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Arthur Hayes Explains How US-Iran Conflict Could Boost Bitcoin

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Arthur Hayes Explains How US-Iran Conflict Could Boost Bitcoin


Arthur Hayes argues that Middle East wars often trigger Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting Bitcoin over time.

In a March 1 essay, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that the U.S. military escalation in Iran fits a four-decade pattern of American intervention in the Middle East that ultimately leads to Federal Reserve easing.

According to Hayes, the longer the U.S. engages in this conflict, the higher the likelihood the Fed cuts rates or prints money to finance the war effort, a move he believes will drive the price of Bitcoin (BTC) higher.

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Hayes Draws a Line From Gulf Wars to Fed Rate Cuts

In his analysis, Hayes pointed to the 1990 Gulf War, where FOMC minutes from August of that year noted that “events in the Middle East had greatly complicated the formulation of an effective monetary policy,” leading to rate cuts later that year.

He also cited the Federal Reserve’s emergency meeting after the September 11, 2001, attacks, where then-Chair Alan Greenspan cut rates by 50 basis points, explicitly pointing to a “heightened degree of fear and uncertainty” impacting asset prices.

The crypto market has already reacted to the unfolding geopolitical news, showcasing its role as the only financial market open during the weekend turmoil. Bitcoin, the most prominent asset in the sector, initially plummeted from $66,000 to around $63,600 within minutes of the first reports of strikes on February 28.

However, the asset just as quickly reversed course, jumping to $67,000 later that evening following reports of the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at around $66,800, slipping by less than 1% on the day and up 2.8% over the past week, although it remains down more than 20% across the last month.

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Hayes Advises Waiting for the Fed Before Buying

While the immediate market reaction has been chaotic, Hayes is urging investors to look past the initial volatility and focus on the anticipated policy response. He noted that every U.S. president since 1985 has engaged militarily in the Middle East, and the financial fallout has consistently been managed with cheaper money.

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For the former BitMEX CEO, the “simple heuristic” for Bitcoin’s rise or fall is that the cost of “nation-building” invariably leads to monetary easing.

“The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism,” he wrote.

Considering that Bitcoin has just suffered through its fifth consecutive month of losses, a streak not seen since 2018, with the asset shedding nearly 15% in February, Hayes has provided a specific trading tactic for the current environment. Given the uncertainty over how long the U.S. will remain engaged and how much financial market pain it can tolerate, he advises a patient approach.

“The prudent action is to wait and see,” said the crypto trader.

He also suggests that the optimal time to “back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins” is not during the initial conflict but immediately after the Fed actually cuts rates or resumes money printing to support the government’s objectives in Iran.

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Aave V4 passes ARFC stage, moves toward mainnet launch: Aave

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Aave V4 passes ARFC stage, moves toward mainnet launch: Aave

Aave V4 has successfully completed the Aave Request for Comments stage, with the protocol’s team now preparing for final AIP deployment and mainnet launch.

Aave V4 has passed the ARFC (Aave Request for Comments) stage, according to an announcement from Aave founder Stani Kulechov on March 23. The protocol is now moving toward final AIP (Aave Improvement Proposal) deployment and a controlled mainnet launch with a focus on security, Kulechov said.

The ARFC stage represents a preliminary governance phase where protocol proposals are discussed before formal on-chain voting. Aave’s development team has been working to bring V4 to mainnet, with the next steps involving final AIP deployment followed by the launch itself.

Sources: Stani Kulechov (X/Twitter)

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This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.

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DeFi Has Seen Resolv’s $25M USR Exploit Many Times Before

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The Resolv hack wasn’t a surprise. The same structural flaw has drained hundreds of millions from Morpho, Euler, and Fluid over the past year and the industry kept building on top of it anyway.

On a quiet Sunday morning, someone turned $100,000 into $25 million in about seventeen minutes.

The target was Resolv, a yield-bearing stablecoin protocol. By the time Resolv paused its contracts, its dollar-pegged stablecoin USR had crashed to pennies. It remains deeply depegged, trading around $0.25 as of this writing, down more than 70% on the week.

The blast radius extended well beyond Resolv. Fluid/Instadapp absorbed more than $10 million in bad debt and had outflows of over $300 million in a single day, the worst outflow in its history. Fifteen Morpho vaults were hit. Euler, Venus, Lista DAO, and Inverse Finance all moved to pause USR-related markets.

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The mechanism that caused the initial hack to spread its damage – pricing a depegged stablecoin at $1 in a lending market– is not new. It happened at least four times in the past fourteen months.

How the Hack Worked

USR’s minting followed a two-step off-chain process: a user deposited USDC via the `requestSwap’ function, and a privileged off-chain signing key, the `SERVICE_ROLE’, finalized the amount of USR to issue via `completeSwap’. The contract enforced a minimum output but had no maximum. Whatever the key holder signed, the contract honored.

The attacker gained access to that key through Resolv’s AWS Key Management Service. They submitted two USDC deposits, totaling roughly $100,000–$200,000, and used the compromised key to authorize 80 million USR in return. Etherscan shows two transactions worth 50 million USR and 30 million USR, minted in minutes.

“The Resolv USR exploit wasn’t a bug — it was a feature working exactly as designed. And that’s the problem,” said on-chain analyst Vadim (@zacodil).

The SERVICE_ROLE was a regular externally owned address, not a multisig. The admin key had multisig protection, but the mint key didn’t.

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“Resolv was audited 18 times,” Vadim said. “One finding was literally called ‘Missing upper [limit]’”

The attacker exited methodically, converting minted USR into wstUSR (the staked wrapped version) to slow the market impact, then rotating through Curve, Uniswap, and KyberSwap into ETH. The attacker’s wallet holds approximately 11,400 ETH (~$24M). Resolv’s collateral pool, the ETH and BTC backing the system, survived intact even as the stablecoin crashed.

How the Contagion Spread

The Resolv hack is two incidents stacked on top of each other. The first is the mint exploit. The second is a cascading lending market failure.

When USR and wstUSR collapsed, every lending market that had accepted them as collateral faced the same problem: their oracle was still pricing wstUSR near $1.

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Omer Goldberg, founder of risk analytics firm Chaos Labs, documented the mechanism. His key finding was that “The oracle is hardcoded and thus never repriced. wstUSR was marked at $1.13 while trading at ~$0.63 on secondary markets.”

Traders bought cheap wstUSR on the open market and posted it as collateral at the oracle’s $1.13 valuation on Morpho or Fluid, then borrowed USDC against it and walked away.

At Fluid, the team secured short-term loans to cover 100% of the bad debt and committed to making every user whole. At Morpho, co-founder Paul Frambot said ~15 vaults had significant exposure, all in high-risk, long-tail collateral strategies.

Prominent curator Gauntlet said that “A few high-yield vaults had limited exposure.”

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But D2 Finance challenged that framing directly, posting onchain data showing Gauntlet’s flagship “USDC Core vault” had $4.95M allocated to the wstUSR/USDC market. Goldberg later said Gauntlet vaults accounted for 98% of lender liquidity in that market.

“I think the curator industry is poorly designed because there’s not actual curation happening,” said Marc Zeller on X.

Resolv, Gauntlet, Morpho and Fluid did not respond to The Defiant’s requests for comments by press time.

A Recurring Failure

This is not a novel attack. In January 2025, Usual Protocol’s USD0++ was hardcoded at $1 on Morpho vaults by curator MEV Capital. Usual abruptly changed its redemption floor to $0.87 without warning, leaving lenders stuck in the MEV Caital vault as utilization spiked to 100%.

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In November 2025, Stream Finance’s xUSD collapsed after curators had routed USDC deposits into leverage loops backed by the synthetic stablecoin, leaving an estimated $285M–$700M at risk across Morpho, Euler, and Silo when its oracle refused to update. Moonwell suffered back-to-back oracle failures in October and November 2025, generating more than $5 million in combined bad debt.

What It Means for the Curator Model

Morpho’s architecture outsources all risk decisions to third-party “curators” who build vaults, choose collateral, set loan-to-value ratios, and select oracles. The theory is that specialist firms have deeper expertise, competition drives better risk management, and the protocol enforces rules.

But curators earn fees on yield generated, which creates an incentive to accept riskier, higher-yield collateral, like yield-bearing stablecoins. The downside is that when those stablecoins depeg, the losses fall on depositors, not on the curator. In the Resolv case, some curators had automated bots still refilling affected vaults hours after the exploit started, deepening losses.

The reason to hardcode oracles for yield-bearing stablecoins is to prevent short-term volatility from triggering unnecessary liquidations. But that protection only works as long as the stablecoin remains stable.

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Chainalysis said in a post-mortem that real-time chain detection is needed.

“The on-chain smart contract worked perfectly. The broader system design and off-chain infrastructure apparently did not,” the analytics firm said.

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Bitcoin Spot Volumes Drop To 2023 Lows as Rallies Lack Spot Conviction

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Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) spot volumes on Binance have dropped to their lowest level since September 2023, indicating that the current intraday price rise may not be backed by strong demand.

The rally above $71,700 on Monday appears to be driven mainly by news headlines and liquidations in the Bitcoin futures markets.

Binance volumes and exchange flows signal the demand gap for BTC

Crypto analyst Darkfost said that March is on track to record the lowest Binance spot volume since Q3 2023, at roughly $52 billion, compared to the $88 billion recorded in September 2023. The activity levels align with the prior bear market conditions, pointing to the reduced participation.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC spot trading volume. Source: CryptoQuant

The exchange flow data shows a similar slowdown. Crypto analyst Arab Chain reported $6.38 billion in seven-day cumulative flows on Binance and $5.14 billion on Coinbase. The Binance flows have dropped to the lowest level since 2024, indicating reduced deposit activity.

However, the lower inflows may also coincide with a reduced supply to sell, as fewer coins move onto the exchanges. The Coinbase flows remain relatively stable, reflecting the steadier participation from the long-term investors.

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The large-holder activity added another layer. Market analyst Gaah identified a record surge in the whale inflow momentum, which tracks the rate of change in large transfers to the exchanges.

The current reading of 74.3 surpasses all prior cycle peaks over the past 11 years, with a higher level last recorded at 124.6 in 2015. 

The elevated inflow velocity signals an aggressive capital rotation and hedging, increasing BTC’s sensitivity to short-term volatility over the next few weeks.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin momentum whale inflow ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin rebounds to $71K as oil drops after Trump signals pause on Iran strikes

Bitcoin liquidation activity shows traders lack conviction

The BTC rally followed reports that President Trump had deferred the planned US strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days after citing progress in the diplomatic discussions, a claim later rejected by Iran’s foreign ministry, which denied that any talks had taken place.

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BTC still pushed to a weekly high of $71,789 on Binance during the US market session, driven by the above external catalyst rather than by spot demand or futures positioning, leading the move.

Data shows the rally coincided with a reduction in leverage. The aggregated open interest declined by about 9,700 BTC, marking a 4% drop over 13 hours.

The open interest tracks the total number of active futures contracts, and the decline during a price increase signals that the positions were being closed rather than new ones being opened.

BTC/USDT price, aggregated open interest, liquidation, and Coinbase premium. Source: velo.data

This type of move typically occurs when short positions are forced out of the market, reducing the total exposure while pushing the price higher. Binance recorded over $44 million in short liquidations within one hour, the largest since the one-hour long liquidations of $53 million on Feb. 6.

The Coinbase premium (in percentage terms) remained negative during the move, indicating limited spot demand from US participants.

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The falling open interest, high liquidations, and weak premiums suggest the move higher was driven by positions being closed rather than new money entering the market, with most of the activity clustered around the $71,000–$72,000 range.

Related: Gold slides as traders eye sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week