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Bitcoin (BTC) price by short-termism as rally fades ahead of U.S. payrolls report: Crypto Daybook Americas

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CD20 components

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Cryptocurrency prices are falling as some holders look to cash in on the mid-week bounce to $74,000 and others prefer less risky assets as the war in the Middle East escalates.

Bitcoin has lost 3.7% in the past 24 hours, holding just above $70,000, while the wider CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropped 3.5% as momentum from the rally earlier in the week cools. Bitcoin cleared $74,000 on Wednesday and is still up more than 6% over five days.

Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, said the decline reflects selling pressure from short-term traders who bought the recovery. “Despite the recent recovery, there is still limited conviction that the rally will continue,” Otychenko told CoinDesk.

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Meanwhile, derivatives markets show growing pessimism. Funding rates remain deeply negative, meaning traders are paying to hold onto short positions.

But underlying demand hasn’t gone anywhere. Otychenko noted that stablecoin movements into exchanges recently reached their highest levels in 2026 while spot bitcoin ETF flows turned positive.

“This creates a clear conflict in the market. Institutional spot buyers are accumulating Bitcoin, while derivatives traders are increasing short positions,” he added. “Historically, when spot accumulation coincides with negative funding, it often ends in a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to close positions and the price moves higher. However, that outcome is not guaranteed.”

Geopolitics remains a factor. Brent crude is up more than 22% in the past week after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global supply.

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“Hormuz tanker traffic is still down 92%, Goldman is warning oil could hit $100, and the curve is flattening again as the short end reprices inflation risk with the 2Y backing up to 3.51%,” said Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute in a note.

The surge in energy prices is feeding inflation concerns, prompting traders to reconsider interest-rate cut expectations. Bond markets are already reflecting that shift, with U.S. Treasury yields rising as investors price in the risk that inflation will remain elevated.

And don’t forget, there’s also the U.S. jobs report later today, which will also feed into the Fed’s interest-rate decisions. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

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What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February Est. 59K (Prev. 130K)
    • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. unemployment rate for February Est 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
    • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. average hourly earnings MoM for February Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 6: Metalpha (MATH), pre-market

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • No major governance votes & calls.
  • Unlocks
    • March 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.72% of its circulating supply worth around $288.77 million.
  • Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 1.15% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,398.30 (24hrs: -2.89%)
  • ETH is down 1.58% at $2,055.24 (24hrs: -3.01%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 1.22% at 2,008.56 (24hrs: -3.52%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 8 bps at 2.83%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.011% (-1.2209% annualized) on Binance
CD20 components
  • DXY is unchanged at 99.23
  • Gold futures are up 0.69% at $5,100.10
  • Silver futures are up 1.64% at $83.03
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.62% at 55,620.84
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.72% at 25,757.29
  • FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,415.70
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,760.30
  • DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.61% at 47,954.74
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.56% at 6,830.71
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.26% at 22,748.99
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.98% at 33,610.00
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 3.12% at 7,318.90
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 7 bps at 4.15%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,804.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,905.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 47,804.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.47% (-0.02%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (-0.24%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,026 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $30.66
  • Total fees: 2.75 BTC / $198,402
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 104,755 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 13.8 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.71%

Technical Analysis

Ta for March 6 20226
  • The ratio of altcoins (excluding top 10) to bitcoin is looking likely to close above the 50-week exponential moving average, implying no clear breakout for altcoinss relative to BTC.
  • With no clear RSI divergences it is unlikely we will see a sustained rally from the broader altcoin universe.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $205.71 (–1.54%), –0.40% at $204.89 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.73 (–6.61%), –0.70% at $22.57
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.77 (–5.60%), –0.91% at $8.69
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.60 (–5.63%), –0.71% at $15.49
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.00 (+1.01%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (–6.66%), –0.50% at $9.90
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $11.18 (–8.06%)
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.25 (–4.73%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.74 (+0.45%), –0.43% at $105.29
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.02 (–4.99%), unchanged at $35.00

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.81 (–4.53%), –0.30% at $139.39
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.25 (–3.85%)
  • Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.93 (–2.46%), –1.01% at $7.85
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.96 (–10.93%)
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (–7.38%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$227.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $55.7 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$90.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.74 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 5.68 million

Source: Farside Investors

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

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Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

Key takeaways:

  • Bearish sentiment is rising as Bitcoin options professional traders lose confidence that the $66,000 level will hold for long.

  • The exit of David Sacks as the Crypto and AI czar and a lack of a clear US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan added to investors’ doubts.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% decline from the $71,300 level seen on Thursday. This move wiped out over $210 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures and left most call (buy) options worthless during the $18.6 billion monthly expiry. Traders now anticipate a 53% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $66,000 by April 24.

April 24 Bitcoin option prices at Deribit. Source: Deribit

On Friday, the April 24 Bitcoin $66,000 put (sell) options traded at 0.0566 BTC or roughly $3,730. With a 53% implied probability of Bitcoin trading below $66,000 by late April, the mood remains decidedly bearish following the increased uncertainty in the US and Israel-Iran war, pushing traders into a risk-averse mode.

US inflation threats and stalling crypto, Bitcoin legislation

Rising oil prices and a potential $200 billion in extra US military spending led investors to demand higher returns on government bonds and dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest levels since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged to $100 on Friday, while 5-year Treasury yields reached 4.07%, up from 3.72% three weeks prior.

US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. S&P 500 (right). Source: TradingView

Inflationary fear and weaker corporate earnings perspectives alone cannot explain Bitcoin’s 20% underperformance against the S&P 500 in 2026. Other factors are likely at play, including investors’ discomfort over the lack of progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

David Sacks has stepped down from his role as the Trump administration’s crypto and AI czar. While Sacks remains an advisor on the President’s Council on Science & Technology, his departure follows earlier comments that inflated Bitcoin investors’ expectations. Sacks had previously hinted that the US could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without raising taxes.

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Related: US lawmakers publish crypto tax proposal without Bitcoin tax exemption

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% on Friday, showing that put options are trading at a significant premium relative to call instruments. In balanced market conditions, this metric usually ranges between -6% and +6%. The current level indicates a lack of conviction among whales that the $66,000 level will hold. Fear has largely dominated the Bitcoin options market since mid-January.

Bitcoin options expiry favored neutral-to-bearish strategies

Friday’s monthly options expiry at $68,610 proved unfavorable for neutral-to-bullish strategies, as 97% of call options became void. Bears gained the upper hand as put options at $69,000 or higher surpassed $2 billion in open interest. Critically, part of Friday’s downward move reflects a growing unwillingness among traders to maintain Bitcoin exposure over the weekend.

Crypto markets cut risk on Friday due to uncertainty. Source: X/WhalePanda

X social platform user WhalePanda, suggested that the crash in risk markets anticipates President Trump making “another dumb escalating move” after US markets close. Consequently, the current fear seen in the options market could reverse if no major geopolitical events occur before Monday.

During bearish cycles, traders often rush for the exits at the mere sight of any event that could be deemed negative. Investors should not take Bitcoin’s implied odds at face value, as these metrics are heavily impacted by recent news and headlines. However, expectations could shift more favorably if Iran effectively releases a counter-offer to the US peace proposal.