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Bitcoin Price and Stocks Stabilize as Bond Market Signals Ongoing Macro Risk

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Bitcoin Price and Stocks Stabilize as Bond Market Signals Ongoing Macro Risk

Bitcoin (BTC) and global equity markets have stabilized above key psychological price levels, shaking off an early-week sell-off triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

While Bitcoin is trading firmly above $70,000 and the S&P 500 has recovered lost ground, the bond market is signaling that the coast is far from clear.

Yields on U.S. Treasuries have surged for four consecutive days, warning traders that the combination of energy shocks and sticky inflation could keep the Federal Reserve hawkish for longer.

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Bitcoin and Stocks: Reading the Risk-On Signal in the Price Charts

The price of Bitcoin is around $70,500 as of Friday, marking a resilient 6% rebound for the week. The leading cryptocurrency briefly touched $73,470 on Wednesday, recovering sharply from a slide to near $63,000 over the weekend. That initial drop was driven by a spike in oil prices following reports of blocked transit in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that rattled risk assets globally.

The recovery has been mirrored in the equity markets. S&P 500 futures bounced from a multi-week low of 6,718 to reclaim the 6,840 level, stabilizing after the U.S. pledged naval escorts to secure energy transport routes.

This synchronized price action highlights a rising correlation between crypto and traditional equities. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $73k despite war chaos, yet its tight coupling with the S&P 500 suggests it remains vulnerable to broad macro sentiment rather than acting as a detached safe haven.

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Bitcoin Price and Stocks Stabilize as Bond Market Signals Ongoing Macro Risk

If Bitcoin can maintain support above $72,000, it builds a base to challenge the $74,000 local high. However, if the correlation with equities holds and stocks roll over, the $65,000 level becomes the critical invalidation point for this relief rally.

Bond Yields Flash Warning: Why Traders Can’t Ignore the Macro Noise

While equity traders are buying the dip, bond traders are pricing in risk. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has climbed from 3.93% to 4.15% in just four days. Bond prices move inversely to yields, and this sharp move suggests capital is demanding a higher premium for inflation risk.

The two-year yield, which is highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations, has jumped to nearly 3.60%. This repricing directly impacts risk appetite; higher yields typically drain liquidity from speculative assets like crypto by offering a more attractive risk-free return.

Fed rate cut hints had previously sent BTC flying past $72k, but the bond market is now effectively taking those chips off the table.

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Data from CME Fed funds futures confirms the shift in sentiment. Investors now see less than a 50% chance of two rate cuts this year, a steep drop from the nearly 80% probability priced in before the conflict began.

If the 10-year yield breaks above 4.20%, it could exert heavy downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. If yields stabilize or retreat below 4.00%, it would likely greenlight the next leg up for risk assets.

While some point to recent surges in altcoin ETFs as evidence of persistent institutional appetite, cautious analysts note that oil shock impacts are often delayed. If energy prices bleed into broader inflation data, the Federal Reserve may have to hold rates high, capping the upside for Bitcoin and stocks alike.

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The Levels That Change Everything: What Traders Are Watching

Traders are focusing on three critical levels to determine the market’s next direction:

First, watch Bitcoin at $74,000. This is the immediate resistance cap; a daily close above this level would signal that the market has fully absorbed the geopolitical shock.

Second, monitor the 10-Year Treasury Yield at 4.2%. This is the danger zone for risk assets. If yields push through this level, expect algorithmic selling to hit both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

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Finally, the invalidation level sits around $63,000. If the current stabilization fails, a break below this support would suggest the downtrend is resuming.

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The post Bitcoin Price and Stocks Stabilize as Bond Market Signals Ongoing Macro Risk appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

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Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

Key takeaways:

  • Bearish sentiment is rising as Bitcoin options professional traders lose confidence that the $66,000 level will hold for long.

  • The exit of David Sacks as the Crypto and AI czar and a lack of a clear US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan added to investors’ doubts.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% decline from the $71,300 level seen on Thursday. This move wiped out over $210 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures and left most call (buy) options worthless during the $18.6 billion monthly expiry. Traders now anticipate a 53% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $66,000 by April 24.

April 24 Bitcoin option prices at Deribit. Source: Deribit

On Friday, the April 24 Bitcoin $66,000 put (sell) options traded at 0.0566 BTC or roughly $3,730. With a 53% implied probability of Bitcoin trading below $66,000 by late April, the mood remains decidedly bearish following the increased uncertainty in the US and Israel-Iran war, pushing traders into a risk-averse mode.

US inflation threats and stalling crypto, Bitcoin legislation

Rising oil prices and a potential $200 billion in extra US military spending led investors to demand higher returns on government bonds and dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest levels since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged to $100 on Friday, while 5-year Treasury yields reached 4.07%, up from 3.72% three weeks prior.

US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. S&P 500 (right). Source: TradingView

Inflationary fear and weaker corporate earnings perspectives alone cannot explain Bitcoin’s 20% underperformance against the S&P 500 in 2026. Other factors are likely at play, including investors’ discomfort over the lack of progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

David Sacks has stepped down from his role as the Trump administration’s crypto and AI czar. While Sacks remains an advisor on the President’s Council on Science & Technology, his departure follows earlier comments that inflated Bitcoin investors’ expectations. Sacks had previously hinted that the US could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without raising taxes.

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Related: US lawmakers publish crypto tax proposal without Bitcoin tax exemption

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% on Friday, showing that put options are trading at a significant premium relative to call instruments. In balanced market conditions, this metric usually ranges between -6% and +6%. The current level indicates a lack of conviction among whales that the $66,000 level will hold. Fear has largely dominated the Bitcoin options market since mid-January.

Bitcoin options expiry favored neutral-to-bearish strategies

Friday’s monthly options expiry at $68,610 proved unfavorable for neutral-to-bullish strategies, as 97% of call options became void. Bears gained the upper hand as put options at $69,000 or higher surpassed $2 billion in open interest. Critically, part of Friday’s downward move reflects a growing unwillingness among traders to maintain Bitcoin exposure over the weekend.

Crypto markets cut risk on Friday due to uncertainty. Source: X/WhalePanda

X social platform user WhalePanda, suggested that the crash in risk markets anticipates President Trump making “another dumb escalating move” after US markets close. Consequently, the current fear seen in the options market could reverse if no major geopolitical events occur before Monday.

During bearish cycles, traders often rush for the exits at the mere sight of any event that could be deemed negative. Investors should not take Bitcoin’s implied odds at face value, as these metrics are heavily impacted by recent news and headlines. However, expectations could shift more favorably if Iran effectively releases a counter-offer to the US peace proposal.