Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Bitcoin Holders Unfazed as BTC Reaches $70K Amid Middle East Tensions

Published

on

Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin (BTC) (CRYPTO: BTC) edged up toward $70,000 on Monday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cast a long shadow over risk assets. Despite the macro jitters, on-chain metrics painted a mixed picture: short-term holder selling pressure cooled, while derivatives activity revealed a broader deleveraging backdrop. The latest data suggest that recent buyers have withdrawn some of their downside risk, even as price tested key liquidity zones near the round-number milestone.

Key takeaways

  • Short-term holder losses to exchanges fell to 3,700 BTC on March 1, against a backdrop of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, while Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $63,000 in that window. The release indicates a drop in panic-sell behavior from newer entrants compared with the February capitulation episode.
  • Bitcoin’s spot and derivatives dynamics show divergent patterns: spot buy-side delta remained positive across major venues (Binance, Coinbase, OKX), while open interest on major exchanges slipped in early 2024, signaling deleveraging rather than blanket selloffs.
  • Derivatives metrics point to a marked contraction in leverage: Binance open interest fell from roughly 130,800 BTC to about 97,680 BTC since the start of the year, a roughly 25% retreat, paired with a leverage ratio near 0.146 for the week—levels historically linked to tighter risk conditions.
  • The price action is flirting with a crucial external liquidity pocket between $70,000 and $71,500, a zone that could catalyze a move toward $80,000 if buyers marshal sufficient momentum. The monthly RVWAP, anchored in the high-$60k range, remains a reference point for holders with gains on the month.
  • Market observers note that the most event-driven holders have paused distribution, with some analysts cautioning that a sustained breakout will depend on whether realized losses stay contained amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Positive. The current price action suggests that diminished loss-driven selling and renewed spot demand are underpinning the push toward the $70k area, even as the market remains attentive to external risk factors.

Market context: The recent price move unfolds in a background of reduced leverage and a preference for liquidity accumulation, as traders weigh geopolitical developments against ongoing macro uncertainty and shifting risk sentiment.

Advertisement

Why it matters

The latest on-chain signals indicate that the sell pressure from newer entrants has eased, potentially reducing the risk of a rapid capitulation under continued geopolitical pressure. This dynamic matters for both traders and long-term holders; it suggests that a break above the current liquidity zone could be self-reinforcing, drawing in more buy orders as supply/demand imbalances shift toward equilibrium.

From a market structure perspective, the combination of lower short-term losses flowing to exchanges and a cooling in leverage points to a transitional moment. A sustained move through the $70,000–$71,500 region may invite further participation from both retail and institutions, particularly if volatility remains contained and market depth improves on major platforms. The monthly RVWAP near the high-$60k area acts as a barometer for whether the current rally has a firm base or remains a conditional lift tied to external risk events.

However, the risk narrative remains intact. Analysts have highlighted that the most event-sensitive holders have not accelerated distribution, implying that the market could remain sensitive to headlines. If realized losses reaccelerate toward prior capitulation levels, any upside could prove fragile, with volatility potentially re-emerging as geopolitical tensions evolve. In that context, the current price move is as much about macro risk sentiment as it is about technical setup and on-chain behavior.

What to watch next

  • Monitor the $70,000–$71,500 liquidity pocket; a clean hold above this zone could invite a test of the $80,000 area where prior supply capped upside in January.
  • Track realized loss dynamics in coming days to assess whether losses stay contained or reaccelerate, potentially reigniting selling pressure.
  • Watch open interest trends on major derivatives venues for hints of ongoing deleveraging or renewed speculation.
  • Observe spot delta across exchanges for signs of renewed bid strength or weakening demand as macro headlines evolve.
  • Stay alert to macro/regulatory signals and geopolitical updates, as any escalation could reintroduce volatility into the short-term horizon.

Sources & verification

  • Short-term holder loss transfers to exchanges data from CryptoQuant, including March 1 figures (3,700 BTC) and the February capitulation window (89,000 BTC).
  • Binance open interest and leverage ratio data from CryptoQuant, noting a drop to 97,680 BTC from 130,800 BTC and a weekly average leverage ratio of 0.146.
  • Market commentary on liquidity pockets and HTF (high-timeframe) liquidity zones from trader analyses, including observations on range highs around 70–73K.
  • Spot flow data across exchanges indicating positive delta for BTC on Binance, Coinbase, and OKX during the breakout window.
  • Technical references to price action around the Monthly RVWAP and the potential implications for annualized gains and positioning strategies.

Bitcoin’s price action tests liquidity pockets as markets weigh geopolitical risk

Bitcoin (BTC) (CRYPTO: BTC) moved toward the $70,000 mark as the Middle East conflict risk intensified, testing the market’s readiness to absorb shocks without a wholesale withdrawal from risk assets. The on-chain narrative shows a stabilizing pattern on the back of decreasing shorts, as shorter-term holders appear to be taking a step back from the frenetic distribution that characterized earlier selloffs. On-chain metrics reveal that realized losses among short-term holders dropped to 3,700 BTC on March 1, even as Bitcoin’s price slid to roughly $63,000 during the same window.

In a comparison to early February, the February 5–6 period saw a much larger capitulation event, with 89,000 BTC moving to exchanges at a realized loss. Since then, the pace of loss-driven inflows has softened, suggesting a cooling in immediate panic. MorenoDV, a crypto analyst, noted that the most event-sensitive holders did not accelerate distributions and described a state of “zero panic”—a signal that the market may be pausing to reassess risk amid ongoing tensions. The crucial takeaway is that the current sell-off impulse appears less aggressive than the February episode, though the risk of renewed selling hangs on the trajectory of external developments.

Advertisement

Derivatives markets paint a nuanced picture. CryptoQuant data show that the BTC derivatives landscape has undergone a meaningful deleveraging, with Binance open interest retreating from roughly 130,800 BTC to 97,680 BTC since the start of the year—a 25% contraction. The estimated leverage ratio hovered around 0.146 on a weekly basis, a level that historically aligns with tighter market conditions as positions are unwound. This backdrop implies that the recent price action may be sustained by a reduction in speculative risk rather than a broad-based rally driven by fresh leverage.

From a price-structure viewpoint, Bitcoin is testing a nearby external liquidity pocket spanning $70,000 to $71,500. A break above this band could set the stage for an expansion toward the $80,000 region, where previous supply constraints left a ceiling in January. Market chatter highlighted that higher-timeframe liquidity pools, especially near the range highs around 70–73K, tend to act as magnets when they accumulate size. The practical implication is that the next significant move may hinge on whether buyers can defend the lower boundary of this pocket and push through to the next milestone.

Spot activity supports a bullish tilt more than a purely speculative push. Data indicating positive delta across Binance, Coinbase, and OKX suggests that demand is anchored in real purchases rather than purely derivatives-driven play. If this spot bid strength persists and the deleveraging trend continues, the market may be better equipped to absorb adverse headlines without a fresh cascade of selling. Yet even with these positive signals, traders remain cognizant of the regulatory and macro uncertainty that can abruptly alter the risk calculus for crypto markets.

The broader market context remains reserved. While risk assets have occasionally benefited from a calmer liquidity backdrop, the ongoing geopolitical situation remains a major variable. As investors scan for guidance, the balance between on-chain signals—lower loss transfers and reduced leverage—and macro headlines will likely dictate whether Bitcoin can convert current strength into a durable uptrend or revert to a consolidative phase.

Advertisement

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders See New Lows Coming as Gold Enters Bear Market

Published

on

Bitcoin Traders See New Lows Coming as Gold Enters Bear Market

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week facing fresh macro risks as gold plummets and traders wait for $50,000.

  • BTC price action ends the week below a key trend line, and traders see little more than an early-week bounce for bulls.

  • Price looks more and more like it is repeating January’s bear flag — and targets now call for new multiyear lows.

  • Gold enters a technical bear market and oil returns to $100 as Iran tensions continue.

  • Traders start to consider Fed rate hikes in 2026, but history could still offer risk assets some relief.

  • Bitcoin’s long-term holders have been selling at a loss throughout March.

Bitcoin weekly close loses 200-week trend line

After a rough weekend, Bitcoin struggled to reclaim support as TradFi traders returned to start the week.

Data from TradingView shows price dipping to near $67,400 into the weekly close, which lost control of the key 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) trend line.

Analysis previously saw a close above the 200-week EMA, currently at $68,300, as key to protecting bulls going forward.

Advertisement
BTC/USD one-hour chart with 200-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In his latest X analysis on BTC price action released on Sunday, trader CrypNuevo forecast that the market would continue to hinge on geopolitics.

“It feels like we’ll be stuck in this range for the next month too,” he summarized.

“We could see some conflict escalation (uncertainty) next week that could trigger a new visit to the range lows where an interesting 4h long wick still sits there.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

CrypNuevo referred to Bitcoin’s sub-$60,000 swing low seen in early February.

“In LTF, I’ll be favoring a potential price rotation to $65k next week,” he continued about low time frames. 

“I’d like to position for this around $70k if we see a short-lived push to the upside at the start of the week. But with caution, because acceptance above $71k would invalidate it and I’d long to $73k-$74k.”

Crypto liquidation history (screeshot). Source: CoinGlass

Liquidations stayed high into Monday, with over $400 million erased over 24 hours, per data from CoinGlass.

With liquidity stacked above price, trader Castillo Trading eyed a potential short squeeze to take it.

Commenting on the latest price moves, meanwhile, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant hinted that the weekend’s downside volatility was nothing out of the ordinary.

“During weekends, institutional participation declines significantly, and spot-driven demand—especially from ETF flows—effectively pauses. As a result, the market becomes more dependent on derivatives positioning and short-term liquidity conditions,” contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post. 

“Lower liquidity also amplifies price sensitivity. With thinner order books, relatively small sell orders can trigger larger price movements, often leading to cascading effects such as stop-loss activation or liquidation events.”

BTC Sunday price action (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

XWIN stressed that weekend price action “should not be interpreted as a signal of trend continuation or reversal.”

Traders eye January bear flag breakdown repeat

For Bitcoin bulls, history risks repeating itself already this week — and just like before, bears appear to be in the driving seat.

Concerns revolve around another bear flag pattern currently playing out on the daily chart.

Advertisement

Here, a macro downtrend is punctuated by a period of relief, giving some the impression that the trend has reversed. Price then drops through the bottom of the flag and the downtrend continues to new lows.

As Cointelegraph reported, traders have long warned about a second bear flag and its consequences after the first completed in January.

“It looks almost exactly the same. Bear Flag Breakdown & Retest with low volume on the upward move,” trader Roman told X followers last week after BTC/USD hit six-week highs of $76,000.

After the weekend, trader Jelle went further, suggesting that price had already broken support.

“Not a great way to start the week if you’re a bull. Consolidate here for a day or two and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking,” he warned.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X

On Saturday, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the bear-flag breakdown target could be below $50,000.

Gold hits bear market on Iran oil woes

The worsening global energy crisis focused on the Middle East is already taking a fresh toll on risk assets and safe havens this week.

Asian stock markets tumbled during their first session, while gold and silver also came under heavy selling pressure. Bitcoin joined them, hitting two-week lows into Sunday’s weekly close. 

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter even suggested that the downside in gold could have claimed a large-volume market participant.

“The sporadic moves in price could signal that a potential large player in the space is being liquidated,” it told X followers.

Advertisement

Kobeissi added that rising US 10-year treasury note yields were “beginning to weigh on various asset classes.”

“Combine this with headline fatigue and ‘pockets’ of illiquidity in the market, and the massive gaps to both directions are only growing,” it added. 

“Something big is happening metals markets right now.”

XAU/USD one-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Now down over 20% since its all-time high, XAU/USD officially entered bear-market territory, hitting local lows of $4,099 per ounce — a level not seen since November 2025.

Oil, meanwhile, increasingly sought to stay above the $100 mark as uncertainty over flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed the potential impact on future US inflation readings.

Advertisement

“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more. And even before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, there are growing signs that inflation is already inflecting higher,” it noted.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Risk-asset hope remains despite hawkish Fed

This week has little by way of key inflation reports, with jobless claims and S&P Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data taking center stage.

Crypto has shown sensitivity to PMI releases in recent months, with US manufacturing finally on the up after several years of retraction.

At the same time, headwinds from the Iran war are mounting, as shown by the hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve at last week’s meeting.

After leaving interest rates unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell said that any loosening of policy would now depend on “progress” being made on inflation. 

Advertisement

“As a result, the market is quickly repricing the outlook for rate cuts,” Mosaic Asset Company commented. 

“While market-implied odds don’t point to another rate cut for over a year, another key indicator is suggesting that rate hikes could be in store.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

The conservative stance came despite weakening US labor-market conditions — traditionally cause to reassess restrictive policy measures.

A silver lining, however, could lie in store for risk assets in the form of historical patterns repeating. As Cointelegraph reported, crypto’s positive stocks correlation has recently grown.

“Conditions across breadth and sentiment are evolving to support a rally in the S&P 500. At the same time, historic precedent for market movements around major geopolitical events also hint that a rebound could be in store for the stock market,” Mosaic continued.

Kobeissi had similar ideas, reporting “skyrocketing” trading activity across stocks and last week’s giant options expiry event freeing up capital.

Advertisement

“Friday’s volume was also amplified by ~$5.7 trillion in options tied to US stocks, indexes, and ETFs expiring in the largest March triple-witching in at least 30 years,” it wrote on X. 

“The massive volume of expired options has released billions in capital, which could drive significant market swings this week. Brace for more market volatility.”

S&P 500 ETF chart with volume data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bitcoin old hands sell at a loss

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are feeling the pressure at current levels — even without a rematch with range lows.

Related: Bitcoin RSI signals potential bottom as analysts flag key setup

CryptoQuant research reveals “capitulation” signals from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures whether coins moving onchain are doing so at a higher or lower price than during their previous transaction.

SOPR readings below 1 mean that the observed supply — in this case that owned by LTHs — is on aggregate moving at a loss.

Advertisement

“On March 11, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.64, meaning long-term holders were selling their coins at a 36% loss relative to their cost basis. This is one of the most extreme LTH capitulation readings in recent months,” contributor The Enigma Trader commented. 

“A value this far below 1.0 indicates that even patient, conviction holders were being shaken out, a sign of genuine fear in the market.”

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant

The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR is still below 1 — even as large tranches of BTC leave exchanges in a potential emerging accumulation trend.

“One possible interpretation: while long-term holders were capitulating between March 10–20, a separate cohort was quietly absorbing supply and moving coins off exchanges,” it continued. 

“Distribution and accumulation happening simultaneously, a classic phase transition setup.”