchange rate. This premium compensates for the high costs of traditional FX conversion, remittance fees and the regulatory friction caused by China’s capital controls. The current 0.2% discount suggests moderate outflows, though this is an improvement from the 1.4% discount seen on Monday.

Part of the current discontent among traders can be explained by the lackluster flows in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which serve as a proxy for institutional demand. 

Related: Bitcoin ETFs still sit on $53B in net inflows despite recent outflows–Bloomberg

US-listed Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: Farside Investors

US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have seen $910 million in total outflows since Feb. 11, which likely caught bulls off balance, especially as Bitcoin traded 47% below its all-time high while gold prices hovered near $5,000, up 15% in just two months. Similarly, the S&P 500 index sat only 2% below its own all-time high, indicating that this risk-aversion is largely restricted to the cryptocurrency sector.

While Bitcoin options signal a fear of further downside, traders are likely staying extremely cautious until a clear rationale for the crash to $60,200 on Feb. 6 finally emerges.

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