Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Battered BTC price could find solace in ‘debasement’ trade: Crypto Daybook Americas

Published

on

CD20, March 2 2026 (CoinDesk)

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The conflict between U.S., Israel and Iran remains the day’s biggest story as the attacks intensify and spread.

Markets reacted as they typically do: by de-risking and sending oil prices higher. Bitcoin dropped to $66,300, down 0.5% over 24 hours, having hit a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell over 2%, signaling broader losses in the crypto market and futures tied to the S&P 500 index lost 1%.

Looking past the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen the “debasement trade,” a strategy in which investors rotate into scarce-supply assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a decline in the value of fiat (paper) currencies.

Advertisement

Governments in the U.S. and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in economic growth. Their finances will only worsen the longer the war drags on. In such situations, governments don’t collect enough in taxes. Instead, they force central banks to “print money” through bond purchases or quantitive easing (QE) to monetize debt. This floods fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello debasement.

Traders front-run that process by loading up on store-of-value assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been on a tear for over a year mainly on debasement flows. BTC did not participate back then. But now, having nearly halved to under $67,000 since October, it looks oversold. The possibility of the debasement trade catalyzing a bounce in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out.

Besides, historically the Fed turns dovish with liquidity easing during geopolitical stress, supporting asset prices, as Maelstrom Fund’s CIO Arthur Hayes noted in his blog post.

Let’s see how things unfold. In the meantime traders need to watch headline risks and oil upswings. Stay alert!

Advertisement

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Crypto
    • March 2: SuperRare to release Delirium, a new collection by artist Xer0x
    • March 2: Mantra’s OM to change to MANTRA with a 1:4 coin split as the MANTRA Chain upgrades from v6 to v7.
  • Macro
    • March 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for February est. 52.3 (Prev. 52.6)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.32
    • March 2: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • PoolTogether DAO is voting to manually resubmit and execute the remaining actions for the PTBR-35 Governance Shutdown after a previous execution error. Voting ends March 2.
    • Angle DAO is voting to orderly wind down the EURA and USDA stablecoins, providing users a one-year 1:1 redemption period followed by a final settlement airdrop. Voting ends March 2.
    • GMX DAO is voting to transition to a defined leadership model by hiring a CEO with performance-tied compensation and forming an interim leadership committee to guide the restructuring. Voting ends March 2.
  • Unlocks
  • Token Launches
    • March 2: Dovu (DOVU) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.98% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $66,194.78 (24hrs: -0.35%)
  • ETH is up 1.48% at $1,950.67 (24hrs: -1.63%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% at 1,916.46 (24hrs: -1.11%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp at 2.85%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0011% (-1.2147% annualized) on Binance
CD20, March 2 2026 (CoinDesk)
  • DXY is up 0.64% at 98.23
  • Gold futures are up 3.03% at $5,406.80
  • Silver futures are up 2.64% at $95.75
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 58,057.24
  • Hang Seng closed down 2.14% at 26,059.85
  • FTSE is down 0.78% at 10,825.36
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.89% at 6,022.64
  • DJIA closed on Friday down 1.05% at 48,977.92
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 22,668.21
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.47% at 34,339.99
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bps at 3.966%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.04% at 6,817.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.42% at 24,650.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.11% at 48,458.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.63% (0.22%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.18%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $29.01
  • Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $169,782
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 109,280 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 12.2 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.42%

Technical Analysis

Ether's daily chart in candlestick format. (TradingView0
Ether’s daily chart. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows ether’s daily price swings with Bollinger bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of the price.
  • The gap between the bands has shrunk to $226, the narrowest since June 2025.
  • Volatility typically booms when bands narrow, which means the token could soon see big price moves in either direction.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $175.85 (-2.88%), -2.42% at $171.60 in pre-market
  • Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.44 (-4.32%), -3.46% at $80.55
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.59 (-6.15%), -2.19% at $20.14
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.39 (-4.09%), -3.73% at $30.22
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.94 (+5.80%), -1.23% at $8.83
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.29 (-4.68%), -2.70% at $15.85
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (-5.62%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-4.69%), -2.01% at $9.75
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.88 (-5.43%), -3.61% at $38.44
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.20 (-2.39%), -2.25% at $9.97

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.50 (-2.92%), -0.39% at $129.00
  • Strive (ASST): closed at $7.94 (-3.05%), -2.39% at $7.75
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.82 (-5.41%), +0.44% at $6.85
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.66 (-12.88%)
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (-0.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$27.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.78 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$43 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.63 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

SEC’s crypto interpretation heads to White House for policy scrutiny

Published

on

Crypto Breaking News

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is advancing its framework to reinterpret how federal securities laws apply to crypto assets, moving two proposed rules to the White House for review. The centerpiece is an interpretive notice that could narrow the jurisdiction of federal securities laws over many digital assets, signaling a potential regulatory shift while the White House weighs the plan.

Regulatory records show the SEC submitted the two proposals to the Office of Management and Budget for review on a recent Friday, with one item explicitly detailing which digital assets the agency might deem securities under federal law. As of Monday, the record listed the package as “pending review” by the White House, a status that could influence both enforcement and regulatory posture depending on the administration’s assessment.

Key takeaways

  • The SEC forwarded two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget, including an interpretive notice on what digital assets could be securities.
  • Chair Jay (Paul) Atkins signaled last week that the agency would not treat four asset classes as securities: digital commodities, digital tools, digital collectibles (NFTs), and stablecoins, while offering a cohesive token taxonomy for these types.
  • The interpretive framework aims to clarify when a “non-security crypto asset” might qualify as an investment contract, providing regulatory guidance ahead of any potential congressional action.
  • The move follows a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC, underscoring growing cross-agency coordination as lawmakers consider a broader market-structure bill for digital assets.

SEC interpretive move and what it could mean for crypto regulation

The SEC’s latest step appears to aim at providing a more coherent framework for determining when a crypto asset falls under securities laws. In a notice released last week, Chair Atkins indicated that digital commodities, digital tools, digital collectibles—including non-fungible tokens—and stablecoins would not be treated as securities under the agency’s purview. The interpretive notice is described as establishing a “coherent token taxonomy” for these asset classes and addressing how a non-security crypto asset may or may not be considered an investment contract under the Howey test.

If finalized, the interpretive rule could serve as a bridge to crypto regulation while Congress debates a more comprehensive market-structure bill to bring clear, unified rules to the sector. The AML-style approach would aim to reduce regulatory ambiguity and potentially recalibrate how exchanges, custodians, and developers operate in the interim. The policy aligns with the agency’s recent collaboration with the CFTC, highlighted by a Memorandum of Understanding signed earlier this month to clarify jurisdictional boundaries and regulatory expectations in the crypto markets.

Regulators and market participants have long sought a stable, forward-looking framework that reduces uncertainty around whether a given token is a security. The SEC’s proposed taxonomy is meant to outline how different digital asset types should be treated, and crucially, when assets may still be subject to investment contract analysis even if they fall outside the securities umbrella. The White House review stage is a critical gate: a positive outcome could accelerate regulatory alignment, while a protracted or revised review could push the timetable for broader legislative action.

Advertisement

Broader policy momentum: White House talks, stablecoins, and the CLARITY Act

Beyond the White House review, the crypto policy landscape continues to evolve at the congressional level. Politico reported on Friday that White House officials and lawmakers had reached an agreement in principle on some aspects of the crypto regime, including stablecoin yield considerations that could shape the market-structure bill’s trajectory in the Senate Banking Committee. However, the committee indefinitely postponed its markup of the bill in January after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed public concerns about the legislation as written, underscoring the political sensitivity surrounding crypto regulation.

As of Monday, there had been no public announcement of a new date for the markup. Senate leadership outlined a workflow prioritizing other legislation, such as the SAVE America Act, before returning to bipartisan crypto debate. Senate Republicans and allies have signaled continued interest in a structured approach to digital assets, but the path remains contingent on both legislative negotiation and regulatory clarity from agencies like the SEC and the CFTC.

The ongoing discussions touch on the CLARITY Act, a proposed framework intended to clarify crypto markets and stablecoins under a market-structure agenda. The interagency dynamics—between the SEC’s jurisdictional interpretations, the CFTC’s role in cash and derivative markets, and congressional arbitration—will shape how quickly a final, enforceable regime can take effect, and what form it will take for issuers, exchanges, and users alike.

Investors and builders should watch two interlinked developments: the White House’s decision on the SEC’s interpretive rules and the progress (or stall) of the market-structure bill in Congress. While a regulatory pathway for many digital assets could reduce policy risk, it could also introduce new compliance obligations, particularly for entities operating in the cross-border or custody-heavy segments of the market. The tension between advancing a broad framework and accommodating industry concerns is likely to persist as lawmakers seek to balance investor protection with innovation.

Advertisement

As the regulatory clock ticks, participants should monitor the White House’s review timeline, the final content of the interpretive notice, and any updates to the market-structure bill’s language—especially provisions around stablecoins and collateral use. The next few weeks could reveal whether the administration’s review will accelerate clarity or reveal remaining ambiguities that require legislative refinement.

What remains uncertain is how quickly the White House completes its review and whether Congress will greenlight a comprehensive framework on digital assets in the near term. For market participants, the key question is whether the unfolding process will reduce regulatory surprise or introduce new interpretive wrinkles that alter how tokens are categorized and traded.

Readers should keep an eye on updates from RegInfo.gov and official agency notices, as well as any new statements from Senators and regulatory staff about the CLARITY Act and related crypto amendments. The evolving stance from the White House and Congress will continue to shape the baseline for crypto regulatory risk, guiding how exchanges structure listings, how issuers approach token design, and how traders price risk in a landscape that remains in flux.

Investors and industry watchers should stay tuned to forthcoming White House feedback on the SEC’s proposals, the pace of the Senate Banking Committee’s work, and further clarity on how the CFTC and SEC will coordinate enforcement and policy in the months ahead.

Advertisement

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Senators to Introduce Bill to Ban Sports Betting on Prediction Markets

Published

on

Senators to Introduce Bill to Ban Sports Betting on Prediction Markets

US Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis are expected to introduce a bipartisan bill on Monday that would bar sports betting and “casino-style” contracts from prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to a Monday Wall Street Journal report.

“Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators,” Senator Curtis, one of the bill’s co-sponsors, told the WSJ.

If introduced as reported, the measure would add to a widening Washington push against certain prediction market contracts. The report adds to the growing regulatory scrutiny over prediction markets, following renewed insider trading concerns sparked by the US-Israeli war with Iran.

On March 10, Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, a bill seeking to prohibit CFTC-regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and individual death.

Advertisement

Related: Prediction markets boom on Iran bets as Congress eyes ban

Sports markets drive trading volume

Sports betting is a leading source of trading activity on prediction market platforms. Sports-related contracts accounted for 47.7% of Polymarket’s weekly notional volume and 78.8% for Kalshi last week, according to Dune data.

Sports betting generated $1.2 billion in weekly notional trading volume for Polymarket and $2.6 billion for Kalshi.

Polymarket, Kalshi, weekly notional volume by category. Source: Dune

State and federal lines blur

The regulatory pressure has also intensified outside Congress. On March 12, the CFTC  issued a staff advisory classifying event contracts on prediction markets as a “financial asset class.”

The commodities regulator also submitted an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, asking for public feedback on how the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) would apply to prediction markets. Polymarket and Kalshi are regulated by the CFTC as Designated Contract Markets (DCM).

Advertisement

Related: Kalshi, Polymarket face trading halt in Nevada after court rulings

While CFTC Chair Michael Selig claimed the CFTC had “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, an Ohio judge tested that claim in a March 9 ruling, saying that Kalshi had failed to show the CEA “would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws,” or that these sports betting contracts would fall under the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the CFTC.

On Friday, a Nevada judge temporarily blocked Kalshi from offering sports, election and entertainment event contracts in the state for 14 days, finding regulators were reasonably likely to succeed in arguing the markets violated Nevada gambling law.

Cointelegraph approached the senators for comment and a copy of the draft bill.

Advertisement

Magazine: Inside a 30,000 phone bot farm stealing crypto airdrops from real users