Bitcoin and most altcoins experienced a decline in value following recent geopolitical developments, with Bitcoin facing rejection at $71,000. 

The broader cryptocurrency market, including Ethereum, XRP, and other major tokens, followed Bitcoin’s downward trend. Meanwhile, one altcoin, SIREN, managed to defy the market slump with a significant surge.

Bitcoin’s price faced significant volatility this week, with a high of $76,000 on Monday after it broke above $74,000. However, its upward momentum was short-lived, and the price quickly returned to $74,000 by Wednesday. 

Volatility spiked ahead of and after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with Bitcoin falling by $3,000 before the event. After the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged, Bitcoin briefly bounced back to $72,000. 

However, hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding no rate reductions in 2026 led to another drop, with Bitcoin reaching a three-week low of around $68,000. Despite efforts to recover, the cryptocurrency is still struggling to regain stability.

Altcoins follow Bitcoin’s decline

Ethereum has experienced a decline of over $300 since its peak of $2,400, dropping below $2,100. XRP also saw a sharp drop, rejected at $1.60, and now struggles below $1.40. Other prominent altcoins like Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and Chainlink (LINK) are all down by 2-4% in the past 24 hours.

One of the worst performers in this market downturn has been HYPE, which lost almost 5% of its value and now trades around $38. ZEC (Zcash) also experienced a significant drop, shedding 7% of its value. Other altcoins such as AAVE, DOT, and SUI are down by 3-4%.

SIREN defies the market slump

While the majority of the crypto market faced losses, SIREN, an AI-focused cryptocurrency operating on the BNB chain, saw a remarkable surge. The token skyrocketed by 90% in the past 24 hours, reaching a new all-time high of over $1.70. 

SIREN’s performance stands in contrast to the broader market slump, making it one of the standout performers during this period of market uncertainty.

Moreover, the total cryptocurrency market cap has taken a hit, shedding nearly $200 billion since Wednesday morning. As of the latest data, the total market cap stands at $2.43 trillion. This decline is a direct result of the drop in Bitcoin and altcoin prices, which have been influenced by both macroeconomic factors and market sentiment following the FOMC meeting.

A new report from 10x Research reveals that the cryptocurrency market is currently seeing a divide in capital flows between retail and institutional investors. While institutional capital continues to support assets like Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH), the XRP ecosystem is experiencing strong growth driven by retail adoption.

According to the 10x Research report, XRP’s price action is mainly supported by “strong retail demand and expanding utility.” The XRP ecosystem is seeing increasing adoption, with retail investors leading the charge in its growth. 

While institutional interest in XRP remains cautious, retail investors continue to push the asset forward. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is developing real-world use cases, but the absence of significant institutional flows reflects a more conservative stance from Wall Street.

Institutional capital continues to be a driving force for other major cryptocurrencies, particularly Solana and Ethereum. According to the report, institutional interest in Solana remains strong, as shown by its $20 million in ETF net flows for the week, while Ethereum has seen institutional outflows of $60 million. 

In contrast, XRP ETFs only saw a modest $0.6 million in positive flows, reinforcing the notion that institutional investors are still cautious about XRP despite its growing retail base.

In addition, XRP’s strength is being supported by growing on-chain retail adoption. Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that the XRP Ledger recently reached a new milestone, with 5.66 million wallets holding under 100 XRP. This surge in retail participation signals that the XRP ecosystem is attracting more users despite the lack of significant institutional investment.

Ripple’s CTO emeritus David Schwartz recently engaged in an interesting exchange on X, responding to a post about XRP with a meme and supporting comments. 

Meanwhile, the interaction occurred after a statement from Solana Foundation President Lily Liu, which sparked reactions from the crypto community, particularly surrounding the future of blockchain gaming.

The conversation began when Solana’s official X account responded to a tweet from the Solana Foundation President, Lily Liu, who had stated that blockchain gaming was “not coming back.” In response, an X user jokingly announced they were switching chains and asked for a recommendation. Solana’s official account replied, saying, 

“we hear XRP is nice this time of year.”

This prompted Ripple CTO emeritus David Schwartz to engage with the tweet from XRP-friendly exchange Bitrue. Bitrue had shared Solana’s tweet, and Schwartz responded with a GIF meme saying, “You’re goddamn right,” further fueling the ongoing discussion about XRP and Solana’s relationship. This playful back-and-forth highlighted the ongoing rivalry and camaraderie between the two blockchain ecosystems.

In December 2025, XRP made its way onto the Solana blockchain via Hex Trust’s wrapped XRP (wXRP) token. This move allowed XRP to be traded alongside the Ripple USD stablecoin (RLUSD) on the Solana network, marking a significant step in the collaboration between the two blockchains. The integration also raised curiosity about how these ecosystems could coexist and complement each other.

Schwartz’s response reflects the growing relationship between the two projects. Despite the ongoing competition in the blockchain space, it appears that XRP and Solana are finding ways to collaborate and engage with each other’s communities.

XRP Ledger activity and AI coding

Meanwhile, XRP Ledger (XRPL) has seen a spike in activity recently, with XRPL validator Vet suggesting that increased use of AI tools and scripts might be contributing to the rise in transactions. While this increase in activity is positive, Vet pointed out that it often results in complex queries or failed transactions, which can overload public infrastructure.

One user experienced a costly mishap, spending over $2,000 in transaction fees due to failed XRP Ledger transactions. Vet cautioned that while AI tools may improve efficiency, users should remain cautious and oversee their transactions to prevent potential issues.

VanEck, a prominent investment firm, has observed a shift in the Bitcoin (BTC) options market, highlighting growing defensive positioning from investors. The recent surge in put option demand and the drop in call option premiums signal a cautious outlook for Bitcoin’s price. This trend reflects investor concerns about macroeconomic factors and market volatility.

In early 2026, the Bitcoin options market has shown signs of heightened caution. VanEck’s analysis reveals that the put/call open interest ratio has risen to 0.84, the highest level since June 2021, reflecting stronger demand for downside protection. 

Over the past 30 days, investors spent approximately $685 million on put options, signaling their concern for further price declines. Meanwhile, premiums on call options fell about 12%, to around $562 million, suggesting that bullish sentiment has waned.

This shift in sentiment coincides with a 19% decline in Bitcoin’s price over the last month. Despite this drop, spot prices have stabilized, and the market has entered a phase of consolidation, with volatility decreasing from 80 to 50. The drop in futures funding rates, which fell from 4.1% to 2.7%, further suggests that leverage in the market has cooled.

VanEck’s report indicates that the demand for downside protection is at its highest level in recent cycles. The put premiums relative to spot volume have reached an all-time high, with put premiums three times higher than levels seen during the market stresses of mid-2022. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium to hedge against further price drops, signaling a defensive stance.

The options skew, where put options are more expensive than call options, reflects this growing concern. As of March 2026, the cost of protecting against price drops is significantly higher than the cost of betting on price increases, with implied volatility on puts averaging 66, which is 16 points higher than realized volatility. Historically, this type of skew has often been seen before Bitcoin’s price rebounds.

Industry trends and network activity

Despite the heightened caution in the options market, other indicators show that the Bitcoin market is stabilizing. On-chain activity, such as transaction volume and daily active addresses, has declined, reflecting a more subdued speculative environment. However, long-term holder selling seems to be slowing down, which could be a positive sign for the market’s stability.

Bitcoin’s price recently surged to $70,000 before correcting, indicating potential signs of a cyclical bottom. VanEck’s CEO, Jan VanEck, has suggested that this may signal a recovery for Bitcoin, as the market adjusts to lower volatility and reduced leverage.

Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.

• BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.

As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.

That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.

BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks

The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.

As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.

Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.

“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.

A 50% drop from Bitcoin’s current price would imply a downside target of roughly $34,350 if the historical pattern repeats. Multiple analysts have projected Bitcoin to drop as low as $30,000–$40,000 in 2026.

In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.

Related: Bitcoin options signal fear even as BTC ETF outflows remain relatively low

Macro conditions, such as elevated oil prices, inflation, and lower odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, support the bearish outlook for Bitcoin and equities over the coming months.

Strategy pause adds to cautious outlook

Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.

Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.

Its last acquisition, announced March 16, added 22,337 BTC worth $1.57 billion, bringing total holdings to 761,068 BTC. Bitcoin rallied by around 10.50% in the same period, beating US stocks.

Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.