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Binance price eyes $615 fibonacci support as oversold conditions build

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Binance price eyes $615 fibonacci support as oversold conditions build - 1

Binance’s price is approaching the $615 support zone as oversold conditions intensify, placing it at a critical technical inflection point.

Summary

  • $615 is a major confluence support combining the 0.618 Fibonacci, VWAP, and prior value area high
  • Rejection at $932 confirms bearish structure, keeping pressure on price in the short term
  • Oversold conditions raise bounce probability, but confirmation is needed for reversal

Binance (BNB) price has entered a sharp corrective phase following its recent swing high, with bearish momentum accelerating across multiple timeframes. After failing to sustain upside continuation, price has rotated lower in an impulsive fashion, signaling a clear shift in short- to medium-term market structure.

As BNB continues to unwind recent gains, attention is now turning toward a key high-timeframe support region near $615, where technical confluence suggests this level may play a decisive role in determining the next directional move.

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Binance price key technical points

  • $615 marks a major confluence support zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and VWAP support
  • High-timeframe resistance at $932 remains intact, reinforcing the broader corrective structure
  • Oversold conditions increase the probability of a relief bounce, provided structural support holds
Binance price eyes $615 fibonacci support as oversold conditions build - 1
BNBUSDT (1W) Chart, Source: TradingView

The current corrective move began after Binance Coin established a new high at a time-frame resistance near $932.

This level acted as a decisive rejection point, where bullish momentum stalled and sellers regained control.

The failure to reclaim acceptance above this resistance confirmed a structural low and initiated the current impulsive move to the downside.

Since that rejection, price action has remained consistently bearish, with lower highs and expanding downside candles reflecting aggressive selling pressure. This behavior suggests that the move lower is not merely a shallow pullback, but a broader corrective rotation within the prevailing market cycle.

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$615 support zone comes into focus

As price continues to decline, the $615 region has emerged as the most important technical level in the near term.

This zone represents a high-confluence area where multiple technical factors align, including the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the broader move and VWAP-based support.

Additionally, this region sits above the previous range value area high, strengthening its relevance as a structural support level.

Historically, when price revisits such confluence zones after an impulsive move, the market often pauses to reassess value. If buyers step in to defend this area, it increases the likelihood that prices will stabilize and form a base for a corrective rebound.

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Oversold conditions signal potential exhaustion

Momentum indicators are now beginning to reflect oversold conditions following the extensive selling seen over recent days and weeks. While bearish trends can persist longer than expected, oversold readings often signal that downside momentum may be nearing exhaustion, especially when price approaches major support.

Importantly, oversold conditions alone do not confirm a reversal. However, when combined with strong structural support, they increase the probability of at least a short-term relief bounce. Any such bounce would likely be corrective in nature unless accompanied by a clear reclaim of higher resistance levels.

What to expect in the coming price action

From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, the $615 region represents a critical make-or-break level for Binance Coin. A successful defense of this support could allow BNB to establish a higher low and trigger a rotation back toward higher price targets. Conversely, failure to hold this zone would expose the market to deeper corrective levels and extend the bearish structure.

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Until confirmation emerges, traders should closely monitor volume behavior and price reaction around support. A strong bullish response would signal improving demand, while continued weakness would reinforce downside risk. For now, all eyes remain on $615 as the market approaches a pivotal moment in Binance Coin’s corrective cycle.

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Crypto World

Here’s Why Bitcoin Analysts Say BTC Market Has Entered “Full Capitulation”

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Here’s Why Bitcoin Analysts Say BTC Market Has Entered "Full Capitulation"

Bitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed their activity on Thursday as the BTC price dropped below $69,000, the lowest since Nov. 6, 2024.

Analysts said that Bitcoin showed signs of “full capitulation” and a potential bottom forming, due to extreme market fear, panic selling by short-term holders and the relative strength index (RSI).

Key takeaways:

  • Short-term Bitcoin holders have sold nearly 60,000 BTC in 24 hours.

  • The Crypto Fear & Greed index shows “extreme fear,” signaling a potential bottom.

  • Bitcoin’s “most oversold” RSI points to seller exhaustion.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Short-term holder capitulation deepens

Nearly 60,000 BTC, worth about $4.2 billion at current rates, held by short-term holders (STHs), or investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days, were moved to exchanges at a loss over the last 24 hours, according to data from CryptoQuant.

This was the largest exchange inflow year-to-date, which is contributing to selling pressure.

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“The correction is so severe that no BTC in profit is being moved by LTHs,” CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said in a post on X, adding:

“This is a full capitulation.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC short-term holder losses to exchanges in 24 Hours. Source: CryptoQuant

When analyzing the volume of coins spent at a loss, Glassnode found that the 7-day SMA of realized losses has risen above $1.26 billion per day.

This reflects a “marked increase in fear,” Glassnode said, adding:

“Historically, spikes in realized losses often coincide with moments of acute seller exhaustion, where marginal sell pressure begins to fade.”

Bitcoin: Unrealized loss. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s capitulation metric has also “printed its second-largest spike in two years,” occurrences that have previously coincided with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning,” Glassnode said.

Capitulation Metric & Current Price. Source: Glassnode

“Extreme fear” could signal market bottom

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “extreme fear” score of 12 on Thursday.

These levels were last seen on July 22, a few months before the BTC price bottomed at $15,500 and then embarked on a bull run.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Crypto fear and greed index. Source: Alternative.me

Data reveals that in all capitulation events where the index hit this extreme level, short-term weakness was common, but almost every event produced a rebound.

“We are at an ‘extreme fear’ level with a Crypto Fear and Greed Index of 11,” said analyst Davie Satoshi in an X post on Thursday, adding:

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“History has shown this is the time to buy and accumulate more!”

Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in an X post on Thursday that the investor sentiment has “​​turned extremely bearish toward Bitcoin.”

“This remains a strong argument for a short-term relief rally as long as the small trader crowd continues to show disbelief toward cryptocurrency as a whole.”

Bitcoin: Positive/negative sentiment ratio. Source: Santiment

Bitcoin “most oversold” RSI signals seller exhaustion

CoinGlass‘ heatmap shows that BTC’s RSI is displaying oversold conditions on five out of six time frames.

Bitcoin’s RSI is now at 18 on the 12-hour chart, 20 on the daily chart and 23 on the four-hour chart. Other intervals also display oversold or near-oversold RSI values, such as 30 and 31 on the weekly and hourly time frames, respectively. 

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Crypto market RSI heatmap. Source: Coinglass

In fact, data from TradingView shows that the weekly RSI is at 29 on Thursday, the “most oversold” since the 2022 bear market, according to analysts. 

“Bitcoin is now the MOST oversold since the FTX crash,” CryptoXLARGE said in an X post on Wednesday, adding that it reflects panic selling among investors.

“Historically, this is where fear peaks and opportunity begins,” the analyst added.

Source: X/CryptoXLARGE

Bitcoin’s RSI is at the same oversold levels last seen around $16K in 2022, which marked the “last major capitulation,” phase, said analyst HodlFM in a recent post on X, adding:

“Not a timing signal by itself, but historically, this is where risk/reward favors the buyers.”