TLDR

• Senate Banking Committee approval before April’s end is critical, or the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage probability plummets
• Prediction markets show declining confidence: Polymarket at 56% (down 9 points), Kalshi at merely 30% by June
• Central controversy revolves around permitting stablecoin issuers to distribute yield to holders
• Coinbase withdrew endorsement in January, asserting a flawed bill is worse than no legislation
• Gnosis co-founder cautions the legislation might consolidate crypto control among centralized entities

Time is running short for the CLARITY Act, America’s proposed cryptocurrency market structure legislation. According to Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn, the bill requires Senate floor consideration by early May to maintain viable 2026 passage prospects. This necessitates Senate Banking Committee clearance before April concludes.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has publicly acknowledged the April timeline appears unrealistic. Current Senate priorities center on the SAVE America Act, relegating the CLARITY Act to secondary status on the legislative calendar.

According to Thorn, each day of postponement reduces available time for floor consideration. Without committee approval during April, he characterized 2026 passage prospects as “extremely low.”

Prediction platforms mirror this growing skepticism. Polymarket indicates the legislation’s 2026 enactment probability has declined 9 percentage points to 56%. Kalshi demonstrates greater pessimism, calculating 30% likelihood before June and merely 7% before May.

Stablecoin Yield Remains Central Flashpoint

The most contentious issue involves stablecoin yield distribution. The controversy focuses on whether stablecoin issuers should possess authority to pass interest earnings to users.

Representative French Hill stated that prohibiting stablecoin yield represents a non-negotiable requirement for Senate advancement. Traditional banking institutions contend that interest-bearing stablecoins would divert deposits from regulated financial entities.

Cryptocurrency firms counter that reward-bearing stablecoins enhance payment utility. Coinbase retracted support during January. CEO Brian Armstrong argued the current draft undermines decentralized finance, prohibits stablecoin yield, and restricts tokenized real-world assets. “We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill,” he declared.

Senator Angela Alsobrooks suggested compromise from both factions may prove necessary. White House crypto adviser and Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal also condemned banks for impeding progress.

DeFi and Regulatory Turf Wars Still Unresolved

Thorn suggested the stablecoin controversy may not represent the final hurdle. He identified outstanding questions regarding decentralized finance regulation, developer liability protections, and SEC-CFTC jurisdictional boundaries.

Attorney Jake Chervinsky noted that banking institutions also express concern about stablecoin liquidity migrating toward DeFi platforms, beyond just yield distribution issues.

Gnosis co-founder Dr. Friederike Ernst cautioned the bill’s present framework threatens to channel all cryptocurrency activity through licensed intermediaries. She expressed concern this could consolidate crypto infrastructure control among a limited group of major institutions.

Ernst acknowledged the legislation includes positive elements, such as safeguarding peer-to-peer transactions and self-custody rights, plus defining SEC and CFTC regulatory boundaries.

Senator Bernie Moreno expressed continued optimism for April passage and presidential signature. Thorn indicated that schedule now appears increasingly unrealistic.

The week could prove pivotal for markets, including bitcoin BTC$73,685.87, with the U.S. Federal Reserve among seven major central banks set to announce interest-rate decisions while war-driven oil price gains threaten to reignite inflation in the global economy.

Most of the central banks are expected to keep interest rates steady, but hawkish comments from policymakers, driven by inflation concerns, could trigger downside volatility across risk assets.

While reflationary environments have historically supported bitcoin, rising inflation expectations are pushing bond yields higher and tightening financial conditions, André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk. Those conditions generally make riskier investments less attractive.

Still, geopolitical tensions are currently dominating the market backdrop, according to Dragosch. Historically, such shocks tend to fade quickly, and bitcoin has often delivered above-average returns after periods of elevated geopolitical risk.

“Investors should generally fade these kinds of events and view them as short-term buying opportunities,” Dragosch said.

Bitcoin is trading at what Dragosch called the “biggest macro discount” on record, with sentiment near FTX-collapse lows. “We are probably closer to the bottom than the top,” he said.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • March 17: Lava Network (LAVA) to expand with 17 new chain integrations and nine new blockchain ecosystems.
  • March 19: Walrus (WAL) final deadline for Tusky users to migrate their data.
  • March 23: Backpack token generation event occurs, with 250 million tokens (25% of total supply) to be distributed.
• Macro
  • March 16, 8:30 a.m.: Canada consumer price index (CPI) YoY for February (Prev. 2.3%)
  • March 17, 4:30 a.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision est. 4.1% (Prev. 3.85%)
  • March 17, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Pending Home Sales MoM for February (Prev. -0.8%)
  • March 18, 6 a.m.: Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) for February. MoM est. 0.7% (Prev. -0.6%); YoY est. 1.9% (Prev. 1.7%)
  • March 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI for February. YoY est. 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%); Core PPI YoY est. 3.2% (Prev. 3.6%)
  • March 18, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest rate decision Est. 2.25% (Prev. 2.25%)
  • March 18, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Factory Orders MoM for January (Prev. -0.7%)
  • March 18, 2:00 p.m.: Fed interest rate decision Est. 3.50%-3.75% (Prev. 3.50%-3.75%); FOMC economic projections
  • March 18, 2:30 p.m.: Fed Chair press conference
  • March 18, 5:30 p.m.: Central Bank of Brazil Selic rate decision Est. 14.50% (Prev. 15%)
  • March 18, 11 p.m.: Bank of Japan interest rate decision Est. 0.75% (Prev. 0.75%)
  • March 19, 4:30 a.m.: Swiss National Bank interest rate decision Est. 0% (Prev. 0%)
  • March 19, 8 a.m.: Bank of England interest rate decision Est. 3.75% (Prev. 3.75%).
  • March 19, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending March 14 Est. 215K (Prev. 213K)
  • March 19, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March (Prev. 16.3)
  • March 19, 9:15 a.m.: ECB interest rate decision for main refinancing rate Est. 2.15% Prev. 2.15%
  • March 19, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Balance Sheet for week ending March 18 (Prev. $6.65T)
  • March 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada PPI YoY (Prev. 5.4%); MoM (Prev. 2.7%)

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• March 16: Bakkt Holdings (BKKT), post-market, -$0.47
• March 16: Bitcoin Depot (BTM), pre-market, -$0.47
• March 16: Cango (CANG), post-market, -$0.34
• March 17: CEA Industries (BNC), post-market, $0.69
• March 18: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.03
• March 19: Gemini Space Station (GEMI), post-market, -$0.91
• March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • March 17: Mantle (MNT) to host State of Mind Ep. 07, discussing CeDeFi milestones and DeFi strategies.
  • March 18: Jupiter (JUP) to hold its weekly Planetary Call community session with team updates.
  • March 18: THETA$0.1833 head of marketing & PR to discuss ecosystem updates.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting on whether to allow registered users to customize the color of their avatar name tag and to add a more accessible volume slider to the UI sidebar. Voting ends March 16 and 17.
  • Convex Finance is voting on Curve and Frax gauge weight allocations for the week of March 12, directing vlCVX voting power across hundreds of liquidity pools. It’s also voting on FXN gauge weight allocations for the same period. Voting ends March 17.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to finalize its 2026–2027 multisig signers election, preserving the 5-of-9 threshold and setting quarterly signer compensation. Voting ends March 17.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is running Ballot 3 to elect seven of the remaining 10 nominees as multi-sig signers, completing the nine-signer roster for the DAO Foundation wallet. Voting ends March 17.
  • Aura Finance is voting on Balancer gauge weight allocations for the week of March 12, directing vlAURA voting power across Balancer pools on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, Gnosis, Base and Avalanche. Voting ends March 17.
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting on establishing and funding a new International UX workstream for six months to maintain professional multilingual translations of the ShapeShift app and website. Voting ends March 17.
  • WalletConnect Network is voting on allocating 50 million WCT tokens as a dedicated rewards budget for WalletConnect Pay in 2026. Voting ends March 18.
  • ENS is voting on a one-time transfer of 900,000 USDC from the ENS Endowment to wallet.ensdao.eth to cover a shortfall in stream payments owed to ENS Labs. Voting ends March 18.
  • Cratos DAO is voting on extending the current mobile app reward standard deadline by one month to April 30, 2026. Voting ends March 19.
  • Lightchain AI DAO is voting on a temporary 90-day team authority proposal, which grants the core team temporary operational authority for 90 days to make day-to-day and strategic decisions. Voting ends March 22.
• Unlocks
  • March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $9.65 million.
  • March 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply worth $52.45 million.
• Token Launches

Conferences

TLDR

• On March 15, Robert Kiyosaki issued warnings about an intensifying financial “giant crash”
• The author highlighted panic in private credit markets and distress among leading banks
• Kiyosaki deployed millions to acquire oil assets, precious metals, Bitcoin, and Ethereum
• He contrasted his investment strategy with Warren Buffett’s cash-heavy approach
• The financial educator forecasts higher valuations for gold, silver, and Bitcoin post-crash

The bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, issued fresh concerns on March 15 about an escalating financial crisis. His warnings focused on turbulence in private credit markets and mounting pressure on established banking institutions.

“Crash accelerates,” he wrote on X. “Private credit funds are panicked as investors withdraw their money. Major big-name banks and brand-name financial institutions are in trouble.”

Kiyosaki also referenced economist Jim Rickards, noting that he has officially proclaimed the United States has entered a “New Depression.”

In response to these conditions, Kiyosaki revealed he deployed millions of dollars in capital last week. His purchases included additional oil wells, precious metals, and cryptocurrency holdings.

“Last week I took millions in cash and purchased more oil wells, more gold, silver, and bitcoin,” he wrote.

The financial educator confirmed he’s also accumulating Ethereum as part of his diversified acquisition strategy.

Kiyosaki referenced Warren Buffett’s well-known cash accumulation strategy, recognizing it as a tactical approach to maintain liquidity and acquire undervalued assets when markets decline.

Kiyosaki vs. Buffett: Two Different Crash Strategies

Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, has been building its cash position for some time. Kiyosaki acknowledged the logic, saying “Cash is not trash in a crash.”

However, Kiyosaki emphasized that his investment philosophy differs fundamentally. Rather than stockpiling currency, he’s converting it into tangible assets.

“I doubt Warren Buffett would do what I do,” he wrote.

For investors lacking a clear strategy, Kiyosaki provided straightforward guidance. He suggested that remaining on the sidelines might be the wisest choice during market turbulence for those without a defined plan.

The author also highlighted Middle East geopolitical instability as an influencing factor. He noted that persistent attacks on oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz are elevating crude prices, which directly benefits his Texas-based oil well investments.

Why Kiyosaki Keeps Buying Bitcoin

Kiyosaki has maintained a vocal stance on Bitcoin acquisitions for multiple years. He consistently categorizes it alongside precious metals as a “real asset” due to its mathematically limited supply of 21 million coins.

He has repeatedly stated his conviction that Bitcoin represents a superior investment compared to gold. Market corrections, according to him, present optimal opportunities to expand holdings.

His Bitcoin-related statements have attracted scrutiny for apparent contradictions. One post claimed he never purchased Bitcoin above $6,000, while subsequent posts documented purchases at significantly elevated price levels.

Regardless of the debates, he continues to publicly endorse Bitcoin and Ethereum as fundamental components of his investment approach.

Kiyosaki maintains his belief that valuations for gold, silver, and Bitcoin will surge following a substantial market crash. While acknowledging his predictions could prove incorrect, he expresses strong confidence in his current positions.

The financial author initially forecast his “giant crash” scenario in his 2013 publication Rich Dad’s Prophecy. His warnings have intensified in frequency as 2026 approaches.

Australia’s Senate Economics Legislation Committee has backed a bill that would require crypto exchanges and tokenization platforms to comply with the country’s existing financial services regime, recommending that the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 be passed. 

The move on March 16 brings Australia a step closer to a bespoke licensing framework for “digital asset platforms” (DAPs) and “tokenised custody platforms” (TCPs), aimed at closing gaps in oversight of platforms that hold customer assets following the collapses of high‑profile digital asset businesses, such as FTX.

The bill, first introduced by Assistant Treasurer and Financial Services Minister Daniel Mulino in November 2025, would treat DAPs and TCPs as financial products under the Corporations Act and Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) Act, pushing most centralized exchanges and tokenized custody businesses that hold client assets into the Australian Financial Services Licence regime.

Related: Ripple targets April for Australian financial license via acquisition

Licensed platforms must meet ASIC-set custody and settlement standards, comply with tailored disclosure rules for retail clients, and operate under platform‑specific conduct and governance requirements, while small providers with annual transaction thresholds under 10 million Australian dollars ($7 million) and some public blockchain infrastructure are exempt.

Industry groups warnings around terminology

Industry groups cited in the report, such as law firm Piper Alderman, warned that the broad “digital token” and “factual control” tests could inadvertently include wallet software and infrastructure providers in non-unilateral-control setups, including common multi‑party computation (MPC) configurations.

US blockchain firm Ripple Labs backed “control” as the “appropriate nexus” for the regulatory perimeter, but argued that the bill needed to better accommodate modern security architectures such as MPC wallets.

It warned that, on a strict reading of the “factual control” test, technology‑only providers holding a single key shard could be misclassified as regulated custodians, and urged lawmakers to clarify that an entity does not exercise factual control unless it can unilaterally transfer an asset without the client’s cooperation.

Related: Australia warns of AI, ‘finfluencers’ as Gen Z crypto ownership reaches 23%

The committee acknowledged these concerns, but sided with Treasury’s plan to refine the perimeter through future regulations rather than rewriting the core definitions.

Coinbase hails progress but warns on debanking risk

In an email statement to Cointelegraph, Coinbase Australia director and APAC managing director John O’Loghlen welcomed the recommendation as “an important step for Australia’s standing in the global digital economy.” He argued that the country had the capital and talent to lead in digital assets, but still needed clear rules to unlock that potential.

O’Loghlen also warned that “the anti-competitive practice of debanking is rampant despite the government endorsing measures to address it back in 2022,” and urged Canberra to prioritize implementing the Council of Financial Regulators’ recommendations.

With the committee’s backing in hand, the bill now moves to the Senate for debate and a final vote at a later date.

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