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Bitcoin miner MARA moves $87 million BTC to various trading desks and exchanges

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(Arkham)

Bitcoin miner MARA moved 1,318 BTC worth about $86.89 million to a mix of counterparties and custody venues over the past 10 hours, onchain data tracked by Arkham shows.

The biggest slice went to Two Prime. One transfer sent 653.773 BTC, around $42.01 million, to a Two Prime tagged address, alongside a smaller 8.999 BTC top up worth about $578,000 just minutes later.

Separate outbound transactions sent 200 BTC and 99.999 BTC to a BitGo tagged address, together about $20.4 million at the time of transfer, while another 305 BTC moved to a fresh address, worth roughly $20.72 million.

(Arkham)

(Arkham)
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The flow matters mainly because of timing. Crypto markets have been swinging hard since this week’s liquidation driven selloff, and traders are on edge for any sign that miners are turning into forced sellers.

Large miner related transfers can be routine treasury management, custody reshuffling, collateral moves, or preparation for an over the counter sale, but in a thin market they often get read as a supply signal.

The Two Prime leg will draw the most attention because it is a credit and trading counterparty. If the bitcoin is being posted as collateral or rotated into a strategy, it does not necessarily imply spot selling.

The transfers comes amid a tough period for miners, with bitcoin down nearly 50% from peak prices above $126,000 last year.

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Bitcoin is now approximately 20% below its estimated average production cost, as CoinDesk reported Thursday, increasing financial pressure across the BTC mining sector.

The average cost to mine one bitcoin is around $87,000, according to data from Checkonchain, while the spot price has fallen toward a weekly low of $60,000 Historically, trading below production cost has been a feature of a bear market.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Tests Key Level as Compression Builds Toward $80K

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Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing the $71,500 pivot, a key level across multiple timeframes and analysts noted that price action is tilted toward a possible rally to $80,000.

As traders remain split between futures-driven speculation and weak spot demand, Bitcoin has tested the $71,500 inflection point four times in the past seven days. A positive is that the price has held above the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the four-hour chart, but the 50-day EMA on the daily chart continues to act as a level of resistance.

Will $80,000 be Bitcoin’s next stop?

Crypto trader Skew described the position as a “compression zone,” where the tightening price range and trading may lead to a strong directional move.

A bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern is also forming on the four-hour chart, with $71,500 acting as the neckline. 

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Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
BTC/USDT on the four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A confirmed breakout places the immediate technical target near monthly highs at $76,000, a 7.35% move from current levels. Market analyst Mikybull extends this projection toward $80,000.

Another onchain signal points to the possibility of a 10% to 14% Bitcoin rally. The seven-day standard deviation of short-term holder realized profit and loss flows to Binance dropped to 255 on March 24, returning to a level seen before prior rallies.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
Bitcoin’s short-term realized profit/loss pressure on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

A similar reading near 277 on Feb. 27 was followed by a 14% rise, while a level around 289 in late December preceded a near 10% gain. The current compression shows a decline in sell-side volatility, with the short-term holder distribution becoming more controlled.

Related: Bitcoin holders shift from panic to cash-buffer discipline as volatility deepens

Bitcoin orderflow data remains split

The recent price strength followed market optimism tied to a potential ceasefire in the US and Israel-Iran war, but on Wednesday, Iran rejected the US peace proposal and outlined its own conditions for ending the conflict, according to the Kobeissi Letter.

BTC held steady through the update, while sensitivity to the US dollar strength and energy prices continues to guide short-term reactions.

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The derivatives positioning shows increased activity. BTC open interest (in terms of USD) has risen by $500 million to $16.5 billion over the past 24 hours, with funding rates turning positive at 0.03% since Monday. The latest rally toward $70,000 was driven largely by futures markets. 

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
BTC aggregated spot volume, open interest, Coinbase premium. Source: velo.data

The spot participation lags, with a weak aggregate cumulative volume delta of -$87 million and a negative Coinbase premium signaling softening US-based demand. Thus, the order flow data points to a distributive nature between buyers and sellers across the spot and futures markets. 

Skew explained that for Bitcoin to sustain a breakout above $71,500, the rally needs to be backed by stronger underlying demand, specifically, strong buyer support, steady accumulation, and continued absorption of selling pressure from short traders. 

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
$60 million BTC bid filled. Source: Skew/X

A $60 million bid was filled during the New York session, highlighting renewed demand, but a clear follow-through is needed for the price to retain a bullish structure above $71,500.

Related: Bitcoin rebounds during Iran war, but safe haven role unproven