Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) price by short-termism as rally fades ahead of U.S. payrolls report: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptocurrency prices are falling as some holders look to cash in on the mid-week bounce to $74,000 and others prefer less risky assets as the war in the Middle East escalates.
Bitcoin has lost 3.7% in the past 24 hours, holding just above $70,000, while the wider CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropped 3.5% as momentum from the rally earlier in the week cools. Bitcoin cleared $74,000 on Wednesday and is still up more than 6% over five days.
Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, said the decline reflects selling pressure from short-term traders who bought the recovery. “Despite the recent recovery, there is still limited conviction that the rally will continue,” Otychenko told CoinDesk.
Meanwhile, derivatives markets show growing pessimism. Funding rates remain deeply negative, meaning traders are paying to hold onto short positions.
But underlying demand hasn’t gone anywhere. Otychenko noted that stablecoin movements into exchanges recently reached their highest levels in 2026 while spot bitcoin ETF flows turned positive.
“This creates a clear conflict in the market. Institutional spot buyers are accumulating Bitcoin, while derivatives traders are increasing short positions,” he added. “Historically, when spot accumulation coincides with negative funding, it often ends in a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to close positions and the price moves higher. However, that outcome is not guaranteed.”
Geopolitics remains a factor. Brent crude is up more than 22% in the past week after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global supply.
“Hormuz tanker traffic is still down 92%, Goldman is warning oil could hit $100, and the curve is flattening again as the short end reprices inflation risk with the 2Y backing up to 3.51%,” said Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute in a note.
The surge in energy prices is feeding inflation concerns, prompting traders to reconsider interest-rate cut expectations. Bond markets are already reflecting that shift, with U.S. Treasury yields rising as investors price in the risk that inflation will remain elevated.
And don’t forget, there’s also the U.S. jobs report later today, which will also feed into the Fed’s interest-rate decisions. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February Est. 59K (Prev. 130K)
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. unemployment rate for February Est 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. average hourly earnings MoM for February Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 6: Metalpha (MATH), pre-market
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- No major governance votes & calls.
- Unlocks
- March 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.72% of its circulating supply worth around $288.77 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 1.15% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,398.30 (24hrs: -2.89%)
- ETH is down 1.58% at $2,055.24 (24hrs: -3.01%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.22% at 2,008.56 (24hrs: -3.52%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 8 bps at 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.011% (-1.2209% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.23
- Gold futures are up 0.69% at $5,100.10
- Silver futures are up 1.64% at $83.03
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.62% at 55,620.84
- Hang Seng closed up 1.72% at 25,757.29
- FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,415.70
- Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,760.30
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.61% at 47,954.74
- S&P 500 closed down 0.56% at 6,830.71
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.26% at 22,748.99
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.98% at 33,610.00
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 3.12% at 7,318.90
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 7 bps at 4.15%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,804.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,905.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 47,804.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.47% (-0.02%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (-0.24%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,026 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $30.66
- Total fees: 2.75 BTC / $198,402
- CME Futures Open Interest: 104,755 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.8 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.71%
Technical Analysis
- The ratio of altcoins (excluding top 10) to bitcoin is looking likely to close above the 50-week exponential moving average, implying no clear breakout for altcoinss relative to BTC.
- With no clear RSI divergences it is unlikely we will see a sustained rally from the broader altcoin universe.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $205.71 (–1.54%), –0.40% at $204.89 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.73 (–6.61%), –0.70% at $22.57
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.77 (–5.60%), –0.91% at $8.69
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.60 (–5.63%), –0.71% at $15.49
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.00 (+1.01%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (–6.66%), –0.50% at $9.90
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $11.18 (–8.06%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.25 (–4.73%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.74 (+0.45%), –0.43% at $105.29
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.02 (–4.99%), unchanged at $35.00
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.81 (–4.53%), –0.30% at $139.39
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.25 (–3.85%)
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.93 (–2.46%), –1.01% at $7.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.96 (–10.93%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (–7.38%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$227.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.7 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$90.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.74 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of the more outspoken voices in Congress often connecting cryptocurrencies to illicit activities, slammed the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s settlement with Tron founder Justin Sun.
In a Thursday notice, Warren accused the SEC of “giving a free pass” to Sun after he “poured $90 million” in crypto investments tied to US President Donald Trump and his family.
Sun has invested millions of dollars through token purchases in the Trump family’s crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, and the SEC settled an unrelated case against the Tron founder and his companies for $10 million.
“Justin Sun poured $90 million into Trump’s crypto ventures, and today the SEC agreed to drop its case against him,” said Warren. “The SEC should not be a lap dog for Trump’s billionaire buddies, and any crypto legislation moving through Congress must stop the President’s crypto corruption.”
Warren did not specifically refer to the digital asset market structure bill moving through the Senate, but the legislation has been a focus of the White House and many pro-crypto lawmakers for months after it passed the House of Representatives as the CLARITY Act. The bill, which advanced from the Senate Agriculture Committee in January, is being considered by the Senate Banking Committee, where Warren is the ranking Democrat.
Related: Binance slams US Senate probe over Iran as based on defamatory reports
Crypto observers await markup for market structure bill
Among the issues at stake in the market structure bill include provisions on tokenized equities, ethics and stablecoin rewards. The White House has hosted three meetings between officials and representatives of the crypto and banking industries, but it was unclear as of Friday whether the discussions had made any impact on the legislation.
Both Trump and his son, Eric, posted to social media this week to criticize banks over their position on the market structure bill. Some banking organizations have argued that including provisions on stablecoin rewards in the legislation could undermine credit and lead to deposit flight risk.
In January, the Senate Banking Committee indefinitely postponed a markup on the market structure bill after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the exchange could not support the legislation “as written.” As of Friday, the body had not rescheduled the event, which would be necessary to address securities law concerns before a potential vote in the full Senate.
Magazine: Clarity Act risks repeat of Europe’s mistakes, crypto lawyer warns
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped back into its monthly trading range under $70,000 after dropping 5% over the past two days.
Market data points to resistance near the $70,000 level, with onchain flows, futures data, and weakening spot volumes signaling renewed selling pressure that limits BTC’s ability to hold this week’s range highs.
BTC short-term holders locked in profit
Profit-taking from the short-term holders (STHs) accelerated during Bitcoin’s rally above $74,000. Crypto analyst Darkfost said that more than 27,000 BTC in profit moved to exchanges from STH wallets over the past 24 hours.
The spike ranks among the largest realized-profit transfers from this cohort since November 2025.
Darkfost noted that the sellers were able to lock in gains mainly accumulated between one week and one month ago, as their realized price sat near $68,000.
Bitcoin futures data showed a similar pattern of aggressive selling activity. Market analyst IT Tech noted that both spot and perpetual futures markets recently flipped negative on the cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicator. The CVD measures buy volume minus sell volume. A negative reading signals dominant selling pressure.
According to the analyst, the spot CVD reached –$202.49 million while perpetual futures CVD dropped to –$185.60 million. Bitcoin slipped below $70,000 during the same period, as bid liquidity pulled back in the market.
Related: Bitcoin price drops to near $68K as US jobs weakness fails to rescue bulls
Coinbase premium index signals fading demand
The spot demand from US-based traders also weakened near key price inflection points.
The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the Bitcoin price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has repeatedly faded as BTC approached $74,000. The positive readings usually signal a stronger US spot demand.
During Bitcoin’s rally toward the $73,000–$74,000 range on March 4, the premium briefly spiked above 0.08, indicating strong buying activity from Coinbase-using entities.
The move quickly faded as the price reverted from $74,000, and the premium later turned negative.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said that the Friday US sessions have recently produced broad market selling across the risk assets, including the Nasdaq.
Van de Poppe added that Bitcoin holding the $67,000–$68,000 range may stabilize the short-term trend before a continued move higher.
Additionally, crypto trader Titan of Crypto pointed to a nearby fair value gap (FVG) that could support the price consolidation. An FVG forms when the price moves quickly and leaves a low-liquidity area where minimal trading occurred during a breakout. Technically, the price may revisit these zones to rebalance the liquidity.
The lower boundary of that gap sits near $66,500, which the trader is monitoring as a deeper liquidity zone.
Related: Was $74K a bull trap? Bitcoin traders diverge on 2022 crash repeating
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Total crypto capitalization is down 3% to $2.4 trillion amid a global market retreat.
Crypto markets declined for a second day, with investors remaining cautious heading into the weekend amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Global markets face pressure after oil spiked another 14% today, with prices now exceeding $90 per barrel for the first time since 2023.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $68,000, down 4% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH and SOL fell 4.5% to about $1,970 and $84, respectively, and BNB is down 3% on the day.
The overall crypto market capitalization declined by another 3% to $2.4 trillion, according to Coingecko.
U.S. stocks fell after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, well below estimates. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4% from 4.3%.
Crude oil (WTI) surged above $90 per barrel after President Trump said the war would not end without an unconditional surrender by Iran. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slipped by around 1%, while gold and silver posted modest gains.
Almost all of the Top 100 digital assets posted losses over the last 24 hours. Today’s top gainer is Pi Network (PI), which ralled 5.5%.
Ethena (ENA) and Zcash (ZEC) are the biggest losers, plunging 8%.
Around 96,000 leveraged traders were liquidated for $324 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin accounted for $158 million, while ETH positions made up $67 million.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded outflows of $228 million on Tuesday, ending their multi-day winning streak.
As geopolitical tensions escalate and global markets face a new wave of uncertainty, one asset has been behaving in an unexpected way: Bitcoin.
While the Middle East slides deeper into conflict and energy markets react to potential supply disruptions, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has held up relatively well compared to many traditional assets.
For some observers, that resilience raises an important question: Could Bitcoin be signaling something about the macro environment that markets haven’t fully priced in?
In our latest interview, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, shares his perspective on the forces shaping the global economy, and why the coming months could prove pivotal for financial markets.
On the geopolitical front, Hayes argues that investors may be underestimating the risks if the current conflict expands or drags on.
“I don’t think global markets are fully priced in [on] a longer war between the US and Iran,” he said. If energy flows are disrupted, the ripple effects could spread through the global economy via higher oil prices, inflationary pressure and increased volatility across markets.
At the same time, Hayes says another powerful disruption is unfolding beneath the surface: artificial intelligence.
According to him, AI could rapidly reshape the labor market by replacing a significant share of knowledge workers, from lawyers and bankers to accountants and analysts. If that transition happens quickly, the result could be widespread credit stress as households struggle to service existing debt.
Ultimately, Hayes believes the global financial system tends to respond to crises the same way: with liquidity. “Bitcoin is essentially just a liquidity smoke alarm,” he says.
To hear Hayes break down his macro thesis, watch the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Adoption and Offline Storage on the Rise Despite Weak Market Conditions (Santiment)
Despite the shaky price movements, there’s some good news on the BTC adoption front.
The crypto research firm Santiment has identified network data indicating that Bitcoin adoption is rising despite the market’s weakened state.
Santiment’s findings revealed that not only is Bitcoin adoption rising, but cold storage is increasing as well. Investors are increasingly sending their bitcoins (BTC) to offline storage platforms, a pattern usually seen among users who intend to hold for the long term.
Bitcoin Adoption is Rising
According to Santiment’s tweet, the number of separate non-empty wallets on the Bitcoin network has climbed to an all-time high of 58.45 million. This metric witnessed a 1.69 million rise in six months, reflecting a 3% uptick. Such growth indicates that more investors have been buying and holding BTC over the last few months, regardless of the decline in prices and the widely-believed onset of the bear market.
In addition, the amount of BTC on known exchange wallets has plummeted to its lowest level since December 2017. Currently, such wallets hold only 1.17 million BTC.
The rising adoption and the move to offline storage reflect a “buy the dip” trend among investors. Both retail and institutional investors have been accumulating the digital asset; however, at an insignificant pace. It also appears institutional investors have been accumulating more than their retail counterparts.
Earlier this month, CryptoPotato reported that last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their first major accumulation wave since mid-October 2025, while retail flows declined. As ETF inflows totalled $1.45 billion on February 25, data shared by analysts showed a $5 billion contraction in retail inflows over the 30-day period from February 6 to March 2.
Genuine Accumulation Drives Spot Demand
Meanwhile, spot demand is also climbing amid war tensions. Despite geopolitical uncertainty shaking markets, unleveraged investors and institutions are still buying. A part of the demand can also be traced to U.S. investors, as seen in the Coinbase Premium, which flipped positive after a long negative streak.
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Data from the derivatives market also shows that the demand is not driven by speculative activity stemming from leveraged trades, but by genuine accumulation. This spot demand has pushed BTC back above $70,000 for the first time in three weeks. At the time of writing, the leading crypto asset was trading around $70,560, down slightly over the past 24 hours.
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Bitcoin and the leading cryptocurrencies staged a recovery this week following initial shockwaves from the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
Bitcoin (BTC) initially fell to $63,245 on Sunday, before briefly recovering to $73,000 on Thursday, assisted by renewed demand from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which logged $1.1 billion in net weekly inflows leading up to Thursday.
In the broader DeFi space, Aave’s governance dispute continued, with the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI) saying it will not renew its engagement with the Aave DAO and plans to wind down operations in the next four months.
Aave Chan Initiative to exit Aave DAO after governance clash over funding
The ACI, a major governance delegate and service provider within the Aave ecosystem, said it will not renew its engagement with the Aave DAO and plans to wind down over the next four months.
In a statement on Tuesday, ACI founder Marc Zeller said the organization would continue governance activity and complete outstanding commitments before transferring its infrastructure and responsibilities to the DAO or successor providers.
“The Aave Chan Initiative was built for Aave. Without a future in the Aave ecosystem, the name no longer applies. ACI will wrap up as our obligations conclude,” Zeller wrote.
ACI said its decision to exit was driven by concerns over governance standards and voting dynamics during the proposal process, marking a significant shift in Aave’s governance landscape as its funding plan advances to the next stage.
Strive strategist says AI deflation could push Bitcoin to $11 million by 2036
Technological deflation driven by artificial intelligence could help push Bitcoin above $10 million within a decade by pressuring central banks to keep expanding the money supply, according to a report from Strive strategist Joe Burnett.
Burnett, Strive’s vice president of Bitcoin strategy, said in a report published Monday that faster productivity gains from AI will push down prices across goods and services, squeezing margins and prompting policymakers to respond with sustained monetary expansion. His “base case” calls for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $11 million in the first quarter of 2036, he wrote.
”My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per Bitcoin.”
The forecast rests on a set of aggressive assumptions, including that Bitcoin would grow to about 12% of the value of global financial assets and that global wealth would compound at 7% annually through 2036. With Bitcoin currently accounting for about 0.2% of all financial assets, this would involve an over 176-fold increase in Bitcoin’s market capitalization during the next decade to hit $230 trillion.
The forecast would imply that Bitcoin will become the dominant global reserve asset along with structurally loose monetary policy over the next decade, Nic Puckrin, co-founder and lead market analyst of educational platform Coin Bureau, told Cointelegraph.
”The forecast implies Bitcoin would become around 10 times as large as the current US M2 money supply, nearly four times as large as the US equity market today, and nearly double current global GDP.”
The prediction would also imply a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 53% per annum, which is not unprecedented considering Bitcoin’s average 60% CAGR between 2015 and 2024, but a slowdown may be expected due to its larger market capitalization, added Puckrin.
Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, agreed, warning that the prediction would imply a “huge” 16,318% increase for Bitcoin during the next decade, which looks unlikely due to Bitcoin’s declining volatility.
“The more liquidity flows into the asset from both institutional and retail investors, the less likely sharp price spikes will be recorded,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding that the “realistic price range is at most $1 million.”
Stablecoin inflows rebound to $1.7 billion as Washington battles over yield rules
Weekly net stablecoin inflows rebounded last week as onchain activity picked up even while US lawmakers and banking groups sparred over whether third parties should be allowed to pay stablecoin yield, according to a new report from Messari.
Weekly net stablecoin inflows accelerated to $1.7 billion, a 414.5% increase week-on-week, according to the report published on Wednesday.
The recovery flipped the 30-day average to a positive $162.5 million in daily inflows. Transaction volumes rose 6.3%, while average transaction size continued to decline, reflecting renewed stablecoin issuance demand and “strengthened” onchain activity amid retail investors, the report said.
Stablecoin inflows track net new stablecoins entering circulation after accounting for redemptions.
The surge follows a weaker period earlier in the year. Messari data showed $249 million in weekly inflows two weeks earlier and $4.4 billion in net outflows over the 30 days leading up to Feb. 18.
Solv Protocol offers 10% bounty after $2.7 million vault exploit
Bitcoin-based decentralized finance platform Solv Protocol says one of its token vaults was exploited for $2.7 million and has offered the attacker a 10% bounty in exchange for returning the stolen funds.
Solv said in an X post on Thursday that fewer than 10 of its users were impacted, but it would cover the loss of 38.05 Solv Protocol BTC (SolvBTC), a token pegged to Bitcoin (BTC).
The project added that it had implemented measures to prevent the attack from recurring and was investigating the exploit with crypto security firms Hypernative, SlowMist and CertiK.
Solv allows users to deposit Bitcoin for Solv Protocol BTC, which they can then use to lend, borrow or stake on other blockchains. The project has 24,226 Bitcoin worth over $1.7 billion and claims it is the largest onchain Bitcoin reserve.
Solv hasn’t confirmed how the exploit occurred, but two crypto security researchers said it stemmed from a vulnerability in one of Solv’s smart contracts that allowed the attacker to mint excessive amounts of a token used on the protocol.
The attacker exploited the vulnerability 22 times before swapping hundreds of millions of tokens for just over 38 SolvBTC, according to CD Security co-founder Chris Dior.
Bybit claims new fraud system stopped $300 million of risky withdrawals in Q4 2025
Bybit said it blocked or disrupted more than $300 million worth of suspected scam-related withdrawals in the fourth quarter of 2025 after rolling out an AI-assisted risk monitoring system designed to flag malicious transactions before funds leave the exchange.
In a company blog post, Bybit said its system flagged about $500 million in withdrawal requests during the quarter and that more than 4,000 users were “protected” after the platform issued real-time risk alerts or blocked transactions outright.
Bybit’s head of group risk control, David Zong, told Cointelegraph that much of the $300 million total reflects withdrawals users voluntarily cancelled after seeing warnings, meaning the funds remained in their accounts rather than requiring clawbacks or reimbursement.
“Because the withdrawals were stopped prior to completion, the funds did not require recovery or reimbursement. They remained in users’ accounts at all times.”
Bybit said the system also identified 350 high-risk investment fraud addresses that shielded 8,000 users from potential withdrawal losses during the previous quarter. It also thwarted over 3 million credential stuffing attacks attempted by hackers throughout 2025.
Cryptocurrency hacks resulted in $3.4 billion in losses during 2025, as hackers turned their focus to large crypto entities.
DeFi market overview
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the green.
The River (RIVER) token rose 94% as the biggest gainer of the week, followed by the Humanity Protocol (H) token, up 39% during the past week.
Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.
Surprise February US jobs losses and a higher unemployment rate revive rate‑cut hopes but leave BTC stuck near $70K amid broader risk‑off mood.
Summary
- The US jobs shed 92,000 in February versus forecasts for a 59,000 gain, a sharp reversal from January’s 126,000 increase.
- Unemployment rose to 4.4%, above the expected 4.3%, underscoring a more fragile labor backdrop.
- BTC is pinned around $70,000 as traders weigh softer data against spiking oil, falling equities and shifting Fed‑cut odds.
February’s US jobs report landed as a clean downside surprise: instead of a modest payroll gain, the U.S. economy outright lost 92,000 positions, a swing of more than 180,000 versus consensus and a clear deterioration from January’s 126,000 increase.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, overshooting economist expectations and marking a subtle but important break from the “resilient labor market” narrative that has underpinned the Federal Reserve’s higher‑for‑longer stance. On paper, that kind of softness should be a gift to duration assets and high‑beta plays like crypto, because it nudges the Fed closer to rate cuts in the first half of 2026.
The initial market reaction, however, is more conflicted than the textbook macro trade. Bitcoin (BTC), which had already slid overnight as crude spiked and equity futures rolled over, hovered near $70,000 in the minutes after the release, showing no appetite for an aggressive relief rally. Nasdaq futures are down about 1% and S&P 500 contracts off roughly 0.8%, while the 10‑year Treasury yield has eased to around 4.11%, signaling a modest bid for safety rather than a full‑blown “pivot” euphoria. Classic hedges are perking up instead: gold is up roughly 1%, silver 2%, and WTI crude is surging more than 6% to about $86 per barrel, reflecting persistent geopolitical and inflation risk tied to the Iran conflict.
For crypto, that mix is toxic: yes, weaker jobs data theoretically increases the probability of cuts later this year, but an oil‑driven inflation squeeze and rising recession odds complicate the narrative. If growth slows while energy and food keep headline inflation sticky, the Fed’s room to ease aggressively shrinks, leaving bitcoin trapped between “digital gold” narratives and simple de‑risking alongside tech and high‑beta assets. With BTC stuck near $70K and the CoinDesk 20 under pressure, traders are treating this jobs miss less as a green light to lever up and more as another stress signal in a macro regime defined by war‑driven oil shocks, fragile credit and a Fed that cannot yet declare victory.
Crypto World
Fed Governor Miran says job losses in February add to the case for more interest rate cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Friday that the weak February jobs report bolsters the rationale for the central bank to lower interest rates further.
Responding to the drop of 92,000 in nonfarm payrolls that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, Miran said in a CNBC interview that the Fed should be focusing more on supporting the labor market than worrying about inflation.
“I think that we don’t have an inflation problem,” he said on the “Money Movers” show. “I think that the labor market can use more accommodation from monetary policy. And I don’t see having a modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy as opposed to a neutral stance as being appropriate. I think being close to neutral is appropriate.”
Currently, the Fed’s key interest rate is targeted in a range between 3.5% to 3.75%, following three consecutive quarter percentage point cuts in the latter part of 2025.
If Miran had his way, the rate would be around neutral, which he deems to be about a full percentage point lower. The consensus of Fed officials at the December meeting was that neutral — a level neither holds back nor boosts the economy — is around 3.1%, implying two more cuts.
Miran has been arguing that stubbornly high inflation numbers are more a function of how it is measured by the Commerce and Labor departments rather than true underlying pressures.
One factor he cited was portfolio management fees, which have risen amid a generally higher stock market. Portfolio management fees are often charged as a percentage of assets, so when markets rise the dollar value of those fees increases even though the underlying rate for those services does not.
The recent surge in oil prices and corresponding boost for costs at the pump related to the Iran war are less of a concern, Miran added.
“Typically, the Federal Reserve doesn’t respond to higher oil prices like that. It [boosts] headline inflation, but it tends to be a one-off shock,” he said. “When you think about core inflation [which does not include energy prices], it tends to be more predictive of where inflation is going over the medium term than headline inflation.”
Miran has dissented at each of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings he has attended since September, after President Donald Trump nominated him as a governor. For the three rate cuts, he preferred more aggressive half percentage point reductions to the quarter-point moves the committee approved. In January, when the FOMC voted not to cut, Miran said he wanted a quarter-point reduction.
Asked if he would dissent again, he said, “I hope not, but that would be up to my colleagues. I hope that we vote to cut.”
Miran was appointed to full the unexpired term of Adriana Kugler, who resigned in August 2025. That term expired in January, but Miran has continued to serve until a successor is approved. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to a position that ultimately will be a replacement for current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May.
“I will be at the meeting in a couple weeks, and after that I will take it a day at a time,” Miran said.
AI is infiltrating every layer of society, finance included. What began as asking ChatGPT about your deepest money worries has rapidly evolved into agents capable of reasoning, executing and coordinating across markets with minimal human intervention.
The pace of change at the intersection of AI and finance is daily, not weekly. Goldman Sachs has warned of AI-fueled layoffs, while Citrini Research’s brief job-displacement scare sparked an AI trade, signaling the scale of disruption ahead. As Matt Shumer wrote in ‘Something Big is Happening,’ adaptability may be the only durable advantage, and now is the time to get your financial house in order.
There’s a simpler way to think about surviving and thriving in the AI era. Instead of trying to outlearn every new AI tool, focus on mastering the AI skills that will build a financial buffer or even a nest egg. Creating insulation against AI-driven disruption that’s coming.
Those who learn to deploy finance AI agents to build capital on their behalf won’t need to obsess over whether their current role survives the next restructuring or scramble to master every new AI release. They’ll be building the means to survive and thrive through the next wave of AI layoffs, using AI.
The greater financial risk may be doing nothing without considering the latest AI alternatives. The opportunity cost of ignoring agents isn’t just missed returns; it’s remaining reactive, paralyzed or paying fund manager fees while the window of gains narrows. Instead of panicked ChatGPT searches, this is a chance to take deliberate control of your financial house, learning just one new skill.
That new skill is agent selection. With the right team of agents doing the heavy lifting with your investments, operating within clear constraints and aligned to defined goals, anyone could be future-proofing their finances.
It’s time to put AI in the financial field
AI is the great equalizer, unlocking the ability for everyone to build generational wealth beyond the elites. AI has the potential to be a major multiplier for anyone’s investments by trading markets better, faster, cheaper, and on repeat, with minimal human intervention. What remains to be seen is whether the rest of us will seize this window of opportunity while institutions hold the headstart.
Today, AI agents for traders remain largely underutilized by the AI-curious. Either confined to institutions or misunderstood by individuals, where perceptions of risk are shaped more by OpenClaw headlines than by how agent risk is actually managed with human oversight, strict controls and proper security, designed by dedicated teams.
Many self-described financial use cases still resemble people treating AI chat interfaces like magic eight balls for money decisions, rather than harnessing the full strategic power of this breakout technology. Nearly one in five (19%) globally now use AI tools to build or adjust their portfolio (eToro), and almost two in five (39%) Brits use AI tools for future financial planning (Lloyds Group). Seeking incremental advice on DIY finance won’t deliver the exponential gains– disciplined execution will.
It’s time to rethink where human judgment adds most value. It makes financial sense to play to our strengths, let humans do what AI can’t and leave AI to do the heavy lifting. Humans are best at defining their investment goals, allocating capital thoughtfully, setting risk constraints and deciding when to intervene. AI is best at executing trades with discipline and precision.
AI is already better at trading than humans
AI is starting to deliver material returns for quant funds and high-frequency traders. AI quant hedge fund Ningbo’s High-Flyer disclosed an average 52.55% return in 2025, placing it top of the industry’s leaders.
By comparison, 84% of retail traders lost money in their first year of trading crypto. The uncomfortable truth is that most traders don’t lose money because they lack information; they lose because they lack discipline. AI doesn’t sleep, hesitate, panic, get bored, impulsively or revenge-trade like humans.
Agents watch every market 24/7, spotting risks, debating strategies and executing the strategy they’re trained on without hesitation. AI executes trades with an edge humans can’t match, where profits are won and lost in milliseconds and margins are razor-thin.
Agent selection and management will be core skills of the future
Agent selection will be one of the defining skills of the next decade. Not prompt engineering or chasing the latest model release. Followed by managing agents.
Think of trading AI agents less like fantasy football and more like owning a real club. When real money is on the line, you don’t draft on hype. You build a squad designed to win across conditions. A striker for momentum, a disciplined defender for mean reversion or a quiet midfielder exploiting arbitrage. You train for tough matches and evaluate performance against expectations.
The same discipline applies to capital. You set the objective, impose constraints and install kill switches, position caps and verify stop-loss controls. You measure more than the last scoreline, tracking consistency, drawdowns and adaptability across regimes. Soon, agents won’t just claim results; they’ll be ranked against transparent and standardized benchmarks. Like any league table, the numbers will speak for themselves.
Take your place in the coach’s box instead of shouting from the stands
Markets will increasingly trade themselves, and crypto is already the proving ground. In a 24/7, onchain environment where speed and discipline compound, agentic systems are beginning to shape liquidity and volatility in real time. The real risk isn’t letting agents compete. It’s waiting until the window closes and the margins compress.
In football, fans watch the game. Coaches shape it. Those who thrive in the AI arena will build and manage squads of trading agents, refining strategy as conditions change and using the technology to keep pace with the industry. In the next league of markets, financial freedom won’t come from watching; it’ll come from building the team from the coach’s box. If job disruption from AI is inevitable, can you afford to stay in the stands?
At a certain point, Strategy investors might start asking themselves what the difference is between STRC and just buying bitcoin (BTC) on a credit card.
Michael Saylor has called STRC his company’s “greatest feat of financial engineering to date,” but its costs keep getting worse. Indeed, its dividend obligations have increased 27% since July, worsening every month since issuance.
Saylor is sticking to the belief that BTC will somehow rally 30% a year for at least a decade to pay for everything, even though the last year it appreciated that much was 2021. Fixated on that number as an imaginary cushion, Saylor has casually hiked STRC’s monthly interest rates toward something that looks more like paying off a credit card than responsibly raising capital for long-term investing.
STRC is a perpetual dividend-paying preferred stock and the company’s self-proclaimed “iPhone moment.”
When the company sells STRC to investors, it funds BTC purchases for Strategy in exchange for monthly dividend payments at an interest rate about 60% the rate of the average US credit card.
On average, US consumers pay about 18.7% to 19.6% APR to service their credit card balance, depending on the poll. Strategy now pays STRC holders 11.5%, or about 60% of that rate, just to keep STRC near its quasi-peg or “par” value of $100 per share.
When STRC launched last July, it offered generous 9% annual dividends, and Saylor’s dubious promise of bank account-like stability.
After STRC fell to $90.52 in November, and again to $93.10 in February, Saylor paid up to guarantee his “iPhone moment” wouldn’t flop.
Incredibly, Strategy has hiked STRC’s dividend seven times since launch.
Read more: Strategy manager wrong about BTC backing STRC
‘Low volatility’ needed a bailout from volatility
Strategy’s cumulative 250 basis point increase since launch has worked, at least temporarily. The rapid and dramatic dividend hikes have bailed out STRC from its downside volatility.
This week, Saylor boasted about STRC trading in a tight intraday range near $100. He then retweeted a Strategy employee calling STRC “the most creative financial instrument in today’s capital markets.”
On the back end, that creativity carries a price tag. Strategy’s total annual dividend obligations now exceed $900 million.
Moreover, the company is under considerable pressure. It’s reported a $12.4 billion net loss for Q4 2025 and its common stock, MSTR, has declined 8% year-to-date, 54% over the past 12 months, and 74% from its November 2024 high.
Worse, the company’s entire BTC-buying operation has lost money since inception. BTC is worth less than Strategy’s average purchase cost of $75,985 per coin, and the company would have fewer losses if it had never bought BTC in the first place.
Moreover, the company’s premium to its BTC holdings has collapsed entirely.
At 11.5% and rising, the question is probably not whether STRC can trade at its $100 par, but how much Strategy can afford to pay to keep it trading there.
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