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Bitcoin Long Term Holders Quietly Accumulate Near $68,000

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Bitcoin LTH CBD Heatmap

Bitcoin has struggled to regain upward momentum in recent sessions. The price has remained range-bound amid uncertain macro conditions. Volatility in equities and rate expectations has capped recovery attempts.

With short-term signals mixed, attention shifts to long-term holders, or LTHs. This cohort has historically shaped major Bitcoin reversals. Their behavior now offers critical insight into whether BTC is nearing a turning point.

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Bitcoin LTHs Have a Critical Support Established

The LTH CBD Heatmap highlights significant supply density above $65,000. This cluster is anchored in the 2024 first-half accumulation range. That zone has repeatedly absorbed recent selling pressure. Strong demand there suggests conviction among experienced Bitcoin holders.

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This support band has acted as a buffer during pullbacks. Capital accumulated during prior consolidation phases remains largely dormant. As long as this structure holds, large-scale distribution appears unlikely.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin LTH CBD Heatmap
Bitcoin LTH CBD Heatmap. Source: Glassnode

A decisive breakdown below this range would change the narrative. It could open the path toward Bitcoin’s Realized Price, currently near $54,000. However, such a move seems less probable while LTH supply remains stable. The data suggests holders are not preparing for capitulation.

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How Are LTHs Reacting?

The Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, has recently declined. This metric measures aggregate unrealized gains within long-term wallets. Falling NUPL indicates shrinking profitability among this BTC cohort.

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Historically, extended NUPL declines have coincided with deeper price corrections. Similar patterns appeared in February 2020 and June 2022. In those periods, weakening profitability led to broader capitulation events.

Bitcoin LTH NUPL
Bitcoin LTH NUPL. Source: Glassnode

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This cycle appears different. Institutional flows and spot Bitcoin ETF support have strengthened structural demand. Persistent inflows from regulated products provide a stabilizing force. As a result, LTHs may be less inclined to exit positions despite margin compression.

HODLer Net Position Change data shows Bitcoin LTHs are accumulating rather than distributing. Rising green bars on the metric suggest coins are moving into long-term storage. This is a positive sign as their accumulation tends to stick for a long while, unlike STHs, who are prone to selling at the first sign of profits.

Continued inflows into LTH wallets reinforce this trend. Accumulation during uncertainty can slow downside momentum, and if this pattern persists, it may help establish a foundation for a broader Bitcoin price recovery.

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Bitcoin HODLer Net Position Change
Bitcoin HODLer Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

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BTC Price Is Still Under Resistance

Bitcoin is trading at $68,282 at the time of writing. The primary near-term target remains reclaiming the $70,000 level. This psychological barrier has capped upside for roughly ten days.

The $68,342 support level is critical in the short term. Strong defense of this zone could enable BTC to challenge the $70,610 resistance. A confirmed breakout may extend gains toward $73,499 and potentially higher if momentum accelerates.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Downside risk remains present under adverse macro conditions. A break below $65,158 would weaken the current structure. Losing that support could expose Bitcoin to a deeper retracement. In such a scenario, price could gravitate toward the Realized Price near $58,000.

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StarkNet Adds EY Nightfall to Enable Private Payments on Eth Rails

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Crypto Breaking News

StarkWare’s Starknet is expanding its privacy capabilities by integrating EY’s Nightfall protocol, enabling institutions to run private payments and DeFi activity on public Ethereum-aligned rails, with confidentiality preserved alongside auditability. In a Tuesday release, StarkWare positioned the move as a bridge for enterprises to use a shared, open layer-2 instead of siloed, bank-only networks, while partnering with a Big Four firm that already audits many prospective onboarding clients. Nightfall—EY’s open-source zero-knowledge privacy layer—lets transactions be verified without exposing underlying data, unlocking private B2B and cross-border payments, confidential treasury management, and on-chain transfers of tokenized assets around the clock. The rollout appears staged, focusing on privacy-forward onboarding with selective disclosure for regulators and auditors.

Key takeaways

  • StarkWare is integrating EY Nightfall into Starknet to support private transactions on an Ethereum-compatible chain, enabling private payments and DeFi activity at scale.
  • The plan emphasizes an open, layer-2 solution rather than siloed, bank-only networks, with a Big Four auditor involved in onboarding.
  • Nightfall’s zero-knowledge privacy layer lets verifications occur without revealing private data, while still allowing selective disclosure for compliance and audits.
  • The rollout will be staged, starting with compliant private payments and transfers and expanding to additional features as the system scales.
  • Starknet has grown to be a major ZK rollup by TVL, but has faced outages in 2025 that prompted post-mortems and reliability enhancements ahead of broader institutional flows.

Tickers mentioned: $ETH, $ZEC

Market context: The initiative signals a growing emphasis on privacy-preserving rails and interoperable, on-chain workflows for institutions within the expanding Layer-2 ecosystem, as DeFi and cross-border token transfers push for compliance-ready, scalable solutions.

Why it matters

The blending of Nightfall with Starknet is more than a technical upgrade; it represents a strategic attempt to unlock institutional participation in public blockchains without forcing a trade-off between privacy and auditability. By anchoring the privacy layer to a public, open network, StarkWare aims to encourage banks and corporates to explore private payments, treasury management, and cross-border settlement on-chain, while maintaining visibility for regulatory and internal controls. The approach could lower the barriers for traditional financial players who have historically shied away from fully transparent on-chain activity, offering a path to leverage distributed ledger technology within established compliance frameworks.

Eli Ben-Sasson, StarkWare’s co-founder and CEO and a founding scientist of privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC), described the Nightfall-on-Starknet initiative as paving the way for “the equivalent of a private superhighway for stablecoins and tokenized deposits.” The framing underscores a broader privacy push across Starknet, where institutions could gain confidential access to Ethereum DeFi activities—such as lending, swaps, and yield strategies—without sacrificing auditable records. Alex Gruell, StarkWare’s global head of business development, emphasized that Nightfall’s readiness for KYC-verified onboarding could be a critical differentiator for large organizations entering the blockchain space, aligning privacy with regulatory compliance at scale.[Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC) is referenced here to reflect Ben-Sasson’s broader background and the privacy ethos behind the technology.]

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Gruell also argued that Nightfall, when paired with Starknet, functions as an interoperability layer that could bridge otherwise siloed institutional environments. He contrasted this architecture with permissioned, stand-alone networks such as Canton Network, which he argued are not yet integrated with the Web3 ecosystem. The planned rollout remains permissionless and fully integrated into Starknet, with a staged deployment that starts with private payments and transfers guarded by compliance gates and secure sequencing. Verifier upgrades and expanded functionality will follow as the system scales, aiming to preserve privacy by default while enabling selective disclosure for audits and regulatory checks.

Starknet’s growth and teething trouble

Starknet has established itself as one of the larger ZK rollups by total value locked (TVL), with current estimates hovering around $280 million, driven largely by DeFi protocols and native ecosystem apps. This rapid ascent has not come without challenges. In 2025, Starknet experienced outages tied to sequencer and infrastructure weaknesses, prompting public post-mortems and commitments to harden reliability before courting broader institutional flow. The ongoing efforts to improve resilience are central to appealing to banks and corporates that require robust operational continuity alongside privacy guarantees.

As Starknet matures, proponents argue that a privacy-first path—especially when supported by a reputable auditor—could unlock new capital channels on public rails. The integration with Nightfall is positioned as a concrete step toward that vision, offering institutions a controlled yet verifiable on-chain environment. Yet observers will be watching how the privacy layer handles cross-border compliance challenges, including KYC/AML workflows and data-access requirements, as real-world usage scales beyond pilots and proof-of-concept tests.

What to watch next

  • Timeline and milestones for the staged rollout, including the initial private-payments phase and planned expansions of on-chain features.
  • Auditing milestones and regulatory reviews tied to the Nightfall integration, especially around KYC verification workflows.
  • Verifier upgrades and any announced improvements to sequencing, privacy guarantees, and throughput as adoption grows.
  • Real-world usage metrics from early institutional deployments and any interoperability benchmarks with other networks.

Sources & verification

  • StarkWare’s announcement detailing the Nightfall integration with Starknet for private payments and DeFi on public rails.
  • EY’s Nightfall privacy protocol, describing zero-knowledge privacy for on-chain transactions.
  • Cointelegraph coverage of the Nightfall integration and related commentary from StarkWare and EY.
  • DefiLlama data showing Starknet’s TVL around $280 million and its DeFi usage drivers.
  • Starknet outage post-mortems and reliability commitments published in 2025.

What the story means for users and builders

The integration positions privacy-preserving on-chain activity as a standard feature for institutional users within public blockchain networks. For builders, it creates an opportunity to design DeFi products and treasury solutions that satisfy typical enterprise compliance requirements without sacrificing the openness and composability that characterize open ecosystems. For users and investors, the development signals ongoing maturation of Layer-2 privacy capabilities and a potential shift in how incumbent financial institutions interact with blockchain technologies—moving from isolated pilots to scalable, auditable, and privacy-respecting deployments on public rails.

Key figures and next steps

With Nightfall in tow, Starknet’s roadmap includes extended privacy controls, selective disclosure options for audits, and broader cross-border transaction support. The collaboration’s success will hinge on robust reliability improvements, effective onboarding workflows, and the ability to demonstrate real-world compliance without eroding the user experience. If these elements come together, institutions could begin treating public blockchains as viable platforms for confidential settlement and asset management, painting a more nuanced picture of privacy, scalability, and openness in decentralized finance.

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Why it matters for the broader market

Privacy-preserving instrumentation on public blockchains aligns with a broader industry trend toward compliant, enterprise-grade blockchain ecosystems. As institutions weigh the benefits of public networks against privacy and regulatory requirements, solutions like Nightfall could help reconcile these tensions by offering auditable privacy with flexible disclosure. The broader market will be watching how this approach affects competition among Layer-2 providers, the pace of DeFi institutionalization, and the evolution of cross-chain interoperability as the ecosystem grows more interconnected.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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BitMine Stock Price Faces 60% Drop Despite Citigroup Support

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BitMine's Bearish Pattern

The BitMine stock price has started showing early signs of recovery. BMNR rose 6% on Feb. 13 before closing and is up 7.32% over the past five days. This rebound comes even as Ethereum, which BitMine closely tracks due to its ETH treasury exposure, has fallen 3.3% over the past week. This divergence suggests BitMine’s stock price may be trying to catch up.

BMNR charts also show that this rebound may be weak despite big players like Citigroup increasing BMNR holdings quarter-on-quarter. The bearish structure is still active, and the next few trading sessions could decide whether BitMine continues recovering or enters another major drop.

Bear Flag Structure Shows Recovery Attempt — But Breakdown Risk Remains

The BitMine stock price has been trading inside a bear flag pattern since early February. A bear flag forms after a sharp decline, followed by a temporary upward consolidation. This pattern often leads to another drop if buyers fail to fully regain control.

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Between Dec. 10, 2025, and Feb. 5, 2026, BitMine’s stock price fell nearly 60%. This steep drop created the “pole” phase of the pattern. Since Feb. 5, the stock has rebounded about 26%, forming a bear “flag” pattern, which represents a recovery attempt.

BitMine's Bearish Pattern
BitMine’s Bearish Pattern: TradingView

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

However, this recovery remains inside the bearish structure. Unless the stock breaks above key resistance levels, this rebound could simply be a temporary pause before another decline.

If the bear flag confirms, BitMine’s stock price could fall by nearly a 60% drop from the lower trendline breach point. This raises a critical question. If the BitMine stock price is recovering, why does the breakdown risk still remain high?

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The answer becomes clearer when looking at momentum indicators.

Hidden Bearish Divergence Shows BMNR Sellers Still Maintain Control

Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of underlying weakness. RSI is an indicator that measures buying and selling strength on a scale from 0 to 100. When RSI rises while price struggles, it can signal weakening buyer strength.

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The BitMine stock price formed a hidden bearish divergence between Nov. 18, 2025, and Feb. 9, 2026. During this period, the price created a lower high, while RSI formed a higher high. This pattern typically signals that sellers remain in control and further downside may follow.

After this divergence appeared, BitMine’s stock price dropped by over 14%.

Now, a similar setup appears to be forming again. RSI has started rising, but the price still remains below key resistance near $21.57. If the stock fails to break above this level, another bearish divergence could confirm.

RSI Divergence Highlights Risk
RSI Divergence Highlights Risk: TradingView

This would increase the probability of a breakdown from the bear flag pattern. However, momentum alone does not fully explain price direction. Capital flow data provides another important clue.

Capital Flow Remains Weak Despite Institutional Buying

Institutional interest in BitMine has increased significantly. Citigroup raised its ownership stake by over 540%, while firms like BlackRock and BNY Mellon also expanded their exposure. Normally, such buying would support price growth.

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The Fintel snapshot shows Citigroup’s addition but also highlights several BMNR dumps by firms like Baird Financial, Resources Investment Advisors, and more, which can be alarming to the price.

Institutional BMNR Holdings
Institutional BMNR Holdings: Fintel

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows a similar picture. CMF measures whether large investors are putting money into or taking money out of an asset. When CMF stays below zero, it signals that overall capital is still leaving the asset.

CMF Still Weak
CMF Still Weak: TradingView

BitMine’s CMF has started rising gradually, showing that selling pressure is slowing. But the indicator remains below the zero line. This means total institutional buying has not yet fully reversed the broader selling trend. This creates a conflict. While some major firms are increasing exposure, overall, large-scale money flow remains cautious, as highlighted by the earlier snapshot.

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This explains why BitMine’s stock price recovery still appears weak.

Price Levels Now Decide Whether BitMine Stock Price Recovers or Breaks Down

The BitMine stock price now sits at a critical level. If BMNR breaks above resistance between $21.57 and $21.74, the bearish structure would weaken for now. This could allow the stock to rise toward $29.60 and potentially $34.03, provided ETH also gains strength.

Such a move would confirm that buyers have regained control. However, downside risk remains significant.

If the BMNR stock price falls below the $20.02 support level, the bear flag breakdown could begin. This may push the stock toward lower support levels at $15.05 and $11.22. A full breakdown could eventually send the stock toward $8.36.

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BMNR Price Analysis
BMNR Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, BitMine’s stock price sits at a turning point. Citigroup’s aggressive accumulation shows institutional confidence. But bearish momentum and weak capital inflows still limit recovery strength.

The next few trading sessions will likely decide whether Tom Lee’s BMNR follows institutional optimism higher or confirms the bearish breakdown pattern.

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Polygon Surpasses Ethereum in Daily Fees as Polymarket Bets Surge

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Polygon surpassed Ethereum in daily transaction fees for the first time ever, with $407,100 in fees compared to Ethereum’s $211,700.
  • The surge in Polygon’s fees was driven by significant activity on Polymarket, especially surrounding Oscar betting.
  • Polymarket recorded over $15 million in wagers on a single Oscar category over the weekend, contributing to Polygon’s fee growth.
  • Polygon’s average transaction fee is around $0.0026, significantly lower than Ethereum’s fee of about $1.68.
  • Ethereum’s recent volatility, driven by large whale movements, created a more favorable environment for Polygon’s fee surge.

Polygon recently surpassed Ethereum in daily transaction fees, marking a significant shift in blockchain activity. This occurred when Polygon’s network recorded $407,100 in transaction fees on Friday, compared to Ethereum’s $211,700. The increase in Polygon’s revenue coincided with the surge in activity on Polymarket, particularly with Oscar betting.

Polymarket Drives Fee Surge

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, is behind much of Polygon’s newfound fee dominance. Over the weekend, it recorded more than $15 million in wagers for a single Oscar category, attracting considerable retail interest. This surge in betting activity directly translated into substantial network fees for Polygon, which exceeded $1 million in a single week.

This boost in transaction volume significantly impacted Polygon’s overall fee performance. Polymarket, which is built on Polygon’s blockchain, saw consistent traffic, helping drive up daily revenue. As a result, Polygon briefly overtook Ethereum in daily transaction fees, an outcome few expected given Ethereum’s dominant position.

Lower Transaction Fees Give Polygon an Edge

Polygon’s lower transaction costs have made it an attractive alternative to Ethereum for users engaging in frequent, smaller transactions. The average transaction fee on Polygon is around $0.0026, while Ethereum’s fees average about $1.68. This price difference makes Polygon the clear choice for many users, especially in markets like Polymarket, where multiple small bets are common.

The lower costs allow users to move funds more freely, resulting in a higher transaction volume. This increased volume has contributed to Polygon’s fee surge. According to sources, the majority of Polygon’s recent fee growth is attributed to Polymarket’s activity rather than other apps on the network, solidifying the importance of the prediction market.

Ethereum’s Volatility Adds Pressure

While Ethereum remains the dominant blockchain by many measures, its higher fees and increased volatility have made it less appealing for some users. Recently, large whale movements on Ethereum added to concerns about network stability, creating a sense of uncertainty. This has allowed Polygon to capitalize on the growing demand for lower-cost, more predictable transactions.

Despite Ethereum’s structural advantages, the recent surge in Polymarket’s activity has proven that consumer-driven demand can quickly shift fee dynamics.

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Strategy buys 2,486 BTC as a rare pattern points to a Bitcoin price crash

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Bitcoin price

Michael Saylor’s Strategy continued its Bitcoin buying spree last week, even as crypto winter persisted, and the coin formed a rare chart pattern pointing to more near-term downside.

Summary

  • Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, acquired 2,486 Bitcoin last week.
  • The company now holds over 717,000 coins worth nearly $50 billion.
  • Technical analysis suggests that the Bitcoin price is forming a bearish pennant pattern, pointing to a crash.

In an X post, Saylor noted that the company bought 2,496 Bitcoin (BTC) last week for $168 million. This purchase brought its total holdings to 717,131 coins, now valued at nearly $50 billion.

Strategy executed the purchase by selling shares, a move that has continued to dilute its shareholders. Data show that the company still has over $7.8 billion in common shares to sell and an additional $20 billion in preferred STRK.

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The company now has over 312 million of outstanding shares, much higher than what it had a few years ago. This dilution will continue, as Michael Saylor has pledged to buy Bitcoin forever. He also revealed that he plans to swap its debt for shares in the future.

Bitcoin price technical analysis points to a crash

The ongoing Strategy acquisition is happening amid concerns that Bitcoin may continue falling in the near term. In a statement last week, Standard Chartered warned that Bitcoin may drop to $50,000 before recovering. The bank reduced its target for the coin from $150,000 to $100,000.

Bitcoin is facing other headwinds, including the tumbling futures open interest, which has moved to $43 billion, down from last year’s high of $95 billion. 

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At the same time, there are rising odds of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East despite the ongoing talks between Iran and the United States. Donald Trump has sent another carrier to the region, while Iran is conducting drills at the Strait of Hormuz.

A conflict in the Middle East would have a major impact on Bitcoin, which has proven that it is not a safe haven asset. 

Bitcoin price
BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news 

Technical analysis indicates that the Bitcoin price is slowly forming a bearish pennant pattern, consisting of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle. The two lines of the triangle are nearing their confluence, meaning that the coin may soon drop to the year-to-date low of $60,000.

The bearish Bitcoin price outlook will become invalid if it moves above the key resistance level at $80,117, its lowest level in November last year.

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Starknet Taps EY’s Nightfall for Institutional Privacy on Ethereum Rails

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Ethereum, Privacy, DeFi, zk-STARK, Institutions

Starknet developer StarkWare has integrated EY’s Nightfall privacy protocol to let institutions run private payments and decentralized finance (DeFi) activity on public Ethereum-aligned rails, targeting banks and corporates that need confidentiality without giving up auditability. 

In a Tuesday release shared with Cointelegraph, StarkWare positioned the move as a way for enterprises to use a shared, open layer-2 rather than closed, bank-only networks, while working with a Big Four firm that already audits many of the organizations it wants to onboard.

The integration brings Nightfall, an open-source zero-knowledge (ZK) privacy layer built by EY, that lets transactions be verified without revealing underlying data, onto Starknet to enable private B2B and cross-border payments, confidential treasury management and 24/7 tokenized asset transfers onchain.

StarkWare said that institutions will also be able to access Ethereum DeFi for activities such as lending, swaps and yield strategies, with transactions private by default but supporting selective disclosure, auditability and Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols.

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Related: Arbitrum, Optimism and Base weigh in after Vitalik questions L2 scaling model

Starknet and Nightfall target institutional flows

StarkWare frames this as a “major breakthrough” in making public blockchains usable for institutional capital that has so far been deterred by full onchain transparency and the resulting compliance and competitive risks.

Eli Ben-Sasson, StarkWare co-founder and CEO and a founding scientist of privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC), said in the release that blockchains could give every institution “the equivalent of a private superhighway for stablecoins and tokenized deposits,” positioning Nightfall on Starknet as a concrete step toward that vision. 

Alex Gruell, StarkWare’s global head of business development, told Cointelegraph that Nightfall was “particularly useful for institutions requiring ready-to-go KYC verification as part of their onboarding to the blockchain,” and part of a broader privacy push on Starknet.

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Ethereum, Privacy, DeFi, zk-STARK, Institutions
Alex Gruell, global head of business development. Source: StarkWare

He said that while crypto native teams had “moved mountains” building ZK infrastructure, the EY-built system added a complementary layer of institutional credibility and “regulatory fluency.”

Related: Vitalik Buterin tempers vision for ETH L2s, pushes native rollups

Gruell also cast Starknet plus Nightfall as an interoperability layer between institutions, contrasting it with what he claimed are “siloed” institutional environments on rival networks, which he said “do not serve as an interoperability infrastructure,” and permissioned models such as Canton Network, which are “not yet integrated with the Web3 ecosystem.”

He stressed that Nightfall would remain permissionless and fully integrated into Starknet, with a staged rollout, where initial deployment focused on “private payments and transfers with compliance gating and secure sequencing in place,” while “verifier upgrades and expanded functionality follow as the system scales.”

Starknet’s growth and teething trouble

Starknet has steadily grown into one of the larger ZK rollups by total value locked (TVL), currently about $280 million, with usage primarily driven by DeFi protocols and native ecosystem apps. 

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At the same time, Starknet’s rapid scaling push has exposed reliability challenges. In 2025, the network suffered major outages tied to sequencer and infrastructure issues, prompting public post-mortems and commitments to harden reliability before courting more institutional flow. 

Magazine: Back to Ethereum — How Synthetix, Ronin and Celo saw the light