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AQR Founder Argues Crypto Acts Moves With Stocks, Not Gold

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TLDR

  • Cliff Asness said crypto currently trades like a risk-on asset rather than a safe haven.
  • He cited chart correlations showing Bitcoin moving in line with S&P 500 futures.
  • Asness rejected the idea that Bitcoin provides diversification during stock market declines.
  • He described Bitcoin as an imaginary asset and questioned extreme valuation claims.
  • Asness criticized the concept of Bitcoin yield promoted by Michael Saylor.

Cliff Asness rejected claims that cryptocurrencies function as digital gold or safe havens. He said recent market data shows crypto moving with equities. The AQR Capital Management founder argued that Bitcoin price trades like a risk asset.

Asness addressed market behavior and challenged claims that Bitcoin protects against equity downturns. He cited chart correlations between Bitcoin and S&P 500 futures during recent selloffs. He said the data shows crypto falling when stocks decline.

Crypto Acts Like a Risk-On Asset, Says Asness

Asness stated that crypto acts like a risk asset in current conditions. He said, “Crypto does not look like a store of value.” He added that it looks like “risk on” during recent trading sessions.

He pointed to chart correlations between Bitcoin and S&P 500 futures. He said both assets moved in the same direction during market stress. Therefore, he rejected the claim that Bitcoin offers diversification benefits.

He explained that crypto has not behaved like gold during volatility. He said the data shows joint declines during equity pullbacks. He maintained that current patterns contradict the haven narrative.

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Asness also dismissed claims that Bitcoin drives broader equity markets. He described Bitcoin as another volatile asset class. He said maximalist arguments overstate its market influence.

Asness Targets Bitcoin Yield and MicroStrategy Premium

Asness criticized the concept of “Bitcoin yield” promoted by Michael Saylor. He argued that the metric does not represent actual yield or total return. He said the term misleads investors about performance.

He mocked the phrase in blunt terms. He said, “Every time someone says Bitcoin yield, an angel gets their wings violently ripped off.” He used the remark to underline his rejection of the metric.

Asness directed sharper criticism at MicroStrategy’s corporate strategy. He said the company trades at a large premium to its Bitcoin holdings. He described the structure as similar to a 2x net asset value closed-end fund.

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He argued that this pricing reflects weak market efficiency. He called the structure “moronic” in public comments. He maintained that the premium lacks fundamental justification.

Asness reiterated that he views Bitcoin as an “imaginary asset.” He questioned how a digital currency could equal the value of global assets. He rejected projections that place Bitcoin at aggregate world asset levels.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Hold? Or A Drop Is Inevitable?

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Bitcoin price prediction as BTC faces another rejection. Analyzing key support levels and what to expect next.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is struggling to maintain footing above $68,000 today, down 1% as the prediction of selling pressure mounts following a rigid rejection at the $76,000 ceiling a week ago. The market leader is currently navigating a perilous consolidation phase analysts call a “No-Trade Zone,” where conflicting signals between derivatives data and spot buying are creating high volatility.

The rejection at higher levels coincides with a distinct shift in institutional sentiment, evidenced by ETF flows showing signs of reversal amid broader geopolitical uncertainty.

On-chain data from Santiment reveals that large wallet holders, specifically those with significant BTC balances, trimmed positions on the 22nd, dropping collective holdings from 1.15 million to 1.14 million BTC. This distribution suggests that without a decisive catalyst, the path of least resistance remains sideways to down.

Bitcoin price prediction as BTC faces another rejection. Analyzing key support levels and what to expect next.
BTC ETFs flows, Coinglass

Can BTC Hold the $65,000 Support Level Amid Bear Flag Fears?

Bitcoin price technical structure on the 1-day chart presents a precarious setup for bullish prediction. Trading just above $68,000, BTC is oscillating within a narrowing range defined by fading buyer strength.

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The immediate concern is the massive volume node between the $70,700 and $63,500 area, where approximately 1.72 million BTC have been transacted. This range acts as a critical battleground; a loss of the lower bound could trigger a cascading liquidation event.

Technically, the formation of a bear flag following the recent 39% flagpole decline raises the risk of a deeper capitulation. If sellers force a daily close below the $63,700 trigger level, Fibonacci extension targets suggest downside exposure toward $57,000 and potentially $52,700.

Bitcoin price prediction as BTC faces another rejection. Analyzing key support levels and what to expect next.
Bitcoin USD, TradingView

Conversely, momentum indicators like the RSI are flattening, hinting at a potential hidden divergence that typically precedes a reversal, but confirmation is absent. (Where are the bulls waiting? Likely at the 200-day SMA near $93k or lower trendline support.

For the bullish case to regain validity, price action must decisively reclaim the $71,000 mid-range resistance. Until then, the divergence between stabilizing smaller wallets (1k-10k BTC) and profit-taking mega-whales paints a picture of a market in conflict, often resulting in extended consolidation before the next major impulse.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction Is Down, But Investors Rotate to Infrastructure as Hyper Targets SVM Scalability

While spot Bitcoin struggles with overhead resistance, smart money creates a noticeable trend of capital rotation into high-beta infrastructure plays. Investors often hedge against mainnet chop by allocating to Layer 2 protocols that promise to solve Bitcoin’s velocity constraints. Leading this surge is Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 to integrate the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM).

The project has defied the broader market pullback, amassing an impressive $32 Million in its ongoing presale. Bitcoin Hyper aims to deliver sub-second finality and high-speed smart contracts directly to the Bitcoin ecosystem, effectively bridging the gap between Bitcoin’s security and Solana’s speed. Current data prices $HYPER at $0.0136 with 36% APY on staking rewards.

This massive fundraising milestone indicates that investors are rotating toward infrastructure capable of unlocking trillions in dormant BTC capital. By utilizing a Decentralized Canonical Bridge, Bitcoin Hyper allows seamless asset transfers, addressing the critical lack of programmability on the main chain. While emerging Layer 2s carry inherent execution risks, the sheer volume of capital raised suggests the market views SVM integration as a necessary evolution for Bitcoin.

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Those looking to position themselves before next-generation L2s go live can research Bitcoin Hyper here.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Hold? Or A Drop Is Inevitable? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Institutional Strategy Targets $44.1B to Accelerate Bitcoin Buying

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Crypto Breaking News

Strategy, the Bitcoin-focused vehicle led by Michael Saylor, is intensifying its capital-raising efforts to fund ongoing BTC purchases. In a recent 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company disclosed plans to raise as much as $44.1 billion through a mix of equity and perpetual preferred stock offerings, backed by new at-the-market programs. The financing plan comprises up to $21 billion from selling Strategy (MSTR) common stock, up to $21 billion from the perpetual preferred stock Stretch (STRC), and up to $2.1 billion from its perpetual preferred stock STRK. The filings indicate the issuances will occur “from time to time,” with no fixed timetable.

The filings also show that Strategy is marketing these securities as a way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, which remains far from its all-time high and has weighed on the company’s balance sheet. In addition to the equity moves, the firm’s ATM program is intended to facilitate incremental share sales into the open market rather than relying solely on large, one-off financings. The 8-K underscores that the new financing channels are designed to expand the company’s Bitcoin holdings while limiting dilution of Strategy’s common stock through a diversified set of instruments.

Key takeaways

  • Strategy aims to raise up to $44.1 billion for Bitcoin purchases: up to $21 billion via MSTR common stock, up to $21 billion via STRC perpetual preferred stock, and up to $2.1 billion via STRK perpetual preferred stock, with issuances occurring on a flexible basis.
  • Stretch (STRC) and STRK are described as perpetual preferred stocks that provide monthly dividends while enabling Strategy to grow its BTC treasury without issuing additional MSTR common shares.
  • The company’s updated plan follows an at-the-market (ATM) framework, allowing ongoing, incremental capital raises rather than relying solely on large external offerings.
  • Strategy has added 90,000 BTC to its treasury in the first quarter of 2026, bringing total holdings to 762,099 BTC valued at about $54 billion, with an unrealized loss on BTC holdings of 6.3%.
  • Bitcoin’s price backdrop remains a core driver of Strategy’s strategy, with BTC down roughly 70% from its all-time high; the financing moves reflect an appetite to scale exposure through securities markets even as the price trades below peaks.

Financing Bitcoin: The anatomy of Strategy’s capital-raising plan

According to the 8-K filing, Strategy intends to raise up to $21 billion by selling additional shares of its common stock (MSTR). Simultaneously, the company plans to raise up to another $21 billion through the sale of two perpetual preferred stock structures, Stretch (STRC) and Strike (STRK), via new at-the-market programs. The filing notes that STRC and STRK are designed to provide investors with exposure to Bitcoin while offering the potential for monthly dividends, a feature that can appeal to income-focused investors seeking indirect BTC participation.

Notably, the company did not commit to a fixed issuance timetable. Instead, it stated that shares may be sold “from time to time,” signaling ongoing flexibility in how it taps the capital markets to finance its Bitcoin accumulation program. The arrangement stands in contrast to earlier financing approaches that relied more heavily on convertible debt or larger, discrete fund-raisings rather than continuous, market-based issuances.

In parallel with the equity-raising plan, Strategy continues to position its securities as accessible pathways for investors to gain Bitcoin exposure, a strategy that aligns with Michael Saylor’s long-standing thesis of using corporate finance mechanisms to expand cryptocurrency holdings rather than diluting existing equity through a single, massive equity raise.

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A growing treasury: Bitcoin purchases and holdings in 2026

Strategy has been actively deploying capital to expand its Bitcoin base in 2026. In its latest filing notes, the company disclosed that it bought 1,031 BTC for approximately $76.6 million in a near-term purchase. This follows a broader set of acquisitions this month that included 17,994 BTC on March 9 and 22,337 BTC on March 16, bringing cumulative purchases in the quarter to roughly 90,000 BTC. The company described these movements as a “larger-than-usual” pace of accumulation in March, contributing to a year-to-date total that has significantly boosted the treasury’s BTC position.

Overall, Strategy now holds 762,099 BTC, with a reported market value around $54 billion. This tally places Bitcoin holdings at the center of Strategy’s balance sheet strategy, as the firm continues to fund expansion via an array of equity-like instruments rather than relying solely on common stock issuances.

However, the turnaround comes with risk markers. The firm reported an unrealized loss of 6.3% on its BTC holdings, underscoring the sensitivity of this strategy to price movements in Bitcoin. The BTC backdrop has been challenging, with the asset down substantially from its all-time highs, which further amplifies the potential impact of ongoing purchase activity on Strategy’s reported gains or losses in any given reporting period.

Market and investor implications

Strategy’s approach illustrates a broader trend among large acquirers seeking to scale Bitcoin exposure through diversified financing channels. By layering up through MSTR common stock and perpetual preferred securities, the company creates multiple conduits for raising capital while attempting to avoid repeatedly diluting current shareholders. For investors, the appeal lies in the potential for BTC exposure embedded in STRC and STRK, paired with the income stream from monthly dividends inherent to perpetual preferred structures.

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From a market perspective, the continued utilization of ATM programs and perpetual preferred issuances could influence how investors view corporate risk and Bitcoin correlates. If the financing proves effective in growing the Bitcoin treasury without triggering large one-off equity dilutions, Strategy may set a precedent for other corporates seeking to monetize crypto holdings through structured finance instruments. Yet the strategy also hinges on BTC price dynamics: sustained declines can widen unrealized losses and pressure returns, even as the company’s Bitcoin balance expands.

Regulatory and accounting considerations will also matter over time. As Strategy scales its use of perpetual preferred stock and ATM sales, investors will want clarity on cost of capital, dividend coverage, and any potential impacts on equity or credit metrics. The company’s 8-K filings provide the baseline disclosures, but the evolution of these instruments in a volatile crypto backdrop will likely attract ongoing scrutiny from investors and analysts alike.

For readers tracking this narrative, the next developments to watch include any new ATM drawdowns, the timing and scale of STRC and STRK issuances, and the trajectory of Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases as market prices and macro conditions shift. The intersection of traditional markets and crypto balance sheets remains a dynamic space, and Strategy’s multi-pronged funding approach offers a clear case study in how corporate treasury strategies are adapting to the Bitcoin era.

As Strategy presses forward with its capital-raising plan and treasury expansion, market watchers will be keen to see how the balance between funding costs, Bitcoin price movements, and the cash-flow characteristics of its perpetual preferred securities plays out in the months ahead.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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MicroStrategy’s $22 Billion Plan to Accumulate 1 Million Bitcoin

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MicroStrategy’s $22 Billion Plan to Accumulate 1 Million Bitcoin

MicroStrategy is targeting 1 million Bitcoin by end of 2026. The firm currently holds 628,900 BTC valued at nearly $76 billion, roughly 3% of total supply, and needs approximately 371,100 more to hit the mark.

Getting there requires raising $22 billion in fresh capital over the next two years. That translates to a sustained purchase pace of approximately 6,158 BTC per week at current prices.

This is not a retail accumulation story. This is the most aggressive corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy ever attempted.

Key Takeaways
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  • Capital Requirement: MicroStrategy needs to raise approximately $22 billion to close the gap between its current 628,900 BTC and its 1 million BTC target.
  • Purchase Pace: Hitting the target by end of 2026 demands buying roughly 6,158 BTC per week — equivalent to around $523 million at current market prices.
  • Treasury Mechanics: The strategy runs on Michael Saylor’s ’21/21 Plan’ — $21 billion via equity issuance and $21 billion via fixed-income instruments over a three-year window.

How MicroStrategy Plans to Fund 6,000+ BTC Per Week

The plan is simple. Raise $42 billion, buy Bitcoin, repeat.

Saylor’s 21/21 Plan splits that evenly. $21 billion through equity. $21 billion through convertible notes and fixed-income instruments. The firm has been executing against this since late 2024, when it acquired a record 234,509 BTC in a single year, nearly 60% of total holdings at the time.

The average cost basis sits at $49,874 per BTC. But recent tranches are coming in around $88,000, meaning new capital is being deployed at nearly double the portfolio average.

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The whole machine runs on one thing: the MSTR share premium over net asset value. As long as shares trade above the underlying Bitcoin holdings, the firm can issue equity, collect more dollars per BTC than market price implies, and buy more Bitcoin. Saylor tracks this through a metric called Bitcoin Yield. It came in at 20.4% last quarter.

The buying has been relentless. 855 BTC on February 2. 1,142 BTC on February 9. 2,486 BTC on February 17. 100 BTC on February 23. Every week, more Bitcoin.

Bitcoin hit $122,000 in July 2025. What critics called reckless leverage, analysts now call calculated institutional allocation.

But the vulnerability is obvious. The NAV premium is the engine. If MSTR shares lose that premium or trade at a discount, the equity issuance machine breaks. The accretive loop reverses. That risk grows in a sustained bear cycle while the debt load stays fixed.

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Saylor called Bitcoin a fad in 2013. By 2020 he was all in. By 2026 he either holds 1 million BTC or this becomes the most expensive corporate recalibration in history.

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Bitcoin Traders See New Lows Coming as Gold Enters Bear Market

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Bitcoin Traders See New Lows Coming as Gold Enters Bear Market

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week facing fresh macro risks as gold plummets and traders wait for $50,000.

  • BTC price action ends the week below a key trend line, and traders see little more than an early-week bounce for bulls.

  • Price looks more and more like it is repeating January’s bear flag — and targets now call for new multiyear lows.

  • Gold enters a technical bear market and oil returns to $100 as Iran tensions continue.

  • Traders start to consider Fed rate hikes in 2026, but history could still offer risk assets some relief.

  • Bitcoin’s long-term holders have been selling at a loss throughout March.

Bitcoin weekly close loses 200-week trend line

After a rough weekend, Bitcoin struggled to reclaim support as TradFi traders returned to start the week.

Data from TradingView shows price dipping to near $67,400 into the weekly close, which lost control of the key 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) trend line.

Analysis previously saw a close above the 200-week EMA, currently at $68,300, as key to protecting bulls going forward.

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BTC/USD one-hour chart with 200-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In his latest X analysis on BTC price action released on Sunday, trader CrypNuevo forecast that the market would continue to hinge on geopolitics.

“It feels like we’ll be stuck in this range for the next month too,” he summarized.

“We could see some conflict escalation (uncertainty) next week that could trigger a new visit to the range lows where an interesting 4h long wick still sits there.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

CrypNuevo referred to Bitcoin’s sub-$60,000 swing low seen in early February.

“In LTF, I’ll be favoring a potential price rotation to $65k next week,” he continued about low time frames. 

“I’d like to position for this around $70k if we see a short-lived push to the upside at the start of the week. But with caution, because acceptance above $71k would invalidate it and I’d long to $73k-$74k.”

Crypto liquidation history (screeshot). Source: CoinGlass

Liquidations stayed high into Monday, with over $400 million erased over 24 hours, per data from CoinGlass.

With liquidity stacked above price, trader Castillo Trading eyed a potential short squeeze to take it.

Commenting on the latest price moves, meanwhile, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant hinted that the weekend’s downside volatility was nothing out of the ordinary.

“During weekends, institutional participation declines significantly, and spot-driven demand—especially from ETF flows—effectively pauses. As a result, the market becomes more dependent on derivatives positioning and short-term liquidity conditions,” contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post. 

“Lower liquidity also amplifies price sensitivity. With thinner order books, relatively small sell orders can trigger larger price movements, often leading to cascading effects such as stop-loss activation or liquidation events.”

BTC Sunday price action (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

XWIN stressed that weekend price action “should not be interpreted as a signal of trend continuation or reversal.”

Traders eye January bear flag breakdown repeat

For Bitcoin bulls, history risks repeating itself already this week — and just like before, bears appear to be in the driving seat.

Concerns revolve around another bear flag pattern currently playing out on the daily chart.

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Here, a macro downtrend is punctuated by a period of relief, giving some the impression that the trend has reversed. Price then drops through the bottom of the flag and the downtrend continues to new lows.

As Cointelegraph reported, traders have long warned about a second bear flag and its consequences after the first completed in January.

“It looks almost exactly the same. Bear Flag Breakdown & Retest with low volume on the upward move,” trader Roman told X followers last week after BTC/USD hit six-week highs of $76,000.

After the weekend, trader Jelle went further, suggesting that price had already broken support.

“Not a great way to start the week if you’re a bull. Consolidate here for a day or two and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking,” he warned.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X

On Saturday, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the bear-flag breakdown target could be below $50,000.

Gold hits bear market on Iran oil woes

The worsening global energy crisis focused on the Middle East is already taking a fresh toll on risk assets and safe havens this week.

Asian stock markets tumbled during their first session, while gold and silver also came under heavy selling pressure. Bitcoin joined them, hitting two-week lows into Sunday’s weekly close. 

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter even suggested that the downside in gold could have claimed a large-volume market participant.

“The sporadic moves in price could signal that a potential large player in the space is being liquidated,” it told X followers.

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Kobeissi added that rising US 10-year treasury note yields were “beginning to weigh on various asset classes.”

“Combine this with headline fatigue and ‘pockets’ of illiquidity in the market, and the massive gaps to both directions are only growing,” it added. 

“Something big is happening metals markets right now.”

XAU/USD one-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Now down over 20% since its all-time high, XAU/USD officially entered bear-market territory, hitting local lows of $4,099 per ounce — a level not seen since November 2025.

Oil, meanwhile, increasingly sought to stay above the $100 mark as uncertainty over flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed the potential impact on future US inflation readings.

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“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more. And even before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, there are growing signs that inflation is already inflecting higher,” it noted.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Risk-asset hope remains despite hawkish Fed

This week has little by way of key inflation reports, with jobless claims and S&P Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data taking center stage.

Crypto has shown sensitivity to PMI releases in recent months, with US manufacturing finally on the up after several years of retraction.

At the same time, headwinds from the Iran war are mounting, as shown by the hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve at last week’s meeting.

After leaving interest rates unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell said that any loosening of policy would now depend on “progress” being made on inflation. 

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“As a result, the market is quickly repricing the outlook for rate cuts,” Mosaic Asset Company commented. 

“While market-implied odds don’t point to another rate cut for over a year, another key indicator is suggesting that rate hikes could be in store.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

The conservative stance came despite weakening US labor-market conditions — traditionally cause to reassess restrictive policy measures.

A silver lining, however, could lie in store for risk assets in the form of historical patterns repeating. As Cointelegraph reported, crypto’s positive stocks correlation has recently grown.

“Conditions across breadth and sentiment are evolving to support a rally in the S&P 500. At the same time, historic precedent for market movements around major geopolitical events also hint that a rebound could be in store for the stock market,” Mosaic continued.

Kobeissi had similar ideas, reporting “skyrocketing” trading activity across stocks and last week’s giant options expiry event freeing up capital.

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“Friday’s volume was also amplified by ~$5.7 trillion in options tied to US stocks, indexes, and ETFs expiring in the largest March triple-witching in at least 30 years,” it wrote on X. 

“The massive volume of expired options has released billions in capital, which could drive significant market swings this week. Brace for more market volatility.”

S&P 500 ETF chart with volume data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bitcoin old hands sell at a loss

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are feeling the pressure at current levels — even without a rematch with range lows.

Related: Bitcoin RSI signals potential bottom as analysts flag key setup

CryptoQuant research reveals “capitulation” signals from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures whether coins moving onchain are doing so at a higher or lower price than during their previous transaction.

SOPR readings below 1 mean that the observed supply — in this case that owned by LTHs — is on aggregate moving at a loss.

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“On March 11, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.64, meaning long-term holders were selling their coins at a 36% loss relative to their cost basis. This is one of the most extreme LTH capitulation readings in recent months,” contributor The Enigma Trader commented. 

“A value this far below 1.0 indicates that even patient, conviction holders were being shaken out, a sign of genuine fear in the market.”

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant

The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR is still below 1 — even as large tranches of BTC leave exchanges in a potential emerging accumulation trend.

“One possible interpretation: while long-term holders were capitulating between March 10–20, a separate cohort was quietly absorbing supply and moving coins off exchanges,” it continued. 

“Distribution and accumulation happening simultaneously, a classic phase transition setup.”