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Bitcoin ETFs hold billions after price crash, but resilience masks harsh reality

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Bitcoin ETFs hold billions after price crash, but resilience masks harsh reality

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to hold billions in assets despite bitcoin’s brutal price crash, but that staying power isn’t necessarily the bullish signal that many have come to believe.

According to one analyst, the resilience stems from market makers and arbitrageurs who trade in and out rather than die-hard long-term holders betting on price appreciation.

Bitcoin’s price peaked above $126,000 in early October and recently crashed to nearly $60,000. Despite the price halving, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have cumulatively registered just $8.5 billion in net outflows. These funds still hold $85 billion in assets under management, which equates to over 6% of bitcoin’s supply.

Several analysts, including those CoinDesk spoke with at Consensus Hong Kong last week, cited the same data as evidence of bullish positioning.

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Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, says the resilience comes not just from long-term hodlers, but from market makers and arbitrageurs with hedged, non-directional positions.

“This reflects the structural nature of ETF ownership, which is dominated by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds holding largely hedged positions, as well as long-term institutional investors with low turnover and longer investment horizons,” Thielen said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Thielen pointed to reports from institutions (called 13F filings) for late 2025. They show that 55% to 75% of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which holds $61 billion, is owned by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds who keep their bets hedged or neutral, not truly bullish on bitcoin.

Market makers are entities that create liquidity in an exchange’s order book, facilitating the seamless execution of large buy and sell orders at stable prices. They profit from the bid-ask spread and therefore strive to maintain market-neutral exposure to bypass price volatility risks. Similarly, arbitrage hedge funds take opposing positions in two markets, such as spot ETFs and futures, to profit from the price differential between the two.

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Both entities, therefore, do not inject directional pressures (bullish/bearish) into the market.

Thielen added that market makers trimmed exposure by around $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion during the fourth quarter, as bitcoin traded near $88,000, reflecting “declining speculative demand and reduced arbitrage inventory requirements.”

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Crypto World

Nevada Sues Kalshi After Appeals Court Greenlights Action

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Nevada Sues Kalshi After Appeals Court Greenlights Action

The US state of Nevada has sued Kalshi after the prediction market company lost its court challenge to stop the state’s regulator from taking action over its sports prediction markets.

The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit on Tuesday denied Kalshi’s bid to stop Nevada’s gaming regulator from taking action on its sports event contracts, removing a block on the regulator launching a civil suit against the company.

After the decision, the Nevada Gaming Control Board promptly filed a civil enforcement action in state court against Kalshi, which it said sought to block the company “from offering unlicensed wagering in violation of Nevada law.”

Kalshi swiftly filed a motion to have the suit heard in a federal court, repeating its long-held argument that it is “subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction” under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

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The appeals court order and subsequent lawsuit are a blow to Kalshi in its nearly year-long battle against Nevada to keep its sports contracts active in the state. The company and other prediction markets are facing multiple similar lawsuits from other states.

The company sued the state last year in March after receiving a cease-and-desist order to halt all sports-related markets within the state. In April, a federal court backed Kalshi’s bid to temporarily block Nevada from taking action amid court proceedings.

Source: Daniel Wallach 

Kalshi did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Nevada says Kalshi is flouting state law

In its latest lawsuit, the Nevada Gaming Control Board repeated its past claim that Kalshi’s sports event contracts meet the requirements to be licensed under state law, as they allow “users to wager on the outcomes of sporting events.”

Despite making wagers, sports betting and other gaming activities accessible in the State of Nevada, Kalshi is not licensed in Nevada and does not comply with Nevada gaming law, the regulator argued.

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In its federal court motion, Kalshi argued that such a claim means the court “must adopt a narrow interpretation” of federal commodity exchange laws, which it asserts it is regulated under by the CFTC.

CFTC chair asserts jurisdiction over prediction markets

Earlier on Tuesday, CFTC chair Mike Selig said his agency filed an amicus brief backing Crypto.com in a similar lawsuit the crypto exchange had brought against Nevada.

Crypto.com had sued Nevada’s regulators in June after similarly receiving a cease-and-desist letter. It also appealed to the Ninth Circuit in November after losing a federal court motion to block the state from taking action.

Related: Crypto lobby forms working group seeking prediction market clarity

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The CFTC argued in its brief to the Ninth Circuit that “states cannot invade the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over CFTC-regulated designated contract markets by re-characterizing swaps trading on DCMs as illegal gambling.”