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Bitcoin Price Returns to $70K Despite Growing Tension in the Middle East: Your Weekly Crypto Recap

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Cryptocurrency Market Overview Weekly Mar 6. Source: QuantifyCrypto


This week saw a big investment in OKX, Kraken received a Fed Master Account, while Justin Sun reached a $10 million settlement with the SEC.

This time last Friday, the tension was building in the Middle Eastern region, but only a handful of people could have predicted how the world would change just hours later. On Saturday morning, Israel and the USA joined forces to launch a military operation against Iran, which began with air strikes.

Iran retaliated and continues to do so as the week progressed, even though its Supreme Leader was killed during the first day of the attacks. Since then, the developments on the matter have quickly escalated, with almost a dozen countries already being directly involved, while essentially every nation has felt the consequences in one form or another, especially after the Strait of Hormuz was closed and energy prices skyrocketed.

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Amid all of this massive geopolitical tension, which began on an off-day for every other financial market aside from crypto, bitcoin’s price has remained stable overall. Well, that’s after the initial Saturday shock when it tumbled by $4,000 to $63,000. It quickly rebounded, recovered all losses, and even headed to new local peaks during the business week.

Although there’s no evidence that this war could end soon, BTC surged by $11,000 from its Saturday low to $74,000 on Wednesday. However, it faced an immediate rejection there and now trades around $70,000. This is still roughly 5.5% higher than its price level last week, which is rather surprising given the surging uncertainty.

Only a few larger-cap alts have performed better during this timeframe, including HYPE, NEAR, SKY, and MNT. In contrast, ADA, CC, BCH, SHIB, WLFI, and DOT are deep in the red.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Weekly Mar 6. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview Weekly Mar 6. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Market Cap: $2.46T | 24H Vol: $108B | BTC Dominance: 56.9%

BTC: $70,000 (+5.6%) | ETH: $2,050(+4.4%) | XRP: $1.38 (+1.4%)

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Kraken Just Became the First Crypto Company With a Fed Master Account — Why It Matters. The veteran US exchange has secured access to a limited-purpose master account from the US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas. Kraken Financial can now directly connect to the Fed’s core payment systems and bypass some of the intermediaries that exist when users are trying to deposit/withdraw.

Kazakhstan May Sell Gold to Fund $350M Crypto Purchase: Report. The governor of the country’s central bank said they plan to invest up to $350 million in cryptocurrencies or high-tech firms related to the industry. They want to use some of their current investments, such as gold and foreign exchange reserves, to do so.

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Ray Dalio Dismisses Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Narrative, Rejects Comparisons to Gold. Despite BTC’s better performance since the tension in the Middle East skyrocketed, billionaire Ray Dalio dismissed its potential to serve as a safe-haven narrative and praised gold once again.

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$1 Billion Floods Back Into Crypto Funds, Snapping Five-Week $4B Bleed. The previous business week snapped a five-week red streak in which investors pulled out around $4 billion from crypto-related funds. Instead, they poured around $1 billion in the span of five business days.

Justin Sun ‘Very Pleased’ With $10 Million SEC Settlement. Nearly three years after he and some of his companies were sued by the US SEC, Justin Sun announced that the claims were dismissed after he reached a $20 million settlement with the regulator.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

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Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

Key takeaways:

  • Bearish sentiment is rising as Bitcoin options professional traders lose confidence that the $66,000 level will hold for long.

  • The exit of David Sacks as the Crypto and AI czar and a lack of a clear US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan added to investors’ doubts.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% decline from the $71,300 level seen on Thursday. This move wiped out over $210 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures and left most call (buy) options worthless during the $18.6 billion monthly expiry. Traders now anticipate a 53% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $66,000 by April 24.

April 24 Bitcoin option prices at Deribit. Source: Deribit

On Friday, the April 24 Bitcoin $66,000 put (sell) options traded at 0.0566 BTC or roughly $3,730. With a 53% implied probability of Bitcoin trading below $66,000 by late April, the mood remains decidedly bearish following the increased uncertainty in the US and Israel-Iran war, pushing traders into a risk-averse mode.

US inflation threats and stalling crypto, Bitcoin legislation

Rising oil prices and a potential $200 billion in extra US military spending led investors to demand higher returns on government bonds and dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest levels since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged to $100 on Friday, while 5-year Treasury yields reached 4.07%, up from 3.72% three weeks prior.

US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. S&P 500 (right). Source: TradingView

Inflationary fear and weaker corporate earnings perspectives alone cannot explain Bitcoin’s 20% underperformance against the S&P 500 in 2026. Other factors are likely at play, including investors’ discomfort over the lack of progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

David Sacks has stepped down from his role as the Trump administration’s crypto and AI czar. While Sacks remains an advisor on the President’s Council on Science & Technology, his departure follows earlier comments that inflated Bitcoin investors’ expectations. Sacks had previously hinted that the US could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without raising taxes.

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Related: US lawmakers publish crypto tax proposal without Bitcoin tax exemption

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% on Friday, showing that put options are trading at a significant premium relative to call instruments. In balanced market conditions, this metric usually ranges between -6% and +6%. The current level indicates a lack of conviction among whales that the $66,000 level will hold. Fear has largely dominated the Bitcoin options market since mid-January.

Bitcoin options expiry favored neutral-to-bearish strategies

Friday’s monthly options expiry at $68,610 proved unfavorable for neutral-to-bullish strategies, as 97% of call options became void. Bears gained the upper hand as put options at $69,000 or higher surpassed $2 billion in open interest. Critically, part of Friday’s downward move reflects a growing unwillingness among traders to maintain Bitcoin exposure over the weekend.

Crypto markets cut risk on Friday due to uncertainty. Source: X/WhalePanda

X social platform user WhalePanda, suggested that the crash in risk markets anticipates President Trump making “another dumb escalating move” after US markets close. Consequently, the current fear seen in the options market could reverse if no major geopolitical events occur before Monday.

During bearish cycles, traders often rush for the exits at the mere sight of any event that could be deemed negative. Investors should not take Bitcoin’s implied odds at face value, as these metrics are heavily impacted by recent news and headlines. However, expectations could shift more favorably if Iran effectively releases a counter-offer to the US peace proposal.