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Bitcoin Whales Drive V-Shaped Accumulation, Offset 230K BTC Sell-off

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) whale activity has begun signaling a shift back toward the stability seen before the late-2025 market wobble. In recent months, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have rebuilt their collective balance, pushing the total amount held by this cohort to 3.09 million BTC from 2.86 million BTC on Dec. 10, 2025. That 230,000-BTC increase essentially restores position levels observed prior to the October 2025 market dip. Meanwhile, exchange data show whale-related outflows averaging about 3.5% of the total BTC held on exchanges over a 30-day window—the strongest such rate since late 2024—suggesting a continued shift of coins away from spot venues.

Across on-chain data, the broader pattern points to an ongoing reallocation among major holders. CryptoQuant analysis shows that the large wallet segment has reaccumulated aggressively after a period of net selling, with roughly 98,000 BTC added to whale reserves over the past 30 days. The market narrative since August 2025 has been defined by a distribution phase, triggered after BTC touched new highs around the $124,000 level, with many observers noting that a sustained rally remained challenging in the face of shifting risk sentiment. This backdrop helps explain why the current accumulation cycle by whales is notable, even as price action remains sensitive to macro cues and shifting liquidity conditions.

CryptoQuant spot market data underscores a resilience in large-order activity. Through 2026, the average BTC order size has oscillated between roughly 950 BTC and 1,100 BTC, marking the most sustained period of sizable retail and institutional orders since September 2024. This pattern aligns with the return of liquidity into the market and a reopening of appetite among buyers willing to place larger blocks, even as price levels teeter between regions of resistance and support. A broader look at the February–March 2025 correction showed a similar appetite for larger orders, though the cadence of big-ticket purchases varied with retail participation and the timing of institutional inflows.

Total BTC balance of large holders (1k-10k). Source: CryptoQuant

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BTC whale reserves return to pre-October peak

Analysts at CryptoQuant point to a notable reversal in the drawdown of whale reserves, with the 30-day window marking a substantial uptick in accumulation. The net shift is most visible in the 98,000 BTC added to the whale category over the most recent month, reversing earlier declines and signaling renewed appetite among larger holders. This reaccumulation comes as part of a broader dynamic in which a growing portion of BTC activity originates from wallets with medium-to-large holdings, while smaller retail activity continues to surface in bursts. The sequential build-up in whale balances is consistent with a risk-off tilt in some segments of the market, even as other indicators suggest a more mixed mood among traders and institutions alike.

On the exchange side, inflows and outflows tell a nuanced story. CryptoQuant tracks roughly $8.24 billion in whale BTC flows moving to Binance over the past 30 days, a reading that marks a 14-month high and underscores how large players continue to reposition assets within major venues. At the same time, retail flows have climbed to about $11.91 billion in the same window, with the retail-to-whale ratio reported at 1.45—indicating that smaller participants remain active, albeit with the larger-ticket trades increasingly concentrated among the whale segment. This juxtaposition helps explain why net balances on exchanges have remained relatively stable despite higher gross inflows, as outbound transfers offset incoming liquidity.

Glassnode data reinforce the idea that the on-chain ecosystem is undergoing a rebalancing rather than a straightforward surge in exchange activity. The latest figures show gross exchange whale withdrawals averaging 3.5% of total exchange-held BTC supply over a 30-day period—an aggressive pace not seen since November 2024. If the withdrawal flow persists, it could imply a continued willingness among whales to migrate BTC off exchanges, potentially reducing the available supply for immediate selling pressure. Based on current exchange balances, this translates to a rough net withdrawal range of 60,000–100,000 BTC in the past month, offering a broader sense of the scale involved in the ongoing shift between custody models and trading venues.

Related: “Resilient” Bitcoin holders defend BTC, but bear floor sits 20% lower: Glassnode

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In parallel, the market continues to parse larger macro and crypto-specific signals. The on-chain narrative remains complex: while whale accumulation signals confidence among major holders, the overall price tempo depends on a confluence of liquidity availability, risk appetite, and regulatory developments. The balance between inflows to exchanges and outflows from them appears to be moderating, with indicators suggesting that the market could continue to experience periods of consolidation as participants assess whether the current supply dynamics translate into sustained price support or whether macro headwinds reassert themselves. The dynamic is a reminder that liquidity conditions in crypto markets remain a key driver of price discovery, even as on-chain behavior points to a more resilient posture among large holders.

Related: Quantum fears aren’t behind Bitcoin’s 46% drop, says developer

Key takeaways

  • Whale holdings of 1,000–10,000 BTC climbed to 3.09 million BTC, up from 2.86 million BTC on Dec. 10, 2025, restoring levels seen before the October 2025 market wobble.
  • The three-month accumulation included a net addition of about 230,000 BTC, signaling renewed demand from medium-to-large holders.
  • Over the last 30 days, whale reserves reversed earlier declines with a gain of roughly 98,000 BTC, suggesting renewed on-chain interest.
  • BTC spot market data shows large-average order sizes in 2026, ranging from 950 to 1,100 BTC, the strongest stretch of meaningful blocks since late-2024.
  • Binance rail for whale flows reached about $8.24 billion in 30 days, a 14-month high, while retail flows were about $11.91 billion with a retail-to-whale ratio of 1.45.
  • Glassnode reports a 3.5% average withdrawal rate of exchange-held BTC from whales over 30 days, indicating net exchange balances may remain relatively stable despite rising inflows.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The observed on-chain activity unfolds against ongoing liquidity shifts and evolving risk sentiment in crypto markets, with whales reaccumulating as retail participation remains active and exchange balances show a mix of inflows and offsetting withdrawals.

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Why it matters

The reaccumulation by larger Bitcoin holders suggests an orientation toward longer-term custody and potential readiness to absorb buying pressure if market conditions improve. While price action remains contingent on macro signals and liquidity, the on-chain readouts point to a market that is gradually shifting from a phase of dispersion toward a more balanced posture where large entities are rebuilding positions while smaller players continue to transact in smaller blocks.

For traders, the pattern underscores the importance of watching cross-venue flows and the balance between inflows to exchanges and outbound movements. If whales keep moving BTC off exchanges or into more secure custody, the available supply for immediate selling could decline, potentially reducing near-term downside risk in the event of broader market stress. Conversely, sustained large-order activity on the buy side could provide a floor under price discovery, especially if macro catalysts align with a pickup in risk appetite among institutional players.

For developers and investors, the data emphasize the value of analyzing on-chain signals in conjunction with exchange flows and the behavior of different holder cohorts. The evolving distribution among whales, retail participants, and exchange inventories offers a nuanced view of the crypto liquidity landscape and the strategies that might shape price action in the coming months.

What to watch next

  • Monitor whether the total balance of large holders (1k–10k BTC) continues to approach or exceed 3.1 million BTC in the coming weeks.
  • Track net exchange balances to see if withdrawals persist or if inflows begin to outpace outflows again.
  • Observe Binance inflows and outflows for whale BTC to gauge where large holders are moving portions of their stock and whether this signals shifting custody preferences.
  • Watch the 30-day moving averages of large-order activity to confirm whether the 950–1,100 BTC order-size trend persists beyond 2026.
  • Keep an eye on macro and regulatory developments that could influence risk appetite and liquidity across crypto markets.

Sources & verification

  • CryptoQuant quicktake: Whales reaccumulate everything they sold since October (https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/69983917c876a02133a04bc2-Whales-reaccumulate-everything-they-sold-since-October)
  • CryptoQuant quicktake: 82B in Whale BTC Flows to Binance (https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/69982730312550148f4ec237-82B-in-Whale-BTC-Flows-to-Binance-creating-a-14-Month-High)
  • CryptoQuant: BTC spot average order size (https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/market-indicator/spot-average-order)
  • Glassnode data on exchange withdrawals (as cited in the article)
  • Cointelegraph: Related piece on resilient bitcoin holders and market dynamics (https://cointelegraph.com/news/resilient-bitcoin-holders-defend-btc-but-bear-floor-sits-20-lower-glassnode)

What to watch next

  • 3–5 forward-looking checks (dates, filings, unlocks, governance votes, product launches, regulatory steps) ONLY if consistent with the source.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

Polymarket acquires prediction market API startup Dome

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Polymarket acquires prediction market API startup Dome

Polymarket has acquired Dome, a Y Combinator-backed startup that is building a unified API solution for developers to access and build across multiple prediction market platforms.

Summary

  • Polymarket has acquired Y Combinator-backed startup Dome.
  • Dome offers a unified API for cross-platform prediction market access.
  • It has raised $500,000 from Y Combinator and $4.7 million in seed funding.

The acquisition was confirmed by both companies in a Feb. 19 post on X, though neither side shared details about Dome’s future roadmap within Polymarket or how the team will be integrated. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

According to details from Y Combinator, Dome was part of its Fall 2025 cohort and is developing a unified API for prediction markets through a single integration layer, where “developers can access live and historical data.”

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“Dome makes it simple to trade, embed market data into products, and deploy strategies across multiple platforms through one interface,” it said.

Dome raised $500,000 from Y Combinator and secured a further $4.7 million in seed funding, according to details shared on the X profile of co-founder Kunal Roy, who, alongside Kurush Dubash, previously served as founding engineers at Alchemy.

“We’re obsessed with prediction markets and want to have the biggest impact in the space. There’s no better place to do that than Polymarket.” Dubash wrote on X.

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Besides QCEX, a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse licensed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which Polymarket acquired in a bid to re-enter the country, Dome marks the company’s first official acquisition focused on developer infrastructure.

Since it was greenlighted by the commission to operate an intermediated trading platform, Polymarket has secured multiple major partnerships with media brands like Yahoo Finance and Google Finance, alongside sports organizations such as Major League Soccer and the National Hockey League.

Last month, the company partnered with Parcl to launch a prediction market tied to real estate trends. It has also expanded onto the Solana blockchain through an integration with Jupiter and was recently added to the MetaMask mobile app, widening its retail distribution.

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Bitcoin May See Upside After AI Stocks Become ‘Silly Big’

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, AI

Bitcoin’s next major leg up could hinge on artificial intelligence stocks becoming excessively overvalued in the eyes of investors, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.

“It could be that the AI stocks eventually just peak, they get so silly big that they can’t get realistically much higher,” Alden told Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Thursday.

When an asset’s price rises to a level where further gains are harder to justify, capital often moves into other opportunities with more potential upside.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, AI
Lyn Alden spoke to Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast. Source: Natalie Brunell/YouTube

With Bitcoin (BTC) down almost 46% from its October all-time high of $126,100, Alden suggests it could be a beneficiary of that rotation.

Nvidia may be the “most important stock” in US, says exec

Some financial analysts are questioning whether the largest AI stocks will keep up their momentum in 2026. Albion Financial Group chief investment officer Jason Ware recently told Fox Business that he expects GPU chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), the largest company on the Nasdaq stock exchange by market capitalization, to have “another great quarter,” but asked whether it will “be good enough.”

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“We all know they are the most concentrated, obvious winner in the AI build out. Can that growth continue in a way that supports the stock moving higher?”

Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock price is up 35.48% over the past 12 months, according to Google Finance, and Ware said that it is “probably the most important company and most important stock in America in the market.” 

The rise of investor interest in AI means that Bitcoin is now “competing for capital” in a way it never has before, Bitcoin developer Mark Carallo said on Thursday.

Bitcoin only needs a “marginal amount” of new demand

However, Alden said Bitcoin wouldn’t need a significant wave of capital to move higher. “It only takes a marginal amount of new demand to come in,” Alden said, adding that long-term holders essentially “put the floor in” as short-term traders rotate out.