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Bitcoin futures demand sinks to 2024 lows: Are institutions exiting?

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) staged a cautious recovery, rising roughly 10% from a Saturday retest near $63,000 as traditional markets moved in a contrasting direction amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The uptick offered a measure of relief for bulls, yet a closer inspection of the derivatives landscape revealed a more tepid appetite for risk among large players. Futures demand deteriorated to levels not seen since 2024, even as other channels indicated ongoing institutional exposure. Across major exchanges, open interest hovered around $32 billion on Sunday, a 20% retreat from a month earlier, signaling that leverage had begun to unwind even as traders remained engaged in the market.

The immediate price action has not resolved the longer-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears. While spot markets showed resilience, the futures market has shown signs of cooling off. The combination of a price rebound and waning futures interest paints a nuanced picture: institutions appear to be staying put, but with less aggressive positioning than in prior cycles. This divergence underscores a broader theme in crypto markets—steadfast core demand from long-term holders and institutions coexists with episodic volatility that tests short-term trading appetite.

The narrative around where institutional capital stands is further complicated by evidence from the options and futures segments. The average activity in Bitcoin futures remains robust in some respects, with notable players continuing to demonstrate an ongoing, if selective, appetite for exposure. Data from market analytics providers illustrate how the market is balancing risk and reward: while price momentum has faded from peak levels, the structural support from large holders and listed companies remains intact. In particular, the presence of significant on-chain holdings by publicly listed companies and steady ETF inflows suggests that institutions continue to anchor demand for Bitcoin even when leverage cools.

Market reaction and key details

The futures landscape shows a divergence between price action and leverage. The Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest on major exchanges declined to $32 billion on Sunday, marking a 20% decrease from the prior month. Even after adjusting for price moves, the measure signals cooling demand for long exposure in the near term. This cooling is not necessarily a retreat by institutions; rather, it may reflect a interim reassessment as market participants wait for clearer catalysts. In parallel, the annualized premium on Bitcoin monthly futures slipped to 2%, the lowest in roughly a year, underscoring a shift away from the exuberant bullish tilt that characterized earlier phases of the cycle.

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The premium, or basis rate, for monthly futures has historically tended to run higher than the spot price as a compensation for the longer settlement horizon. A typical neutral range would be roughly 5% to 10%. The fact that the basis has lingered around the 2% level for an extended period—spanning a year that included a 50% rally between April and May 2025—speaks to a market that has not consistently priced in outsized bullish momentum in the near term. This pattern aligns with a broader sentiment shift as investors weigh macro uncertainty and regulatory signals against the asset’s fixed-supply characteristics.

Despite these indicators, Bitcoin’s performance relative to traditional risk-on assets remains mixed. Bitcoin has underperformed Gold and equity indices in certain periods, prompting a recalibration of expectations among risk assets. However, there is still substantial evidence of ongoing institutional involvement. Bitcoin ETFs, for instance, trade in excess of $3 billion daily on average, a metric that highlights persistent demand from some of the world’s largest mutual and pension fund managers. This ETF activity provides a floor of demand that buffers the market against abrupt, full-on selling pressure.

On the on-chain front, publicly listed companies continue to accumulate Bitcoin, reinforcing a structural bid from corporate treasuries. Notable holders include Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). In total, more than $79 billion in Bitcoin sit on-chain with these entities, a level that argues against a wholesale retreat by institutions even if leverage is temporarily resting. Countries such as Bhutan, El Salvador, and the United Arab Emirates have also pursued exposure to Bitcoin, signaling a broader, albeit selective, alignment of public sector and corporate actors with the asset class.

Looking at derivatives more granularly, odds and hedges within the options market portray a resilient backdrop. The put-to-call premium for Bitcoin options has remained relatively tepid, hovering near 0.7, indicating a tilt toward upside bets rather than extensive bearish plays. This dynamic persisted even after a brief uptick in demand for bearish strategies on a single trading day, suggesting that the market did not sustain distress or systemic risk fears despite the recent volatility. The overarching message from the derivatives data is one of guarded resilience: hedging activity remains present, but there is no clear signal of a structural, multi-month downturn.

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The breadth of activity in the CME space further strengthens the sense that institutions have not exited the market. Open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME remains a meaningful indicator of institutional engagement, with around $7.5 billion still outstanding—a figure that underscores ongoing activity even as other indicators show cautious positioning. The balance between sell-side pressure and corresponding buy-side commitments continues to hold, implying that the market remains in a state of negotiated risk rather than a wholesale capitulation.

Taken together, the data points paint a picture of a market that is maneuvering through a transitional phase. Prices can still move higher as buyers re-enter on dips, but the persistent ceiling around prior all-time highs and the current fragility of some bullish signals suggest that any advance will likely require new catalysts—be it macro developments, regulatory clarity, or significant ETF inflows—to sustain momentum over the medium term. In this environment, Bitcoin remains a compelling case study in how a fixed-supply asset interacts with diversified institutional demand, market maturity, and evolving governance around digital assets.

Market context: The current stretch sits at the intersection of evolving macro dynamics, ETF flows, and a still-developing institutional landscape for digital assets. While price action has improved, the rhythm of hedges, open interest, and basis rates points to a market that is absorbing shocks more gracefully than in earlier cycles, aided by steady on-chain and ETF-backed demand and a continued, selective institutional footprint.

Why it matters

The ongoing interplay between price performance and derivatives signals matters for traders, investors, and builders in the crypto space. A sustained price rally absent corresponding growth in futures open interest would risk overheating risk controls; conversely, a sustained level of open interest alongside a steady price path would indicate durable institutional interest. The presence of large corporate holders and persistent ETF inflows punctuates the story: institutions are not pulling out, even if they are not aggressively leveraging, and this could influence how market participants price risk, allocate capital, and plan for liquidity in stressed conditions.

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From a systemic perspective, the divergence between spot strength and derivatives caution underscores a nuanced market maturity. As crypto markets evolve, the willingness of major funds and companies to allocate crypto exposure—through direct balance-sheet purchases, public equity-linked holdings, or ETF participation—shapes a pathway toward broader, steadier adoption. The data also suggest that while the friction points—volatility, basis rates, and short-term momentum—may persist, the underlying demand from institutional layers remains a critical anchor for liquidity and price discovery in a market that still holds a relatively small share of global financial allocations.

What to watch next

  • Monitor CME open interest and overall futures activity for the next 2–4 weeks to gauge whether institutions maintain exposure or begin to recalibrate risk after recent volatility.
  • Watch Bitcoin’s price action around key support levels (e.g., $60k) to see if the current bounce sustains or falters.
  • Track ETF inflows and new listings to assess whether institutional demand seeds a renewed price floor or accelerates upside momentum.
  • Observe on-chain accumulation trends by publicly listed companies and major corporate holders for signs of renewed balance-sheet strategy shifts.
  • Follow regulatory developments and macro catalysts that could reframe risk sentiment for digital assets and related products.

Sources & verification

  • Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest data from CoinGlass showing $32 billion, down 20% from a month prior.
  • Bitcoin monthly futures annualized premium data from Laevitas.ch indicating a 2% level—the lowest in a year.
  • Information on Bitcoin ETFs trading over $3 billion per day on average and the involvement of large mutual/pension fund managers.
  • On-chain and corporate holdings context, including public-company BTC ownership (Strategy/MSTR, MARA, XXI, MPLTF).
  • Derivatives signals, including put-to-call premiums near 0.7 on Deribit (source: Laevitas.ch and Deribit data).

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Ethereum Price and BitMine Shares Jump 10% After Latest Treasury Buy

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Ethereum Price and BitMine Shares Jump 10% After Latest Treasury Buy

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) just doubled down on Ethereum, fueling bullish price predictions.

The publicly traded treasury added 50,928 ETH last week, spending about $103 million. The move sparked a 9% jump in BMNR shares and lined up with a strong bounce in Ethereum’s spot price.

With this buy, BitMine now holds 4,473,587 ETH, roughly 3.71% of the total circulating supply. That is not passive exposure. It is an aggressive accumulation strategy, even with market conditions still shaky.

Key Takeaways:
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  • BitMine added 50,928 ETH to its balance sheet, raising total holdings to roughly $9 billion.
  • BMNR shares surged over 9% following the disclosure, outperforming broader market indices.
  • The firm is now staking over 3 million ETH, projecting estimated annualized revenues of up to $172 million.

BitMine Pursues ‘Alchemy of 5%’ Despite Paper Losses

BitMine’s latest buy is part of a bigger mission. The company wants control of 5% of Ethereum’s total supply, which Chairman Tom Lee calls the “alchemy of 5%.”

Lee framed the recent dip as an opportunity, arguing that ETH fundamentals are stronger than price suggests. Even with roughly $7.7 billion in unrealized losses on paper, leadership is not backing off. They see Ethereum as core financial infrastructure, not just a speculative asset.

Source: Blockworks

The difference is strategy. BitMine is not just holding ETH. It is staking aggressively. The firm claims to have staked more ETH than any other entity and expects an annual yield of more than $253 million once its Made in America Validator Network goes fully live in 2026.

That active yield model separates it from passive treasury plays. It turns ETH into a productive balance sheet asset rather than idle reserves.

This push mirrors broader institutional moves into crypto infrastructure. While retail remains cautious, corporate players are building quietly.

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For traders, $2,100 is the key level. If Ethereum reclaims it and BitMine keeps buying weekly, that steady demand could act as a structural floor heading into the next cycle.

BMNR Shares Break Out as ETH Holds $2,000

The market reacted fast.

BitMine shares (NYSE: BMNR) jumped more than 9% after the disclosure, as investors leaned into the company’s heavier exposure to a potential Ethereum rebound. At the same time, ETH bounced to around $2,037, trying to stabilize after a roughly 22% monthly slide.

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Source: BMNRUSD / TradingView

Traders read the treasury purchase as a high-conviction signal. Volume picked up across both the stock and ETH, tightening the correlation between BMNR and spot prices.

At this point, BMNR is effectively trading as a leveraged proxy for Ethereum. When ETH moves, the stock is likely to amplify that move in either direction.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

The post Ethereum Price and BitMine Shares Jump 10% After Latest Treasury Buy appeared first on Cryptonews.

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New ChatGPT Predicts the Price of XRP, Solana and Shiba Inu By the End of 2026

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New ChatGPT Predicts the Price of XRP, Solana and Shiba Inu By the End of 2026

News feeds may be rocked by war news, but markets are weathering it; ChatGPT even predicts a strong year ahead for XRP, SOL and SHIB HODLers.

It seems the market already priced in war news during the downturns following Trump’s previous threats of US military escalation on Greenland and Iran earlier in the year.

Given all the uncertainties, however, just how likely are ChatGPT’s forecasts?

XRP ($XRP): ChatGPT Predicts a Clean 7x Surge by Christmas

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In a recent update, Ripple reiterated that XRP ($XRP) remains fundamental to its vision to transform the XRP Ledger (XRPL) into a global, enterprise-grade payments network.

New ChatGPT Predicts the Price of XRP, Solana and Shiba Inu By the End of 2026
Source: ChatGPT

Powered by elite infrastructure, instant settlement and minimal fees, XRPL is likely to capitalise greatly on two of crypto’s fastest-expanding niches: stablecoins and tokenised real-world assets.

With XRP currently trading around $1.41, ChatGPT projects a potential rally toward $10 in 2026, a move that would represent 7x for current holders.

Technical indicators also support upward movement. XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) hovers near 44, while price action has stabilised around the 30-day moving average, hinting the prolonged consolidation phase may be over

Additional bullish catalysts could include growing institutional participation following the rollout of U.S.-listed XRP ETFs, Ripple’s expanding global partnership network, and improved regulatory clarity if the CLARITY bill passes in the U.S. this year.

Solana (SOL): Will Solana Double ATH Soon?

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Solana ($SOL) hosts $6.5 billion in total value locked (TVL) and carries a market capitalisation of $51 billion.

Institutional demand grew after the recent launch of Solana exchange-traded funds from major asset managers, including Bitwise and Grayscale.

Even so, SOL suffered a deep correction in late 2025 and spent much of February trading below the $100 level.

Under ChatGPT’s most optimistic scenario, Solana could climb from its current price near $89 to roughly $600 by Christmas. Such a move would deliver close 7x upside and double Solana’s all-time high (ATH) of $293, recorded in January 2025.

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Further reinforcing Solana’s outlook, asset management giants such as Franklin Templeton and BlackRock are actively issuing tokenised assets on the network, underscoring the network’s headstart as a scalable, institution-friendly blockchain.

Shiba Inu (SHIB): ChatGPT AI Predicts a Possible 2,000% Rally

Launched in 2020 as a playful parody of Dogecoin, Shiba Inu ($SHIB) has since evolved into a multi-faceted ecosystem with a market capitalisation around $3.4 billion.

At its current price near $0.0000057, ChatGPT’s analysis indicates that a decisive breakout above the $0.000025–$0.00003 resistance zone could ignite strong bullish momentum, potentially driving SHIB toward $0.00012 before year-end.

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That scenario would imply eye watering gains of around 21x (+2,000%), placing SHIB above its October 2021 ATH of $0.00008616.

Beyond meme coin hype, the project offers real utility. Shiba Inu’s Ethereum Layer-2 solution, Shibarium, offers faster transactions, lower fees, enhanced privacy and a more developer-friendly environment.

Maxi Doge: Early-Stage Meme Coin Targets Explosive Growth

According to ChatGPT, Shiba Inu’s likelihood of a 21x run indicates strong conviction that a bull market could usher the start of meme season. However, newer stage meme coins offer more room for growth

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One such buzzy new project is Maxi Doge ($MAXI). It has already raised $4.7 million during its ongoing presale, as early investors stack what some are calling the next Dogecoin.

Maxi Doge is Dogecoin’s louder, more aggressive gym-bro cousin, driven by envy and fuelled by a viral degen marketing strategy that taps into the chaotic energy of the 2021 meme coin cycle.

MAXI is an ERC-20 token on Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network, offering a significantly lower environmental footprint compared to Dogecoin’s proof-of-work architecture.

Early presale buyers can currently stake MAXI for yields of up to 67% APY, with rewards gradually decreasing as the staking pool expands.

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The token is $0.0002806 in the current presale stage, with automatic price increases programmed at each funding milestone. Purchases are supported via wallets such as MetaMask and Best Wallet.

Stay updated through Maxi Doge’s official X and Telegram pages.

Visit the Official Website Here.

The post New ChatGPT Predicts the Price of XRP, Solana and Shiba Inu By the End of 2026 appeared first on Cryptonews.

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How Bitcoin’s Shift to Digital Gold Was Fueled by Institutions

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How Bitcoin’s Shift to Digital Gold Was Fueled by Institutions

Bitcoin, and eventually broader crypto, was steered away from being a decentralized alternative to the state and toward integration into the very financial system it was meant to replace.

In an interview, Aaron Day, co-founder of Daylight Freedom, a foundation dedicated to financial sovereignty and individual liberty, reached this conclusion based on his personal experiences with Bitcoin. 

Questioning Bitcoin’s Original Mission

Nowadays, Bitcoin is best known for its non-sovereign, censorship-resistant characteristics. For several years now, the crypto community has touted the asset as akin to gold, albeit digital. 

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Day, an outspoken critic of cryptocurrencies and a libertarian thinker, once thought this too. 

That’s why he started using Bitcoin as early as 2012. However, he soon started to realize that its narrative was in a constant state of transformation– one that parted ways with its self-proclaimed decentralized nature.

His persistent remarks on social media and sharp criticisms of some of the industry’s most powerful companies have inevitably made some paint him as a conspiracy theorist. 

However, his long trajectory as a crypto user in the space, paired with the research he conducts as a fellow at the Brownstone Institute, provides a perspective that’s hard to dismiss, especially amid Bitcoin’s broader mainstream adoption.

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New Hampshire as a Bitcoin Testing Ground

When Day, a New Hampshire resident, started using Bitcoin 15 years ago, many restaurants and shops accepted it directly. It already functioned as a spendable digital currency. 

In many ways, the state was a breeding ground for this type of activity. 

Known as the “Live Free or Die” region, New Hampshire also became the home of the Free State Project, a nonprofit political migration movement founded in 2001 that successfully relocated roughly 20,000 free thinkers to the area, aiming to concentrate them in a low-population state.

Day was the Chairman of that project, and by virtue of his beliefs, he became attracted to Bitcoin’s potential.

“Back [in 2012], mostly conferences were about how Bitcoin was going to be used as an alternative to central banks, how it was going to be something that solved the problem of the 2008 financial crisis, [and] how it was going to be a tool that didn’t require intermediaries or third parties. This is how I got introduced to it,” Day told BeInCrypto during a podcast episode. 

However, despite its early adoption in his city, the narrative began to shift by 2017. According to him, it soon became unusable. 

“All of a sudden, the fees went through the roof. We went from transactions being finalized in seconds to days. It lost its fundamental utility, which is to be something that anyone anywhere in the world could engage in voluntary transactions without third parties,” he added.

Though that was Day’s original frustration with the currency, it soon only represented the tip of the iceberg.

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A Narrative Shift From Cash to Store of Value

When Day started using Bitcoin, it was seen as just another form of currency for everyday transactions with decentralized advantages. It was never perceived as anything else. 

“People weren’t talking about primarily as being digital gold. It’s something you just hold and save and don’t spend. It’s not in the title of the whitepaper, this is not the behavior and function of Bitcoin,” he explained.

These changes coincided with the rise of Layer 2 solutions in crypto. These secondary protocols, built on top of the primary blockchain, are designed to significantly increase transaction speeds and reduce fees. Protocols like Segregated Witness (SegWit) and Lightning Network became particularly popular at the time. 

While many developers argued these upgrades were necessary technical trade-offs, Day interpreted them differently. 

In his view, the technical debate around scaling was inseparable from a broader structural shift happening behind the scenes — one related to who was funding Bitcoin’s development.

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From Non-Profit Backing to Institutional Influence

In 2012, the Bitcoin Foundation, a non-profit organization, was established in the United States to promote Bitcoin use and protect the integrity of the project. It also supported Bitcoin’s earliest core developers. 

Three years later, however, the organization collapsed amid internal turmoil and financial difficulties. 

Shortly afterward, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Media Lab, through its Digital Currency Initiative —directed by Jeffrey Epstein-linked Joi Ito— began funding several Bitcoin core developers.

Current staff at the MIT Media Lab Digital Currency Initiative. Source: MIT.

To many in the ecosystem, this was a practical solution. Bitcoin was an open-source protocol without a formal corporate sponsor. Developers needed funding to continue their work.

But for Day, the timing raised questions.

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“MIT took over, and then some of the same developers that were working on things like SegWit and Lightning Network, essentially hobbling Bitcoin as peer-to-peer cash and moving to this Bitcoin is digital gold narrative.”

As Bitcoin’s scalability issues became more apparent and the network’s future development was increasingly steered by well-funded institutional interests, the project’s decentralized nature began to erode.

Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has become extensively integrated in infrastructure directly tied to traditional, centralized banking. Exchange-traded funds tied to the asset, institutional custody, and nation-state reserves have since entered the conversation. 

Day questioned whether this trajectory was inevitable or the result of structural forces that redirected Bitcoin’s original mission. 

“I think at the end of this, the longer it goes on, the more it’s pretty clear that all of crypto has been hijacked,” he concluded. 

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Is a 75% Crash Next?

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SHIB Burn Rate


Further decline or a revival: what’s next for the self-proclaimed Dogecoin killer?

The situation for the second-largest meme coin has worsened recently, following a double-digit slide over the past 14 days.

Some worrying factors suggest Shiba Inu (SHIB) could experience a further collapse in the near future, while one popular analyst predicted it might crash to a five-year low.

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The Free Fall is Yet to Happen?

While Shiba Inu enjoyed some notable surges last year, 2026 has been nothing but painful. As of this writing, it trades at around $0.000005467 (per CoinGecko’s data), representing a whopping 60% plunge on a yearly scale.

Its market cap has tumbled to roughly $3.2 billion, further widening the gap with niche frontrunner Dogecoin (DOGE), which maintains a capitalization of more than $15 billion.

According to Ali Martinez, SHIB might be on the verge of a crash to as low as $0.00000138. This is not the first time the analyst has warned about such a scenario. Last month, he noted that the meme coin dropped below the important level of $0.00000667, claiming this could have opened the door to a meltdown to the aforementioned zone.

Shiba Inu’s burning mechanism also signals that a further pullback may be on the way. Over the past 24 hours, the burn rate has decreased by approximately 99% after only 20,176 SHIB were sent to a null address.

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SHIB Burn RateSHIB Burn Rate
SHIB Burn Rate, Source: shibburn.com

The program’s ultimate goal is to reduce the meme coin’s overall supply, potentially making it more valuable in time (assuming demand remains constant or heads north). It was adopted in 2022, and since then, the team and community have destroyed more than 410.7 trillion tokens, leaving 585.47 trillion in circulation.

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SHIB SupplySHIB Supply
SHIB Supply, Source: shibburn.com

The stalled progress of Shibarium is also a bearish factor. Shiba Inu’s layer-2 scaling solution saw the light of day in the summer of 2023 and aims to foster the project’s development by lowering transaction fees, improving speed, and enhancing scalability. It suffered an exploit in September last year, which shook investor trust and caused widespread damage across the Shiba Inu ecosystem. Prior to the incident, daily transactions processed on Shibarium were in the millions, while after that, they plummeted to mere thousands.

Shibarium TransactionsShibarium Transactions
Shibarium Transactions, Source: shibariumscan.io

The Bullish Signals

Even as the meme coin struggles and the broader crypto market is under pressure, SHIB’s supply on centralized exchanges keeps shrinking. According to CryptoQuant’s data, those reserves fell below 81 trillion tokens, the lowest point since May 2021.

SHIB Exchange Reserves
SHIB Exchange Reserves, Source: CryptoQuant

The development could be interpreted as a positive sign because it suggests that investors are in no rush to move their holdings to such platforms: a move often seen as a pre-sale step.

Meanwhile, Shiba Inu’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) briefly plunged below 30, indicating the asset has entered oversold territory and could be due for a resurgence. The technical analysis tool runs from 0 to 100, and conversely, ratios above 70 suggest SHIB could be overbought and gearing up for a possible correction. As of this writing, the RSI stands at roughly 36, or much closer to the bullish zone.

SHIB RSISHIB RSI
SHIB RSI, Source: CryptoWaves
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Seized Crypto Lapses Push South Korea to Enforce Tighter National Controls

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • South Korea launched a nationwide audit to strengthen controls over seized crypto assets.
  • The Finance Ministry and financial regulators reviewed storage methods and internal access procedures.
  • Officials aimed to identify weak practices and introduce stronger technical safeguards.
  • Police in Gangnam lost 22 BTC after giving custody to an external firm without private key control.
  • The National Tax Service apologized after exposing recovery phrases that led to a major theft.

South Korea moved fast to reinforce digital asset controls as officials addressed recent security failures, and the government ordered urgent checks across agencies, and leaders demanded strict oversight to prevent further losses.

Audit of Seized Crypto Holdings

South Korea launched a nationwide audit after new directives reshaped digital asset management practices. Authorities examined seized coins across agencies and reviewed storage controls. The Finance Ministry coordinated the process with the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service. Officials targeted holdings gained through tax and criminal cases.

Officials reviewed hardware wallets and custodial accounts and assessed access controls. They said the audit aimed to expose weak procedures and guide new protections. Leaders stated that agencies must “fix system gaps fast” to stop unauthorized transfers. They also confirmed that operational reports will go directly to senior oversight teams.

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Police losses in Gangnam triggered stronger demands for new custody rules. Investigators confirmed that officers lost 22 BTC after handing assets to an outside firm. Officials said the officers never controlled private keys, which raised concerns about current arrangements. Regulators asked agencies to track crypto flows better.

A separate error at the National Tax Service pushed the government to act. The agency disclosed recovery phrases in a public release. Thieves drained most of a $5.6 million holding, and leaders called the failure preventable. The agency apologized and began internal checks.

Legal and Structural Shifts in South Korea

The Supreme Court of Korea ruled in January that exchange-held Bitcoin qualifies as property. This decision cleared earlier confusion over enforcement powers. Officials said the ruling eased asset seizure procedures. They added that agencies can pursue digital holdings more quickly under clear rules.

The government continued updating its Digital Asset Basic Act. Phase two will impose rules for stablecoin reserves and investor protection.  Officials said the updates will strengthen oversight for market players. They also confirmed that agencies will publish final provisions soon.

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Regulators ended a nine-year block on corporate crypto trading in February. They allowed listed firms and professional traders to reenter markets. Authorities said new compliance rules will govern trading activities. They will also monitor corporate flows under updated reporting systems.

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Bitcoin Holds $66,000 as Market Braces for March Rebound

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Crypto Breaking News

Key Takeaways

  • Tom Lee sees March rebound for crypto and US stocks
  • Bitcoin trades at $66K despite Middle East tension
  • Ethereum holds near $1,950 as BitMine keeps buying
  • Oil jumps 13% while US futures slip lower
  • Lee links gold strength to broader market shift

Bitcoin trades at $66,000 after rebounding from weekend lows near $63,000. The asset has gained over 5% from its recent dip. Tom Lee expects a broader market recovery in March despite geopolitical pressure.

He shared his outlook during a recent CNBC interview. Lee stated that March could mark a turnaround month for risk assets. He added that economic growth remains intact despite current fears.

Tensions in the Middle East triggered sharp weekend volatility. Military strikes targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader sparked retaliatory action. Consequently, markets reacted with swift liquidations and price swings.

Data shows that long liquidations reached nearly $300 million. However, the broader market absorbed the shock without extended panic. Therefore, Bitcoin stabilized quickly above key support levels.

Meanwhile, oil prices jumped 13% to $82 per barrel. This level marks the highest price since July 2024. Rising energy costs added pressure to global equity markets.

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US equity index futures declined following the developments. The S&P 500 futures fell 1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.5%. Even so, Lee believes the worst selling could occur this week.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Why is the crypto market going up today? (March 2)

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Top gainers in the crypto market

The crypto market is going up today, March 2, even as the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East escalated.

Summary

  • The crypto market remained stable on Monday even as the war in Iran started.
  • This rally happened as the economic impact of the crisis remained limited.
  • The crypto recovery could be a dead-cat bounce, a situation where a falling asset rebounds temporarily.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to nearly $70,000, while Ethereum (ETH) jumped to $2,065. Other top gainers were coins like Near Protocol, Morpho, Virtuals Protocol, Jupiter, and Pudgy Penguins. The market capitalization of all coins jumped to over $2.38 trillion.

Top gainers in the crypto market
Top gainers in the crypto market | Source: CoinMarketCap

The crypto market rose as the economic impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East remained muted. For example, the Dow Jones Index retreated by just 140 points, while the Nasdaq 100 erased earlier losses and turned positive for the day.

Crude oil price gains were also lower than expected, with Brent settling at $78 and the West Texas Intermediate rising to $73. The two benchmarks were expected to rise to over $100 as the war started.

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A likely reason for the crypto market rally is the inverse of buying the rumors and selling the news. In this case, investors dumped Bitcoin and other coins ahead of the war, and are now buying the news.

At the same time, the crypto market is going up as traders predict that the United States, Iran, and Israel will reach a ceasefire in the near term. Odds of a ceasefire happening by March 31st rose to 46%. Similarly, the odds of it happening by April 30 rose to 66%.

The crypto market is going up after the relatively strong US macro data. According to S&P Global, the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.4 in January to 51 in February. Another report by ISM showed that the manufacturing PMI rose from 51.7 to 52.4 in the same period.

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Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Tom Lee’s BitMine continued accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum last week. BitMine accumulated over 50k ETH, while Strategy bought over 3,000 Bitcoin. These purchases have continued even as these companies have experienced billions in losses. 

Still, there is also a likelihood that the ongoing crypto market rally is a dead-cat bounce. A DCB is a situation where a falling asset rebounds briefly and then resumes the downtrend.

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Are Investors Giving Up on BTC?

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Are Investors Giving Up on BTC?

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin futures demand has hit its lowest level since 2024, signaling that many institutional traders are staying cautious.

  • Despite lower confidence from bulls, high CME open interest suggests that major institutions have not left the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has gained 10% since retesting $63,000 on Saturday, providing a glimpse of hope for bulls as stock markets moved in a different direction amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, demand for Bitcoin futures has been declining, with open interest reaching its lowest levels since 2024. This trend is causing traders to fear that institutional investors are leaving the market.

BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest on major exchanges declined to $32 billion on Sunday, down 20% from one month prior. Even if measured in Bitcoin terms to adjust for the recent price decline, the current demand for BTC futures stood at the lowest level since August 2024 at 491,300 BTC. Part of this decline can be explained by the forced liquidations of bulls who were caught by surprise.

The demand for leveraged bullish positions has been largely absent since the $126,200 all-time high in October 2025.

BTC two-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The annualized premium (basis rate) on Bitcoin monthly futures contracts dropped to its lowest level in a year at 2%. Under neutral conditions, the metric should range from 5% to 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. Even more concerning is the fact that the basis rate has failed to sustain bullish levels for the past 12 months, a period that happens to include a 50% rally April to May 2025.

Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and the stock market has likely shifted investors’ attention away from the cryptocurrency market. Still, it would be far-fetched to claim that institutional investors have exited the market, given that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade over $3 billion per day on average. Among the ETF holders are some of the world’s largest mutual and pension fund managers.

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Moreover, there are over $79 billion in Bitcoin held onchain by publicly listed companies, including Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US) and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). Countries such as Bhutan, El Salvador and the United Arab Emirates have also added Bitcoin exposure. One could argue that there is still a long way to go in terms of institutional adoption, but the present situation is very far from zero.

Bitcoin derivatives signal resilience as bulls hesitate

The Bitcoin options market confirms that derivatives continue to function as expected despite repeated failures to reclaim the $72,000 level.

BTC options put-to-call premiums at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin put-to-call options premium stayed near 0.7 on Monday. This shows that demand for put (sell) options is lower than for call (buy) options. A brief jump in demand for bearish strategies on Friday did not last. Essentially, the options market shows no signs of major trouble or lasting stress from the past few months.

Related: Bitcoin holders show ‘zero panic’ as BTC hits $70K amid Middle East tensions

Derivatives data also shows a lack of confidence among bulls, especially since Bitcoin is trading 45% below its all-time high. However, there is no evidence that institutional players have left the market. The $7.5 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest on the CME is a clear sign of institutional activity. Despite the selling pressure, every short (sell) order must be matched by a long (buy) order, which keeps the market balanced.

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Eventually, fear and uncertainty fade as more buyers return, marking the end of a downward trend. While it is unclear if $60,000 was the absolute bottom for this market cycle, Bitcoin has again shown it is a secure asset with a fixed supply. The $1.4 trillion cryptocurrency market has proven its strength and shows no signs of failing.