Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on Thursday as the price retraced from an intraday high near 68,300 dollars. On-chain observations point to ongoing capitulation, with long‑term holders trimming exposure and a broad mix of leverage liquidations fueling the weakness. Several analysts argue that the current cycle could see BTC bottoming in late 2026, after a protracted downward phase that has pulled the asset from its 2025 peak in a manner not seen since prior bear markets.

Key takeaways

• On-chain indicators point to deep capitulation, with downside risks persisting as long-term holders adjust positions.
• Long-term holder net-position change shows extreme distribution, echoing patterns seen before previous bottoms in the cycle.
• Multiple analyses point toward a potential BTC bottom in Q4 2026, aligning with a history of multi-quarter bear cycles.
• Mass liquidations and shifting open interest underscore caution amid persistent stress in the derivatives market.
• Developments in on-chain metrics continue to diverge from recent price rallies, implying limited near-term upside without renewed buying interest.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. The ongoing capitulation signals and persistent selling pressure raise the odds of BTC trading lower in the near term.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. While downside risk remains, indicators suggest the market could form a bottom later in 2026, warranting cautious positioning and risk management.

Market context: The current phase sits within a broader risk-off backdrop for crypto markets, where on-chain signals and leveraged liquidations have amplified volatility while traders await clearer macro and regulatory cues.

Why it matters

The tenor of on-chain data underscores a fundamental shift in investor behavior. Long-term holders have historically acted as a counterweight to price declines, yet in this cycle their net exposure has declined sharply, suggesting widespread capitulation among a cohort that typically anchors market recoveries. The observed distribution patterns bear similarities to prior corrections that preceded further downside before a subsequent bottom, pointing to a potential multi-month horizon before a durable floor emerges.

Analysts emphasize that such capitulation does not guarantee a bottom right away; instead, it denotes a phase where weak hands have exited and confidence remains fragile. Fundamental demand appears tempered by macro uncertainty, while BTC faces the dual test of reclaiming critical price levels and reframing risk appetite among specialized participants who dominate futures and options markets. In other words, the path to a meaningful reversal is likely to hinge on whether buying interest can reassert itself after the current wave of liquidations peters out.

The data also highlight a tension between price action and longer-term metrics. While the price has flirted with notable support levels, corresponding on-chain signals have not yet shown a decisive pivot toward sustainable accumulation. Some observers argue that the most consequential developments—such as a sustained improvement in realized losses versus profits or an uptick in long-position liquidations—could precede a bottom, as past cycles have often featured distinctive phases where capitulation preceded a period of consolidation.

From a broader market perspective, the cycle’s depth has tested risk controls and liquidity across exchanges. The magnitude of long liquidations, particularly in the BTC‑USD pair, has drawn attention to the fragility of highly leveraged positions. In tandem, OI (open interest) has remained elevated relative to short-term price moves, signaling caution among participants who depend on leverage to express directional bets. These dynamics feed a narrative in which a bottom, if it materializes, may occur only after a protracted period of price discovery and tighter funding conditions rather than a quick rebound.

What to watch next

• Bitcoin price reclaim of key zones around 105,000–107,000 dollars could signal a shift in momentum and align with some bear-case bottoms.
• Continued analysis of long-term holder net-position changes to assess whether distribution slows or accelerates as markets approach mid‑2026.
• Monitoring MVRV Adaptive Z‑Score trends and other momentum indicators for signs of accumulation or renewed capitulation.
• Open interest and funding-rate dynamics on major futures platforms to gauge whether downside pressure is fading or intensifying.
• Macro and regulatory developments that could influence liquidity and risk appetite in crypto markets, potentially shaping the timing of a bottom.

Sources & verification

• Glassnode analyses on long-term holder net-position change and its relationship to bear-market bottoms.
• CryptoQuant Quicktake data showing Bitcoin’s MVRV Adaptive Z-Score at deeply negative levels.
• CoinGlass data detailing liquidation clusters and changes in futures open interest across exchanges.
• Public posts from market analysts on X discussing potential timing of a bottom, including references to historical cycles.
• On-Chain College charts illustrating net realized losses and their historical context.

Bitcoin capitulation deepens as on-chain metrics point to possible late-2026 bottom

Bitcoin has moved decisively off its intraday peak, with the price retreating from the near region of 68,300 dollars as sellers reasserted control this Thursday. The retreat comes after a sizable drawdown from the all-time high set in the previous cycle, a drop of roughly 46 percent from a peak above 126,000 dollars in October 2025. The move has intensified a narrative of capitulation that on-chain trackers have been flagging for weeks, as a substantial portion of the market remains underwater and exposure patterns shift among different investor cohorts.

Glassnode’s data on long-term holders reveals a cycle-relative extreme in daily distribution. The net-position change shows that BTC held by long-term investors fell by about 245,000 coins on February 6, and the trend has persisted, with this group trimming exposure by an average of roughly 170,000 BTC per day since then. This behavior mirrors episodes in previous corrections when long-dated holders capitulated before the market carved out a bottom, suggesting that the present phase shares some historical characteristics with past bear cycles. The observation is not a forecast in itself, but it does provide a framework for interpreting a price action that has defied quick reversals despite briefer rallies.

“The current Z-Score reading of -2.66 proves that Bitcoin remains persistently in the capitulation zone,” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain explained, noting that the metric has historically signaled an accumulation phase on the horizon.

Another lens comes from the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which Glassnode notes is nearing a decisive threshold. When realized losses outrun profits, markets have tended to experience broader capitulation rather than immediate recoveries, a pattern investors watch closely as they assess whether the current cycle is entering a new accumulation phase or simply grinding lower before a deeper pullback.

Meanwhile, market observers have cited the most dramatic liquidations in recent sessions, with BTC and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) accounting for outsized losses across liquidators, and a broad 1.33 billion dollars in combined short and long liquidations reported in one window. The juxtaposition of persistent price softness with still-significant open interest highlights the fragility of the current price regime, where leverage remains at risk of triggering renewed bouts of selling if markets retest critical levels. The largest single liquidation reportedly occurred on a major platform, underscoring the scope of risk in a crowded derivatives market.

On the forecasting front, several voices argue that BTC could bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026, albeit with a wide range of potential price bands. One analyst characterized the trajectory as potentially forming a floor in the 40,000 to 50,000 dollar region, while other analysts see a more complex path shaped by liquidity cycles and macro factors. The all-time high printed in October 2025 casts a long shadow, with traders noting that the drive to find a bottom may hinge on a combination of on-chain discipline and renewed buying interest from institutions and retail participants alike.

Data of note from On-Chain College shows a spike in net realized losses up to around 13.6 billion dollars in early February, levels not seen since the 2022 bear market. If history rhymes, this peak could precede a broader bottom as market participants digest losses and reassess risk, potentially leading to a calibration of positions that could stabilize prices later in the year or into 2027. The narrative around a late-2026 bottom is not a guarantee, but a synthesis of historical patterns, current on-chain dynamics, and the persistence of downward price pressure despite intermittent rallies.

Looking ahead, the research community remains divided, with some analysts arguing that the capitulation wave could ease as positions liquidate and fear subsides, allowing a stable base to form. Others caution that until key price levels are reclaimed and investor confidence returns, BTC could stay range-bound or drift to sub-100,000 dollar territory before buyers re-emerge. This uncertainty underscores the importance of monitoring both price action and the evolving on-chain environment as a rough timetable for turning points remains ambiguous.

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The current state of the crypto market is unfolding almost exactly as historical patterns would suggest, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures

That’s why he was skeptical of recent overly optimistic bottom calls. “When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Thursday.

Predictions that bitcoin would bottom at $60,000 and immediately resume its climb struck him as premature. “That also seems a little too soon.”

While he stopped short of forecasting another year-long drawdown, Terpin believes the market likely faces “one more point of pain” in what he describes as a fragile environment. He suggests bitcoin could revisit levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before a durable bottom is formed.

The halving is central to bitcoin’s design because it cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half roughly every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created.

This built-in supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded major bull markets as reduced new supply meets steady or rising demand.

The halving mechanism slows bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately capping total supply at 21 million coins and reinforcing its positioning as digital gold.

“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events.

One of the most reliable elements of prior cycles has been the rough timing of the bubble peak and subsequent unwind, he argued.

“The bull market popped in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, adding that the speculative blow-off phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”

Terpin draws a close parallel to the last cycle. “The highs, the bubble popping, were on Nov. 10, 2021,” he says. “The lows were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022. Exactly a year to the day.”

Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed their activity on Thursday as the Bitcoin price turned away from its intraday high of $68,300. Analysts said that Bitcoin remained in capitulation, which could push the price lower, potentially reaching a bottom during the last quarter of 2026.

Key takeaways:

• Multiple onchain indicators suggest Bitcoin is in deep capitulation as downside risks remain.

• Long-term holder net-position change shows extreme distribution, mirroring past corrections that preceded further downside before bottoms.

• Analysts forecast BTC price to hit a bottom in Q4/2026 based on various technical and onchain metrics.

Bitcoin’s capitulation persists

Bitcoin’s 46% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000 has left a significant portion of holders underwater, and data shows they are now reducing their exposure.

Glassnode’s long-term holder (LTH) net-position change shows that Bitcoin held by these investors over 30 days decreased by 245,000 BTC on Feb. 6, marking a cycle-relative extreme in daily distribution. Since then, this investor cohort has been reducing its exposure by an average of 170,000 BTC, as shown in the chart below.

Related: Binance teases Bitcoin bullish ‘shift’ as crypto sentiment hits record low

Similar spikes in LTH net position change appeared during the corrective phases in 2019 and mid-2021, leading to BTC price consolidating before extended downtrends.

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-Day Window) has fallen to -2.66, reinforcing the intensity of the sell-side pressure.

“The current Z-Score reading of -2.66 proves that Bitcoin remains persistently in the capitulation zone,” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain said in a Thursday Quicktake post, adding:

“The indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase.”

Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is about to break below 1, levels that have historically aligned with “broad-based capitulation, where realized losses outpace profit-taking across the market,” Glassnode said. 

Analysts say Bitcoin will bottom out toward the end of 2026

According to multiple analyses, Bitcoin could extend its downtrend, possibly reaching as low as $40,000 to $50,000 during the last quarter of the year.

The “final capitulation on $BTC is still ahead,” Crypto analyst Tony Research said in a recent post on X, adding:

“My take is, $BTC will bottom at $40K–50K, most likely forming between mid-September and late November 2026.”

Fellow analyst Titan of Crypto said that previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022 printed their lows 12 months after the bull market top. 

Bitcoin’s current all-time high of over $126,000 was reached on Oct. 2, 2025. 

“If this cycle follows the same rhythm, that puts the low around October,” the analyst added.

On-Chain College shared a chart showing that Bitcoin’s Net Realized Loss levels hit extreme levels at $13.6 billion on Feb. 7, levels last seen during the 2022 bear market. 

“The 2022 loss peak occurred 5 months before the actual bear market bottom was printed,” the analyst said, suggesting that BTC could form a bottom in July 2026.

As Cointelegraph reported, many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and various forecasts predict the BTC price dropping to as low as $40,000.