Crypto World
Bitcoin manipulation claims face pushback as ETFs reverse 5wk outflow
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded in a tight band this week as market participants weighed chatter about a purported “10 a.m. dump” tied to a prominent quantitative trading firm. The narrative gained traction after Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator filed a suit alleging insider trading connected to the Terra ecosystem’s May 2022 collapse. Yet data from multiple trackers points to a more diffuse market dynamic, with no single actor reliably pushing Bitcoin lower through the open, and liquidity environments shading toward ETF inflows and broader risk sentiment. On the data side, spot Bitcoin demand returned with vigor as exchange-traded products (ETPs) drew fresh capital, and institutional names continued to tilt perceptions about how crypto balance sheets are managed in a stressed environment. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has also faced its own set of pressures, including large corporate balance sheets reporting losses amid a broad downturn.
The week’s discourse extended beyond the 10 a.m. narrative. In the U.S., demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds picked up after weeks of negative flow, with several consecutive days recording inflows. Data from Farside Investors shows spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in more than $1 billion across three straight days, including $254 million on Thursday, underscoring renewed appetite among institutions and retail buyers alike. The rhythm of inflows not only suggests a stabilizing bid for Bitcoin itself but also highlights how investors are navigating the cryptoeconomy through regulated vehicles as volatility remains elevated in several corners of the market. Within this broader context, the appetite for regulated Bitcoin exposure appears to have survived the 2022–2023 era of freestanding volatility and the occasional liquidity drought that accompanied broader macro risk-off periods.
Other notable developments touched on the corporate side of Ethereum. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, a leading corporate Ether (ETH) treasury holder, appears to be sitting on a large unrealized loss, with estimates around an $8.8 billion gap between current prices and the company’s cost basis as Ether prices remained depressed. The Bitmine balance sheet illustrates how even industry participants with sizable on-chain exposure can face material impairment when token prices retreat from peaks seen in prior years. Bitmine’s holdings, tracked by third-party services, reveal an average cost basis near the mid-$3,000s per Ether, amplifying the impact of the latest price movements on the treasury’s reported economics. Despite the paper losses, Bitmine continues to accrue Ether in the portfolio, signaling a willingness to sustain a long-term stake even in a downturn environment. The broader Ether narrative continues to be shaped by ongoing network developments, regulatory scrutiny, and the evolving macro backdrop that has challenged risk assets across crypto and traditional markets.
Traders also watched notable on-chain activity linked to high-profile figures. Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin has been unloading Ether in what he described as plans to earmark roughly $45 million worth of tokens for privacy-oriented projects. Buterin’s wallets were reported to hold about 241,000 Ether early in February but declined to roughly 224,000 ETH as selling continued into the month. On-chain data indicates the majority of the sales were routed through decentralized-exchange aggregators, such as CoW Protocol, using numerous smaller swaps rather than a single large block. These patterns are consistent with a technique used by some traders to minimize market impact when converting large holdings into other assets or currencies. The disclosures add a human dimension to a market that often abstracts price action into charts and models, reminding readers that individual actors can influence the pace of selling without necessarily altering the longer-term crypto narrative.
In parallel, the market highlighted Ethereum-related corporate dynamics in another corner of the ecosystem. Bitmine’s broader Ether exposure has remained a focal point for analysts who question whether a broader structural issue could be emerging for Ether’s investment case. The situation underscores the sensitivity of corporate treasuries to price swings in ETH and the challenges of budgeting liquidity while capital markets watch for deeper shifts in DeFi and staking economics. The broader implications for corporate treasuries are not limited to Bitmine; 10x Research and other researchers have flagged that Ether is trading around levels that test whether the downturn is cyclical or signals deeper structural issues. The market’s emphasis on cost basis and unrealized losses among large corporate holders highlights the ongoing tension between long-term holdings and near-term price weakness, a dynamic that informs decisions across institutional wallets and treasury strategies.
Meanwhile, within the DeFi sector, leading lending protocols continued to expand their scale and institutional appeal. Aave, for instance, reported crossing $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume, marking a historic milestone for on-chain finance. Aave’s leadership in the space reflects a broader push to normalize DeFi as a credible input to traditional finance, with the project emphasizing its role as a foundational liquidity network. The firm’s institutional outreach has included the launch of Aave Horizon, a dedicated lending market on Ethereum designed to enable traditional finance firms and other large investors to borrow stablecoins against real-world assets. Early participants included VanEck, WisdomTree and Securitize, signaling that established asset managers are paying attention to the potential of tokenized, on-chain liquidity. In a broader context, the DeFi sector has also pointed to the possibility of tokenizing “abundance assets”—such as solar energy and robotics—though the path to mass adoption and regulatory clarity remains a work in progress. Stani Kulechov, CEO of Aave Labs, has framed the expansion as part of a long-term strategy to connect traditional finance with a scalable on-chain liquidity network, and he has publicly discussed the potential for DeFi to underpin broader financial infrastructure in the years ahead.
Crucially, the DeFi landscape continues to contend with shifting incentives. Curve Finance founder Michael Egorov argued that DeFi must move away from token emissions as the primary engine of liquidity. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Egorov contended that protocols should generate real revenue rather than rely on inflationary token incentives, noting that the DeFi “summer” era of 2020—when triple-digit TVLs drew flows into new protocols—represented a very different market environment. He argued that token velocity and speculative premiums no longer reliably translate into price increases, pointing to a broader re-prioritization of value drivers as TVL (total value locked) has fallen and liquidity becomes more costly to obtain. Data from DefiLlama shows DeFi TVL down roughly 38% over six months, with total value locking sliding from about $158 billion to around $98 billion as of this week.
Market reaction and key details
The week’s price action and commentary reflect a market that remains highly data-driven, with inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs providing a counterweight to volatility in altcoins and tokens linked to DeFi. The stronger ETF demand aligns with a broader willingness among investors to obtain regulated exposure to Bitcoin, even as macro sensitivities persist. At the same time, the narrative around a single actor’s influence—famously associated with a “10 a.m. dump”—has not withstood scrutiny from market observers who emphasize liquidity depth, hedging activity, and the role of delta-neutral strategies that blend spot purchases with offsetting futures. CryptoQuant’s head of research noted that the described activity is not unique to a single firm; the pattern of buying spot exposure while selling futures is a common tactic for funds seeking to capture spreads rather than directional price moves. The takeaway for traders is that short-term price dips are not reliable indicators of a concerted manipulation scheme, especially when liquidity flows and hedging strategies mask net exposure in public filings.
On the corporate front, Bitmine’s situation remains a focal point for those tracking Ether as a treasury asset. The company’s paper losses, coupled with Ether’s broader price motion, have raised questions about the economics of large, long-hold Ether portfolios and the risk management practices that accompany such holdings. While Bitmine continues to accumulate Ether, the scale of the paper loss underscores the challenge of navigating a downturn when large balance sheets are deeply underwater relative to their cost basis. The market will be watching whether Bitmine’s strategy evolves toward more cost-efficient accumulation or whether the firm takes a more cautious stance as price dynamics evolve.
From a systemic perspective, Aave’s milestones highlight the ongoing maturation of DeFi as a facet of institutional finance. Surpassing $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume is not just a numeral milestone; it signals a deeper level of trust among builders and users who rely on on-chain lending as part of a diversified liquidity strategy. The Horizon initiative mirrors a broader trend: traditional finance is increasingly engaging with regulated, permissioned paths to access decentralized liquidity. This alignment with institutions is likely to affect the headlines around DeFi, shaping capital flows and the pace at which new use cases—such as tokenized real-world assets—are tested in real markets. Meanwhile, Curve’s call for revenue-driven models presents a practical pivot for protocols developed during periods of token-driven growth, a shift that market participants must evaluate against ongoing competition for liquidity and funding in a tightening environment.
Why it matters
For investors, the week’s events underscore a composite picture: Bitcoin’s regulatory-friendly exposure through ETFs is expanding, while the DeFi ecosystem is increasingly defined by revenue-generating models rather than pure token incentives. This implies a potential recalibration of risk premiums and valuation frameworks as regulated products coexist with on-chain liquidity that is maturing toward more robust, revenue-backed business models.
For builders and developers, the emphasis on real revenue streams signals a shift in product design. Protocols may prioritize sustainable fee structures, cross-chain interoperability, and institutional-grade risk controls to appeal to larger asset managers and banks. The Aave Horizon launch illustrates how regulated channels can complement permissionless finance, enabling institutions to access liquidity in familiar formats while preserving the transparency and programmability that define DeFi at its core.
For corporate treasuries and risk managers, the discussion around cost basis and unrealized losses in Ether highlights the dual challenge of balancing long-term exposure with the need to monitor liquidity and price volatility. The Bitmine case, in particular, emphasizes the potential for material impairment in treasury-heavy strategies if market conditions deteriorate further. The unfolding dynamic raises questions about optimal hedging configurations, diversification across assets, and whether to pursue more active risk management in periods of extended drawdowns.
What to watch next
- Continuing ETF inflows: Watch Farside data for the next three weeks to confirm whether the momentum in spot Bitcoin ETFs persists.
- Terraform/Jane Street developments: Monitor the ongoing legal actions and any new filings related to insider-trading allegations and market impact.
- Bitmine updates: Track Bitmine’s quarterly disclosures and any changes in their Ether balance strategy or cost-basis metrics.
- Aave Horizon uptake: Observe institutional participation and any new assets added to on-chain lending markets, plus regulatory updates affecting DeFi lending.
Sources & verification
- Terraform Labs administrator filing alleging insider trading tied to Terra’s collapse (legal filing / court documents).
- Farside Investors data on US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, including the $254 million on Thursday.
- Bitmine Immersion Technologies’ Ether treasury data and reported unrealized losses (Bitminetracker / on-chain analytics).
- Vitalik Buterin’s ETH balance trajectory and on-chain sale activity (Arkham data; Lookonchain lookups).
- Aave’s cumulative lending volume milestone and information on Aave Horizon’s institutional program (Aave communications / official updates).
Market reaction and key details
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) showed resilience in the face of speculation about manipulated moves at market open, with analysts noting that a tissue of hedges and delta-neutral strategies can obscure the true net exposure of large traders. The broader takeaway is that the market did not exhibit a durable, company-driven selloff that could sustain a prolonged downturn. In parallel, the inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs—backed by data from Farside Investors—illustrate renewed demand for regulated vehicles that offer exposure to the flagship asset without requiring direct custody of coins. This demand appears to be supported by a mix of retail and institutional investors who seek the safety net of regulated products in times of cross-asset volatility. The IBIT exposure—iShares Bitcoin Trust—in particular has been a focal point for discussions about how institutions implement regulated exposure to Bitcoin, though the specifics of holdings and hedges remain part of ongoing disclosure and market interpretation.
Ethereum’s corporate dynamics continued to weigh on Ether’s price narrative. Bitmine Immersion Technologies—one of the largest corporate Ether treasuries—faces what analysts describe as a substantial paper loss, reflecting how fast-moving price action can widen gaps between market price and cost basis for large holders. The situation adds a layer of complexity to the broader ETH story, where on-chain use cases, staking economics, and regulatory considerations converge to shape long-run demand and supply. Buterin’s recent activity—selling portions of ETH to fund privacy initiatives—also underscores how even celebrated crypto figures navigate the tension between philanthropic or strategic goals and the practical realities of balance sheet management in a down market. The execution path—routing sales through CoW Protocol to avoid market impact—also highlights the sophistication of modern on-chain trading tactics and their implications for liquidity and price formation.
On the DeFi front, the milestone of surpassing $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume for Aave marks a watershed moment. It signals that the sector is increasingly viewed as a mature and scalable component of a diversified crypto finance stack. Aave Horizon’s launch, designed to attract institutional capital to real-world asset-backed lending against stablecoins, suggests a deliberate bridging of on-chain and off-chain opportunities. The focus on tangible revenue generation—rather than token emissions—reflects a broader industry shift toward sustainability and governance-driven growth, a theme echoed by Curve Finance founder Michael Egorov, who argues for a move away from inflationary incentives toward revenue-backed models. The DeFi ecosystem’s TVL decline—down about 38% over the last six months to roughly $98 billion—serves as a cautionary backdrop, reminding readers that liquidity, regulatory clarity, and the cost of capital continue to shape expectations for long-term growth.
Why it matters
For traders and investors, the week’s data emphasizes that regulated exposure and on-chain liquidity are not mutually exclusive trends. ETFs and regulated products continue to draw capital into Bitcoin, while the DeFi ecosystem demonstrates resilience through major milestones and institutional collaborations. This duality suggests that crypto markets may be entering a phase where traditional financial instruments and decentralized finance operate in closer harmony, each contributing to a more nuanced risk-adjusted landscape.
For developers and ecosystem builders, the shift toward revenue-driven models signals a need to retool incentive structures and monetize real-world utility. Projects that align fees, services, and governance with measurable revenue streams could gain greater legitimacy in the eyes of institutions and auditors. This transition is likely to shape product roadmaps, fundraising strategies, and regulatory conversations as the industry continues its evolution toward a more mature financial stack.
What to watch next
- Next round of ETF inflows and potential shifts in spot BTC demand (watch Farside data and ETF issuer updates).
- Regulatory and legal developments around Terraform Labs and Jane Street; any new allegations or disclosures could influence market sentiment.
- Bitmine’s continued Ether balance management and cost-basis updates; monitor any changes in treasury strategy.
- Institutional uptake of Aave Horizon and broader DeFi adoption signals, including new asset types and asset-backed lending markets.
Crypto World
Resolv Labs’ Stablecoin Depegs as Attacker Mints Millions of Tokens
A stablecoin linked to the crypto project Resolv Labs has fallen off its dollar peg after a deliberate exploit allowed an attacker to mint millions of USR tokens. Resolv Labs announced on X that the protocol’s functions were paused to curb further damage and that the team is working on recovery efforts. On Sunday, the attacker minted 50 million USR, apparently by depositing 100,000 worth of USDC, prompting a rapid depeg and a liquidity crunch across the USR market.
Subsequent on-chain data and posts from observers indicated additional minting of another 30 million USR, intensifying concerns about the contract’s minting logic and the integrity of the asset’s price mechanism. The incident has spilled into multiple liquidity pools, with USR trading far below its $1 target and liquidity drying up as participants moved to exit into stablecoins and other assets.
As the market absorbed the shock, D2 Finance assessed that the minting function on USR’s contract was compromised in some way—whether the oracle was gamed, the off-chain signer was breached, or the value validation between request and completion was absent. The unfolding events have underscored ongoing material risks in DeFi tokens that rely on on-chain oracles and programmable minting rules, even when paired with ostensibly simple dollar-pegged design goals.
Key takeaways
- Attacker minted 50 million USR by depositing USDC, triggering a rapid depeg from $1 and a rush to exit across multiple protocols.
- Early reports indicate a second round of minting added another 30 million USR, intensifying liquidity strain and price slippage.
- The attacker’s cash-out path moved USR into USDC and USDT, then into ETH, with signs of aggressive, high-speed liquidation across venues.
- Resolv Labs paused protocol functions to prevent further damage and is pursuing recovery; the incident highlights potential weaknesses in mint functions and cross-protocol risk controls.
- Market data shows USR trading around the high 80s of a dollar, after a flash-crash low near 2.5 cents on Curve Finance; liquidity across the USR/USDC pool has been severely disrupted.
What happened on the chain and why it matters
On-chain monitoring and social posts outline a sequence that began with a minting event: the attacker leveraged a vulnerability in USR’s contract to generate 50 million new tokens. The attacker funded this mint by placing USDC into the contract, effectively borrowing value to create new supply without tangible backing. The immediate result was a dramatic loss of confidence in USR’s peg and a wave of rapid transfers as users sought to convert USR into more stable assets.
Analysts from D2 Finance described the mint function as “broken” or inadequately protected. They elevated three possible root causes: a compromised oracle feeding price data, a breached or compromised off-chain signer authorizing minting, or simply missing or incorrectly enforced validation between the request to mint and the completion of that mint. The exact mechanism may influence how quickly the protocol can recover and what kind of remedies (including contract fixes or token burns) could restore value stability.
The incident comes amid a broader backdrop where crypto exchanges and protocols have reported a decline in February hacks, even as on-chain exploits and phishing remain persistent threats. The event with USR underscores that dollar-like stablecoins tied to smaller projects can suffer outsized volatility if the underlying minting logic is vulnerable or if market liquidity is fragile.
Market and recovery dynamics
According to observers, the attacker moved the minted USR across several protocols, swapping into stablecoins such as USDC and USDT and then converting into ETH. The exit flow fits a pattern described as a “full-speed” DeFi cashout, where an attacker prioritizes rapid liquidity withdrawal to minimize exposure to slippage and liquidity gaps across multiple venues.
As USR traded, prices showed a steep deviation from the $1 peg. In some venues, USR fetched as little as 50 cents on certain trading pairs, reflecting liquidity constraints and slippage across protocols. By early reporting, USR hovered around the upper 80-cent range, roughly 13% below the peg, with the Curve Finance USR/USDC pool recording a flash crash to around 2.5 cents at one point. The pool’s 24-hour volume stood at several million dollars, signaling that liquidity was being strained while traders sought to capitalize on temporary price dislocations. The liquidity crisis extended to other venues, as reflected in observable on-chain transaction failures tied to urgent liquidation attempts.
Resolv Labs responded by pausing protocol activities to prevent further exploitation, a step aimed at stabilizing the situation while investigators and the team’s security partners assess next steps. Observers have noted that the speed and scale of the minting and cashout imply a concerted attempt to harvest value before confidence returns, a pattern consistent with DeFi hacks that pivot toward rapid liquidity extraction.
The broader DeFi community will be watching whether Resolv Labs can implement robust fixes to the minting mechanism, restore liquidity, and restore trust in USR. The incident raises questions about whether similar vulnerabilities exist in other projects’ minting contracts and how well-layered governance, oracles, and signer architectures withstand sophisticated attacks.
What readers should watch next
Recovery trajectories in complex DeFi incidents hinge on several moving parts: contract-level security patches, post-incident audits, and the resilience of liquidity across major venues. Key areas to monitor include whether Resolv Labs can implement a secure upgrade to the USR contract, how the project handles valuation and backstopping to restore the peg, and whether any external liquidity support or governance-driven measures are deployed to stabilize the market.
Investors and users should also track updates from security researchers and exchanges, who may publish further on-chain findings, potential incident timelines, and recommended risk mitigations for similar tokens. As with many DeFi exploits, the line between on-chain vulnerabilities and off-chain governance decisions will shape both the speed and the scope of a potential recovery.
In the near term, the market will likely remain cautious around USR while the team’s recovery plan takes shape and third-party audits validate fixes to the minting logic. The event will be a reminder that even seemingly straightforward stablecoins can carry outsized risk if their core economic controls are not airtight, especially in a fast-moving, liquidity-dependent ecosystem.
Crypto World
Crypto Layoffs Surge in 2026 as Firms Slash Jobs, Blame Weak Markets and AI Integration
TLDR:
- Over 450 crypto jobs have been cut in weeks, with Gemini, Algorand, and Crypto.com leading the layoffs in early 2026.
- New crypto job postings dropped roughly 80% year-over-year, averaging just 6.5 listings per day in January 2026.
- Companies like Gemini and Crypto.com blamed AI integration for workforce reductions, shifting toward leaner operations.
- Industry experts say AI is not the real cause — collapsed sectors like restaking, DePIN, and L2s are driving most cuts.
Crypto layoffs are accelerating in early 2026, with several major firms cutting hundreds of jobs within weeks. Algorand Foundation, Gemini, Crypto.com, OP Labs, and PIP Labs have all trimmed their workforces recently.
Companies cite weak market conditions, falling token prices, and AI integration as primary reasons. New job postings on major crypto boards have dropped roughly 80% year-over-year. Industry observers warn the visible cuts may only be the beginning of a deeper contraction across the sector.
A Wave of Job Cuts Sweeps Across the Industry
The Algorand Foundation announced on Wednesday it was cutting 25% of its staff. The foundation employs fewer than 200 people, meaning roughly 50 positions were eliminated.
The company cited “the uncertain global macro environment” and a broader crypto market downturn as driving factors.
Gemini announced around 200 layoffs in February, equal to roughly a quarter of its staff. That figure climbed to 30% by mid-March.
In a shareholder letter, the company stated, “AI is now too powerful not to use at Gemini,” adding that not using AI would soon be like arriving to work with a typewriter instead of a laptop.
Crypto.com then announced it was trimming 12% of its workforce, equivalent to about 180 roles. A company spokesperson told CoinDesk, “We are joining the list of companies integrating enterprise-wide AI,” pointing to greater efficiencies that require fewer workers. CEO Kris Marszalek posted on X that companies failing to adopt AI into their processes would ultimately fail.
OP Labs, the team behind layer-2 blockchain Optimism, cut 20 employees earlier this month. PIP Labs, the team behind Story Protocol, let go of five full-time staff and three contractors. Those cuts represented approximately 10% of PIP Labs’ total workforce.
Messari, a crypto data provider now billing itself as an AI-first company, announced its third round of layoffs since 2023.
The firm once targeted a team of 1,000 analysts but now employs roughly 140 people. A CEO change also accompanied the announcement, though Messari did not disclose exact numbers.
Industry Consolidation Points to a Deeper Contraction
Excluding Messari, the companies mentioned above have announced around 450 job cuts in just a few weeks. That tally could grow, as the full scope of industry cuts typically takes months to emerge. During the crypto winter of 2022, CoinDesk tracked over 26,000 job losses across the full year.
New job postings on major crypto job boards averaged roughly 6.5 per day in January 2026. That figure is down approximately 80% compared to the same period a year earlier. The steep decline reflects a market pulling back sharply on new hiring activity.
Dan Escow, founder of crypto recruitment agency Up Top, challenged the AI-driven narrative directly. He said, “I see no real indication that these layoffs have anything to do with AI workforce replacement at scale.” He added that entire sectors like restaking, DePIN, and L2s that were once full of talent are now “basically non-existent.”
Escow further stated that companies are “forced into cost-cutting mode to buy time to figure out how to execute on whatever comes next.”
That assessment aligns with Algorand’s cuts, which hit community management and business development roles. Those are not positions typically displaced by AI tools.
Algorand’s ALGO token recently traded around $0.09, down 98% from its 2019 peak. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has lost 20% this quarter alone. M&A activity is also adding to redundancies, as acqui-hires continue displacing legacy staff across the sector.
Crypto World
Ripple linked token falls 3% as bitcoin weakness caps recovery

XRP slipped lower after another failed recovery attempt, with high-volume selling pushing the token back toward key support near $1.40.
News Background
- XRP remains stuck in a broader corrective phase that has persisted since its mid-2025 peak, with rallies consistently failing to build follow-through.
- The latest pullback comes after a brief mid-March rebound stalled below $1.60, reinforcing the pattern of lower highs that has defined price action in recent months.
- Macro conditions continue to weigh on sentiment, with crypto markets trading cautiously following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy stance. XRP’s structure remains largely technical, with traders focused on whether the token can stabilize or continue drifting lower within its established range.
Price Action Summary
- XRP fell from $1.4457 to $1.4079, down roughly 2.6%
- Price traded near $1.44–$1.45 before breaking down late in the session
- Selling accelerated on a volume spike more than 3x the daily average
- The token stabilized near $1.40 after setting a low around $1.4018
Technical Analysis
- The key move was the late-session break below $1.44 support, which triggered a sharp drop on elevated volume — a sign of active selling rather than passive drift.
- Short-term structure remains weak. XRP continues to form lower highs, and recent recovery attempts have stalled below $1.60, keeping the broader downtrend intact.
- The $1.40 area is now acting as immediate support, with buyers stepping in after the breakdown. A minor bounce has formed, but price remains below prior support levels that have now turned into resistance.
- On higher timeframes, XRP is still trading within a descending channel that has guided price since mid-2025, reinforcing the idea that rallies are corrective unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
What traders say is next?
- Traders are focused on whether XRP can hold above $1.40.
- If support stabilizes, the token may consolidate before attempting another move toward $1.44–$1.45, with a broader test near $1.55–$1.60 needed to shift momentum.
- If $1.40 breaks, downside risk opens toward the $1.30–$1.32 zone, where weaker support lies and previous moves have lacked strong buyer interest.
Crypto World
Bitcoin miners are losing $19,000 on every BTC produced as difficulty drops 7.8%
The math has turned against bitcoin miners, and the war is making it worse every week.
Checkonchain’s difficulty regression model, which estimates average production costs based on network difficulty and energy inputs, pegged the figure at $88,000 per bitcoin as of March 13.
Bitcoin is trading at $69,200 as on Sunday morning, creating a gap of nearly $19,000 per coin and meaning the average miner is operating at a 21% loss on every block produced.
The cost squeeze has been building since October’s crash took bitcoin from $126,000 to below $70,000, but the Iran war accelerated it. Oil above $100 feeds directly into electricity costs for mining operations, particularly the estimated 8-10% of global hashrate operating in energy markets sensitive to Middle Eastern supply.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows, remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic. And Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday threatening to attack Iran’s power plants added a new layer of risk for miners.
The network is already showing the stress. Difficulty dropped 7.76% on Saturday to 133.79 trillion, the second-largest negative adjustment of 2026 after February’s 11.16% plunge during Winter Storm Fern. Difficulty is now nearly 10% below where it started the year and far below November 2025’s all-time high near 155 trillion.
The hashrate has retreated to roughly 920 EH/s, well below the record 1 zetahash level reached in 2025. Average block times during the last epoch stretched to 12 minutes and 36 seconds, well above the 10-minute target.

Hashprice, the metric tracking expected miner revenue per unit of computing power, is hovering around $33.30 per petahash per second per day according to Luxor’s Hashrate Index. That’s near breakeven for most hardware and not far from the all-time low of $28 hit on Feb. 23.
When miners can’t cover costs, they sell bitcoin to fund operations. That selling adds supply pressure to a market already dealing with 43% of total supply sitting at a loss, whales distributing into rallies, and leveraged positioning dominating price action. Mining economics aren’t just a sector story. They’re a market structure story.
The publicly traded miners have been adapting by diversifying into AI and high-performance computing, which offer more predictable revenue than mining bitcoin at a loss. Marathon Digital, Cipher Mining, and others have been building out data center capacity alongside their mining operations.
The next difficulty adjustment is projected for early April and is expected to decline further according to CoinWarz data. If bitcoin stays below $88,000, and there’s no sign of a return to that level in the near term, the miner exodus continues and difficulty keeps falling.
The network self-corrects by design, making it cheaper to mine as participants leave. But the period between when costs exceed revenue and when difficulty adjusts low enough to restore profitability is where the damage happens, both to miners and to the spot market absorbing their forced selling.
Crypto World
Peter Thiel Bets on AI Farming as Founders Fund Sets to Lead Halter’s $2 Billion Raise
TLDR:
- Founders Fund is set to lead Halter’s new round, valuing the cattle AI startup at $2 billion.
- Halter’s solar-powered collars move and monitor cattle remotely using an algorithm called Cowgorithm.
- US ranchers saved $220 million in fencing costs using Halter’s 11,000-mile virtual fence network.
- Halter charges $5 to $8 per animal monthly, creating recurring revenue that scales with herd size.
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund is set to lead a new funding round for Halter, an AI-powered cattle collar startup. The round would value the Auckland-based company at more than $2 billion before new money is counted.
Halter makes solar-powered GPS collars that let farmers herd and monitor cattle remotely through a smartphone app. The deal is heavily oversubscribed and final terms may still change.
Founders Fund Places a Major Bet on AI-Driven Farming
Founders Fund’s decision to back Halter ranks among the firm’s most notable agtech moves. Peter Thiel built it into one of Silicon Valley’s most powerful venture capital firms.
Its entry into agricultural technology through Halter signals a shift in where major capital is now heading.
The round values Halter at $2 billion before new money is counted. That doubles its $1 billion valuation reached in June, when BOND led a $100 million raise. Reaching that mark in under one year is rare in any technology sector.
Halter and Founders Fund both declined to comment. Sources familiar with the matter asked not to be identified as talks remain private.
The deal is heavily oversubscribed, meaning demand exceeded what Halter originally sought. The final round size remains undetermined.
Founders Fund’s entry comes as the agtech sector recovers from a prolonged slump. Many agricultural technology companies declared bankruptcy in recent years as adoption lagged.
Halter has been a consistent exception, growing steadily while others failed. That track record drew Founders Fund’s attention.
One widely shared post captured the product’s appeal simply: “A farmer opens an app, taps a button, and 600,000 cows across three countries start walking toward the milking station on their own.” For Thiel’s firm, it reflects a belief that AI in farming can deliver outsized returns.
What Founders Fund Is Betting On Inside Halter’s Technology
Halter’s product is a solar-powered GPS collar worn by cattle. Farmers manage herds through an app sending vibration and audio cues to each collar.
A single tap moves a herd to a milking station with no dogs, fences, or labor needed. The company trademarked this system as the “Cowgorithm.”
Each collar tracks digestion, fertility cycles, and health patterns around the clock. Machine learning models trained on hundreds of thousands of animals power these features.
US ranchers have mapped over 11,000 miles of virtual fencing, saving an estimated $220 million in physical fencing costs.
Halter charges farmers between $5 and $8 per animal per month. As more cattle are collared, revenue compounds and customer retention deepens.
This mirrors the subscription frameworks that firms like Founders Fund know well. Recurring revenue tied to a growing animal base makes for a compelling investment profile.
Halter was founded by Craig Piggott, a former rocket engineer at Rocket Lab. “The goal was to make pasture farming more sustainable and productive using technology,” he told Bloomberg in 2024. His engineering background shaped both the collar hardware and the algorithm driving it.
The company is based in Auckland and has opened a Colorado office to support US expansion. That move reflects growing demand from American ranchers adopting precision farming tools.
Founders Fund is now betting that Piggott’s vision for agriculture is as transformative as anything the firm has previously backed.
Crypto World
Bitcoin drops below $69,200 as Trump gives 48-hour ultimatum on Iran power plants
Bitcoin has given back last week’s gains in a single weekend.
The largest cryptocurrency slid to $69,192 on Sunday morning, down 2.2% over the past 24 hours and 3.1% on the week, after U.S. president Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran late Saturday demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on the country’s power plants.
Trump said he would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants, beginning with the largest, if the strait wasn’t opened to commercial shipping.
The threat marks a dramatic escalation from Friday, when Trump said he was thinking about “winding down” the military operation. Going from winding down to threatening civilian infrastructure in 24 hours whipsawed a market that had spent the previous week building confidence around de-escalation.
The liquidation data shows how one-sided the positioning was heading into the weekend. CoinGlass data shows $299 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours across 84,239 traders, with long liquidations accounting for $254 million, roughly 85% of the total.
Bitcoin longs took $122 million in damage. Ether longs lost $95.7 million. The largest single liquidation was a $10 million BTC-USDT swap on OKX. The lopsided ratio confirms the market was leaning heavily bullish after eight consecutive days of gains heading into the weekend, leaving it vulnerable to exactly this kind of headline shock.
Major tokens fell in lockstep, meanwhile. Ether dropped 1.8% to $2,114, XRP lost 2.5% to $1.41, BNB slid 1.4% to $633, solana fell 2.1% to $88.55, and dogecoin lost 2.7% to $0.092. The only majors green on the week were ether at 0.8% and solana at 0.7%. Everything else is red over seven days.
The 48-hour window means the deadline arrives Monday evening. If Iran doesn’t comply, and there’s no indication it will, the market faces the prospect of strikes on power infrastructure, which would be the first direct targeting of civilian energy systems in the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic, with roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows still disrupted.
Last week’s rally to $75,912 now looks like it was built on ceasefire speculation that evaporated over the weekend. The Fed held rates on Wednesday with a dovish lean that should have supported risk assets, but the persistent risk of war headlines has traders holding back from making outsized directional bets.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Options Market Hits Highest Defensive Levels Since 2021, VanEck Report Shows
TLDR:
- Bitcoin put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, its highest reading since China banned mining in June 2021.
- Put premiums relative to BTC spot volume hit an all-time high of 4 basis points, tripling mid-2022 levels.
- Historical data shows D9 skew decile has produced average 90-day BTC returns of +13.2%, the strongest of all deciles.
- Aggregate miner BTC balances sit at 684,000 BTC, with miners selling nearly all newly issued supply over the past year.
Bitcoin markets entered a consolidation phase following a sharp price drawdown in early 2026. VanEck’s mid-March Bitcoin ChainCheck report reveals deeply defensive positioning across derivatives markets.
The put/call open interest ratio reached its highest level since June 2021. Realized volatility dropped from 80 to 50, while futures funding rates fell to 2.7%. Onchain activity declined broadly as miner revenues came under pressure.
Bitcoin Options Positioning Reflects Elevated Demand for Downside Protection
Bitcoin options markets are showing an unusual level of caution among investors. The put/call open interest ratio peaked at 0.84 and averaged 0.77 over the past month.
This places the metric in the 91st percentile of all observations recorded since mid-2019. The last time the ratio reached these levels was June 2021, when China banned Bitcoin mining.
Total put premiums over the past 30 days reached approximately $685 million. That figure represents a 24% decline month-over-month, yet it still exceeds 77% of monthly readings since early 2025.
Relative to spot volume, put premiums hit an all-time high of roughly 4 basis points. This is about three times the levels seen after the Terra/Luna collapse in mid-2022.
Meanwhile, call option premiums fell roughly 12% to around $562 million. This decline further confirms a broad shift toward protective positioning in the market.
Total options open interest still rose 3% month-over-month to $33.4 billion. Futures leverage, however, remained subdued throughout the period.
VanEck’s report also examined the put/call premiums paid ratio, which reached 2.0 for the 30-day period ending March 3, 2026. Implied volatility on puts averaged around 66, sitting approximately 16 points above realized volatility.
Historically, skew readings at this decile have preceded average 90-day Bitcoin returns of +13.2%. Average 360-day returns from similar readings came in at +133.2%.
Onchain Activity and Miner Economics Show Broad Pressure
Onchain network activity declined across nearly every major metric over the past month. Transfer volume fell 31%, while total daily fees dropped 27%.
Daily active addresses declined 5%, and mean transaction fees fell by 40%. Transaction count was the only category that posted a modest increase.
A growing share of Bitcoin trading now occurs through ETPs, derivatives, and centralized exchanges. As a result, traditional onchain metrics may no longer capture total market activity accurately.
This shift makes it harder to use network data alone as a sentiment indicator. The trend reflects Bitcoin’s increasing financialization across institutional markets.
On the miner side, total revenues declined 11% over the past month. Mining equities fell roughly 7%, pointing to weaker profitability across the sector.
Miner outflows to exchanges rose only 1% in Bitcoin terms. Most operators appear to be managing reserves carefully rather than liquidating holdings.
Aggregate miner balances currently sit at approximately 684,000 BTC, down only 0.5% year-over-year. Over the same period, roughly 164,000 new BTC were mined and effectively sold.
Long-term holder transfer volume declined across every age cohort during the period. Active long-term Bitcoin supply also edged down from 31% to 30%.
Crypto World
Resolv Labs’ Stablecoin Depegs Amid Exploit
A stablecoin tied to the crypto project Resolv Labs has lost its peg to the US dollar after an attacker was able to exploit the token’s contract to create millions of tokens for themselves.
Resolv Labs posted to X on Sunday that it had experienced an exploit that allowed an attacker to mint 50 million unbacked Resolv USR (USR). “The team has currently paused all the protocol functions to prevent further malicious actions and is actively working on recovery,” it added.
The X account “yieldsandmore” had posted to the platform earlier on Sunday that USR had crashed after on-chain data showed an attacker was able to mint 50 million USR by depositing $100,000 worth of the stablecoin USDC (USDC).
The attacker was also able to mint an additional 30 million USR tokens, according to the crypto security company PeckShield.
The crypto fund D2 Finance said that the minting function on USR’s contract was somehow broken. “Either the oracle was gamed, the off-chain signer was compromised, or the amount validation between request and completion is simply missing,” it added.

The exploit comes after crypto-related hacks declined sharply in February, with $49 million lost to exploits over the month, compared to $385 million in January, with attackers increasingly preferring phishing scams over protocol exploits.
Attacker cashing out “at full speed” depegs USR
D2 Finance said the attacker quickly moved the 50 million USR they minted to multiple crypto protocols, swapping the tokens for the stablecoins USDC and USDt (USDT) before “aggressively” converting them to Ether (ETH).
“The attacker’s exit playbook is textbook DeFi hack cashout running at full speed,” it said.
D2 Finance added that USR was selling as low as 50 cents on some trades as liquidity and slippage worsened across protocols, with “multiple failed transactions visible on-chain showing the urgency.”
The firm estimated that the attacker was able to extract around $25 million from the attack amid USR’s depeg.
Related: Google Threat Intel flags ‘Ghostblade’ crypto-stealing malware
USR is currently trading at around 87 cents, around 13% off from the $1 peg the token aims to maintain, according to CoinGecko.
The token had crashed to a low of 2.5 cents on a USR/USDC pool on the protocol Curve Finance, USR’s most liquid pool with a 24-hour volume of $3.6 million, per DEX Screener.

USR hit its bottom on Curve at 2:38 am UTC on Sunday, just 17 minutes after the attacker minted $50 million worth of the token. The pool has since recovered to trade at 84.5 cents.
Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops
Crypto World
Nevada Court Temporarily Blocks Kalshi from Operating in Nevada
A Nevada judge has halted Kalshi from operating in the state for now, ruling that the company’s prediction-market contracts could violate Nevada gambling laws by serving as unlicensed sports pools. The temporary restraining order (TRO) lasts 14 days and follows a Nevada Gaming Control Board action aimed at blocking Kalshi’s activity while the case unfolds.
In issuing the TRO, Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury aligned with the state regulator’s position that Kalshi’s sports, election and entertainment event contracts may require a state license. Nevada Gaming Control Board Chair Mike Dreitzer said the board’s duty is to protect the public when prediction markets “facilitate unlicensed gambling,” a point he emphasized when speaking to Reuters about the ruling.
The decision arrives the same week that a federal appeals court denied Kalshi’s emergency bid to stay a parallel federal court proceeding, effectively allowing Nevada regulators to proceed with their actions in state court. Kalshi has argued that its contracts fall under the exclusive purview of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a stance that has been contested in multiple state forums.
Key takeaways
- The court’s TRO blocks Kalshi from offering sports, election and entertainment-related event contracts in Nevada for 14 days, pending a preliminary injunction hearing.
- Judge Woodbury found the early record suggests such contracts could be classified as a “sports pool” under Nevada law, a category Kalshi has not been licensed to operate.
- The panel signaled skepticism toward Kalshi’s federal preemption argument, indicating that, at this stage, the balance of authority weighs against preemption in this context.
- A preliminary injunction hearing is set for April 3 to determine whether Kalshi can continue operating in Nevada while the broader dispute proceeds.
Nevada’s view and Kalshi’s legal posture
The Nevada Gaming Control Board filed suit last month, contending that Kalshi needed a state license to offer its contract-based prediction markets for sports and related events. The board’s position rests on the premise that such offerings amount to gambling activities that fall within Nevada’s licensing framework. Kalshi has argued that its products are regulated by the federal CFTC, and that federal preemption should bar state-level licensing claims in this arena.
Judge Woodbury’s ruling frames the question as a nuanced, evolving area of law. In his order, he noted that, at the moment, state and federal authorities have not reached a settled consensus on how prediction markets should be treated under preemption doctrine. He concluded that, for now, the balance of legal authority does not favor Kalshi’s preemption argument in the Nevada context.
The court’s decision places Kalshi in a tense position in a state where regulators have long maintained strict oversight of gambling-like activities. The TRO does not resolve the larger question of whether Kalshi can operate in Nevada at all; it merely freezes activity while the injunction request is litigated.
Kalshi has pursued its own legal strategy in other jurisdictions, including filings designed to preemptively challenge potential enforcement actions by various states. Separately, Kalshi’s opponents in other states have taken measures to restrict the company’s offerings; for example, a Massachusetts judge earlier banned Kalshi from offering sports event contracts, a ruling that was later lifted on appeal. The Arizona attorney general has also pursued criminal charges against Kalshi, accusing the platform of running an illegal gambling operation—a charge Kalshi’s leadership has rejected as an overstep.
As the Nevada matter advances, observers are watching how the two tracks—state licensing enforcement and federal preemption theory—will influence Kalshi’s expansion plans and the broader regulatory risk facing prediction markets in the United States.
Earlier coverage tied Kalshi’s case to similar disputes in other states and highlighted how regulators have increasingly scrutinized prediction-market operators. The appellate decision denying Kalshi’s emergency request in the federal case underscores the uphill path for operators seeking shelter behind federal preemption in a patchwork state-by-state regime.
For investors and builders in the prediction-market space, the Nevada decision reinforces the importance of understanding licensing regimes at the state level and remaining mindful of evolving federal-state tensions in the sector. The outcome of the April 3 hearing will be a key signal of where the regulatory balance currently stands and what it could mean for Kalshi’s ability to operate nationwide.
What comes next in the Kalshi saga
With the temporary pause in place, Kalshi must await the court’s ruling on the preliminary injunction. If the injunction is granted, Kalshi would face a longer halt while the broader dispute over licensing, preemption and regulatory authority is resolved. If denied, Kalshi could resume activity in Nevada under any court-specified conditions or timelines.
Beyond Nevada, the case adds to a growing calendar of state-level actions and civil actions that have tested the legality of prediction markets in the United States. The Massachusetts and Arizona developments, in particular, illustrate the divergent approaches states are taking toward enforcement and criminal risk, underscoring a landscape where operators must navigate a mosaic of rules rather than a single national framework.
As regulators weigh calls for clearer guidelines, the next months will be critical for Kalshi’s strategic planning and for market participants who rely on prediction markets for hedging and pricing diverse outcomes. The April 3 hearing will be a focal point for clarifying whether Kalshi can continue to offer its existing suites of contracts in Nevada or whether broader licensing changes will be required to operate there in the near term.
In the meantime, traders and developers should monitor not only the Nevada case but also the evolving federal-state dialogue on preemption, licensing, and the precise contours of what constitutes gambling in prediction markets. The outcome could shape the pace at which prediction markets scale in the United States and influence how regulators balance consumer protection with innovation.
Sources cited in coverage include Reuters’ reporting on the Nevada TRO and Kalshi’s ongoing legal battles, as well as prior reporting on Kalshi’s status in other states.
Reuters reporting on the Nevada TRO and regulator comments and coverage of the appeals court denial provide context for the broader regulatory arc Kalshi faces as it eyes expansion beyond Nevada.
Crypto World
Iran Threatens Gulf Water Supply as Trump’s 48-Hour Ultimatum Targets Iranian Power Grid
TLDR:
- Iran warns Gulf desalination plants will be targeted if the US strikes its national power grid.
- Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain rely on desalination for up to 99 percent of their daily drinking water.
- The Gulf region produces 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water across 56 vulnerable coastal plants.
- Strikes on Jubail, the world’s largest desalination complex, could cut water access across Saudi Arabia.
Gulf desalination infrastructure is at the center of a rapidly escalating standoff between the United States and Iran. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum threatening to destroy Iran’s national power grid.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi and military officials responded with warnings to attack Gulf desalination plants. The mutual crisis now threatens tens of millions of civilians on both sides. Neither side can execute its threat without triggering a devastating response from the other.
Iran Warns of Strikes on Gulf Water Facilities
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi and military officials issued warnings through the Tasnim news agency. They stated that any US strike on Iranian power plants would trigger immediate retaliation.
Gulf energy infrastructure and desalination facilities were named as the primary targets. The warning came after Trump’s ultimatum threatened Iranian civilian power generation.
In a widely shared post, journalist Shanaka Perera outlined the region’s deep dependence on desalinated water. He noted that Kuwait sources 90 percent of its drinking water from desalination.
Qatar relies on desalination for nearly 99 percent of its water supply. Bahrain draws 85 percent, and Saudi Arabia depends on desalination for 70 percent.
The Gulf region collectively produces 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water. Some 400 facilities operate across the region, with output concentrated in 56 large coastal plants.
These plants sit within 350 kilometres of Iranian launch positions. They are open-air industrial complexes with no military fortification.
A missile strike on the Jubail complex in Saudi Arabia could cut water to Riyadh. Jubail is the world’s largest desalination facility, supplying water to the capital.
Riyadh has no rivers or natural groundwater reserves to replace the supply. Without desalination, large-scale evacuation would become the only available option.
A Circular Threat With No Safe Exit
The 48-hour ultimatum was set to expire on March 23. If the United States strikes Iranian power plants, Iran has stated it will retaliate against Gulf desalination plants.
Gulf water supplies could collapse within days of such a strike. Millions of Gulf residents would face a water emergency with no quick solution.
Precedent for targeting water infrastructure already exists within this conflict. On March 7, strikes damaged a desalination plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island, cutting water to 30 villages.
An Iranian drone struck a Bahraini water facility the following day. Both sides have already hit water infrastructure during the current escalation.
Twenty-three nations signed the Hormuz statement calling on Iran to halt hostilities. Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar are among the signatories of that document.
These countries depend on desalination for the majority of their daily water supply. Iran responded to the statement by naming their water infrastructure as a retaliatory target.
The threat pattern creates a cycle of destruction with no clear endpoint. Iranian hospitals could lose power while Gulf hospitals simultaneously lose water access.
Both scenarios would produce mass civilian harm within days of any exchange. Water, not oil, has become the resource that transforms this conflict into a humanitarian emergency.
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