Big Money vs Selling Pressure?

Cardano’s Midnight (NIGHT) token has had a strong start, but momentum is no longer one-way. NIGHT price is still up nearly 300% from its post-launch lows. Over the past seven days, it remains up close to 70%. But the tone has shifted fast.

In the last 24 hours alone, the NIGHT price has dropped by approximately 10%, now trading at around $0.095.

That pullback matters because it comes with mixed signals under the surface. Some data points point to continued accumulation by large players.

Others suggest selling pressure is building, especially from exchange inflows possibly tied to the airdrop. As January 2026 approaches, the next move will depend less on euphoria and more on whether big money continues to step in.

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Big Wallets Are Accumulating Midnight, but Exchange Supply Is Rising

On-chain holder data shows a clear split between behavior types.

Exchange balances for NIGHT jumped sharply over the past 24 hours. Exchange holdings increased by 17.97%, pushing total exchange balances to roughly 166.14 million NIGHT tokens. That rise strongly suggests increased selling activity.

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Given Midnight’s recent airdrop and tranche-based distribution, a large part of this flow is likely early recipients moving tokens to exchanges to realize gains.

At the same time, mega whales are doing the opposite.

The top 100 addresses increased their holdings by 1.52% over the past 24 hours, even as the price moved lower. This corresponds to approximately 3.6 million NIGHT tokens added on a red day.

Over the past seven days, these same mega whales have increased their holdings by more than 5.6%, continuing to buy both dips and strength while the price climbed nearly 70%.

This divergence is important. Exchange inflows reflect short-term selling pressure, often retail-driven. Mega whale accumulation reflects longer-term positioning.

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For January 2026, the balance between these two forces will matter more than headline price moves.

Capital Flow and Momentum Show Big Money Still Matters Most

The whale data does not stand alone. It lines up closely with what capital flow and momentum indicators are showing on the chart.

We start with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into an asset or out of it. On the 4-hour chart, OBV has pulled back alongside price over the past 24 hours. That shows short-term buying pressure has weakened. For now, the NIGHT price future depends on OBV staying above the trendline.

But OBV weakness alone does not tell the full story.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) adds an important layer. CMF measures whether big capital is entering or leaving the market.

CMF moved above the zero line on December 20 and has stayed positive since. While it has flattened over the past day, it has not turned lower. More importantly, between December 22 and December 23, NIGHT’s price moved down on the 4-hour chart while CMF continued to rise. That is a bullish divergence.

It suggests that even as prices softened, larger wallets were still absorbing supply in the background.

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This validates the Nansen data showing mega whales adding during the dip, even as exchange balances increased.

One Metric That Shows How Important Big Money Is

The VWAP, or Volume-Weighted Average Price, helps connect these signals. VWAP represents the average price paid, weighted by volume, and often acts as a short-term trend guide. NIGHT slipped below the VWAP on December 22 and has struggled to reclaim it so far. That shows near-term weakness and explains why price momentum has stalled.

However, this exact setup has already played out once. On December 15, NIGHT also traded below the VWAP. At that time, CMF was rising from negative territory, signaling growing capital inflows. As CMF strengthened, price reclaimed the VWAP quickly and continued higher. The price rise was more aggressive when the CMF traded above the zero line.

That history matters. For new tokens, VWAP breaks are common during early distribution phases. What decides the outcome is not the VWAP itself, but whether capital flow supports a recovery, like earlier.

In simple terms, short-term traders are stepping back (possibly booking profits), but larger players have not exited. As long as CMF remains positive and whales continue to add on dips, the current weakness looks more like consolidation than a full trend break.

This keeps big money as the key variable heading into January 2026.

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Derivatives and NIGHT Price Action Define the January 2026 Risk Zone

With capital flow slowing, derivatives positioning becomes critical heading into January.

Current liquidation data over the next 7 days shows a market that is still long-biased. On Binance, long liquidation exposure stands near $3.6 million, compared to roughly $2.9 million on the short side. That imbalance narrowed after the recent drop, but longs still dominate.

This creates a fragile setup.

If the NIGHT price continues to weaken while staying below VWAP, long positions become vulnerable. A move toward $0.08 would likely trigger forced liquidations, accelerating downside. That scenario aligns with weakening OBV and stalled CMF.

Key 12-hour price levels frame January clearly:

• $0.101 is the first level NIGHT must reclaim. A clean move above it would ease immediate pressure.
• $0.120 is the real confirmation level. A daily close above it would place NIGHT back into price discovery and invalidate the current weakness.
• $0.071 remains the most important downside support. A break below it would expose deeper retracements toward $0.057 and $0.040.

For January 2026, the path is direct. If whales continue to accumulate, CMF rises again, and price reclaims VWAP, NIGHT can stabilize and attempt another expansion phase. If capital support fades while leverage remains long-heavy, the market risks a liquidation-driven reset before any sustainable trend emerges.