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Bitcoin slides toward $70,000 as on-chain data flags bear market and traders bet Fed holds in April: Asia Morning Briefing

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(CryptoQuant)

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is entering the Asian trading day with on-chain data flashing full bear-market signals, as prices hover in the mid-$70,000s and global equity markets continue to search for direction.

CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical, with its Bull Score Index sitting at zero while bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The report argues the market is no longer digesting gains but operating with a thinner buyer base and tightening liquidity.

(CryptoQuant)
(CryptoQuant)

Glassnode data reinforces that picture, pointing to weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum where selling pressure is not being met with sustained absorption. In effect, the issue is less panic than participation.

Institutional flows underline the shift. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which were net accumulators at this time last year, have flipped into net sellers, creating a year over year demand gap measured in tens of thousands of bitcoin.

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At the same time, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since October, signaling that U.S. investors are not meaningfully stepping in despite lower prices. Historically, sustained bull phases have coincided with strong U.S. spot demand. That engine is currently idling.

Liquidity conditions are also tightening beneath the surface. Stablecoin expansion, which typically fuels risk appetite and trading activity, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023.

(CryptoQuant)

(CryptoQuant)

Longer-term apparent demand growth has likewise collapsed from last year’s highs, suggesting this is not merely leverage being flushed but participation itself fading. Technically, bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with on-chain valuation bands clustering major support in the $70,000 to $60,000 corridor.

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Overlaying this is a macro backdrop where bitcoin is increasingly behaving like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets show traders still leaning heavily toward no change at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting, with only modest expectations for a June rate cut. That hesitancy limits the prospect of near term liquidity relief.

The policy narrative is further complicated by politics. President Donald Trump recently spoke to the press about his Fed nominee Kevin Warsh and said during an interview with NBC News a Fed chair who wanted to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” a remark that tempers earlier optimism about central bank independence.

For Asia, the result is a market defined less by shock than by absence, where bounces remain possible, but conviction remains thin.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin drifted lower into the mid $70,000s after briefly testing support, with rebounds fading quickly as spot demand remained thin and tech stocks stayed under pressure.

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ETH: Ether hovered just above the low $2,000s, struggling to build momentum as broader risk sentiment softened and flows remained muted across major exchanges.

Gold: Gold rebounded toward the $5,000 to $5,100 range, extending a volatile recovery driven by safe-haven buying after U.S.–Iran tensions flared and softer private payroll data offset mixed economic signals while traders reassessed the Fed outlook under Trump’s new chair pick.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower by roughly 0.3% as chip and tech heavyweights tracked Wall Street’s sell-off, though broader Japanese equities remained relatively resilient compared with regional peers.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

  • Binance denies issuing legal threats over insolvency allegations (The Block)
  • Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani steps down after nearly a decade to pursue other areas of tech (CoinDesk)

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Crypto World

SEC Chair Paul Atkins Floats ‘Safe Harbor’ Exemptions for Crypto

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The SEC just gave crypto its biggest regulatory green light in years.

Chair Paul Atkins floated a safe harbor exemption on March 18 that lets crypto projects operate without immediate securities registration. It is a direct reversal of the regulation by enforcement era that suffocated US-based development for years.

Token projects now have a compliant runway to decentralize without the threat of an SEC lawsuit hanging over them. For altcoin valuations, that changes the math entirely.x

Key Takeaways:
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  • Atkins identified four asset categories—digital commodities, collectibles, tools, and payment stablecoins—that are not subject to securities laws.
  • The safe harbor proposal offers a specific grace period for projects to reach decentralization without facing enforcement actions.
  • Formal rulemaking is expected within weeks to replace temporary staff guidance and solidify these protections.

The Safe Harbor Framework Explained

Atkins is cutting through a decade of deliberate ambiguity.

Speaking at a Digital Chamber event, he laid out a framework that separates capital raising from the underlying asset. Four categories are now explicitly excluded from securities jurisdiction. Digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, and payment stablecoins.

For everything that does not fit cleanly into those boxes yet, the safe harbor buys time. Instead of Wells Notices for technically failing the Howey Test during development, projects face purpose-fit disclosures and a transparent path toward decentralization. Build first. Comply as you go.

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Custody rules are also getting overhauled. Broker-dealers will be able to hold both crypto assets and traditional securities simultaneously. The special purpose broker-dealer model that no compliant firm could actually use is effectively dead.

Atkins is trying to bring crypto trading back to national securities exchanges and stabilize a market that has been hammered by legal uncertainty for years. Assets like XRP have historically exploded the moment regulatory clouds clear.

Those clouds are clearing fast.

Market Implications for Issuers and Exchanges

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The immediate winners are US-based token issuers and exchanges.

Coinbase has operated for years under the threat that any listing could trigger a lawsuit. A formal safe harbor removes that existential risk entirely. That clarity is the missing piece institutional product approvals have been waiting for.

The ETF race is the most direct beneficiary. Solana’s push for a spot ETF has faced headwinds specifically because the SEC previously labeled SOL a security. If SOL lands in the digital commodity or digital tool bucket under Atkins’ new classification, the path to approval gets significantly shorter overnight.

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The broader impact is a sector-wide repricing. Token prices have been trading at a discount for years to account for enforcement risk. Remove that discount and valuations adjust upward across the board.

The cost of capital just dropped for the entire industry.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

The post SEC Chair Paul Atkins Floats ‘Safe Harbor’ Exemptions for Crypto appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Crypto World

Crypto Cards Aren’t The Future, But Onchain Credit Is

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Crypto Cards Aren't The Future, But Onchain Credit Is

Opinion by: Vikram Arun, co-founder and CEO of Superform

Crypto cards aren’t the future of payments. They’re a temporary interface for a world that hasn’t fully accepted cryptocurrencies.

They rely on banks as issuers, Visa or Mastercard as gatekeepers, and compliance rules that look exactly like TradFi. 

In most cases, crypto is sold into idle USD, the assets stop earning and every swipe creates a taxable event. 

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That’s not innovation. That’s a debit card with extra steps. 

As digital banks built with blockchain rails scale, crypto cards that behave like debit cards will become obsolete, replaced by systems that treat cards as a thin interface on top of robust onchain credit.

The problem with current crypto cards

To understand why this shift is necessary, consider what happens with current crypto cards. When systems force users to liquidate holdings to spend, they reinforce the paradigm crypto was meant to escape: the false choice between liquidity and ownership. 

Debit-style crypto cards recreate this same trade-off because they require assets to become spendable balances, which halts yield and makes the system structurally negative-sum without subsidies. 

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The IRS treats converting cryptocurrency to fiat currency as a taxable disposal, meaning each coffee purchase triggers capital gains reporting and permanently removes assets from productive use. Card issuers typically earn 1% to 3%, plus a flat fee per transaction, from interchange fees. The infrastructure looks decentralized on the surface, but the dependencies run deep.

Onchain credit fixes these issues

Instead of selling assets to spend, onchain credit enables people to deposit yield-bearing assets, open a credit line and spend against it. When people swipe the card, their debt increases, but their assets keep earning. Nothing is sold unless the person fails to repay. If the position falls below governance-defined parameters, liquidation is deterministic and transparent. This shift toward wallet-native credit shows onchain credit moving from concept to practice. 

In this model, spending doesn’t reduce ownership; it increases debt. Collateral continues to compound until the credit line is repaid or liquidated. There are no forced conversions and no idle balances. Yield-bearing stablecoins currently offer about 5% yield, and DeFi protocols range from 5% to 12%, depending on demand and token incentives.

Users holding these assets in credit accounts keep earning while maintaining spending power.

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Any earning asset can be collateral

This shift from debit to credit fundamentally changes what’s possible. Once credit becomes the primary primitive, the question stops being “what can I spend?” and becomes “what can safely secure my credit?” Eligibility is no longer about whether an asset can be instantly liquidated into cash. It’s about whether it can be priced continuously, risk bounded and unwound deterministically.

This allows productive assets to compete for inclusion. Vault shares, yield-bearing dollars, US Treasury-backed assets and strategy positions are first-class collateral that don’t need to be converted into idle balances. These assets remain productive until liquidation becomes required. When assets keep earning, users don’t have to choose between liquidity and yield, credit lines become cheaper to maintain and protocols earn from management and performance, not interest spreads.

The card is just an interface

The card is not the product. A card is simply a consumer-facing compatibility layer, a thin authorization surface, and not the source of truth. What actually matters is the credit line itself: the ability to price a user’s onchain balance sheet and decide, in real time, whether a spend should be allowed.

Related: Visa crypto card spending soars 525 percent in 2025

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Cards serve merchants and consumers. Once credit is the primitive, however, interfaces become interchangeable. Software and autonomous agents can already request payment programmatically. Whether through cards or APIs, the underlying question is the same: Is this spend authorized against the user’s credit?

If credit logic lives within the card, people remain locked into interchange fee structures, closed payment rails and rigid KYC requirements. If credit lives onchain, cards become optional. Collateral stays in user-controlled accounts, spending is authorized in real time and liquidation is deterministic. 

Managing risk through transparency

Of course, this system raises questions about safety. The most immediate objection is volatility. If collateral can fluctuate in value, what protects people from being liquidated while they are buying groceries?

Governance sets conservative loan-to-value ratios in advance, ensuring users can only borrow against a fraction of their collateral. As collateral earns yield, this buffer grows automatically. Pricing happens continuously, not at arbitrary intervals, and liquidation triggers are transparent from the beginning.

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Traditional credit obscures risk through adjustable interest rates, surprise fees and terms buried in legal documents. Onchain credit makes risk explicit. Governance-set parameters mean the community decides what’s acceptable, not a bank’s risk committee behind closed doors.

The path forward

The answer to managing this risk lies in how the system is governed. Governance controls which assets can be used as collateral, how they’re priced, acceptable risk levels and when liquidations occur. People opt in by depositing collateral, and from that point on, the protocol enforces the rules without blanket access to funds or quietly changed parameters.

Crypto cards will not disappear because they failed. They will disappear because they succeeded by bridging crypto into a world that still runs on legacy rails. As wallets improve and crypto-native payments become standard, spending won’t require banks, issuers or card networks at all. Interfaces will change. Payment rails will evolve. But onchain credit will remain: the ability to spend without selling, to keep assets productive and to enforce risk transparently.

Cards are an interface. Credit is the system.

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Opinion by: Vikram Arun, co-founder and CEO of Superform.