Crypto World
Analyst warns traders pricing in TACO trade could face a rude awakening
Traders are underestimating how deeply the current conflict in the Middle East could reshape the macro backdrop, with some positioning around a so‑called “TACO trade”—short for “Trump always chickens out”—dominating chatter in crypto and broader markets. Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, popularized the term to describe a supposed tendency for U.S. leadership to back away from geopolitical flare‑ups. But he cautions that the situation is far more intricate than a single decision by any one leader, and there are no quick exits from a widening conflict.
Oil prices have become a central barometer for the scenario. If crude stays above $100 per barrel, growth in the United States could slow while Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rises, potentially by as much as one percentage point, according to Puckrin. That dynamic would complicate the Federal Reserve’s already delicate task of steering policy in an environment where inflation remains persistent and growth is uncertain. The risk of stagflation—the painful combination of rising prices with weak growth and employment—emerges as a real possibility if energy costs stay elevated through the second and third quarters.
Key takeaways
- Oil could stay a decisive driver: Sustained prices above $100 per barrel threaten growth and lift inflation in tandem, increasing stagflation risk.
- The TACO trade is not a guaranteed play: While the term captures a belief in limited appetite for geopolitical escalation, experts warn that policymakers and markets should expect a more complex, drawn‑out conflict with no easy exit.
- Strait of Hormuz disruption compounds the risk: Prolonged disruption through the vital chokepoint raises the energy price floor and feeds into broader inflation dynamics.
- Policy path remains uncertain: The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75%, with market odds of a near‑term cut fading and a non‑zero probability (about 12%) of a rate increase at the next meeting.
- Crypto and risk assets face a nuanced outlook: Higher energy costs and uncertain monetary policy can dampen liquidity for risk assets, even as some traders seek hedges or tactical exposure.
Oil shocks, chokepoints, and the market’s fragile balance
The incoming energy data and geopolitical risk have pushed crude higher in recent sessions, with WTI briefly touching the high‑end of the $110s and flirting with $120 per barrel as the conflict widened. The persistent tension around the Middle East has intensified concerns that global supply flows could be constrained if oil infrastructure faces sustained disruption. Market observers point to the Strait of Hormuz as a pivotal artery—through which a sizable portion of the world’s oil shipments pass—and note that any sustained closure or damage could push prices higher for an extended period.
Analysts emphasize that even a reopening of maritime routes would not instantly restore pre‑crisis conditions. “Disruption to the Gulf’s oil-producing infrastructure will take months to rebuild,” one commentator noted, underscoring the slow‑burn impact on prices and the broader economy. The energy price surge feeds through to a wide array of goods and services, often lifting inflation broadly rather than affecting a single sector in isolation. In such a regime, inflationary pressures can push the real cost of living higher while limiting the central bank’s ability to loosen financial conditions quickly.
Beyond the immediate supply shock, energy is a fundamental input into nearly all economic activity. When energy costs rise, every sector faces higher costs, and central banks can find themselves juggling the risk of inflation against the imperative to support growth. The macro calculus becomes especially delicate if markets price in a persistent energy premium that persists through the next several quarters, complicating any hopes of an early, policy‑driven risk‑on rally for crypto and other speculative assets.
Policy uncertainty and the Fed’s calculated stance
The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to hold the Federal Funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% in March reflected a cautious stance in the face of renewed energy‑driven inflation risks. Market observers say that near‑term rate cuts have faded from the central scenario, while a minority of traders assign a non‑negligible probability to a rate move higher in the near term, as reflected by the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which placed the odds of a hike at around 12% for the next meeting.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the economic implications of the Middle East conflict are unclear in the near term. Speaking at a press conference, he stressed that while energy prices are a potential drag on inflation and growth, it is still “too soon” to accurately gauge the full scope of the disruption’s impact on the broader economy. The central bank’s ongoing assessment will hinge on incoming data, including energy price trajectories, inflation readings, and indicators of domestic demand.
Measured against today’s macro backdrop, the risk premium for risk assets, including crypto, could be influenced by how energy costs evolve and how quickly monetary policy adapts. If energy prices remain elevated and inflation proves more persistent than anticipated, the Fed may lean toward a tighter stance for longer, which could constrain liquidity in markets and temper speculative appetites. Conversely, any signs of cooling inflation or a surprise easing in market stress could renew expectations for looser policy and a more favorable environment for higher‑beta assets.
What readers should watch next
Investors should monitor three interconnected threads in the coming weeks: first, the trajectory of global oil prices and the duration of any supply disruptions through strategic chokepoints; second, the evolving assessment of inflation and growth signals that inform Fed policy; and third, how sentiment around geopolitical risk interacts with liquidity conditions in crypto markets. With the energy‑inflation nexus likely to dominate near‑term headlines, traders would be wise to differentiate between narrative positioning and data‑driven developments as markets digest the evolving risk landscape.
In this environment, the market’s reflex to geopolitical risk could remain biphasic: periods of reprieve followed by renewed volatility as new information emerges about the conflict’s scope, energy infrastructure resilience, and policy responses. Keep an eye on energy price momentum, central bank communications, and liquidity signals across major crypto and traditional risk assets to gauge where the next phase of the cycle may lead.
Japan’s cabinet has approved a draft amendment that would classify cryptocurrencies as financial products, marking a shift in how the country regulates the sector.
The proposal brings crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, a framework used for stocks and other securities, Nikkei reported. If passed during the current parliament session, the law could take effect as early as fiscal 2027.
Until now, Japan has treated crypto mainly as a payment tool under the Payment Services Act. That approach focused on custody, anti-money laundering checks and exchange registration. The new rules would ban insider trading and require issuers to publish annual disclosures.
Penalties would also rise. Operating without registration could bring up to 10 years in prison, up from three, and fines could increase to 10 million yen ($62,800). The Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission would gain broader authority to police the market.
In a press conference, Minister for Financial Services Satsuki Katayama said the move will “expand the supply of growth capital in response to changes in the financial and capital markets, ensuring market fairness, transparency, and the protection of investors.”
Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto (NAKA) is resorting to a familiar Wall Street playbook as it looks to lift its beating-down share price and stay on Nasdaq.
The company is seeking approval for a “reverse stock split” that would combine shares at a ratio to be set between 1-for-20 and 1-for-50, according to a preliminary proxy filing (Schedule 14A), as it has seen a collapse in its share price to around $0.22. Prices are down roughly 99% from its May 2025 peak.
A reverse stock split reduces the number of shares outstanding while increasing the share price proportionally, for example turning 20 shares at $0.20 into one share at $4. While it does not change the company’s underlying value, it is commonly used to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s $1 minimum bid requirement and avoid delisting. Nasdaq mandates listed companies to maintain a minimum bid price of $1 per share, and firms that fail to ensure that within a specific period risk being delisted.
Nakamoto recently sold about 5% of its bitcoin holdings, leaving it with 5,058 BTC, pointing to ongoing liquidity management.
Other bitcoin treasury firms have taken similar steps, including Strive Asset Management earlier this year. Most DAT shares have taken a beating in recent months, tracking the collapse in BTC’s spot price to roughly $70,000 from over $126,000 in October.
Alongside the reverse split, the company, in a Form S-3 filing, registered more than 400 million shares for potential resale by existing investors. This does not raise new capital, but creates a large overhang that could weigh on the stock.
The company also has a shelf registration allowing up to roughly $7 billion in future securities issuance. This is separate from an at the market (ATM) program of up to approximately $5 billion, which would allow it to sell newly issued shares directly into the market over time.
Flare published a governance proposal on Thursday that would make it one of the first layer-1 blockchains to capture maximal extractable value (MEV) at the protocol level rather than letting it flow to the small number of specialized actors who profit from transaction ordering across virtually every major chain.
MEV is the revenue that block builders extract by reordering, inserting or censoring transactions within a block. On most blockchains, this value flows to external searchers and builders who effectively impose a hidden tax on ordinary users through front-running, sandwich attacks and arbitrage.
External estimates put annual MEV revenues at tens of millions on networks like Arbitrum, upwards of $500 million on Ethereum, and as much as $1 billion on Solana. Flare’s three-stage proposal would route the revenue into the protocol’s own token economics.
In the first stage, block building moves from individual validators to a designated builder, initially run by the Flare Entity, with a fallback to the current model if the builder is unavailable. In the second, block building moves into Flare Confidential Compute, making the process publicly auditable. The third stage merges the builder and proposer into a single entity, shifting existing validators to a verification role.
The proposal also creates FIRE, the Flare Income Reinvestment Entity to collect revenue from multiple protocol sources including attestation fees, FAsset and Smart Account fees, confidential compute fees and the captured MEV. FIRE’s primary mandate is reducing FLR token supply through open-market buybacks and burns.
Several changes would take effect immediately after approval. Annual FLR inflation would drop to 3% from 5%, with the hard cap cut to 3 billion tokens per year from 5 billion. A 20-fold increase to the base gas fee, from 60 gwei to 1,200 gwei, would raise estimated annual FLR burn from roughly 7.5 million to 300 million at current transaction volumes. Even after the increase, a standard Flare transaction would cost a fraction of a cent.
Flare has deep roots in the XRP ecosystem, having distributed its initial token supply through an airdrop to XRP holders in 2023. Its FAssets system, which has produced over 150 million FXRP, is designed to bring smart contract functionality to assets on blockchains like XRPL that do not natively support it.
The network reports over $160 million in total value locked as of late March 2026, with more than 887,000 active addresses.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. The report is expected to show a jump in inflation, driven by the upsurge seen in crude Oil prices after the United States (US) and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran.
The monthly CPI is forecast to rise 0.9%, following the 0.3% increase recorded in March, while the annual reading is seen climbing to its highest level since May 2024 at 3.3%, from 2.4% in February. Core CPI figures, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are expected to come in at 0.3% and 2.7%, on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively.
Since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East on February 28, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up about 40%, even after the sharp decline seen following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran earlier this week. In March, WTI gained nearly 50%, rising from about $67 per barrel to settle near $100 by the end of the month.
Previewing the inflation data, “the recent surge in crude prices will be the main factor behind the 0.9% m/m jump in the CPI. The Y/Y rate will leap close to 1pp to 3.3% in March, a two-year-high,” said TD Securities analysts.
“Core inflation will stay shielded from the oil shock for now, rising 0.27% m/m. We look for tariff pass-through to continue playing a role by lifting goods prices. Supercore inflation likely stayed firm at 0.3%,” they added.
What to Expect in the Next CPI Data Report?
CPI figures for March will reflect the impact of high oil prices on inflation, which shouldn’t be surprising. Even if the annual CPI inflation rises 3.3% in March, as forecast, investors could see that as a temporary increase in case they remain confident that Oil prices will come down significantly, with a permanent truce in the Middle East allowing the Strait of Hormuz to remain open.
However, the growing uncertainty about the sustainability of a ceasefire and Iran’s condition to retain control of the strait in a peace agreement complicates the picture and raises doubts about a steady pullback in Oil prices. Hence, the developments in the Middle East are likely to shape inflation expectations, rather than the March CPI reading itself.
The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting showed that a number of policymakers are already pushing back the timing of potential rate cuts, reflecting lingering concerns that inflation could prove more persistent than expected.
In fact, a large majority flagged the risk that price pressures could stay elevated for longer, particularly if higher Oil prices feed through more broadly.
“Provided that underlying inflation excluding energy remains contained, the Fed can afford to look through the oil-price shock and refrain from raising rates amid a mixed US labor market backdrop,” BBH analysts said.
How Could the US Consumer Price Index Report Affect Eur/USD?
Markets currently see about a 75% chance of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year, compared to a 17% probability seen on March 9, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
A stronger-than-forecast monthly CPI print for March might not be able to influence the market pricing of the Fed’s interest-rate outlook in a significant way.
However, if a hot inflation print is combined with a re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and growing expectations about the naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz not going back to its pre-war state anytime soon, investors could reassess the probability of a Fed hike in response to persistent inflation. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) could gather strength and force EUR/USD to turn south.
Conversely, the USD could remain under bearish pressure – and allow EUR/USD to extend its rebound – in case crude Oil prices continue to come down in a steady way, regardless of the March CPI figures.
In summary, March inflation prints are unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction, while market focus remains on the US-Iran crisis and its impact on Oil prices.
Eren Sengezer, FXStreet European Session Lead Analyst, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD.
“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook points to a bullish tilt. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbed above 50 for the first time since the beginning of the US-Iran war and the pair broke above the two-month-old descending trend line.”
“The Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the February-April trend aligns as the next resistance level at 1.1730 ahead of 1.1800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.1900 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement). On the downside, the immediate support is located at 1.1650 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). In case this support fails, technical sellers could show interest, opening the door for an extended slide toward 1.1560 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1500 (static level, round level).”
The post US CPI Inflation Set to Jump in March, Putting an End to Gradual Two-Year Decline appeared first on BeInCrypto.
MiCA introduced a unified European crypto market framework with one license valid across 27 countries. Large exchanges like Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase have successfully obtained MiCA licenses for all 27 EU countries.
For smaller companies, however, MiCA is proving to be a different kind of challenge. The regulation functions as a quality filter, but interpretations differ: some argue it removes bad actors, while others contend it disproportionately affects companies without deep capital reserves.
The True Cost of Compliance
The cost breakdown reveals significant barriers to entry. Minimum licensing and compliance costs for crypto startups range from €250,000 to €500,000 for licensing alone, with additional expenses including compliance officer salaries (€80,000–€150,000 annually) and legal fees (€50,000–€200,000). Stablecoin issuers must also maintain a reserve capital of €5 million.
The impact varies considerably by company profile. Venture-backed exchanges treat these costs as manageable business expenses. Bootstrapped startups and small teams encounter substantially higher operational friction. The cumulative cost structure establishes a de facto market entry threshold that advantages capitalized players and disadvantages smaller entrants.
Holger Kuhlmann, speaking at the BeInCrypto expert council, articulated the operational pressure directly:
“A lot of companies are under pressure because they either do not have enough staff to handle the new rules properly or they need to hire more people and that quickly becomes expensive. Many companies have to make a decision between accepting more bureaucracy or taking on the cost and risk of relocation.”
This choice Kuhlmann describes is playing out across Europe. Industry data shows over 40% of crypto exchanges reported difficulty meeting MiCA’s reporting requirements specifically because of high compliance costs. At least 25% of exchanges that applied for MiCA licensing faced delays or rejections over incomplete AML documentation or other paperwork issues.
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The Bureaucracy or Relocation Choice
For many smaller firms, relocation increasingly means Vienna. Austria’s Financial Market Authority offers licensing timelines under six months, significantly faster than German timelines. For companies that cannot afford to wait or to hire additional compliance staff, moving becomes the pragmatic economic choice despite the costs of relocation.
Germany’s strict interpretation of MiCA amplifies this pressure considerably. While most EU countries kept the full 18-month transition window that MiCA allowed, Germany shortened its deadline to just 12 months. Less time to prepare means higher costs, more pressure on limited resources, and more companies reaching the conclusion that relocation is preferable to compliance within the German framework.
This pattern has real consequences. Germany’s crypto hub status, as detailed in related analysis on the crypto hub question, depends partly on retaining startup ecosystems. Yet the compliance burden is precisely what pushes those startups elsewhere.
Winners and Losers Under MiCA
The data reveals a stark divide. MiCA-compliant businesses saw a 45% increase in institutional investments compared to non-compliant platforms. Large exchanges with existing institutional relationships, capital reserves, and compliance infrastructure have used MiCA as a moat against smaller competitors.
Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase secured MiCA licenses for all 27 EU countries. For them, MiCA functions as intended: it unified the market and removed uncertainty. The regulation brought legitimacy and enabled them to deepen institutional relationships.
Chris Pliessnig, whose firm Tirox navigated the MiCA transition for multiple clients, acknowledged both sides of the impact: “It opened up the product offering, the service offering, and it brought it to a new level.” That elevation happened—but only for companies with sufficient resources to reach the new level.
The Structural Shift
Germany granted over 30 MiCA licenses, but most went to traditional banks entering crypto for the first time. The startups that once made Berlin and Frankfurt attractive crypto destinations are licensing elsewhere, often in Vienna. The effect is a hollowing out of the startup ecosystem that originally built Germany’s reputation for innovation in digital assets.
One expert observed that Germany risks losing its status as a crypto hub not because of MiCA itself, but because of how strictly it applies the rules. The regulation is uniform across the EU, but enforcement strictness is not.
The Path Forward Remains Unclear
Smaller companies must navigate three constrained options: absorb compliance costs while accepting thinner margins and slower growth, relocate to Vienna or Lisbon and forgo existing customer relationships and German market access, or exit the market entirely.
This outcome diverges substantially from MiCA’s regulatory design intent. Experts interviewed for this analysis agreed that rather than creating market unification, the regulation has produced market consolidation favoring large, well-capitalized players. The barrier to entry for smaller competitors is now substantially higher. Some experts characterize this as necessary quality control; others view it as an unintended regulatory burden. The relocation patterns, however, indicate that companies themselves have already decided.
The post Why Smaller Crypto Companies Are Struggling Under MICA appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Hong Kong granted its first two stablecoin issuer licenses to HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial, a Standard Chartered-led consortium that includes Animoca Brands on Friday.
The approvals by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the territory’s central bank, mark the first batch under the Stablecoins Ordinance, which took effect in August 2025.
“We look forward to the issuers launching business according to their plans, exploring growth opportunities while properly managing risks,” HKMA chief executive Eddie Yue said in an announcement on Friday.
“We hope their promotion of regulated stablecoins will address pain points in financial and economic activities, create values for both individuals and businesses, and support the healthy development of digital assets in Hong Kong.”
The HKMA assessed 36 applications and had signaled that the initial round would be limited. Financial Secretary Paul Chan said in his February budget address that only “a small number” would be approved, with the regulator prioritizing risk management, reserve quality, and anti-money-laundering controls.
The decision to license the city’s note-issuing banks first appears to be deliberate. HSBC and Standard Chartered are two of only three commercial banks authorized to print Hong Kong dollar banknotes, a system that dates to 1846, when private banks began issuing currency backed by silver deposits in the absence of a colonial central bank.
Today, each note-issuing bank deposits U.S. dollars with the government’s Exchange Fund at the fixed rate of HK$7.80 per dollar and receives Certificates of Indebtedness in return, against which it prints banknotes.
Yue drew the parallel in a December 2023 blog post.
Pre-1935 banknotes issued by commercial banks in exchange for deposited silver were a form of “private money,” Yue wrote, and stablecoins function as their blockchain-based equivalent — tokens with stable value that can serve as a medium of exchange on-chain.
A strict identity regime
The licenses come with one of the world’s strictest KYC frameworks for digital money.
Under the HKMA’s AML guidelines, licensed stablecoins can only be transferred to wallets whose owners have been identity-verified. The travel rule applies to transfers above HK$8,000 (~$1,000).
In practice, this means HKD stablecoins will likely embed compliance checks into their smart contracts, restricting transfers to wallets listed in an on-chain white list. That makes them structurally different from freely transferable tokens like USDT or USDC.
A HKD CBDC takes a back seat
The bank-led stablecoin model also reflects the HKMA’s decision to deprioritize its central bank digital currency for retail use, as an 11-group pilot program completed in October found the retail case was weak.
CBDCs have historically been a big theme at Hong Kong Fintech Week. Last year, there was barely a mention. Instead, stablecoins were the hot topic.
Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters said at the time Hong Kong’s push into stablecoins and tokenized deposits could “lay the foundation for a new era of digital trade settlement,” positioning them as a new medium for cross-border commerce.
Whether the market agrees remains to be seen.
Stablecoins are a roughly $310 billion asset class, and USD-denominated tokens dominate nearly all of it.
Data from CoinGecko shows that the largest stablecoins by market cap are dollar-pegged, with no euro-or yen-pegged tokens breaking into the top ranks.
Hong Kong is betting that regulated, bank-issued HKD stablecoins can carve out a role in regional trade settlement, issued by the same institutions, under the same constraints, on new rails.
The question is whether a non-dollar stablecoin, however tightly regulated, can build the network effects needed to compete.
XRP price today sits near $1.34, barely changed over 30 days, down just 2.5%. Yet a shift in who holds XRP (XRP) supply suggests the freeze may not last much longer.
On-chain data reveals the token’s least convinced holders have exited while two whale cohorts added 130 million tokens. With price compressed inside a falling channel, XRP technical analysis points to a convergence that could finally force a direction.
A Falling Channel Keeps Price Frozen Below Key Resistance
XRP price has traded inside a falling channel on the 8-hour chart since its March 17 peak near $1.60. Every attempt to escape since then has failed at the same ceiling.
The most recent rejection came on April 7 and 8. XRP reclaimed the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), trend indicators that weight recent price moves more heavily. However, the 100-period EMA rejected the advance cleanly.
That level carries weight. Around March 15, XRP reclaimed the 100 EMA and it triggered another 11% rally to the $1.60 high. The same EMA now aligns with the channel’s upper trendline, creating a double XRP resistance wall.
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BeInCrypto recently covered a similar setup in Zcash. The token broke above its own falling channel and surged higher. XRP price prediction models suggest a comparable move is possible if this resistance falls.
Yet an EMA alone does not confirm buyer conviction. The answer lies in who is accumulating and who is walking away.
Weakest Holders Walk Out as XRP Whale Accumulation Builds
Glassnode data shows that speculative money is draining from XRP. The 1-day to 1-week HODL Waves cohort tracks the share of supply held by the newest holders. It peaked at 1.45% on April 4. That reading has since collapsed to 0.684%.
More than half of this short-term supply exited in under a week. In isolation, that looks bearish. Yet these are the holders who typically sell into every bounce and kill rallies before they start. Their exit may actually be clearing the noise.
Meanwhile, XRP whale accumulation has picked up from two separate cohorts. Santiment data shows the 1 billion-plus XRP cohort grew from 25.80 billion to 25.83 billion tokens since April 6. The 10 million to 100 million cohort followed a day later, rising from 11.31 billion to 11.41 billion. Together, both groups added roughly 130 million XRP, and only after the speculative traders started selling.
However, the buying remains gradual. A Glassnode cost basis heatmap reveals roughly 420 million XRP sitting in a supply cluster directly overhead, between $1.37 and $1.38.
If that cluster’s holders begin selling into strength, whale buying alone may not crack through. The price chart reveals exactly where that wall sits.
XRP Price Levels That Decide Whether the Freeze Breaks
The 8-hour Fibonacci chart maps the convergence zone. The immediate levels are $1.35 ($1.349 to be precise) and $1.36. Reclaiming and holding both would be the first sign of life.
However, $1.38 is where the freeze lives or dies. The 100-period EMA, the channel’s upper trendline, and the 420 million XRP supply cluster all converge at that level. A clean close above $1.380 would confirm the XRP breakout. It would clear the channel, the EMA, and the supply wall simultaneously. Targets then open at $1.43, $1.51, and the March 17 high of $1.60.
Yet failure to reclaim $1.35 would keep XRP price frozen inside the channel. In that scenario, $1.32 becomes the next XRP support level at risk. A deeper breakdown exposes $1.28 ($1.279 to be exact), where buyer interest has previously held.
The 30-day freeze has compressed volatility to a breaking point. A close above $1.38 favors the whale thesis and opens a path toward $1.60. A rejection sends XRP back toward $1.28 and turns the freeze into a deeper slide.
The post XRP Price Frozen for a Month? A 130 Million Whale Move May Finally Crack It appeared first on BeInCrypto.
The CIA plans to integrate specialized artificial intelligence into its primary analytics tools to help officers track foreign spies and predict hostile actions from abroad.
Summary
- The CIA plans to embed classified generative AI assistants across its entire analytic infrastructure within two years to help officers identify foreign intelligence trends and draft reports.
- Federal officials are prioritizing these internal AI tools following a government-wide ban on Anthropic technology and an ongoing legal battle over the company’s status as a supply chain risk.
Politico reported that CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis shared these plans during a Special Competitive Studies Project event in Washington, DC, on Thursday.
He explained that within two years, these “AI co-workers” will be standard across all agency platforms to handle routine tasks.
“Within the next couple of years, we will have AI co-workers built into all of the agency’s analytic platforms — a kind of classified version of generative AI that will help our analysts with basic tasks,” Ellis said.
Security and global competition
These digital assistants are expected to help officers draft judgments and spot patterns in global intelligence, though Ellis clarified that humans will keep control over “key decisions.”
The CIA is forging its own path as the partnership between federal departments and Anthropic hits a breaking point. Following disagreements over the use of the “Claude” AI for surveillance and autonomous weaponry, President Donald Trump ordered federal agencies to stop using the company’s tech in March.
The Department of Defense has since labeled Anthropic a supply chain risk, a move the company is currently challenging in court. While Ellis did not name the firm specifically, he suggested the agency must remain independent of private sector limitations.
“We cannot allow the whims of a single company to constrain our capabilities,” he noted.
The agency is also looking at digital assets as a frontier for national security. Ellis previously mentioned in May that the CIA tracks blockchain data to assist in counterintelligence, viewing cryptocurrency as a vital part of the technological race against China.
The push for better tech is largely driven by a need to maintain an edge over Beijing. Ellis pointed out that the technological lead the U.S. once held has shrunk.
“Five to ten years ago, China was nowhere near America, in terms of technological innovation. That’s just not true today,” he said.
Key Points
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Over $428M in WLFI collateral deposited on Dolomite sparks concentration worries
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Platform secures $75M loan using WLFI, moves $40M to Coinbase
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Token value slides 5.6% in one day, continuing downward trend
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Experts flag shallow liquidity as potential catalyst for bad debt scenarios
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Team announces gradual token release plan to maintain market stability
World Liberty Financial has moved to calm market anxiety following heightened attention on its substantial WLFI collateral deployment that prompted liquidation risk discussions throughout decentralized finance communities. The organization defended its lending approach while characterizing concerns as overblown. Yet, declining WLFI valuations and heavy platform concentration maintain pressure on the project.
Massive Collateral Deposit Fuels Borrowing Operations
World Liberty Financial has positioned approximately 5 billion WLFI tokens on Dolomite to serve as loan collateral. Through this mechanism, the organization obtained close to $75 million in stablecoins, primarily USDC and USD1. The magnitude and timing of this operation attracted significant market attention.
Blockchain tracking reveals that more than $40 million subsequently moved to Coinbase Prime from the associated wallet. The transfer happened just before a significant geopolitical development involving U.S. and Iranian relations. This timing sparked speculation regarding strategic motivations and potential vulnerability linked to WLFI holdings.
Platform metrics from Dolomite demonstrate that WLFI currently comprises more than half the protocol’s aggregate supplied capital. The token represents approximately $428.9 million from a total of $825.4 million in deposited assets. Such heavy weighting creates elevated dependency on WLFI performance throughout the lending infrastructure.
Token Valuation Drops as Market Questions Liquidity Depth
WLFI experienced a 5.6% price reduction over a single day as conversations intensified across cryptocurrency channels. The asset has shed 14% of its value during the preceding week under persistent selling activity. This decline heightened apprehension regarding the security of collateralized positions.
Market observers noted that insufficient liquidity depth could obstruct orderly liquidations should WLFI valuations continue declining. Unwinding substantial holdings might prove challenging without incurring significant losses. This dynamic introduces the possibility of uncollectible debt accumulating within Dolomite’s market structure.
Researchers further identified the disconnect between elevated fully diluted valuation and limited actual market depth. Even modest WLFI price deterioration could overwhelm existing liquidation infrastructure. These fundamental vulnerabilities continue fueling the ongoing discourse surrounding WLFI concentration risk.
Platform Leadership Dismisses Concerns and Announces Release Strategy
World Liberty Financial countered liquidation warnings by characterizing them as unfounded speculation and market manipulation. Leadership asserted that adequate collateral margins protect their WLFI borrowing arrangements. The organization further indicated readiness to supplement collateral positions if circumstances warrant.
The initiative also positioned itself as a foundational borrower that enhances yield opportunities for liquidity providers. Leadership therefore presented their activities as advantageous to Dolomite’s overall market health. This stance communicates conviction in WLFI’s sustained importance within the protocol ecosystem.
Simultaneously, World Liberty revealed intentions to introduce a governance proposal addressing token distribution timelines. The forthcoming proposal will establish a staggered release framework instead of immediate full circulation. This methodology seeks to regulate supply dynamics while promoting enduring stability for WLFI markets.
Commodity-linked currencies continue to strengthen, while the US dollar remains under pressure amid easing geopolitical tensions and a shift in investor preference towards riskier assets. Reports of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran have helped stabilise sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets, supporting currencies sensitive to the global economic cycle, including the Australian and Canadian dollars.
Another factor weighing on the dollar is expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy, which remain highly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data. Lower US Treasury yields and ongoing uncertainty بشأن inflation dynamics are reinforcing cautious market positioning. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to upcoming US data releases, including inflation, consumer sentiment, and business activity indicators, which may reshape interest rate expectations.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD continues its upward move after breaking out of the 0.6840–0.6960 range. The next upside targets are the yearly highs in the 0.7160–0.7180 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the pair falls and holds below 0.7020.
Key events for AUD/USD:
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core CPI
- Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan inflation expectations
- Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan consumer sentiment
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is trending lower, continuing the move driven by Canadian dollar strength. The downside breakout reflects a shift in favour of commodity currencies, supported by both the broader macro backdrop and expectations ahead of key Canadian data, including the employment report.
Technical analysis suggests a potential decline towards the 1.3750–1.3780 range, as several reversal patterns have formed on the daily timeframe. The bearish outlook would be invalidated if the pair rises and holds above 1.3860.
Key events for USD/CAD:
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada unemployment rate
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): average hourly wages (permanent employees)
- Today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions in crude oil
The strength in commodity currencies is being driven by a combination of easing geopolitical risks, a weaker US dollar, and rising demand for risk assets. Breakouts in AUD/USD and USD/CAD reinforce the likelihood of trend continuation; however, upcoming US and Canadian data remain a key source of uncertainty. Depending on the outcome, the current momentum may either extend or shift into a phase of consolidation.
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