Crypto World
Bitcoin Options Market Signals $60K Retest in February
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) faced renewed selling pressure after failing to clear the $71,000 threshold, slipping toward the $66,000 zone that had provided support in the prior days. The move comes as options markets reveal growing caution among professional traders who are paying a premium for downside protection while hedging risk in a mixed macro backdrop. Despite strength in equities and gold, institutional risk appetite appears to have cooled, with market participants scrutinizing potential catalysts for a deeper pullback. Data during the week showed traders defending the $66k line, but buyers did not mount a decisive comeback, leaving the door open to a retest of lower levels. The dynamic underscores a broader tension between bullish sentiment that sparked a recent rally and a risk-off mood that has crept into crypto trading.
Key takeaways
- Professional traders are paying a 13% premium for downside protection as Bitcoin struggles to maintain support above $66,000.
- While stocks and gold remain resilient, $910 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows since Feb. 11 signal rising institutional caution amid macro uncertainty.
- Put options dominated Deribit activity, with bear diagonal spreads, short straddles and short risk reversals among the most traded strategies in the last 48 hours.
- The delta skew between put and call options remained unconventionally bearish, suggesting traders are hedging against downside moves rather than betting on immediate upside.
- Stablecoin dynamics point to modest outflows, with a 0.2% discount to parity relative to USD/CNY, improving from a prior 1.4% discount.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. A break below key support and persistent hedging pressure hint at further near-term softness for Bitcoin.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The market backdrop remains tethered to macro cues and evolving ETF flows, so a cautious stance is warranted until clearer catalysts emerge.
Market context: The narrative surrounding Bitcoin is increasingly entwined with broader liquidity concerns, risk sentiment shifts, and ETF flow dynamics that continue to influence institutional exposure amid a volatile macro environment.
Why it matters
For market participants, the current configuration—soft price ceilings around $71,000 giving way to a test of the lower band near $66,000, alongside a persistent premium on downside hedges—highlights a fragile balance between optimism and risk management. The 13% delta skew in put versus call options signals that professional traders are prioritizing protection over speculative bets, which can compress upside opportunities if selling accelerates. This is not merely a Bitcoin story; it reflects how institutions are sizing risk in a backdrop of mixed signals from equities, precious metals, and cross-asset liquidity conditions.
The ETF backdrop compounds the narrative. With US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recording about $910 million in net outflows since Feb. 11, traders are re-evaluating the appetite of large funds to hold or add exposure through traditional wrappers. While broad U.S. equities and gold have shown resilience, crypto-specific demand appears tempered, underscoring the pace at which macro concerns can seep into digital-asset markets. The dislocation between crypto price action and broader risk assets underscores a broader market mood: crypto remains highly sensitive to capital allocation shifts, even as some macro indicators remain supportive for risk-taking in other sectors.
In this environment, traders are not simply playing for a bounce; they are positioning for a potential downside scenario without incurring significant upfront costs. The behavior of the Deribit order book—where bear diagonals, short straddles, and short risk reversals dominated activity in the last 48 hours—illustrates a risk-off posture that seeks to profit from limited price movement in Bitcoin while capping potential losses if liquidation accelerates. The strategy mix effectively lowers the upfront cost of a bearish bet while exposing traders to the risk of a sharp decline, a combination that speaks to growing caution rather than outright pessimism about a rapid collapse.
Beyond price action, the stablecoin channel offers another lens into market sentiment. A 0.2% discount relative to USD/CNY—versus a neutral 0.5% to 1% premium expected under normal conditions—points to moderate outflows or a cautious stance on offshore capital flows. This dynamic can reflect tighter risk appetite in the near term, even as on-chain activity and other on-ramp/off-ramp metrics present a more nuanced picture. The comparison to a prior 1.4% discount earlier in the week signals a partial stabilization, yet it remains a reminder that stablecoin markets often act as a liquid proxy for risk tolerance amid turbulent conditions.
The ETF dynamic remains central to the narrative. While the broader macro environment has not collapsed, crypto-specific inflows have cooled, suggesting that institutional demand for Bitcoin via exchange-traded vehicles is not currently robust enough to sustain a bullish tilt. In parallel, reference to industry coverage suggests that Bitcoin ETFs still sit on substantial net inflows overall—though not enough to offset the near-term outflows and price softness—highlighting a tension between longer-term demand signals and short-term sentiment shifts.
As the market digests these signals, a key question remains: will Bitcoin defend the $66,000 floor, or will sellers reassert control and push the price toward the next set of targets? The answer may hinge on a confluence of factors, including upcoming options activity, regulatory developments, and macro catalysts that can alter the risk calculus for institutions. In the near term, the balance of evidence points to a cautious posture among traders, with hedges and selective exposure dominating the narrative rather than broad-based buying appetite.
Overall, the current environment underscores the complexity of pricing risk in a market where crypto-specific headlines can swing quickly, while cross-asset indicators offer a more tempered read. The juxtaposition of a resilient stock market and a fragile crypto setup creates a dynamic in which investors may rotate away from high-beta crypto exposure until a clearer catalyst emerges. In this sense, Bitcoin’s fate in the weeks ahead will likely depend as much on external liquidity and macro cues as on internal crypto-specific developments, with options markets acting as a barometer for the evolving risk appetite among sophisticated participants.
What to watch next
- Watch Deribit option flows and delta skew in the coming days for signs of renewed hedging or a shift toward riskier bets.
- Monitor Bitcoin ETF net flows over the next two weeks to gauge institutional appetite and potential catalysts for price moves.
- Track stablecoin market dynamics (premium/discount to USD) as a proxy for offshore risk sentiment and liquidity conditions.
- Assess macro catalysts (regulatory developments, inflation data, or Fed commentary) that could reframe risk appetite for crypto assets.
SOURCES & verification
- Deribit option activity and delta skew data cited in Laevitas data (bear diagonal spreads, short straddle, short risk reversal as top strategies over the past 48 hours).
- Stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY data (OKX) as an indicator of on-chain/FX-related risk flows.
- $910 million in total outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs since Feb. 11; reference to recent ETF flow coverage.
- Bitcoin ETF inflow/outflow context and comparisons to gold and the S&P 500 performance as macro backdrop.
- Bloomberg report noting that Bitcoin ETFs still sit on $53B in net inflows despite recent outflows (as a broader ETF context).
Bitcoin options reflect risk-off mood as ETF outflows weigh on price
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is moving in a cautious mode as buyers struggle to push through the $71,000 barrier, with the asset testing the lower support near $66,000. The latest data indicates that professional traders are prioritizing downside hedges, evident in the premium paid for put options and the selective use of bearish strategies on Deribit. In a market where equities and bullion have shown resilience, crypto traders appear to be prioritizing risk management over speculative bets, a stance reinforced by notable ETF outflows and a cautious stance toward new positions.
The premium structure in the option market—specifically a 13% put premium relative to calls on a recent trading day—suggests a market not confident in a rapid revival of momentum. This condition aligns with the broader narrative of risk-off sentiment, where hedges are favored as a way to mitigate the potential for a sharper drawdown should volatility spike or macro catalysts disappoint. The existence of bearish formations such as bear diagonals, short straddles, and short risk reversals among the most active trades over the last two days further underscores a cautious posture among institutional participants who are navigating a delicate balance between preserving capital and seeking incremental exposure.
The ETF story adds another layer of nuance. With $910 million in net outflows since Feb. 11, the flow data reflects a degree of institutional hesitation that cannot be fully explained by price alone. While gold and the broader stock market have been robust, crypto-specific demand appears to be cooling, at least in the near term. The divergence between crypto price action and the appetite of large funds to deploy capital in standard wrappers is a telling indicator of how investors are reassessing risk in a landscape where cross-asset liquidity can tighten quickly, especially in times of macro uncertainty.
On stablecoins, a modest 0.2% discount to parity relative to USD/CNY signals a transitional phase in which cross-border liquidity and currency controls influence how capital moves in and out of crypto markets. That said, the improvement from a prior 1.4% discount suggests some stabilization, but it remains to be seen whether this will translate into stronger on-chain demand or simply reflect a temporary reprieve in selling pressure.
For the broader market, the “risk-off but not outright bearish” stance in Bitcoin contrasts with the relative strength seen elsewhere. A comparison of market conditions suggests that the crypto sector remains more reactive to liquidity flows and sentiment shifts than to standalone fundamental catalysts. This dynamic can produce outsized volatility within short windows, even as longer-term macro considerations remain in flux. Investors and traders alike should stay vigilant for any shifts in ETF flows, option activity, or regulatory signals that could reconfigure the risk premium embedded in BTC and related instruments.
Tech investor Balaji Srinivasan, a former Coinbase chief technology officer, is urging the crypto industry to forge more financial tools for refugees and stateless populations. In a Saturday X post, he emphasized that global conflicts and economic migration can swell displacement figures, pointing to Ukrainians fleeing war and workers departing Gulf states amid mounting regional tensions as illustrative cases. He argued that cryptocurrency infrastructure could supply essential financial rails when traditional institutions falter or become inaccessible, offering livelihoods and liquidity to those cut off from conventional banking networks. The moment signals a broader conversation about crypto’s potential humanitarian role, beyond speculative trading and borderless payments.
Key takeaways
- Balaji Srinivasan frames crypto as a critical tool for refugees, advocating product development tailored to stateless populations.
- The argument hinges on crypto’s resilience in adverse conditions, described as a “wartime mode for the internet.”
- Andi Duro of TwoCents cautions that the industry has rarely built refugee-focused solutions, citing misaligned incentives in the market.
- Progress exists in stablecoins’ reach, with USDC emerging as a borderless digital currency; reported metrics show large supply growth amid regional capital movements.
- Analysts connect stablecoin dynamics to capital flight, including in the UAE, where real estate volatility has influenced crypto flows.
Tickers mentioned: $USDC
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. The discussion centers on humanitarian finance and infrastructure, not immediate price moves.
Market context: The discourse sits at the intersection of humanitarian needs, macro capital flows, and evolving stablecoin dynamics, a period when liquidity and trust in borderless digital rails are being stress-tested against geopolitical risk and regulatory scrutiny.
Why it matters
The propositions raised by Srinivasan underscore a broader reckoning within crypto: its potential to serve as a life-supporting financial layer when fiat rails are stressed or severed. Refugees and stateless individuals often rely on untrusted or fragile payment systems, and a decentralized, permissionless network could in theory offer access to savings, remittances, and basic liquidity where traditional banks fail to operate. By reframing crypto as a humanitarian technology rather than solely a speculative instrument, the industry could expand its utility and widen its social license among policymakers, aid organizations, and displaced communities.
On the substance of progress, there is acknowledgement that crypto has already seen some utility growth through stablecoins, especially a dominant USD-pegged token that has achieved widespread use across borders. As cited in industry reporting, the stablecoin market has surged in recent weeks, with circulating supply and market capitalization tracking toward record levels. In particular, the ecosystem’s borderless digital money concept has started to gain traction among users who need fast, low-cost transfers that do not depend on traditional correspondent banking networks. This development is not purely transactional; it also signals a broader shift in how communities facing disruption think about access to financial services. See the USDC price index for current data and context, and related analyses documenting the stablecoin’s expanding footprint, including discussions about capital movements in the Middle East and beyond.
Meanwhile, the UAE has figured prominently in conversations about capital flight and crypto usage. A Dubai-based analyst noted that turbulence in the real estate sector has contributed to shifting capital flows, which some observers link to heightened activity in borderless digital currencies. The real estate market index referenced in regional analyses has trended downward since the onset of regional tensions, a dynamic that dovetails with broader questions about how crypto can provide liquidity channels in volatile markets. These observations echo a wider debate about how policymakers should approach stablecoins and cross-border payments while ensuring consumer protection and financial stability.
Beyond humanitarian implications, the discourse is also framed against a broader crypto policy backdrop. For instance, discussions about how digital assets intersect with national security, monetary sovereignty, and financial inclusion are amplifying in legislative forums. A separate policy thread has examined the potential use cases for prediction markets related to geopolitical events, underscoring how technology platforms could influence risk assessment and decision-making in crisis contexts. The tension between fostering innovation and maintaining regulatory guardrails remains a defining feature of the current landscape. The link to related policy discussions provides additional context on how lawmakers view the balance between experimentation and oversight.
Ultimately, the conversation centers on whether crypto developers and entrepreneurs can translate a doctrine of resilience into real-world tools that assist people who are most vulnerable to disruption. The call to action is not merely to build faster payments or cheaper transfers, but to design interfaces and fiducial structures that can function under duress, with clear governance and robust privacy protections. If the industry can align incentives around humanitarian use cases, the result could be a more inclusive crypto ecosystem that extends its benefits beyond early adopters to those who have historically been excluded from formal financial systems.
What to watch next
- Announcements of refugee-focused crypto tooling or pilots from wallets, remittance platforms, or humanitarian organizations.
- Regulatory developments shaping stablecoins and cross-border payments, particularly in regions with rising displacement pressures.
- Updates on USDC and other stablecoins’ global supply dynamics, including any official disclosures about new markets or regulatory compliance arrangements.
- Further commentary from Balaji Srinivasan and other industry voices on wartime internet resilience and humanitarian finance.
- Regulatory or legislative steps related to prediction markets or crisis-related financial instruments that could influence crypto-backed risk transfer tools.
Sources & verification
- Balaji Srinivasan’s X post referenced in discussion of refugee-focused crypto tooling.
- Andi Duro, founder of TwoCents, on crypto’s deployment for refugees and the critique of current product focus.
- USDC price index for current stablecoin metrics and liquidity context.
- USDC market cap near $80B and related analysis on UAE capital flight and capital dynamics.
- Article on Bitcoin’s geopolitical stress test and price movement referenced in related context.
Balaji Srinivasan calls on crypto builders to serve refugees amid rising displacement
In the current climate of intensified conflicts and ongoing economic migration, Balaji Srinivasan argues that crypto should advance beyond hype and toward practical humanitarian applications. He frames this as a strategic shift for an industry often defined by rapid innovation and speculative sentiment. By urging developers to focus on refugee-accessible financial tools, he positions crypto as a potential backstop for people who lose reliable access to conventional financial rails during crises. The call aligns with a broader conversation about the role of public blockchains in sustaining economic activity when centralized systems face disruptions, emphasizing that decentralization can offer continuity in the face of cyberattacks, infrastructure outages, or regulatory constraints.
Amid the debate, Srinivasan acknowledges that progress already exists in the form of stablecoins expanding their global reach as borderless digital money. While the industry has not yet delivered a full suite of refugee-centric products, the potential is clear: non-custodial wallets, transparent governance, and cross-border settlement rails could empower displaced individuals to store value, send remittances, and access identity-linked financial services with fewer intermediaries. The discussion also touches on the human dimension—products that work for refugees must be usable, accessible, and trusted by communities that have often been underserved by traditional financial infrastructure. The evolving narrative urges builders to test and scale with a humanitarian lens, ensuring security, privacy, and user-centric design are not sacrificed for speed or novelty.
On this topic, Srinivasan points to the broader stability narrative around stablecoins, noting that a leading USD-pegged token is already achieving widespread circulation. The growth in circulating supply and market depth has implications for liquidity and cross-border transactions, potentially enabling refugees and stateless individuals to participate in the digital economy more reliably. Reports referencing the price index and market-cap trends illustrate how capital flows are shifting, sometimes in response to geopolitical developments such as regional tensions in the Gulf and the real estate market’s response to conflict. While the numbers provide a snapshot of the moment, the underlying takeaway is a call for intentional product development that centers humanitarian needs as a core use case for crypto.
In this context, the conversation intersects with regulatory and policy considerations. Acknowledging the tension between innovation and oversight, the discourse invites ongoing dialogue about how to design crypto tools that are compliant, secure, and accessible to those who stand to gain the most from resilient financial rails. The critique from Andi Duro—that refugee-focused crypto products have been historically underdeveloped due to consumer misalignment with gambling-centric segments—serves as a reminder that the market must reorient incentives to serve vulnerable populations. If the community can translate this critique into concrete product and governance innovations, the humanitarian potential of crypto could become a meaningful, verifiable outcome rather than a theoretical ideal.
Tech investor and former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan has called on the crypto industry to develop more financial tools for refugees and stateless people.
In a Saturday post on X, Srinivasan said the number of displaced individuals could grow as global conflicts intensify and economic migration increases. He pointed to examples ranging from Ukrainians fleeing war to workers leaving the Gulf countries amid regional tensions.
“We should build more crypto tools for refugees and stateless people,” Srinivasan wrote, suggesting that blockchain-based systems can provide financial infrastructure when traditional institutions fail or become inaccessible.
Srinivasan described crypto as “wartime mode for the internet,” arguing that decentralized networks were designed to operate even under hostile conditions such as cyberattacks, infrastructure failures or financial restrictions. He said that public blockchains can continue processing transactions even if centralized systems face disruptions.
Related: Bitcoin ‘passing geopolitical stress test’ as BTC price spikes above $72K
Crypto rarely builds for refugees despite clear need
His comments came in response to a separate post from Andi Duro, founder of research site TwoCents, who argued that while crypto could serve refugees effectively, the industry rarely builds products specifically for them.
“It’s very unfortunate that crypto is a great solution for refugees who are stateless and forced to interact with crumbling institutions and payment rails,” Andi wrote. “But nobody in crypto builds for refugees because they’re not useful consumers for gambling.”
However, Srinivasan noted that crypto has had some success in building such tools. He pointed out the growing role of stablecoins, which he said are already gaining global reach as a borderless form of digital money. “But we can do more,” he added.
Related: US Senate bill targets prediction markets on war and assassinations
UAE capital flight boosts USDC
As Cointelegraph reported, the market capitalization of the USDC (USDC) stablecoin is nearing a record $80 billion as supply surges in recent weeks. USDC’s circulating supply reaching roughly $79.2 billion, surpassing its previous high set in December after rising from about $70 billion in early February.
One Dubai-based analyst attributed the spike to capital flight from the United Arab Emirates amid turbulence in the real estate market. The DFM Real Estate Index has dropped sharply since the start of the war.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
Meanwhile, the other community member believes the patience of XRP investors is “genuinely a psychological phenomenon.”
Ripple and its native non-stablecoin have a substantial community, but also a fair share of critics due to some of the core implementations. Its growth in popularity over the past several years has been quite astonishing, which sometimes even surpasses its market rise.
As such, whenever someone, especially a high-profile figure within the crypto industry, speaks against XRP in some form, there’s usually backlash.
A Bank Wearing a Hoodie?
Davinci Jeremie is among the OG crypto influencers and analysts, famously advising people to buy BTC when it was worth $1. In a recent post on X, he criticized XRP for several of its key features that could actually be making it a “bank wearing a hoodie.”
He outlined that these factors could be hidden leverage, fake decentralization, pausable exits, insider advantages, and users locked in wrapped IOUs. Instead, he commented that bitcoin does not have any of these.
Your favorite crypto project is just a bank wearing a hoodie.
*cough* $XRP
Hidden leverage ✓
Fake decentralization ✓
Pausable exits ✓
Insider advantages ✓
Users locked in wrapped IOUs ✓#Bitcoin has none of these.Name one other project that doesn’t. I’ll wait. 👇
— Davinci Jeremie (@Davincij15) March 11, 2026
Somewhat expectedly, most comments below the posts lashed out at Jeremie, with one saying, “That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever read from you. XRP is everything that they wanted Bitcoin to be. That’s a fact.” Naturally, Jeremie disagreed. Others, though, agreed with his initial comments, saying that “XRP is a s**t and not a match” to bitcoin.
Finally, XRP’s Moment?
In contrast to the aforementioned statement, XRP Bags, among the vocal members of the XRP community on X, outlined what it feels like to be a holder of the cross-border token. They believe every year so far has begun with big promises but seemingly have failed to deliver, or at least until 2023, when it was the first big break in the lawsuit against the SEC.
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More promisingly, though, the user noted that 2025 was an “I told you so” year for XRP, while 2026 shows that they are “just getting started.”
the XRP holder experience:
2017 — “this is going to change banking forever”
2018 — “just wait”
2019 — “keep stacking”
2020 — “SEC who?”
2021 — “SEC lawsuit, this is actually bullish”
2022 — “just wait”
2023 — “WE WON (partially)”
2024 — “Keep accumulating”
2025 — “told you”
2026…— XRP Bags💰👨🏽🚀 BagMan (@XRPBags) March 13, 2026
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Opinion by: Ana Carolina Oliveira, chief compliance officer at Venga
Crypto doesn’t have a money laundering problem on its own. At least, not when compared to traditional finance, where the practice is at least twice as prevalent and over 90% of which is believed to go undetected. Money laundering is a general problem wherever we see the transfer of funds. That’s the good news.
Blockchain records everything for posterity. When money laundering does occur, an indelible record is created that allows the illicit financial flows to be traced from end to end.
Just because crypto doesn’t have a particular money laundering problem doesn’t mean that money laundering has been eradicated. The anti-money laundering system needs to evolve as a whole to strengthen preventive and investigative measures across traditional finance as well as centralized and decentralized finance (CeFi and DeFi) environments.
This evolution requires greater communication within the sector, improved feedback mechanisms, a deeper understanding of emerging typologies and more effective dissemination of new trends.
The recently published European Union AML Regulation (Regulation EU 2024/1624) sets some rules on this matter, but more needs to be done in practice. Achieving this calls for regulators and industry leaders to create the kind of guardrails that go beyond “box-checking” compliance.
Crypto must do better
It’s not enough to have AML procedures in place. These need to be constantly enhanced to ensure that crypto overcomes its misunderstood reputation as a high-risk money-laundering environment and strengthens its barriers to keep aggressively combating this practice.
This demands a cultural change in how we approach money laundering, with an emphasis on greater information sharing. Otherwise, criminals will simply shift operations from high AML venues to softer crypto targets where they can continue to ply their trade.
Crypto “enables” money laundering in exactly the same manner as fiat. The architecture may be different, but the outcome is the same: bad actors doing bad things with funds that facilitate everything from ransomware to, in the most egregious cases, terrorism.
Blockchain’s pseudonymity may be a feature, not a bug, but it makes it hard to know who you’re dealing with when it comes to self-hosted wallets, exacerbated when mixers are used to obfuscate the source of funds.
When you can’t easily identify the origin or owner of the funds, you will struggle to prevent money laundering.
Related: Universal blockchains buckle under real-world demands
That is the reality for fiat and crypto alike. A single exchange, no matter how robust its AML and Know Your Transaction tooling, lacks the visibility into everything that’s taking place onchain. Collectively, however, all crypto platforms possess vast knowledge of who’s doing what onchain, and when that “what” strays into the realm of suspected criminality, that information must be shared.
At present, initiatives like the Travel Rule, wallet screening and onchain analytics form a powerful AML barrier, but responsibility and the costs associated with creating the pathways to combat illicit activity, are delegated to individual entities. To give just one example, the Travel Rule mandates a SWIFT/IBAN-style identification system, but the industry has been left alone to create the technology and integration to facilitate this exchange of information.
In other words, regulators have delegated the implementation of a “crypto SWIFT system” to the industry. In a sector characterized by multi-jurisdictional companies that are subject to different geo-specific regulations, this compliance burden is colossal and labyrinthine. The ideal solution is for a global compliance standard to be implemented industry-wide.
Given the difficulties of getting different regulators and regions to agree to such a framework, the onus falls to the crypto industry, once more, to self-regulate. States and other national competent authorities must do better in regulating and setting the path for the industry to comply.
Fewer loopholes, more freedom
The biggest crypto money-laundering challenge at present is the difficulty of identifying who owns the wallets, and not the technology itself. Because the United States, EU and Asia have different thresholds and rules when it comes to sharing information, performing due diligence and enforcing the Travel Rule, there are loopholes that bad actors exploit.
Closing off these loopholes won’t just curtail money laundering; it will also empower legitimate users to enjoy the financial freedom that crypto provides. The freedom to transact, to trade and to tokenize without running into brick walls every time they change exchanges or switch regions. Because crypto is borderless, compliance needs to follow suit. Compliance needs to work everywhere, every time.
That’s why the industry needs to collaborate to share information, adopt best practices and signal to the world that blockchain is open for business but closed to criminals who have nowhere to hide their ill-gotten gains.
We’ve mastered the AML tools. Now we need to master the art of talking. Exchange to exchange. Platform to platform. Region to region. FIU to obliged entities. TradFi with CeFi. That’s how crypto’s stance on money laundering goes from low-tolerance to no-tolerance.
If we can achieve that, the industry will flourish.
Opinion by: Ana Carolina Oliveira, chief compliance officer at Venga.
This opinion article presents the author’s expert view, and it may not reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. This content has undergone editorial review to ensure clarity and relevance. Cointelegraph remains committed to transparent reporting and upholding the highest standards of journalism. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before taking any actions related to the company.
XRP transactions jump 3x year-over-year, but price stays muted as daily network activity surges from approximately 1 million to nearly 3 million transactions.
Summary
- XRP Ledger activity surged to nearly 3M daily transactions.
- Growth is driven by RWAs, stablecoins, and institutional flows.
- XRP price remains muted, down 39% year-over-year.
The ledger data from XRPScan shows February 2026 posting 1.3 million average daily transactions, up from roughly 800,000 in May 2025.
XRP traded at $1.39 with a 24-hour range of $1.39 to $1.45, posting losses of 2.4% over 24 hours and 39.3% over one year.
The disconnect between surging network usage and stagnant price action has drawn attention from analysts who note the growth comes from real-world asset settlement, stablecoins, and institutional payment flows.
XRP transactions jump 3x year-over-year
XRP Brasil posted on X that the ledger jumped from 1 million to almost 3 million daily transactions in less than a year, calling the data “surgical” and stating “this isn’t noise, it’s real adoption.”
The account noted that while markets focus on price, the network processes real-world assets, stablecoins, and institutional flows behind the scenes.
Analyst PassingAnt identified three major drivers for the transaction growth: real-world assets, tokenized assets, and institutional payment rails.
The shift from 1 million to nearly 3 million daily transactions is the kind of growth that usually comes from on-chain financial activity rather than retail speculation.
September 2025 posted the lowest activity at approximately 700,000 daily transactions before the surge began.
January 2026 reached 1.05 million daily transactions, with February 2026 climbing to 1.3 million. The acceleration occurred while XRP price remained range-bound between $1.30 and $1.50 for most of the period.
Price remains muted with 39.3% yearly drop
XRP posted gains of 2.0% over seven days, 8.5% over 14 days, and 1.1% over 30 days, showing short-term recovery from recent lows.
The one-year performance of -39.3% shows the overall crypto market drawdown following Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high and subsequent drop.
Analyst Maxi noted XRP broke resistance levels but has yet to confirm with a daily candle close, calling Friday price moves “fake out Fridays.” The first short-term checkpoint sits at $2.36 and is a 70% gain from current levels.
The market value of USDC, the Circle-issued dollar-pegged stablecoin, is edging toward a new peak of roughly $80 billion as demand intensifies in the Middle East. Data from CoinMarketCap show USDC circulating supply at about $79.2 billion, a fresh all-time high that eclipses the previous peak just shy of $79 billion logged last December. The climb follows weeks of sustained supply growth, with the metric standing above $70 billion in early February and around $75 billion earlier this month. The widening footprint underscores how liquidity needs are shifting in a landscape where investors seek stable on-ramps and off-ramps amid global macro uncertainty.
In a post on X, Dubai-based analyst Rami Al-Hashimi attributed the surge to a broad appetite for moving funds out of conventional markets, saying over-the-counter desks in Dubai have struggled to keep pace with demand for USDC. The assertion dovetails with a broader narrative about stablecoins increasingly serving as a bridge for cross-border flows in regions facing FX volatility or capital controls. While the UAE’s property markets have drawn headlines for softness, the liquidity angle emphasizes a different use case for stablecoins: a readily accessible, dollar-linked liquidity layer that can be deployed with relatively low friction compared with traditional banking rails.
Dubai property slump may be driving USDC surge
Al-Hashimi connected the surge in stablecoin activity to turmoil in the United Arab Emirates’ real estate market. He argued that Dubai property prices have fallen by roughly 27% this month, fueling a rush among investors to reposition capital into digital assets. He framed the shift as a form of “war panic” and capital flight, suggesting a growing pattern of investors seeking liquidity and exit routes amid local real estate distress. The broader market backdrop is echoed by TradingView data, which show the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) Real Estate Index declining sharply from a peak around 16,800 to roughly 11,516, a slide near 31% in a compressed period. The correlation between real assets and a pivot to on-chain assets reflects a broader risk-off dynamic in which digital currencies are positioned as an escape hatch or hedge in uncertain times.
There are signs that the real estate slowdown is influencing pricing dynamics in the on-chain space as well. Some property listings have begun advertising discounts for buyers who pay with cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cited as a preferred settlement option in certain corners of the market. The trend, while not universal, illustrates how digital assets are increasingly being used as a shopping tool for large-ticket purchases, even as the broader macro environment remains unsettled. The co-movement of real estate activity and crypto liquidity highlights how capital floods can reallocate quickly across asset classes when traditional channels tighten or become expensive to access.
Beyond the Dubai-specific story, market observers noted a notable shift in stablecoin usage on a global basis. In a development that has captured attention from traders and analysts, USDC is reported to have overtaken USDt (CRYPTO: USDT) in adjusted transaction volume for the year to date, according to Mizuho. The bank’s note indicates USDC handling roughly $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume versus about $1.3 trillion for USDt, equating to roughly 64% of the combined volume. While USDt remains the dominant stablecoin by market capitalization—about $184 billion—the leap in on-chain throughput for USDC points to evolving user preferences and liquidity patterns within the stablecoin sector. The dynamic underscore is that liquidity is not static; it migrates as market participants seek efficiency, settlement speed, and regulatory clarity in different venues.
Taken together, the numbers paint a complex portrait of a market that is increasingly dependent on stable liquidity but is also becoming more sensitive to regional macro events. The growth in USDC supply and the related uptick in on-chain activity suggest that investors are prioritizing predictable settlement and cross-border transfer capabilities. At the same time, the continued magnitude of USDt’s market cap serves as a reminder that the stablecoin landscape remains fragmented, with different assets occupying distinct roles within portfolios and trading desks. While some observers point to a reshuffling of flows toward newer stablecoins, others caution that the sector’s regulatory and counterparty risk remains a central concern for market participants who rely on these digital currencies for everyday payments and liquidity provisioning.
Why it matters
For users and builders, the sustained expansion of USDC’s market footprint reinforces the role of stablecoins as a core liquidity layer in crypto markets. As demand for efficient settlement and cross-border transfers grows, stablecoins offer a familiar, dollar-linked settlement mechanism that can operate 24/7, reducing reliance on traditional financial rails. This can lower friction for institutions and retail traders alike, particularly in regions where FX controls or capital flight concerns drive preference for digital assets.
From a market structure perspective, the shift in transaction volumes toward USDC relative to USDt signals a potential recalibration of liquidity provision and exchange dynamics. If the trend persists, it could influence liquidity strategies on centralized and decentralized venues, affect funding rates, and alter risk premia across stablecoin-enabled pairs. Regulators are closely watching such developments, given ongoing scrutiny around stablecoin reserves, disclosures, and settlement practices. The evolving balance between stability, transparency, and efficiency will shape how market participants price and manage risk in the coming quarters.
For investors and traders, the Dubai-linked narrative adds a tangible example of how macro shocks in one region can ripple through crypto markets elsewhere. It reinforces the view that stablecoins remain a barometer of risk sentiment and capital mobility. As the ecosystem debates the merits of different stablecoins, users will increasingly evaluate not only collateral reserves and mint-and-burn mechanics but also the practical realities of liquidity access, regulatory alignment, and the speed of settlement across borders.
What to watch next
- Monitor USDC supply and market cap updates on CoinMarketCap to gauge whether the $79–$80 billion threshold remains a ceiling or becomes a new floor.
- Track Dubai real estate data and related price movements to see if the recent downturn persists or stabilizes, potentially affecting capital allocation choices.
- Observe any shifts in real-world asset adoption for crypto payments, particularly for large-ticket purchases where discounts could incentivize crypto settlement.
- Follow regulatory developments around stablecoins in major jurisdictions, including disclosures, reserve requirements, and cross-border settlement standards.
- Watch on-chain volume trends for USDC versus USDt to confirm whether the broader volume leadership persists and how that translates to liquidity depth across venues.
Sources & verification
- CoinMarketCap — USDC circulating supply and market cap data: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/
- Rami Al-Hashimi, X post discussing Dubai OTC demand for stablecoins: https://x.com/rami_hashimi/status/2032440070976819590
- DFM Real Estate Index performance data via TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=DFM%3ADFMREI
- Mizuho analysis on USDC vs USDt adjusted transaction volumes: https://cointelegraph.com/news/circle-usdc-tether-usdt-adjusted-ytd-volume-mizuho
TLDR:
- NEAR approaches a major resistance zone after forming higher lows, suggesting momentum may be shifting toward a potential breakout scenario.
- Market analysts indicate that reclaiming resistance could accelerate price movement toward the $2 region if buying pressure continues building.
- Research projections place long-term NEAR targets between $6 and $18, depending on adoption, tokenomics shifts, and ecosystem growth.
- NEAR breakout momentum is gaining attention as the asset approaches a crucial resistance area following months of downward pressure.
NEAR breakout momentum is gaining attention as the asset approaches a crucial resistance area following months of downward pressure. Market participants are monitoring whether improving structure could trigger the next expansion phase.
NEAR Tests Key Technical Resistance
Recent market activity shows a strengthening price structure for NEAR Protocol after an extended decline. Price movement has gradually shifted toward higher lows. That pattern often appears when selling pressure weakens.
Market data indicates NEAR as of writing trades around $1.34. The asset recorded roughly 3.93% growth in 24 hours. Weekly performance shows a smaller 1.58% increase.
Technical observers note that the price is approaching an important horizontal resistance band. This level previously acted as support before the broader market breakdown. Recovering that area could reshape the current trend.
According to commentary shared by Michaël van de Poppe on X, momentum continues strengthening. The analyst stated that NEAR is attacking a crucial resistance region. He added that a breakout could open the path toward the $2 level.
Market Structure Shows Signs of Reversal
The earlier market structure displayed a prolonged series of lower highs and lower lows. That pattern defined a persistent downtrend during previous months. Several recovery attempts failed to reclaim lost support levels.
More recent trading behavior suggests a different pattern is emerging. The price stabilized after forming a clear base near recent lows. From that point, buyers began producing consistent upward moves.
Short-term moving averages also shifted direction during the recovery phase. The price moved above the indicator after several months of rejection. That development can indicate a transition in market momentum.
Chart annotations further suggest that reclaiming resistance could accelerate price expansion. Traders often interpret such moves as confirmation of a trend shift. Increased participation can follow when those levels break.
Long-Term Projections Draw Attention
Beyond short-term trading signals, broader research reports also discuss future growth scenarios. Commentary referencing analysis from Vini Barbosa discussed projections from SVRN. The report outlines possible valuation ranges through 2026.
The research suggests a base case price between $6 and $10. A more optimistic projection places the token between $12 and $18. Those targets dep`end on adoption and ecosystem expansion.
SVRN’s thesis focuses partly on infrastructure capabilities within the NEAR network. The platform competes among Layer-1 blockchain systems supporting decentralized applications. Developer tools and scalability remain key areas of focus.
The report also references network tokenomics and an inflation reduction decision approved previously. Lower token issuance could gradually tighten the circulating supply. Analysts suggest that reduced inflation may influence long-term valuation trends.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows on March 13, adding fresh momentum to institutional demand as market analysts pointed to key resistance and support levels for BTC price. Data shared by Farside Investors shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $180.4 million in net inflows on March 13, 2026.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue inflow streak
The funds extended a streak of positive flows after several volatile sessions earlier in the month.The largest share of inflows came from BlackRock’s IBIT, which added $143.6 million. Fidelity’s FBTC followed with $23.2 million, while Bitwise’s BITB recorded $3.1 million. ARK Invest’s ARKB posted $2.4 million, and VanEck’s HODL brought in $8.1 million.
Other Bitcoin ETFs reported no daily inflows, including Grayscale’s GBTC, Invesco’s BTCO, and Franklin Templeton’s EZBC. The latest figures from Farside UK reflect a rebound in ETF demand after significant outflows earlier in March. On March 6, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded $348.9 million in outflows.
The flows later turned positive, with $167.1 million in inflows on March 9 and $246.9 million on March 10, before moderating to $53.8 million on March 12. Since launch, cumulative inflows remain heavily concentrated in a few products. BlackRock’s IBIT has attracted more than $63 billion, while Fidelity’s FBTC has gathered nearly $11 billion, according to the totals displayed in the dataset.
Analysts remain optimistic on BTC price
At the same time, analysts are closely watching Bitcoin’s technical structure. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin has entered a “low-resistance zone,” suggesting the asset could move higher with relatively limited selling pressure.
“Bitcoin $BTC has entered a low-resistance zone, with little standing in the way until $82,045,” Martinez wrote. He added, “Meanwhile, the key support floor sits at $66,898.”
A chart shared by crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe shows Bitcoin trading around $71,720 on the 4-hour timeframe after rebounding from earlier March lows. The chart highlights a higher-low structure forming near $65,117, which Poppe described as a support level the market continues to hold.
Above the current price range, the chart marks a potential resistance band between $76,604 and $79,127, while a broader upside target zone sits near $80,646. The technical setup also shows Bitcoin reclaiming a short-term moving average after a series of consolidations.
Poppe described the recent price move as typical end-of-week volatility.“Classic price action on a Friday afternoon on #Bitcoin,” Poppe wrote on X. He noted, “Runs all the way towards the recent high, takes liquidity and inverses.”
Poppe added that he would be watching the next few sessions closely as he expects fresh highs soon. “Would be interested to see how this develops coming days, but would suggest that we’re going to attack the highs again in next two weeks.”
BlackRock digital assets head Robert Mitchnick said Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the only two cryptocurrencies attracting meaningful investor demand.
Summary
- BlackRock says Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate investor demand.
- IBIT saw $26B inflows in 2025 despite Bitcoin’s price decline.
- ETH staking ETF aims to add yield to ether exposure.
This comes as the asset manager evaluates future ETF products. Speaking on CNBC following the launch of BlackRock’s ETHB staked ether ETF, Mitchnick stated Bitcoin commands approximately 60% of crypto market share while Ethereum holds the low teens.
The comments come as BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF recorded $26 billion in inflows during 2025 despite Bitcoin falling nearly 50% from its October all-time high.
IBIT ranked fourth globally for ETF inflows last year, becoming the only product in the top 20 to post positive flows while delivering negative price returns.
Year-to-date flows for IBIT remain slightly positive, with approximately 90% of the investor base maintaining steady accumulation patterns through the drawdown.
Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate investor allocation decisions
Mitchnick described Bitcoin as a “digital gold emerging monetary alternative” while calling Ethereum as “a technology centric bet around blockchain innovation and the various use cases of ether and digital assets.”
The distinction decides how investors approach portfolio allocations, with Ethereum exposure aligning more closely with technology and venture equity allocations.
BlackRock’s ETHA became the third-fastest ETF in history to reach $10 billion in assets under management, trailing only IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC.
The newly launched ETHB adds staking yield to spot ether exposure, addressing what Mitchnick called a “limitation” in original ether ETF products that lacked yield capture mechanisms.
The staking feature makes ETHB “much closer, like the Bitcoin ETPs were, to a silver bullet for a lot of investors in terms of a super convenient exposure vehicle,” Mitchnick said.
Long-term investors drive Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows
Retail investors and financial advisors comprise the majority of ETF demand, with both segments showing opportunistic buying during price declines.
Hedge funds account for roughly 10% of flows, primarily running basis trades that go long ETFs while shorting futures contracts. These trades remain neutral for Bitcoin’s price but create flow volatility when basis spreads compress.
Mitchnick noted BlackRock sees “pockets of interest” in other crypto assets but maintains a “discerning approach” to product expansion.
The firm continues evaluating assets as liquidity, scale, and use cases develop, but Bitcoin and Ethereum remain where investor interest concentrates overwhelmingly.
The market capitalization of the USDC stablecoin is approaching a record high near $80 billion as demand surges in the Middle East, with one analyst linking the spike to capital flight from the United Arab Emirates.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, USDC (USDC)’s circulating supply has risen to roughly $79.2 billion, marking a new all-time high for the dollar-pegged stablecoin. The stablecoin’s market cap previously hit a high of below $79 billion in December last year.
The increase comes after supply expanded by billions of dollars in recent weeks. The stablecoin’s market cap stood at just over $70 billion in early February and at $75 billion earlier this month.
Self-proclaimed Dubai-based analyst Rami Al-Hashimi claimed the surge reflects growing demand from investors seeking to move funds out of traditional markets. In a Friday post on X, Al-Hashimi said over-the-counter (OTC) desks in Dubai have struggled to meet demand for the stablecoin.
Related: Stablecoins could form backbone of global payments in 10 years: Billionaire
Dubai property slump may be driving USDC surge
Al-Hashimi tied the surge in stablecoin demand to turmoil in the UAE’s real estate market. The analyst claimed property prices in Dubai have fallen roughly 27% this month, sparking a rush among investors to move capital into digital assets.
“War panic. Capital flight. Sellers are bleeding,” he wrote, describing what he said was a rapid shift in investor behavior.
Data from TradingView also shows that the DFM Real Estate Index, which tracks the performance of listed real estate and construction companies in Dubai, has suffered a sharp sell-off, with the index falling from around 16,800 at its recent peak to about 11,516, a decline of roughly 31%.
Al-Hashimi claimed the situation has also led some property sellers to accept cryptocurrency payments directly. He said certain real estate listings now advertise discounts for buyers who pay using Bitcoin (BTC).
“Pay in BTC, get 5–10% off,” he wrote, adding that the trend reflects growing demand for digital assets during periods of financial uncertainty.
Related: Crypto Biz: Circle stock defies Wall Street and digital asset selloff
USDC overtakes USDt in adjusted transaction volume
Japanese investment bank Mizuho says USDC has surpassed Tether’s USDt (USDT) in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019. According to the bank’s research note, USDC recorded about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDt, giving USDC roughly 64% of combined transaction share.
Despite the shift in activity, USDt remains the largest stablecoin by market capitalization at about $184 billion, far ahead of USDC’s $79 billion.
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