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Bitcoin Holds Near $69,000 as Near-Term Backdrop ‘Remains Fragile’

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Most large-cap crypto assets are flat or slightly down today, while ETF flows turned positive.

Crypto markets slumped slightly on Tuesday morning, Feb. 10, with prices stabilizing among large-caps but conviction still thin as total market capitalization sank 2% to $2.43 trillion.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $69,300 at press time, down about 1% over the past 24 hours, with weekly losses at 9%.

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BTC 7-day price chart. Source: CoinGecko

Ethereum (ETH) is holding out just above $2,000, slipping 3.3% on the day and down about 10% on the week. Price action across other large-cap altcoins were mixed, with most flat or slightly down today. Hyperliquid’s HYPE saw the biggest losses among the top-20 assets, down 7% on the day and over 15% on the week.

Groundwork for Stronger Returns

On-chain analytics firm Keyrock said in an update on Monday, Feb. 9, that investors remain cautious, with a liquidity-driven risk reset still underway and little sign the market is nearing a sustained recovery.

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Macro stats. Source: Keyrock

As speculative liquidity continues to retreat, crypto prices have become more sensitive to shifts in macro conditions and spot demand. And even though Bitcoin has stabilized above recent lows, the analysts say the broader backdrop remains fragile.

“While the near-term backdrop remains fragile, periods marked by pessimism, compressed liquidity, and elevated volatility have historically laid the groundwork for stronger long-term returns once expectations reset and macro clarity improves,” the Keyrock analysts said.

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James Harris, chief executive of European crypto firm Tesseract Group, told The Defiant in commentary that macro conditions “are mixed but leaning supportive,” noting that the dollar has weakened over the past year and “rate markets are pricing cuts for later in 2026, though near term policy uncertainty remains.”

As for the on-chain perspective, Harris said exchange outflows and accumulation by larger holders “support the idea of inventory moving from weak hands to stronger hands.”

According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, investor sentiment still remains in the “extreme fear” zone, despite flatter markets.

Big Movers and Liquidations

Looking at the top-100 assets by market cap, Aster (ASTER) outperformed the broader market, jumping nearly 8%, while Quant (QNT) and MemeCore (M) rose about 5% and 3%, respectively.

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On the downside, decentralized perpetual futures exchange MYX Finance (MYX) was today’s biggest loser, down 4.5%, followed by centralized exchange tokens KuCoin (KCS) and Bitget (BGB), also down about 4%.

As for liquidations, CoinGlass data shows that roughly $260 million in positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin accounted for about $95.5 million in liquidations, followed by Ethereum at roughly $82.7 million.

ETFs and Macro Conditions

On Monday, Feb. 9, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $145 million in net inflows, lifting cumulative inflows to $54.83 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Total value traded reached $4.48 billion, with total net assets at $90.05 billion.

Spot Ethereum ETFs flows were also in the green with $57 million in net inflows yesterday, pushing cumulative inflows to $11.87 billion, despite recent price weakness.

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In macro markets, fresh U.S. data reinforced concerns about slowing consumer momentum.

Retail sales were flat in December, missing expectations for a 0.4% increase, according to Commerce Department data published today. Annual retail sales growth slowed to 2.4%, down from 3.3% in November.

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Crypto World

Kaito and Polymarket Unveil ‘Attention Markets’

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Kaito and Polymarket Unveil 'Attention Markets'

Kaito and Polymarket have launched ‘Attention Markets’, merging attention measurement technology with prediction market infrastructure to track cultural narratives.

Kaito and Polymarket have launched ‘Attention Markets’, an initiative that combines Kaito’s attention measurement technology with Polymarket’s prediction market infrastructure.

These markets aim to capture the dynamics of cultural narratives and emerging trends. Prediction market trading volumes have experienced a remarkable surge, growing 850% year-over-year and reaching $6.2 billion in weekly volume as of January 2026. This growth underscores the increasing relevance and influence of prediction markets in capturing collective beliefs and trends.

“As information becomes abundant, attention becomes the scarce resource. Attention Markets represent a new category within prediction markets—one that captures the dynamics of what people are paying attention to, how narratives form, and where relevance is moving next,” said Yu Hu, founder & CEO of Kaito.

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A Polymarket spokesperson further elaborated on the partnership: “Polymarket has always been about turning collective beliefs into market signals. Partnering with Kaito allows us to apply that same market logic to attention itself, unlocking new ways for markets to reflect culture, trends, and shifts in public focus.”

Attention Markets will span various verticals, including AI, finance, and entertainment, and be offered on both the Polymarket and Kaito platforms.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.

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Miami Beach House for Sale, But Only With Bitcoin?

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Ongoing decline in the share of US tech jobs that are located in California

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee—big moves are happening on the US coasts. From luxury mansions in Miami to shifts in billionaire residency, wealth is on the move, amid new patterns in finance, real estate, and crypto.

Crypto News of the Day: Florida Emerges as a Tax Haven for Tech and Crypto Wealth

California’s tech and crypto elites are increasingly eyeing Florida as a tax-friendly alternative. Grant Cardone’s recent X (Twitter) post advertising a 10,000 sq. ft., 7-bedroom Miami mansion for 700 BTC highlights the growing intersection of Bitcoin wealth and high-end real estate.

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The listing coincides with a surge in relocations by high-net-worth individuals from California. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, are the latest California billionaires moving to South Florida.

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Reportedly, they are purchasing a newly completed waterfront mansion in Miami’s Indian Creek neighborhood. Based on reports, the gated community is home to other high-profile figures, including Jeff Bezos, Tom Brady, and Jared Kushner/Ivanka Trump.

The seller is reportedly a limited liability company tied to Jersey Mike’s Subs founder Peter Cancro. While the deal has not been publicly confirmed as closed, WSJ, citing neighbors, estimates that Zuckerberg plans to move in by April 2026.

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California Tax Fallout

The relocations come amid a proposed California billionaire tax that has sparked concern among the state’s wealthiest residents.

According to Chamath Palihapitiya, a Canadian-American VC and SPAC pioneer, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has fallen from over $2 trillion to under $1 trillion following announcements of high-profile departures.

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Palihapitiya criticized the state’s handling of the proposed tax, arguing that the middle class will bear the fiscal burden left behind by relocating billionaires.

“These were all people who were paying 13%+ in state income tax every year with no complaints until a few weeks ago,” remarked Palihapitiya.

Against this backdrop, experts describe the billionaire tax initiative as having “backfired in the most spectacular fashion with ripple effects on local economies and corporate headquarters.

Brian Sullivan of CNBC noted that companies often follow CEOs, suggesting that Meta employees could also relocate to Florida, effectively benefiting from lower state income tax rates.

Local real estate agents report a significant uptick in demand for ultra-luxury properties. According to Danny Hertzberg, a Miami agent with Coldwell Banker Realty, interest in South Florida’s high-end market has intensified since the announcement of California’s billionaire tax.

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“The 5% tax in California is really driving out people in a major way,” WSJ reported, citing Hertzberg.

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Crypto’s Role in Wealth Mobility

Beyond real estate, the situation mirrors broader trends in wealth mobility and in decentralized assets. Balaji Srinivasan, former CTO of Coinbase, has warned that California’s billionaire tax could disrupt venture capital incentives, potentially reducing Silicon Valley from “one to zero” over the next decade.

He frames crypto networks and internet-native protocols as politically resilient alternatives, able to operate globally and adapt to structural risk in ways traditional tech and finance cannot.

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Srinivasan likens the current moment to an extinction event: while Silicon Valley’s centralized dominance may be fragile, decentralized networks like Bitcoin are structurally positioned to thrive in a shifting political and economic playing field.

“…the intended purpose of the California wealth seizure referendum is to rob or exile everyone in tech… The goal of the Democrats is to drive tech out of California, like they did the Republicans…cryptocurrency is built to resist wealth seizures, but Silicon Valley technology sure is not… As a natural-born US citizen, he [Zuckerberg] doesn’t have the same constraints that Thiel and Elon did,” Srinivasan explained.

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As Florida attracts both tech and crypto wealth, Grant Cardone’s 700 BTC mansion is emblematic of a wider trend. High-net-worth individuals are leveraging digital assets and favorable tax jurisdictions to preserve wealth, while California’s billionaire tax debate continues to reverberate across the US.

Chart of the Day

Ongoing decline in the share of US tech jobs that are located in California
Ongoing decline in the share of US tech jobs that are located in California. Source: Apollo Academy Research

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

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Bitcoin Buy Signal Points to 220% Upside Despite Near-Term Risk

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin Adoption

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $69,000 on Tuesday, confirming the view that price consolidation is the most likely course over the short term. The sell-off to $60,000 and the subsequent recovery to $72,000 resulted in many BTC price indicators falling into what analysts believe to be a deep value zone, but will buyers reach the same conclusion?

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s realized price bands have aligned with a long-term accumulation zone that preceded new BTC highs. 

  • Power Law quantile models place BTC near the lower 15% of its long-term log-log price corridor, a zone that has consistently appeared after prior cycle peaks.

  • Valuation and momentum metrics are clustering around the $40,000–$55,000 region, marking a statistically significant structural support area.

BTC realized price bands outline long-term DCA zones

Bitcoin’s realized price and shifted realized price have successfully identified long-term accumulation zones since 2015.

Realized price reflects the average cost basis of all BTC last moved onchain whereas the shifted realized price smoothens this metric forward in time, capturing deeper-value zones during stronger drawdowns.

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Currently, Bitcoin’s realized price sits near $55,000, while the shifted realized price is around $42,000.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin Adoption
BTC monthly price zones based on realized price bands. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Multiple years of historical data show that rallies following the re-test of these zones delivered big gains, as shown in the chart above. While returns have diminished over time, the structure still implies upside potential of 170% to 220%, aligning with targets above $150,000 in the next bullish period.

Bitcoin has typically consolidated for six to eight months after testing the realized price bands before resuming an upward trend and hitting new highs.

Power law model signals relative undervaluation for BTC

Popularized by BTC researcher Giovanni Santostasi, the updated power law quantile model places BTC near the 14th percentile of its long-term log-log price corridor, suggesting temporary undervaluation following a cycle peak that fell short of the model’s projected $210,000 high in 2025.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin Adoption
Bitcoin projections based on the power law quantile model. Source: X

Confluence between price trading near realized price bands and lower power law percentiles has preceded major recoveries.

The model’s fifth (0.05) percentile previously marked long-term cycle floors and now sits between $50,000 and $62,000, overlapping with the accumulation range defined by the realized price bands.

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Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?

Analysts say Bitcoin may sell off before the next big rally occurs

Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that BTC price is currently down roughly 31% from its first weekly RSI 37 break, a level that has preceded cycle bottoms since 2014.

The drawdowns ranged between 17% and 55%, with the recent cycles bottoming closer to 40–43%, implying potential downside toward $52,000 before a durable low forms.

Crypto analyst Sherlock highlighted a breakdown in the BTC/Gold (XAU) ratio below the 15–16 level, a signal that previously marked transitions into a bearish period.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin Adoption
BTC/Gold ratio analysis by Sherlock. Source: X

Based on this framework, Sherlock warns BTC may still see a deeper retracement toward the $38,000 to $40,000 region if history repeats.

Related: Bitcoin price punishes traders as 24-hour crypto liquidations pass $250M