Bitcoin’s $100K Level Emerges as Key Condition for Crypto Market Trend Reversal

TLDR:

• Bitcoin must reclaim $100K cost basis of 6-12 month holders to confirm bullish trend structure shift
• Trading below this threshold historically maintains bearish momentum and elevates downside risk levels
• DeMark 13 exhaustion signal and Trend Chameleon flip indicate selling pressure depletion and regime shift
• Current macro setup mirrors 2021 conditions with historical median 90-day returns near 9.6% recorded

A single threshold now determines whether the cryptocurrency market can reverse its recent bearish structure and enter sustained bullish territory. 

Bitcoin must reclaim the cost basis of coins that last moved six to twelve months ago, currently positioned near $100,000. 

This level represents the critical condition that historically separates downtrends from uptrends, with market analysts closely monitoring price action around this pivotal marker.

The $100K Cost Basis Defines Market Direction

The 6-12 month holder cost basis functions as the primary condition for any meaningful trend reversal. Trading below this level keeps the market structure bearish and maintains elevated downside risk. 

Historical patterns confirm that sustained price action beneath this threshold reinforces the continuation of negative trends. Markets rarely achieve bullish momentum without first breaking through this barrier.

Reclaiming this cost basis triggers a fundamental shift in market dynamics. The transition typically marks the end of distribution phases and signals the beginning of accumulation. 

Crypto analyst Dan emphasizes that the broader market cannot flip bullish until Bitcoin decisively crosses above this singular level. The condition remains unfulfilled as long as price action stays compressed below $100,000.

After weeks of sideways consolidation, Bitcoin shows preliminary signs of attempting to meet this reversal condition. 

The market will soon determine whether enough buying pressure exists to push through resistance. Failure to satisfy this condition would confirm the downtrend remains intact and opens risk for further declines.

Multiple Indicators Support Reversal Condition Fulfillment

Technical analysis from Jamie Coutts CMT reveals converging signals that increase the probability of meeting the reversal condition. 

A DeMark 13 exhaustion signal printed on December 31, indicating selling pressure has depleted. The Trend Chameleon indicator recently flipped bullish, confirming a potential regime change that supports the key condition being met.

Liquidity conditions continue expanding while volatility remains low and gradually increases. Coutts identifies this as the most constructive macro backdrop since 2021 for satisfying bullish reversal conditions. 

Historical periods with similar setups delivered median returns near 9.6% over 90 days and 26% over 180 days. Win rates during comparable conditions ranged between 68% and 81%, with no drawdowns exceeding 50%.

Risk parameters remain defined around the reversal condition. A Trend Chameleon reversal or drop toward $80,000 would indicate failure to meet the key threshold. 

Volume overhang caps immediate upside potential near $110,000 even if the condition is satisfied. The current setup shows exhaustion, trend reversal confirmation, and favorable liquidity supporting the fulfillment of this critical market condition.